Characteristics and variability of storm tracks in the north Pacific, Bering Sea, and Alaska

The North Pacific and Bering Sea regions represent loci of cyclogenesis and storm track activity. In this paper climatological properties of extratropical storms in the North Pacific/Bering Sea are presented based upon aggregate statistics of individual storm tracks calculated by means of a feature-tracking algorithm run using NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data from 1948/49 to 2008, provided by the NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory and the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Climate Diagnostics Center. Storm identification is based on the 850-hPa relative vorticity field (ζ) instead of the often-used mean sea level pressure; ζ is a prognostic field, a good indicator of synoptic-scale dynamics, and is directly related to the wind speed. Emphasis extends beyond winter to provide detailed consideration of all seasons. Results show that the interseasonal variability is not as large during the spring and autumn seasons. Most of the storm variables—genesis, intensity, track density—exhibited a maxima pattern that was oriented along a zonal axis. From season to season this axis underwent a north–south shift and, in some cases, a rotation to the northeast. This was determined to be a result of zonal heating variations and midtropospheric moisture patterns. Barotropic processes have an influence in shaping the downstream end of storm tracks and, together with the blocking influence of the coastal orography of northwest North America, result in high lysis concentrations, effectively making the Gulf of Alaska the “graveyard” of Pacific storms. Summer storms tended to be longest in duration. Temporal trends tended to be weak over the study area. SST did not emerge as a major cyclogenesis control in the Gulf of Alaska.

The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation that originates in the tropical Pacific region and affects ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide. Under the influence of global warming, the mean climate of the Pacific region will probably undergo significant changes. The tropical easterly trade winds are expected to weaken; surface ocean temperatures are expected to warm fastest near the equator and more slowly farther away; the equatorial thermocline that marks the transition between the wind-mixed upper ocean and deeper layers is expected to shoal; and the temperature gradients across the thermocline are expected to become steeper. Year-to-year ENSO variability is controlled by a delicate balance of amplifying and damping feedbacks, and one or more of the physical processes that are responsible for determining the characteristics of ENSO will probably be modified by climate change. Therefore, despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of climate change on many of the processes that contribute to El Niño variability, it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency of events will change.

A model study of oceanic mechanisms affecting Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature during the 1997-98 El Niño

In this study, the processes affecting sea surface temperature variability over the 1992–98 period, encompassing the very strong 1997–98 El Niño event, are analyzed. A tropical Pacific Ocean general circulation model, forced by a combination of weekly ERS1–2 and TAO wind stresses, and climatological heat and freshwater fluxes, is first validated against observations. The model reproduces the main features of the tropical Pacific mean state, despite a weaker than observed thermal stratification, a 0.1 m s−1 too strong (weak) South Equatorial Current (North Equatorial Countercurrent), and a slight underestimate of the Equatorial Undercurrent. Good agreement is found between the model dynamic height and TOPEX/Poseidon sea level variability, with correlation/rms differences of 0.80/4.7 cm on average in the 10°N–10°S band. The model sea surface temperature variability is a bit weak, but reproduces the main features of interannual variability during the 1992–98 period. The model compares well with the TAO current variability at the equator, with correlation/rms differences of 0.81/0.23 m s−1 for surface currents. The model therefore reproduces well the observed interannual variability, with wind stress as the only interannually varying forcing. This good agreement with observations provides confidence in the comprehensive three-dimensional circulation and thermal structure of the model. A close examination of mixed layer heat balance is thus undertaken, contrasting the mean seasonal cycle of the 1993–96 period and the 1997–98 El Niño. In the eastern Pacific, cooling by exchanges with the subsurface (vertical advection, mixing, and entrainment), the atmospheric forcing, and the eddies (mainly the tropical instability waves) are the three main contributors to the heat budget. In the central–western Pacific, the zonal advection by low-frequency currents becomes the main contributor. Westerly wind bursts (in December 1996 and March and June 1997) were found to play a decisive role in the onset of the 1997–98 El Niño. They contributed to the early warming in the eastern Pacific because the downwelling Kelvin waves that they excited diminished subsurface cooling there. But it is mainly through eastward advection of the warm pool that they generated temperature anomalies in the central Pacific. The end of El Niño can be linked to the large-scale easterly anomalies that developed in the western Pacific and spread eastward, from the end of 1997 onward. In the far-western Pacific, because of the shallower than normal thermocline, these easterlies cooled the SST by vertical processes. In the central Pacific, easterlies pushed the warm pool back to the west. In the east, they led to a shallower thermocline, which ultimately allowed subsurface cooling to resume and to quickly cool the surface layer.

Identifying seed uptake pathways: The spread of Agya amoah rice cultivar in southwestern Ghana

A study was carried out to identify the factors that contributed to the natural spread and uptake of a rainfed rice variety named Agya Amoah in the Western Region of Ghana after introduction of a small amount (0.5 kg) of seed in 1987 by a small-scale farmer. Fifteen years after its introduction over 73% of rice farmers had grown the variety in the Western Region. Initial awareness of the variety was created by information provided mainly by friends, seeing the variety grown in fields and from relatives. Seed for initial planting of the variety was purchased from other farmers by 67% of farmers, but in the most recent season 77% of farmers used their own saved seed. Annual incremental income per household from the replacement of the previously most widely grown variety with Agya Amoah was estimated to be US $282. The results show that informal systems can result in relatively fast spread and extensive uptake. Local seed systems need to be understood to design appropriate activities that are likely to lead to rapid spread and equitable distribution of introduced varieties, irrespective of characteristics such as wealth and kin.

Identifying important endemic areas using ecoregions: birds and mammals in the Indo-Pacific

Concentrations of large numbers of endemic species have been singled out in prioritization exercises as significant areas for global biodiversity conservation. This paper describes bird and mammal endemicity in Indo-Pacific ecoregions. An ecoregion is a relatively large unit of land or water that contains a distinct assemblage of natural communities. We prioritize 133 ecoregions according to their levels of endemicity, and explain how variables such as biome type, whether the ecoregion is on an island or continental mass, montane or non-montane, correlate with the proportion of the total species assemblage that are endemic. Following an exploratory principal components analysis we classify all ecoregions according to the relationship between numbers of endemics and overall species richness. Endemicity is negatively correlated with species richness. We show that plotting the logit transformation of the endemicity of birds and mammals against log of species richness is a more effective and useful way of identifying important ecoregions than simply ordering ecoregions by the proportion of endemic species, or any other single measure. The plot, divided into 16 regions corresponding to the quartiles of the two variables, was used to identify ecoregions of high conservation value. These are the ecoregions with the highest endemicity and lowest species richness. Further analysis shows that island and montane ecoregions, regardless of their biome type, are by far the most important for endemic species.

Influence of gut morphology on passive transport of freshwater bryozoans by waterfowl in Donana (southwestern Spain)

Waterbirds have been proposed as important vectors for the passive dispersal of those aquatic invertebrates and plants that lack a capacity for active dispersal between isolated water bodies. We analysed the frequency of internal transport of bryozoan propagules (statoblasts) by waterbirds in Donana, Spain, by examining their presence in the intestines and ceca of dead birds and analysing the role of different aspects of gut characteristics in explaining variation in the presence/absence and abundance of statoblasts. Of the 228 samples examined, 7.9% presented intact statoblasts of Plumatella fungosa (Pallas, 1768), Plumatella emarginata Allman, 1844, and two unidentified Plumatella species. For a given bird species, individuals with heavier gizzards and shorter ceca had a lower incidence and abundance of statoblasts in the lower gut. Grit mass and intestine length were unrelated to the presence or abundance of statoblasts. Our results suggest that waterbirds frequently transport bryozoans on a local scale, with lighter gizzards and longer ceca favouring such transport. Lighter gizzards are likely to destroy fewer propagules before they reach the lower gut. Species and individuals with longer ceca are particularly good candidates for long-distance dispersal of bryozoans, given the longer passage time of propagules that enter the ceca.

Crops and cultures in the Pacific: new data and new techniques for the investigation of old questions

Fifty years ago Carl Sauer suggested, controversially and on the basis of theory rather than evidence, that Southeast Asia was the source area for agriculture throughout the Old World, including the Pacific. Since then, the archaeobotanical record (macroscopic and microscopic) from the Pacific islands has increased, leading to suggestions, also still controversial, that Melanesia was a center of origin of agriculture independent of South-east Asia, based on tree fruits and nuts and vegetatively propagated starchy staples. Such crops generally lack morphological markers of domestication, so exploitation, cultivation and domestication cannot easily be distinguished in the archaeological record. Molecular studies involving techniques such as chromosome painting, DNA fingerprinting and DNA sequencing, can potentially complement the archaeological record by suggesting where species which were spread through the Pacific by man originated and by what routes they attained their present distributions. A combination of archaeobotanical and molecular studies should therefore eventually enable the rival claims of Melanesia versus South-east Asia as independent centers of invention of agriculture to be assessed.

Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate demonstrated by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES

The Asian monsoon system, including the western North Pacific (WNP), East Asian, and Indian monsoons, dominates the climate of the Asia-Indian Ocean-Pacific region, and plays a significant role in the global hydrological and energy cycles. The prediction of monsoons and associated climate features is a major challenge in seasonal time scale climate forecast. In this study, a comprehensive assessment of the interannual predictability of the WNP summer climate has been performed using the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES for the period of 1960–2005. Spatial distribution of the temporal correlation coefficients shows that the interannual variation of precipitation is well predicted around the Maritime Continent and east of the Philippines. The high skills for the lower-tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) spread over almost the whole WNP. These results indicate that the models in general successfully predict the interannual variation of the WNP summer climate. Two typical indices, the WNP summer precipitation index and the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation index (WNPMI), have been used to quantify the forecast skill. The correlation coefficient between five models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) mean prediction and observations for the WNP summer precipitation index reaches 0.66 during 1979–2005 while it is 0.68 for the WNPMI during 1960–2005. The WNPMI-regressed anomalies of lower-tropospheric winds, SSTs and precipitation are similar between observations and MME. Further analysis suggests that prediction reliability of the WNP summer climate mainly arises from the atmosphere–ocean interaction over the tropical Indian and the tropical Pacific Ocean, implying that continuing improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over these regions in CGCMs is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia. On the other hand, the prediction of the WNP summer climate anomalies exhibits a remarkable spread resulted from uncertainty in initial conditions. The summer anomalies related to the prediction spread, including the lower-tropospheric circulation, SST and precipitation anomalies, show a Pacific-Japan or East Asia-Pacific pattern in the meridional direction over the WNP. Our further investigations suggest that the WNPMI prediction spread arises mainly from the internal dynamics in air–sea interaction over the WNP and Indian Ocean, since the local relationships among the anomalous SST, circulation, and precipitation associated with the spread are similar to those associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in both observations and MME. However, the magnitudes of these anomalies related to the spread are weaker, ranging from one third to a half of those anomalies associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in MME over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP. These results further support that the improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP in CGCMs is a key for reducing the prediction spread and for improving the long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia.

The relationship between the North American summer monsoon, the Rocky Mountains and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone in HadAM3

In this study the relationship between the North American monsoon, the Californian sea surface temperature (SST) cold pool, the Rocky Mountains and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone is investigated using the Hadley Centre's atmospheric climate model, HadAM3. In 1996 Hoskins hypothesized that heating in the North American monsoon might be important for the maintenance of the summertime North Pacific subtropical anticyclone, since the monsoon heating may induce descent to the north-west of the monsoon in the descending eastern flank of the subtropical anticyclone. This descent is further enhanced by radiative cooling and is associated with equatorward surface winds parallel to the western coast of North America. These equatorward winds induce oceanic upwelling of cold water and contribute to the formation of the Californian SST cold pool, which may feed back on the anticyclone by further suppressing convection and inducing descent. More recently, Rodwell and Hoskins also investigated the global summer monsoon–subtropical anticyclone relationship. They examined the role that mountains play in impeding the progress of the low-level mid-latitude westerlies, either deflecting the westerlies northwards where they ascend along the sloping mid-latitude isentropes or deflecting them southwards forcing them to descend along the isentropes. In particular, the introduction of the Rockies into a primitive-equation model adiabatically induces descent in the eastern descending flank of the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone. These hypothesized mechanisms have been investigated using HadAM3, focusing on the possible suppression of convection by the Californian SST cold pool, the response of the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone to the strength of the North American monsoon and the ‘blocking’ of the mid-latitude westerlies by the Rocky Mountains. The role of the Rockies is examined by integrating the model with modified orography for the Rocky Mountains. Changing the height of the Rockies alters the circulation in a way consistent with the mechanism outlined above. Higher Rocky mountains force the westerlies southwards, inducing descent in the eastern flank of the subtropical anticyclone as the air descends along the sloping isentropes. The relationship between the North American monsoon and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone is investigated by suppressing the monsoon in HadAM3. The suppression of the monsoon is accomplished by increasing the surface albedo over Mexico, which induces anomalous ascent on the eastward flank of the subtropical anticyclone and anomalous polewards surface winds along the western coast of the North American continent, also providing support for the above hypothesis. The removal of the Californian SST cold pool, however, has a statistically insignificant effect on the model, suggesting that in this model the feedback of the SST cold pool on the eastern flank of the anticyclone is weak.