912 resultados para Sales forecasting


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Creativitat i subversió en les reescriptures de Joan Sales se centra en la figura de l’editor i novel•lista Joan Sales (1912-1983) i pretén ressituar l’autor d’Incerta glòria dins del panorama literari català a partir d’una diversificació dels punts de mira des dels quals esdevé possible realitzar-ne un estudi. Com a base, s’han utilitzat les teories traductològiques de finals del segle XX, elaborades per autors com André Lefevere i Susan Bassnett, que situen la traducció, l’edició, l’adaptació, la crítica literària i la historiografia dins del terreny de la reescriptura creativa i atorguen un poder subversiu a totes aquestes activitats. Així, doncs, s’ha intentat modificar la tendència que, històricament, havia dut a considerar de manera negativa les reescriptures de Sales. Sota el paraigua teòric de la reescriptura, les manipulacions, els canvis i les intervencions esdevenen una eina que contribueix a l’evolució literària d’una cultura.

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La Unidad Educativa “San Francisco de Sales” de Alausí regentada por las Hermanas Oblatas tiene un reconocido historial en la vida del pueblo de Alausí, enclavado en el perfil Andino y fiel testigo del encuentro de dos culturas diferentes, la Europea y la Ecuatoriana, relacionadas con la región central de nuestro país. La Iglesia en aquel tiempo, asumió diversidad de tareas, la mayor parte de ellas orientadas hacia la cultura y la educación. Las políticas educativas, siempre asociadas al perfil de los gobiernos que se iban sucediendo uno tras otro, a lo largo del siglo diecinueve, poco o ningún favor hicieron a esta estratégica gestión. Es en 1895, que el país comienza a transitar por una corriente educativa sin influencias dogmáticas. Este es el caso de las dos Instituciones regentadas por la Congregación de las hermanas Oblatas de San Francisco de Sales, la escuela Isidro Narváez de niños indígenas y la Unidad Educativa San Francisco de Sales de niños y jóvenes mestizos, que hoy al compartir la propuesta de inclusión educativa, los directivos han comenzado la fusión, y han diseñado alternativas que benefician y fortalecen el aprendizaje.

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A new method of clear-air turbulence (CAT) forecasting based on the Lighthill–Ford theory of spontaneous imbalance and emission of inertia–gravity waves has been derived and applied on episodic and seasonal time scales. A scale analysis of this shallow-water theory for midlatitude synoptic-scale flows identifies advection of relative vorticity as the leading-order source term. Examination of leading- and second-order terms elucidates previous, more empirically inspired CAT forecast diagnostics. Application of the Lighthill–Ford theory to the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys CAT outbreak of 9 March 2006 results in good agreement with pilot reports of turbulence. Application of Lighthill–Ford theory to CAT forecasting for the 3 November 2005–26 March 2006 period using 1-h forecasts of the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) 2 1500 UTC model run leads to superior forecasts compared to the current operational version of the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG1) algorithm, the most skillful operational CAT forecasting method in existence. The results suggest that major improvements in CAT forecasting could result if the methods presented herein become operational.

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Accurate seasonal forecasts rely on the presence of low frequency, predictable signals in the climate system which have a sufficiently well understood and significant impact on the atmospheric circulation. In the Northern European region, signals associated with seasonal scale variability such as ENSO, North Atlantic SST anomalies and the North Atlantic Oscillation have not yet proven sufficient to enable satisfactorily skilful dynamical seasonal forecasts. The winter-time circulations of the stratosphere and troposphere are highly coupled. It is therefore possible that additional seasonal forecasting skill may be gained by including a realistic stratosphere in models. In this study we assess the ability of five seasonal forecasting models to simulate the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical winter-time stratospheric circulation. Our results show that all of the models have a polar night jet which is too weak and displaced southward compared to re-analysis data. It is shown that the models underestimate the number, magnitude and duration of periods of anomalous stratospheric circulation. Despite the poor representation of the general circulation of the stratosphere, the results indicate that there may be a detectable tropospheric response following anomalous circulation events in the stratosphere. However, the models fail to exhibit any predictability in their forecasts. These results highlight some of the deficiencies of current seasonal forecasting models with a poorly resolved stratosphere. The combination of these results with other recent studies which show a tropospheric response to stratospheric variability, demonstrates a real prospect for improving the skill of seasonal forecasts.

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A seasonal forecasting system that is capable of skilfully predicting rainfall totals on a regional scale would be of great value to Ethiopia. Here, we describe how a statistical model can exploit the teleconnections described in part 1 of this pair of papers to develop such a system. We show that, in most cases, the predictors selected objectively by the statistical model can be interpreted in the light of physical teleconnections with Ethiopian rainfall, and discuss why, in some cases, unexpected regions are chosen as predictors. We show that the forecast has skill in all parts of Ethiopia, and argue that this method could provide the basis of an operational seasonal forecasting system for Ethiopia.