The Emperor Has New Clothes: Empirical Tests of Mainstream Theories of Economic Growth

Modern macroeconomic theory utilises optimal control techniques to model the maximisation of individual well-being using a lifetime utility function. Agents face choices over current and future consumption (with resultant implied savings decisions) seeking to maximise the present value of current plus future well-being. However, such inter-temporal welfare-maximising assumptions remain empirically untested. In the work presented here we test whether welfare was in (historical) fact maximised in the US between 1870-2000 and find empirical support for the optimising basis of growth theory, but only once a comprehensive view of what constitutes a country’s wealth or capital is taken into account.

IQRray, a new method for Affymetrix microarray quality control, and the homologous organ conservation score, a new benchmark method for quality control metrics.

MOTIVATION: Microarray results accumulated in public repositories are widely reused in meta-analytical studies and secondary databases. The quality of the data obtained with this technology varies from experiment to experiment, and an efficient method for quality assessment is necessary to ensure their reliability. RESULTS: The lack of a good benchmark has hampered evaluation of existing methods for quality control. In this study, we propose a new independent quality metric that is based on evolutionary conservation of expression profiles. We show, using 11 large organ-specific datasets, that IQRray, a new quality metrics developed by us, exhibits the highest correlation with this reference metric, among 14 metrics tested. IQRray outperforms other methods in identification of poor quality arrays in datasets composed of arrays from many independent experiments. In contrast, the performance of methods designed for detecting outliers in a single experiment like Normalized Unscaled Standard Error and Relative Log Expression was low because of the inability of these methods to detect datasets containing only low-quality arrays and because the scores cannot be directly compared between experiments. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The R implementation of IQRray is available at: ftp://lausanne.isb-sib.ch/pub/databases/Bgee/general/IQRray.R. CONTACT: Marta.Rosikiewicz@unil.ch SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Evaluation of three serological tests for the detection of human plague in northeast Brazil

The passive haemagglutination (PHA) test, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and the dot enzyme-immunosorbent assay (DOT-ELISA) were used to detect the levels of IgG antibodies against the Fraction 1 (F1) antigen of Yersinia pestis in sera of plague-infected patients from Northeast Brazil. Twenty three selected PHA-positive sera of subjects with bacteriological confirmation of plague were also positive in the DOT-ELISA but only 19 were detected by the conventional ELISA technique. Another group of 186 serum samples from subjects diagnosed as plague-infected by clinical and epidemiological parameters, but PHA-negative, were screened with DOT-ELISA and 11 gave positive results. The specificity of the assays on the serological detection of plague was confirmed in inhibition tests using purified F1 antigen. These results suggest that DOT-ELISA can be an useful, simple and more sensitive alternative for the serodiagnosis of plague in Northeast Brazil.

Rapid diagnostic tests for non-malarial febrile illness in the tropics.

The recent roll-out of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for malaria has highlighted the decreasing proportion of malaria-attributable illness in endemic areas. Unfortunately, once malaria is excluded, there are few accessible diagnostic tools to guide the management of severe febrile illnesses in low resource settings. This review summarizes the current state of RDT development for several key infections, including dengue fever, enteric fever, leptospirosis, brucellosis, visceral leishmaniasis and human African trypanosomiasis, and highlights many remaining gaps. Most RDTs for non-malarial tropical infections currently rely on the detection of host antibodies against a single infectious agent. The sensitivity and specificity of host-antibody detection tests are both inherently limited. Moreover, prolonged antibody responses to many infections preclude the use of most serological RDTs for monitoring response to treatment and/or for diagnosing relapse. Considering these limitations, there is a pressing need for sensitive pathogen-detection-based RDTs, as have been successfully developed for malaria and dengue. Ultimately, integration of RDTs into a validated syndromic approach to tropical fevers is urgently needed. Related research priorities are to define the evolving epidemiology of fever in the tropics, and to determine how combinations of RDTs could be best used to improve the management of severe and treatable infections requiring specific therapy.

Automatització de tests per a una aplicació J2EE

Aquest projecte consisteix en la creació d’una eina que permeti automatitzar els tests que s’han de fer a una aplicació comercial j2ee, amb el propòsit de facilitar i estalviar feina a les persones encarregades de testejar aquesta aplicació, ajudant-les així en la seva tasca de cerca d’errors. Concretament, s’ha creat una aplicació construïda per capes, modulable i fàcilment ampliable, la qual arriba més enllà de l’automatització dels tests més habituals, permetent executar un conjunt de tests per tal de validar si la versió de l’aplicació a testejar és vàlida o no.

Enzyme replacement therapy with agalsidase alfa in patients with Fabry's disease: an analysis of registry data.

BACKGROUND: We analysed 5-year treatment with agalsidase alfa enzyme replacement therapy in patients with Fabry's disease who were enrolled in the Fabry Outcome Survey observational database (FOS). METHODS: Baseline and 5-year data were available for up to 181 adults (126 men) in FOS. Serial data for cardiac mass and function, renal function, pain, and quality of life were assessed. Safety and sensitivity analyses were done in patients with baseline and at least one relevant follow-up measurement during the 5 years (n=555 and n=475, respectively). FINDINGS: In patients with baseline cardiac hypertrophy, treatment resulted in a sustained reduction in left ventricular mass (LVM) index after 5 years (from 71.4 [SD 22.5] g/m(2.7) to 64.1 [18.7] g/m(2.7), p=0.0111) and a significant increase in midwall fractional shortening (MFS) from 14.3% (2.3) to 16.0% (3.8) after 3 years (p=0.02). In patients without baseline hypertrophy, LVM index and MFS remained stable. Mean yearly fall in estimated glomerular filtration rate versus baseline after 5 years of enzyme replacement therapy was -3.17 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) for men and -0.89 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) for women. Average pain, measured by Brief Pain Inventory score, improved significantly, from 3.7 (2.3) at baseline to 2.5 (2.4) after 5 years (p=0.0023). Quality of life, measured by deviation scores from normal EuroQol values, improved significantly, from -0.24 (0.3) at baseline to -0.17 (0.3) after 5 years (p=0.0483). Findings were confirmed by sensitivity analysis. No unexpected safety concerns were identified. INTERPRETATION: By comparison with historical natural history data for patients with Fabry's disease who were not treated with enzyme replacement therapy, long-term treatment with agalsidase alfa leads to substantial and sustained clinical benefits. FUNDING: Shire Human Genetic Therapies AB.

Reproducibility and feasibility of a 22 joints ultrasound score in rheumatoid arthritis: a study among rheumatologists with diverse expertise in musculoskeletal ultrasound

Objective: To assess reproducibility and feasibility of amusculoskeletal ultrasound (US) score for rheumatoid arthritis amongrheumatologist with diverse expertise in US, working in private orhospital practice.Methods: The Swiss Sonography in Arthritis and Rheumatism(SONAR) group has developed a semi-quantitative score for RA usingOMERACT criteria for synovitis and erosion. The score was taught torheumatologists trained in US through two workshops. Subsequently,they were encouraged to practice in their office. For the study, we used6 US machines of different quality, each with a different patient.19 readers randomly selected among rheumatologists who haveattended both workshops, were asked to score anonymously at leastone patient. To assess whether some factors influence the score, weasked each reader to answer questionnaire describing his experiencewith US.Results: 19 rheumatologists have performed 29 scans, each patienthaving been evaluated by 4 to 6 readers. Median time for examcompletion was 20 minutes (range 15 to 60 mn). 53% ofrheumatologists work in private practice. Graph 1 show the global greyscale score for each patient. Weighted kappa was calculated for eachpair of reader using stata11. Almost all kappa of poor agreement wereobtained with a low quality device or by an assessor who havepreviously performed less than 5 scores himself.Conclusions: This is the first study to show an US score for RAfeasible by rheumatologists with diverse expertise in US both in privateand hospital practice. Reproducibility seemed to be influenced by thequality of device and previous experience with the score.

Standardization of serological tests for detecting anti-Trypanosoma cruzi antibodies in dogs

This paper reports on the standardization of four serological reactions currently used in human serodiagnosis for the detection of anti-Trypanosoma cruzi antibodies in naturally and experimentally infected dogs. Indirect immunofluorescence test (IFAT) and hemagglutination test (IHAT) were standardized, and complement fixation test (CFT) and direct agglutination test (DAT) were used for diagnostic confirmation. Four hundred and eighty one mongrel dogs that were studied by xenodiagnosis were used: (1) parasitemic dogs of two localities of endemic area (EA) of Santiago del Estero province in Argentina (n = 134); (2) non-parasitemic dogs of the same area (n = 285); (3) dogs experimentally infected with T. cruzi in the patent period (n = 6); (4) non-infected dogs (n = 56) which were born in the city of Buenos Aires (BA), one non-EA for Chagas' disease. For IFAT, parasitemic dogs EA showed 95% of reactive sera. Non parasitemic dogs EA showed 77% of non reactive sera. None sera from BA were reactive for dilutions higher than four. For IHAT, 84% of sera of parasitemic dogs EA showed serological reactivity and among non parasitemic dogs BA, 61% were non reactive, while the remainder showed at most titres of 1/16. The cut-off titres for IFAT and IHAT were 1/16 and 1/32 respectively, and for CFT and DAT 1/1 and 1/128 respectively. Sensitivity for IFAT, IHAT, CF and DAT were 95%, 84%, 97% and 95% respectively.

Tests de dépistage de drogues dans les écoles et les entreprises

Problématiques sur le plan éthique, mais aussi sur le plan juridique, les tests de dépistage des substances psychoactives en milieu scolaire et en milieu professionnel renvoient d'abord et avant tout à un examen d'aptitude. Celui-ci est du ressort de l'intervenant médical, sous couvert des garanties d'adéquation, de pertinence et de proportionnalité des moyens d'évaluation mis en oeuvre, ainsi que des règles relatives au consentement et à la confidentialité.

DNA evidence, probabilistic evaluation and collaborative tests.

Forensic scientists working in 12 state or private laboratories participated in collaborative tests to improve the reliability of the presentation of DNA data at trial. These tests were motivated in response to the growing criticism of the power of DNA evidence. The experts' conclusions in the tests are presented and discussed in the context of the Bayesian approach to interpretation. The use of a Bayesian approach and subjective probabilities in trace evaluation permits, in an easy and intuitive manner, the integration into the decision procedure of any revision of the measure of uncertainty in the light of new information. Such an integration is especially useful with forensic evidence. Furthermore, we believe that this probabilistic model is a useful tool (a) to assist scientists in the assessment of the value of scientific evidence, (b) to help jurists in the interpretation of judicial facts and (c) to clarify the respective roles of scientists and of members of the court. Respondents to the survey were reluctant to apply this methodology in the assessment of DNA evidence.

Validation of a score for predicting fatal bleeding in patients receiving anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: The only available score to assess the risk for fatal bleeding in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) has not been validated yet. METHODS: We used the RIETE database to validate the risk-score for fatal bleeding within the first 3 months of anticoagulation in a new cohort of patients recruited after the end of the former study. Accuracy was measured using the ROC curve analysis. RESULTS: As of December 2011, 39,284 patients were recruited in RIETE. Of these, 15,206 had not been included in the former study, and were considered to validate the score. Within the first 3 months of anticoagulation, 52 patients (0.34%; 95% CI: 0.27-0.45) died of bleeding. Patients with a risk score of <1.5 points (64.1% of the cohort) had a 0.10% rate of fatal bleeding, those with a score of 1.5-4.0 (33.6%) a rate of 0.72%, and those with a score of >4 points had a rate of 1.44%. The c-statistic for fatal bleeding was 0.775 (95% CI 0.720-0.830). The score performed better for predicting gastrointestinal (c-statistic, 0.869; 95% CI: 0.810-0.928) than intracranial (c-statistic, 0.687; 95% CI: 0.568-0.806) fatal bleeding. The score value with highest combined sensitivity and specificity was 1.75. The risk for fatal bleeding was significantly increased (odds ratio: 7.6; 95% CI 3.7-16.2) above this cut-off value. CONCLUSIONS: The accuracy of the score in this validation cohort was similar to the accuracy found in the index study. Interestingly, it performed better for predicting gastrointestinal than intracranial fatal bleeding.

Can the trabecular bone score be considered as a major clinical risk factor of osteoporotic fractures? A meta-like analysis.

To have an added value over BMD, a CRF of osteoporotic fracture must be predictable of the fracture, independent of BMD, reversible and quantifiable. Many major recognized CRF exist. Out of these factors many of them are indirect factor of bone quality. TBS predicts fracture independently of BMD as demonstrated from previous studies. The aim of the study is to verify if TBS can be considered as a major CRF of osteoporotic fracture. Existing validated datasets of Caucasian women were analyzed. These datasets stem from different studies performed by the authors of this report or provided to our group. However, the level of evidence of these studies will vary. Thus, the different datasets were weighted differently according to their design. This meta-like analysis involves more than 32000 women (≥50years) with 2000 osteoporotic fractures from two prospective studies (OFELY&MANITOBA) and 7 cross-sectional studies. Weighted relative risk (RR) for TBS was expressed for each decrease of one standard deviation as well as per tertile difference (TBS=1.300 and 1.200) and compared with those obtained for the major CRF included in FRAX®. Overall TBS RR obtained (adjusted for age) was 1.79 [95%CI-1.37-2.37]. For all women combined, RR for fracture for the lowest compared with the middle TBS tertile was 1.55[1.46-1.68] and for the lowest compared with the highest TBS tertile was 2.8[2.70-3.00]. TBS is comparable to most of the major CRF and thus could be used as one of them. Further studies have to be conducted to confirm these first findings.

One-year survival and neurological outcome after pediatric cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

OBJECTIVE: Reported survival after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in children varies considerably. We aimed to identify predictors of 1-year survival and to assess long-term neurological status after in- or outpatient CPR. DESIGN: Retrospective review of the medical records and prospective follow-up of CPR survivors. SETTING: Tertiary care pediatric university hospital. PATIENTS AND METHODS: During a 30-month period, 89 in- and outpatients received advanced CPR. Survivors of CPR were prospectively followed-up for 1 year. Neurological outcome was assessed by the Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category scale (PCPC). Variables predicting 1-year survival were identified by multivariable logistic regression analysis. INTERVENTIONS: None. RESULTS: Seventy-one of the 89 patients were successfully resuscitated. During subsequent hospitalization do-not-resuscitate orders were issued in 25 patients. At 1 year, 48 (54%) were alive, including two of the 25 patients with out-of-hospital CPR. All patients died, who required CPR after trauma or near drowning, when CPR began >10 min after arrest or with CPR duration >60 min. Prolonged CPR (21-60 min) was compatible with survival (five of 19). At 1 year, 77% of the survivors had the same PCPC score as prior to CPR. Predictors of survival were location of resuscitation, CPR during peri- or postoperative care, and duration of resuscitation. A clinical score (0-15 points) based on these three items yielded an area under the ROC of 0.93. CONCLUSIONS: Independent determinants of long-term survival of pediatric resuscitation are location of arrest, underlying cause, and duration of CPR. Long-term survivors have little or no change in neurological status.