Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

Effect of price and in-store promotion on sales: a study of distinct regions in an emerging market

Increasing competition caused by globalization, high growth of some emerging markets and stagnation of developed economies motivate Consumer Packaged Goods (CPGs) manufacturers to drive their attention to emerging markets. These companies are expected to adapt their marketing activities to the particularities of these markets in order to succeed. In a country classified as emerging market, regions are not alike and some contrasts can be identified. In addition, divergences of marketing variables effect can also be observed in the different retail formats. The retail formats in emerging markets can be segregated in chain self-service and traditional full-service. Thus, understanding the effectiveness of marketing mix not only in country aggregated level data can be an important contribution. Inasmuch as companies aim to generate profits from emerging markets, price is an important marketing variable in the process of creating competitive advantage. Along with price, promotional variables such as in-store displays and price cut are often viewed as temporary incentives to increase short-term sales. Managers defend the usage of promotions as being the most reliable and fastest manner to increase sales and then short-term profits. However, some authors alert about sales promotions disadvantages; mainly in the long-term. This study investigates the effect of price and in-store promotions on sales volume in different regions within an emerging market. The database used is at SKU level for juice, being segregated in the Brazilian northeast and southeast regions and corresponding to the period from January 2011 to January 2013. The methodological approach is descriptive quantitative involving validation tests, application of multivariate and temporal series analysis method. The Vector-Autoregressive (VAR) model was used to perform the analysis. Results suggest similar price sensitivity in the northeast and southeast region and greater in-store promotion sensitivity in the northeast. Price reductions show negative results in the long-term (persistent sales in six months) and in-store promotion, positive results. In-store promotion shows no significant influence on sales in chain self-service stores while price demonstrates no relevant impact on sales in traditional full-service stores. Hence, this study contributes to the business environment for companies wishing to manage price and sales promotions for consumer brands in regions with different features within an emerging market. As a theoretical contribution, this study fills an academic gap providing a dedicated price and sales promotion study to contrast regions in an emerging market.

Projeto Prevenir: uma pesquisa acerca das mudanças no perfil das infecções por DST/AIDS, com a perspectiva de detectar pontos vulneráveis da prevenção

Rio Grande do Norte is among the Brazilian States where the tourism and sexual violence increasingly grow in the country, occupying 4th place in 2004. Associated to this fact, it comes the problematic one of the contamination of the women by Sexually Transmitted Disease (STD). Studies in Brazil have presented a considerable increase of the STDs, caused through lack of suitable protection in the sexual relationships. Due to the biological and psychosocial vulnerability, besides failures or inconsistencies in the condom use associated to the raised taxes of sexual activity with different partners, the STDs constitute the main risk of health. Many difficulties are found by the confrontation of this problem. In this context, this project had as aim to evaluate the vulnerability of this population of sexually active women in Natal-RN Ponta Negra neighbourhood to the infections by STDs, such as, Candida sp., Vaginoses Bacterial, Trichomonas Vaginalis and Chlamydia sp., arisen with the explosion of the sex market, showing a current statistical panorama. It was possible to detect vulnerable points in prevention through patient anamnesis, where the study it showed: high number of partners (8,3% with more than five), low age of first relationship and not the use of condoms (31,8% sometimes use and 45,8% had not used in the first relationship). Already consolidated by the preventive cytopathologic examination, these data were strengthened by high incidence of causing agents of STDs (58,6%). In this way, it is clear that the sexuality must to be thought on the context of the deep economic and socio-cultural transformations in which pass societies, and mainly the ones concerning to the sexuality exercise and to the sex market. With the profile change of the infections, new demands are placed in relation to the risk factors. Therefore, it can be concluded that the prevention vulnerable points detected as more important had been the deficiency in self-perception and wareness of the risk existence among the studied women

A proposal for unitary taxes on the profits of transnational corporations

Includes bibliography

Differential fuel taxes and their effects on automobile demand

Includes bibliography

Derechos aduaneros vigentes en los países centroamericanos sobre las principales materias primas y productos terminados de ácidos alquilaril sulfónicos, alquilaril sulfonatos y otras sales de ácidos de alquilaril sulfónicos y lustradores-limpiadores para zapatos

Incluye Bibliografía

Istmo Centroamericano: la regulación de la distribución de energía eléctrica en los países con empresas privadas. Los casos de El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua y Panamá

Incluye Bibliografía

O uso da Lei Rouanet como ferramenta produtiva em um plano de comunicação

The Rouanet law is a tax incentive law that allows companies to invest up to 4% of their taxes - based on actual profit - in sponsoring cultural projects previously approved by the Ministry of Culture. By sponsoring these projects, companies can have their name attached to them and, consequently, strengthening their brand and increase its visibility in the market. Whereas this project is aligned to the company vision, its image will be strengthened and the sales will increase. Large companies use the Rouanet Law to sponsor cultural events and have very strong names in the Brazilian market, perhaps worldwide. Examples: Petrobras, Banco do Brasil, Banco Bradesco, BNDES, Usiminas, Vale, among others. The Public Relations professional, who’s responsible for internal and external communication of a company, can use it as a differential of his work, expanding the company's profits with minimum investments, aligning the company's vision to actual practices and using the sponsorship as an agent capable of strengthen its social responsibility and, due to that, to increase the trust of its target audience. This study will address the theoretical and practical aspects of the Rouanet Law and of the public relations professionals, beyond mentioning examples on the subject, with special attention to Petrobras, the largest sponsor of cultural projects in Brazil. The greatest problem of the Rouanet Law is the fact that its sponsored projects are mostly concentrated in the Southeast, specifically in the Rio - São Paulo region. The more popular the Act become, for most places it will spread and Brazil may, after some time, become a world reference in the Cultural point

Diretrizes para o uso da gestão de design a partir de um diagnóstico setorial das microrregiões de Araçatuba e Birigui do Estado de São Paulo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

EC94-852 Cash Flow Planning Form

This extension circular covers the following areas of a cash flow planning form: Beginning Cash Balance, Operating Sales (crop and hay, market livestock, livestock product, custom work); Capital Sales (breeding livestock, machinery and equipment); Personal Income (wages, interest); Operating Expenses (car/truck, chemicals, conservation, custom hire, feed purchased, fertilizers and lime, freight and trucking, gasoline, fuel and oil, insurance, labor hired, rents and leases, repairs and maintenance, seeds and plants, storage, warehousing, supplies, taxes, utilities, veterinary, breeding fees and medicine, feeder livestock); Capital Purchases (breeding livestock, machinery and equipment, family living withdrawals, personal investments, income and social security, term loan payments); Net Cash Available (operating loan borrowings, operating loan payments); and Ending Operating Loan Balance. Along with the Cash Flow Planning Form is a Projected Income Statement Form which covers Projected Business Income (operating sales, breeding livestock, estimated cash income adjustments, estimated gross revenues, estimated value of production); Project Business Expenses (cash operating, esimated operating, prepaid and supplies, cash investment in growing crops, accounts payable); Projected Net Income Summary (estimated net income from operations, estimated net business income, estimated net income after taxes, estimated earned net worth change); and a Physical Inventory Flows Worksheet.

A New Method to Predict the Epidemiology of Fungal Keratitis by Monitoring the Sales Distribution of Antifungal Eye Drops in Brazil

Purpose: Fungi are a major cause of keratitis, although few medications are licensed for their treatment. The aim of this study is to observe the variation in commercialisation of antifungal eye drops, and to predict the seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis in Brazil. Methods: Data from a retrospective study of antifungal eye drops sales from the only pharmaceutical ophthalmologic laboratory, authorized to dispense them in Brazil (Opthalmos) were gathered. These data were correlated with geographic and seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis in Brazil between July 2002 and June 2008. Results: A total of 26,087 antifungal eye drop units were sold, with a mean of 2.3 per patient. There was significant variation in antifungal sales during the year (p < 0.01). A linear regression model displayed a significant association between reduced relative humidity and antifungal drug sales (R-2 = 0.17, p < 0.01). Conclusions: Antifungal eye drops sales suggest that there is a seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis. A possible interpretation is that the third quarter of the year (a period when the climate is drier), when agricultural activity is more intense in Brazil, suggests a correlation with a higher incidence of fungal keratitis. A similar model could be applied to other diseases, that are managed with unique, or few, and monitorable medications to predict epidemiological aspects.

Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes in Brazil

Objectives. We investigated whether taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) would improve the diets of households in Brazil. Methods. We used household food consumption data that the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics collected in 2002-2003 from a nationally representative sample of 48470 Brazilian households. The consumption of SSBs is expressed as the total SSB calories consumed and as the SSB percentage of the total calories purchased. We investigated price elasticity with regression models, controlling for demographic variables, income, and prices of all other foods and drinks. Results. Increases in the price of SSBs led to reductions in consumption. A 1.00% increase in the price of SSBs led to a 0.85% reduction of SSB calories consumed (1.03% reduction for the poor and 0.63% for the nonpoor). Increased income had a positive effect on SSB consumption, but the effect was less than half the size of the price elasticity (0.41% increase in SSB calories consumed for every 1.00% increase in income). Conclusions. High SSB price elasticity in Brazil indicates that a tax on purchased weight or volume would lead to reductions in SSB consumption. (Am J Public Health. 2012;102:178-183. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2011.300313)