Responses of invertebrate trophic level, feeding guild and body size to the management of improved grassland field margins

P>1. Management of lowland mesotrophic grasslands in north-west Europe often makes use of inorganic fertilizers, high stocking densities and silage-based forage systems to maximize productivity. The impact of these practices has resulted in a simplification of the plant community combined with wide-scale declines in the species richness of grassland invertebrates. We aim to identify how field margin management can be used to promote invertebrate diversity across a suite of functionally diverse taxa (beetles, planthoppers, true bugs, butterflies, bumblebees and spiders). 2. Using an information theoretic approach we identify the impacts of management (cattle grazing, cutting and inorganic fertilizer) and plant community composition (forb species richness, grass species richness and sward architecture) on invertebrate species richness and body size. As many of these management practices are common to grassland systems throughout the world, understanding invertebrate responses to them is important for the maintenance of biodiversity. 3. Sward architecture was identified as the primary factor promoting increased species richness of both predatory and phytophagous trophic levels, as well as being positively correlated with mean body size. In all cases phytophagous invertebrate species richness was positively correlated with measures of plant species richness. 4. The direct effects of management practices appear to be comparatively weak, suggesting that their impacts are indirect and mediated though the continuous measures of plant community structure, such as sward architecture or plant species richness. 5. Synthesis and applications. By partitioning field margins from the remainder of the field, economically viable intensive grassland management can be combined with extensive management aimed at promoting native biodiversity. The absence of inorganic fertilizer, combined with a reduction in the intensity of both cutting and grazing regimes, promotes floral species richness and sward architectural complexity. By increasing sward architecture the total biomass of invertebrates also increased (by c. 60% across the range of sward architectural measures seen in this study), increasing food available for higher trophic levels, such as birds and mammals.

On the question of proportionality of the count of observed Scrapie cases and the size of holding

Background: The present paper investigates the question of a suitable basic model for the number of scrapie cases in a holding and applications of this knowledge to the estimation of scrapie-ffected holding population sizes and adequacy of control measures within holding. Is the number of scrapie cases proportional to the size of the holding in which case it should be incorporated into the parameter of the error distribution for the scrapie counts? Or, is there a different - potentially more complex - relationship between case count and holding size in which case the information about the size of the holding should be better incorporated as a covariate in the modeling? Methods: We show that this question can be appropriately addressed via a simple zero-truncated Poisson model in which the hypothesis of proportionality enters as a special offset-model. Model comparisons can be achieved by means of likelihood ratio testing. The procedure is illustrated by means of surveillance data on classical scrapie in Great Britain. Furthermore, the model with the best fit is used to estimate the size of the scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain by means of two capture-recapture estimators: the Poisson estimator and the generalized Zelterman estimator. Results: No evidence could be found for the hypothesis of proportionality. In fact, there is some evidence that this relationship follows a curved line which increases for small holdings up to a maximum after which it declines again. Furthermore, it is pointed out how crucial the correct model choice is when applied to capture-recapture estimation on the basis of zero-truncated Poisson models as well as on the basis of the generalized Zelterman estimator. Estimators based on the proportionality model return very different and unreasonable estimates for the population sizes. Conclusion: Our results stress the importance of an adequate modelling approach to the association between holding size and the number of cases of classical scrapie within holding. Reporting artefacts and speculative biological effects are hypothesized as the underlying causes of the observed curved relationship. The lack of adjustment for these artefacts might well render ineffective the current strategies for the control of the disease.

Estimating the hidden number of scrapie affected holdings in great Britain using a simple, truncated count model allowing for heterogeneity

None of the current surveillance streams monitoring the presence of scrapie in Great Britain provide a comprehensive and unbiased estimate of the prevalence of the disease at the holding level. Previous work to estimate the under-ascertainment adjusted prevalence of scrapie in Great Britain applied multiple-list capture-recapture methods. The enforcement of new control measures on scrapie-affected holdings in 2004 has stopped the overlapping between surveillance sources and, hence, the application of multiple-list capture-recapture models. Alternative methods, still under the capture-recapture methodology, relying on repeated entries in one single list have been suggested in these situations. In this article, we apply one-list capture-recapture approaches to data held on the Scrapie Notifications Database to estimate the undetected population of scrapie-affected holdings with clinical disease in Great Britain for the years 2002, 2003, and 2004. For doing so, we develop a new diagnostic tool for indication of heterogeneity as well as a new understanding of the Zelterman and Chao's lower bound estimators to account for potential unobserved heterogeneity. We demonstrate that the Zelterman estimator can be viewed as a maximum likelihood estimator for a special, locally truncated Poisson likelihood equivalent to a binomial likelihood. This understanding allows the extension of the Zelterman approach by means of logistic regression to include observed heterogeneity in the form of covariates-in case studied here, the holding size and country of origin. Our results confirm the presence of substantial unobserved heterogeneity supporting the application of our two estimators. The total scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain is around 300 holdings per year. None of the covariates appear to inform the model significantly.

The influence of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus ssp oleifera var. biennis) canopy size on grass weed growth and grass weed seed return

Four experiments conducted over three seasons (2002-05) at the Crops Research Unit, University of Reading, investigated effects of canopy management of autumn sown oilseed rape (Brassica napus L. ssp. oleifera var. biennis (DC.) Metzg.) on competition with grass weeds. Emphasis was placed on the effect of the crop on the weeds. Rape canopy size was manipulated using sowing date, seed rate and the application of autumn fertilizer. Lolium multiflorum Lam., L. x boucheanum Kunth and Alopecurus myosuroides Huds. were sown as indicative grass weeds. The effects of sowing date, seed rate and autumn nitrogen on crop competitive ability were correlated with rape biomass and fractional interception of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) by the rape floral layer, to the extent that by spring there was good evidence of crop: weed replacement. An increase in seed rate up to the highest plant densities tested increased both rape biomass and competitiveness, e.g. in 2002/3, L. multiflorum head density was reduced from 539 to 245 heads/m(2) and spikelet density from 13 170 to 5960 spikelets/m(2) when rape plant density was increased from 16 to 81 plants/m(2). Spikelets/head of Lolium spp. was little affected by rape seed rate, but the length of heads of A. myosuroides was reduced by 9 % when plant density was increased from 29-51 plants/m(2). Autumn nitrogen increased rape biomass and reduced L. multiflorum head density (415 and 336 heads/m(2) without and with autumn nitrogen, respectively) and spikelet density (9990 and 8220 spikelets/m(2) without and with autumn nitrogen, respectively). The number of spikelets/head was not significantly affected by autumn nitrogen. Early sowing could increase biomass and competitiveness, but poor crop establishment sometimes overrode the effect. Where crop and weed establishment was similar for both sowing dates, a 2-week delay (i.e. early September to mid-September) increased L. multiflorum head density from 226 to 633 heads/m(2) and spikelet density from 5780 to 15 060 spikelets/m(2).

The effect of potato variety mixtures on epidemics of late blight, in relation to plot size and level of resistance

Potatoes of a number of varieties of contrasting levels of resistance were planted in pure or mixed stands in four experiments over 3 years. Three experiments compared the late blight severity and progress in mixtures with that in pure stands. Disease on susceptible or moderately resistant varieties typical of those in commercial use was similar in mixtures and pure stands. In 2 of 3 years, there were slight reductions on cv. Sante, which is moderately susceptible, in mixture with cv. Cara, which is moderately resistant. Cara was unaffected by this mixture. Mixtures of an immune or near-immune partner with Cara or Sante substantially reduced disease on the latter. The effect of the size of plots of individual varieties or mixtures on blight severity was compared in two experiments. Larger plots had a greater area under the disease progress curve, but the average rate of disease progress was greater in smaller plots; this may be because most disease progress took place later, under more favourable conditions, in the smaller plots. In one experiment, two planting densities were used. Density had no effect on disease and did not interact with mixture effects. The overall conclusion is that, while mixtures of potato varieties may be desirable for other reasons, they do not offer any improvement on the average of the disease resistance of the components.

Optimal 3D surface reconstruction from a small number of conventional 2D X-ray images

This paper describes a method for reconstructing 3D frontier points, contour generators and surfaces of anatomical objects or smooth surfaces from a small number, e. g. 10, of conventional 2D X-ray images. The X-ray images are taken at different viewing directions with full prior knowledge of the X-ray source and sensor configurations. Unlike previous works, we empirically demonstrate that if the viewing directions are uniformly distributed around the object's viewing sphere, then the reconstructed 3D points automatically cluster closely on a highly curved part of the surface and are widely spread on smooth or flat parts. The advantage of this property is that the reconstructed points along a surface or a contour generator are not under-sampled or under-represented because surfaces or contours should be sampled or represented with more densely points where their curvatures are high. The more complex the contour's shape, the greater is the number of points required, but the greater the number of points is automatically generated by the proposed method. Given that the number of viewing directions is fixed and the viewing directions are uniformly distributed, the number and distribution of the reconstructed points depend on the shape or the curvature of the surface regardless of the size of the surface or the size of the object. The technique may be used not only in medicine but also in industrial applications.

A bagging-based correction for the mixture model estimator of population size

Estimation of a population size by means of capture-recapture techniques is an important problem occurring in many areas of life and social sciences. We consider the frequencies of frequencies situation, where a count variable is used to summarize how often a unit has been identified in the target population of interest. The distribution of this count variable is zero-truncated since zero identifications do not occur in the sample. As an application we consider the surveillance of scrapie in Great Britain. In this case study holdings with scrapie that are not identified (zero counts) do not enter the surveillance database. The count variable of interest is the number of scrapie cases per holding. For count distributions a common model is the Poisson distribution and, to adjust for potential heterogeneity, a discrete mixture of Poisson distributions is used. Mixtures of Poissons usually provide an excellent fit as will be demonstrated in the application of interest. However, as it has been recently demonstrated, mixtures also suffer under the so-called boundary problem, resulting in overestimation of population size. It is suggested here to select the mixture model on the basis of the Bayesian Information Criterion. This strategy is further refined by employing a bagging procedure leading to a series of estimates of population size. Using the median of this series, highly influential size estimates are avoided. In limited simulation studies it is shown that the procedure leads to estimates with remarkable small bias.

Application of the entropy technique and genetic algorithms to construction site layout planning of medium-size projects

Genetic algorithms (GAs) have been introduced into site layout planning as reported in a number of studies. In these studies, the objective functions were defined so as to employ the GAs in searching for the optimal site layout. However, few studies have been carried out to investigate the actual closeness of relationships between site facilities; it is these relationships that ultimately govern the site layout. This study has determined that the underlying factors of site layout planning for medium-size projects include work flow, personnel flow, safety and environment, and personal preferences. By finding the weightings on these factors and the corresponding closeness indices between each facility, a closeness relationship has been deduced. Two contemporary mathematical approaches - fuzzy logic theory and an entropy measure - were adopted in finding these results in order to minimize the uncertainty and vagueness of the collected data and improve the quality of the information. GAs were then applied to searching for the optimal site layout in a medium-size government project using the GeneHunter software. The objective function involved minimizing the total travel distance. An optimal layout was obtained within a short time. This reveals that the application of GA to site layout planning is highly promising and efficient.

Detecting the number of signals using antenna array: a single threshold solution

A new approach is presented to identify the number of incoming signals in antenna array processing. The new method exploits the inherent properties existing in the noise eigenvalues of the covariance matrix of the array output. A single threshold has been established concerning information about the signal and noise strength, data length, and array size. When the subspace-based algorithms are adopted the computation cost of the signal number detector can almost be neglected. The performance of the threshold is robust against low SNR and short data length.

Portfolio size and the reduction of dispersion: the case of the United Kingdom commercial real estate market

This paper investigates the potential benefits and limitations of equal and value-weighted diversification using as the example the UK institutional property market. To achieve this it uses the largest sample (392) of actual property returns that is currently available, over the period 1981 to 1996. To evaluate these issues two approaches are adopted; first, an analysis of the correlations within the sectors and regions and secondly simulations of property portfolios of increasing size constructed both naively and with value-weighting. Using these methods it is shown that the extent of possible risk reduction is limited because of the high positive correlations between assets in any portfolio, even when naively diversified. It is also shown that portfolios exhibit high levels of variability around the average risk, suggesting that previous work seriously understates the number of properties needed to achieve a satisfactory level of diversification. The results have implications for the development and maintenance of a property portfolio because they indicate that the achievable level of risk reduction depends upon the availability of assets, the weighting system used and the investor’s risk tolerance.

Risk reduction and real estate portfolio size

Despite a number of papers that discuss the advantages of increased size on risk levels in real estate portfolios there is remarkably little empirical evidence based on actual portfolios. The objective of this paper is to remedy this deficiency by examining the portfolio risk of a large sample of actual property data over the period 1981 to 1996. The results show that all that can be said is that portfolios of properties of a large size, on the average, tend to have lower risks than small sized portfolios. More importantly portfolios of a few properties can have very high or very low risk.

What limits insect fecundity? Body size- and temperature-dependent egg maturation and oviposition in a butterfly

1. Large female insects usually have high potential fecundity. Therefore selection should favour an increase in body size given that these females get opportunities to realize their potential advantage by maturing and laying more eggs. However, ectotherm physiology is strongly temperature-dependent, and activities are carried out sufficiently only within certain temperature ranges. Thus it remains unclear if the fecundity advantage of a large size is fully realized in natural environments, where thermal conditions are limiting. 2. Insect fecundity might be limited by temperature at two levels; first eggs need to mature, and then the female needs time for strategic ovipositing of the egg. Since a female cannot foresee the number of oviposition opportunities that she will encounter on a given day, the optimal rate of egg maturation will be governed by trade-offs associated with egg- and time-limited oviposition. As females of different sizes will have different amounts of body reserves, size-dependent allocation trade-offs between the mother’s condition and her egg production might be expected. 3. In the temperate butterfly Pararge aegeria , the time and temperature dependence of oviposition and egg maturation, and the interrelatedness of these two processes were investigated in a series of laboratory experiments, allowing a decoupling of the time budgets for the respective processes. 4. The results show that realized fecundity of this species can be limited by both the temperature dependence of egg maturation and oviposition under certain thermal regimes. Furthermore, rates of oviposition and egg maturation seemed to have regulatory effects upon each other. Early reproductive output was correlated with short life span, indicating a cost of reproduction. Finally, large females matured more eggs than small females when deprived of oviposition opportunities. Thus, the optimal allocation of resources to egg production seems dependent on female size. 5. This study highlights the complexity of processes underlying rates of egg maturation and oviposition in ectotherms under natural conditions. We further discuss the importance of temperature variation for egg- vs. time-limited fecundity and the consequences for the evolution of female body size in insects.

Vocabulary size revisited: the link between vocabulary size and academic achievement

Many researchers have tried to assess the number of words adults know. A general conclusion which emerges from such studies is that vocabularies of English monolingual adults are very large with considerable variation. This variation is important given that the vocabulary size of schoolchildren in the early years of school is thought to materially affect subsequent educational attainment. The data is difficult to interpret, however, because of the different methodologies which researchers use. The study in this paper uses the frequency-based vocabulary size test from Goulden et al (1990) and investigates the vocabulary knowledge of undergraduates in three British universities. The results suggest that monolingual speaker vocabulary sizes may be much smaller than is generally thought with far less variation than is usually reported. An average figure of about 10,000 English words families emerges for entrants to university. This figure suggests that many students must struggle with the comprehension of university level texts.

Synergetic effect of carbon nanopore size and surface oxidation on CO2 capture from CO2/CH4 mixtures

We have studied the synergetic effect of confinement (carbon nanopore size) and surface chemistry (the number of carbonyl groups) on CO2 capture from its mixtures with CH4 at typical operating conditions for industrial adsorptive separation (298 K and compressed CO2CH4 mixtures). Although both confinement and surface oxidation have an impact on the efficiency of CO2/CH4 adsorptive separation at thermodynamics equilibrium, we show that surface functionalization is the most important factor in designing an efficient adsorbent for CO2 capture. Systematic Monte Carlo simulations revealed that adsorption of CH4 either pure or mixed with CO2 on oxidized nanoporous carbons is only slightly increased by the presence of functional groups (surface dipoles). In contrast, adsorption of CO2 is very sensitive to the number of carbonyl groups, which can be examined by a strong electric quadrupolar moment of CO2. Interestingly, the adsorbed amount of CH4 is strongly affected by the presence of the co-adsorbed CO2. In contrast, the CO2 uptake does not depend on the molar ratio of CH4 in the bulk mixture. The optimal carbonaceous porous adsorbent used for CO2 capture near ambient conditions should consist of narrow carbon nanopores with oxidized pore walls. Furthermore, the equilibrium separation factor was the greatest for CO2/CH4 mixtures with a low CO2 concentration. The maximum equilibrium separation factor of CO2 over CH4 of ∼18–20 is theoretically predicted for strongly oxidized nanoporous carbons. Our findings call for a review of the standard uncharged model of carbonaceous materials used for the modeling of the adsorption separation processes of gas mixtures containing CO2 (and other molecules with strong electric quadrupolar moment or dipole moment).

Activities related with electricity consumption in the Spanish residential sector: variations between days of the week, Autonomous Communities and size of towns

Nowadays the electricity consumption in the residential sector attracts policy and research efforts, in order to propose saving strategies and to attain a better balance between production and consumption, by integrating renewable energy production and proposing suitable demand side management methods. To achieve these objectives it is essential to have real information about household electricity demand profiles in dwellings, highly correlated, among other aspects, with the active occupancy of the homes and to the personal activities carried out in homes by their occupants. Due to the limited information related to these aspects, in this paper, behavioral factors of the Spanish household residents, related to the electricity consumption, have been determined and analyzed, based on data from the Spanish Time Use Surveys, differentiating among the Autonomous Communities and the size of municipalities, or the type of days, weekdays or weekends. Activities involving a larger number of houses are those related to Personal Care, Food Preparation and Washing Dishes. The activity of greater realization at homes is Watching TV, which together with Using PC, results in a high energy demand in an aggregate level. Results obtained enable identify prospective targets for load control and for efficiency energy reduction recommendations to residential consumers.