Evaluating the risk of mixtures in the indoor air of primary school classrooms

In school environments, children are constantly exposed to mixtures of airborne substances, derived from a variety of sources, both in the classroom and in the school surroundings. It is important to evaluate the hazardous properties of these mixtures, in order to conduct risk assessments of their impact on chil¬dren’s health. Within this context, through the application of a Maximum Cumulative Ratio approach, this study aimed to explore whether health risks due to indoor air mixtures are driven by a single substance or are due to cumulative exposure to various substances. This methodology requires knowledge of the concentration of substances in the air mixture, together with a health related weighting factor (i.e. reference concentration or lowest concentration of interest), which is necessary to calculate the Hazard Index. Maximum cumulative ratio and Hazard Index values were then used to categorise the mixtures into four groups, based on their hazard potential and therefore, appropriate risk management strategies. Air samples were collected from classrooms in 25 primary schools in Brisbane, Australia. Analysis was conducted based on the measured concentration of these substances in about 300 air samples. The results showed that in 92% of the schools, indoor air mixtures belonged to the ‘low concern’ group and therefore, they did not require any further assessment. In the remaining schools, toxicity was mainly governed by a single substance, with a very small number of schools having a multiple substance mix which required a combined risk assessment. The proposed approach enables the identification of such schools and thus, aides in the efficient health risk management of pollution emissions and air quality in the school environment.

Tools to manage climate risk in cropping (Australia).

Because of the variable and changing environment, advisors and farmers are seeking systems that provide risk management support at a number of time scales. The Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, Toowoomba, Australia has developed a suite of tools to assist advisors and farmers to better manage risk in cropping. These tools range from simple rainfall analysis tools (Rainman, HowWet, HowOften) through crop simulation tools (WhopperCropper and YieldProphet) to the most complex, APSFarm, a whole-farm analysis tool. Most are derivatives of the APSIM crop model. These tools encompass a range of complexity and potential benefit to both the farming community and for government policy. This paper describes, the development and usage of two specific products; WhopperCropper and APSFarm. WhopperCropper facilitates simulation-aided discussion of growers' exposure to risk when comparing alternative crop input options. The user can readily generate 'what-if' scenarios that separate the major influences whilst holding other factors constant. Interactions of the major inputs can also be tested. A manager can examine the effects of input levels (and Southern Oscillation Index phase) to broadly determine input levels that match their attitude to risk. APSFarm has been used to demonstrate that management changes can have different effects in short and long time periods. It can be used to test local advisors and farmers' knowledge and experience of their desired rotation system. This study has shown that crop type has a larger influence than more conservative minimum soil water triggers in the long term. However, in short term dry periods, minimum soil water triggers and maximum area of the various crops can give significant financial gains.

Human health risk assessment of heavy metals in urban stormwater

Toxic chemical pollutants such as heavy metals (HMs) are commonly present in urban stormwater. These pollutants can pose a significant risk to human health and hence a significant barrier for urban stormwater reuse. The primary aim of this study was to develop an approach for quantitatively assessing the risk to human health due to the presence of HMs in stormwater. This approach will lead to informed decision making in relation to risk management of urban stormwater reuse, enabling efficient implementation of appropriate treatment strategies. In this study, risks to human health from heavy metals were assessed as hazard index (HI) and quantified as a function of traffic and land use related parameters. Traffic and land use are the primary factors influencing heavy metal loads in the urban environment. The risks posed by heavy metals associated with total solids and fine solids (<150µm) were considered to represent the maximum and minimum risk levels, respectively. The study outcomes confirmed that Cr, Mn and Pb pose the highest risks, although these elements are generally present in low concentrations. The study also found that even though the presence of a single heavy metal does not pose a significant risk, the presence of multiple heavy metals could be detrimental to human health. These findings suggest that stormwater guidelines should consider the combined risk from multiple heavy metals rather than the threshold concentration of an individual species. Furthermore, it was found that risk to human health from heavy metals in stormwater is significantly influenced by traffic volume and the risk associated with stormwater from industrial areas is generally higher than that from commercial and residential areas.

Essays on the Linkages Between Financial Markets, and Risk Asymmetries (summary section only)

During the last few decades there have been far going financial market deregulation, technical development, advances in information technology, and standardization of legislation between countries. As a result, one can expect that financial markets have grown more interlinked. The proper understanding of the cross-market linkages has implications for investment and risk management, diversification, asset pricing, and regulation. The purpose of this research is to assess the degree of price, return, and volatility linkages between both geographic markets and asset categories within one country, Finland. Another purpose is to analyze risk asymmetries, i.e., the tendency of equity risk to be higher after negative events than after positive events of equal magnitude. The analysis is conducted both with respect to total risk (volatility), and systematic risk (beta). The thesis consists of an introductory part and four essays. The first essay studies to which extent international stock prices comove. The degree of comovements is low, indicating benefits from international diversification. The second essay examines the degree to which the Finnish market is linked to the “world market”. The total risk is divided into two parts, one relating to world factors, and one relating to domestic factors. The impact of world factors has increased over time. After 1993, when foreign investors were allowed to freely invest in Finnish assets, the risk level has been higher than previously. This was also the case during the economic recession in the beginning of the 1990’s. The third essay focuses on the stock, bond, and money markets in Finland. According to a trading model, the degree of volatility linkages should be strong. However, the results contradict this. The linkages are surprisingly weak, even negative. The stock market is the most independent, while the money market is affected by events on the two other markets. The fourth essay concentrates on volatility and beta asymmetries. Contrary to many international studies there are only few cases of risk asymmetries. When they occur, they tend to be driven by the market-wide component rather than the portfolio specific element.

COMMON-Sense net:Improved water management for resource-poor farmers via sensor networks

We describe the on-going design and implementation of a sensor network for agricultural management targeted at resource-poor farmers in India. Our focus on semi-arid regions led us to concentrate on water-related issues. Throughout 2004, we carried out a survey on the information needs of the population living in a cluster of villages in our study area. The results highlighted the potential that environment-related information has for the improvement of farming strategies in the face of highly variable conditions, in particular for risk management strategies (choice of crop varieties, sowing and harvest periods, prevention of pests and diseases, efficient use of irrigation water etc.). This leads us to advocate an original use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). We believe our demand-driven approach for the design of appropriate ICT tools that are targeted at the resource-poor to be relatively new. In order to go beyond a pure technocratic approach, we adopted an iterative, participatory methodology.

Managing Information Risks in asset management - Experiences from an in-depth case study in the utility industry

Information is one of the most important resources in our globalized economy. The value of information often exceeds the value of physical assets. Information quality has, in many ways, an impact on asset management organisations and asset managers struggle to understand and to quantify it, which is a prerequisite for effective information quality improvement. Over the past few years, we have developed an innovative management concept that addresses these new asset management challenges: a process for Total Information Risk Management (TIRM), which has been already tested in a number of asset management industries. The TIRM process enables to manage information quality more effectively in asset management organisations as it focuses specifically on the risks that are imposed by information quality. In this paper, we show how we have applied the TIRM process in an in-depth study at a medium-sized European utility provider, the Manx Electricity Authority (MEA), at the Isle of Man.

Risk-based approaches to sustainability in civil engineering

Infrastructure project sustainability assessment typically entails the use of specialised assessment tools to measure and rate project performance against a set of criteria. This paper looks beyond the prevailing approaches to sustainability assessments and explores sustainability principles in terms of project risks and opportunities. Taking a risk management approach to applying sustainability concepts to projects has the potential to reconceptualise decision structures for sustainability from bespoke assessments to becoming a standard part of the project decisionmaking process. By integrating issues of sustainability into project risk management for project planning, design and construction, sustainability is considered within a more traditional business and engineering language. Currently, there is no widely practised approach for objectively considering the environmental and social context of projects alongside the more traditional project risk assessments of time, cost and quality. A risk-based approach would not solve all the issues associated with existing sustainability assessments but it would place sustainability concerns alongside other key risks and opportunities, integrating sustainability with other project decisions.

Trust-Level Risk Evaluation and Risk Control Guidance in the NHS East of England

In recent years, the healthcare sector has adopted the use of operational risk assessment tools to help understand the systems issues that lead to patient safety incidents. But although these problem-focused tools have improved the ability of healthcare organizations to identify hazards, they have not translated into measurable improvements in patient safety. One possible reason for this is a lack of support for the solution-focused process of risk control. This article describes a content analysis of the risk management strategies, policies, and procedures at all acute (i.e., hospital), mental health, and ambulance trusts (health service organizations) in the East of England area of the British National Health Service. The primary goal was to determine what organizational-level guidance exists to support risk control practice. A secondary goal was to examine the risk evaluation guidance provided by these trusts. With regard to risk control, we found an almost complete lack of useful guidance to promote good practice. With regard to risk evaluation, the trusts relied exclusively on risk matrices. A number of weaknesses were found in the use of this tool, especially related to the guidance for scoring an event's likelihood. We make a number of recommendations to address these concerns. The guidance assessed provides insufficient support for risk control and risk evaluation. This may present a significant barrier to the success of risk management approaches in improving patient safety. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC): introducing a novel technique.

BACKGROUND: After investing significant amounts of time and money in conducting formal risk assessments, such as root cause analysis (RCA) or failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), healthcare workers are left to their own devices in generating high-quality risk control options. They often experience difficulty in doing so, and tend toward an overreliance on administrative controls (the weakest category in the hierarchy of risk controls). This has important implications for patient safety and the cost effectiveness of risk management operations. This paper describes a before and after pilot study of the Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) technique, a novel tool to improve the quality of the risk control options generation process. OUTCOME MEASURES: The quantity, quality (using the three-tiered hierarchy of risk controls), variety, and novelty of risk controls generated. RESULTS: Use of the GO-ARC technique was associated with improvement on all measures. CONCLUSIONS: While this pilot study has some notable limitations, it appears that the GO-ARC technique improved the risk control options generation process. Further research is needed to confirm this finding. It is also important to note that improved risk control options are a necessary, but not sufficient, step toward the implementation of more robust risk controls.

Clinical utility of a Web-enabled risk-assessment and clinical decision support program.

PURPOSE: Risk-stratified guidelines can improve quality of care and cost-effectiveness, but their uptake in primary care has been limited. MeTree, a Web-based, patient-facing risk-assessment and clinical decision support tool, is designed to facilitate uptake of risk-stratified guidelines. METHODS: A hybrid implementation-effectiveness trial of three clinics (two intervention, one control). PARTICIPANTS: consentable nonadopted adults with upcoming appointments. PRIMARY OUTCOME: agreement between patient risk level and risk management for those meeting evidence-based criteria for increased-risk risk-management strategies (increased risk) and those who do not (average risk) before MeTree and after. MEASURES: chart abstraction was used to identify risk management related to colon, breast, and ovarian cancer, hereditary cancer, and thrombosis. RESULTS: Participants = 488, female = 284 (58.2%), white = 411 (85.7%), mean age = 58.7 (SD = 12.3). Agreement between risk management and risk level for all conditions for each participant, except for colon cancer, which was limited to those <50 years of age, was (i) 1.1% (N = 2/174) for the increased-risk group before MeTree and 16.1% (N = 28/174) after and (ii) 99.2% (N = 2,125/2,142) for the average-risk group before MeTree and 99.5% (N = 2,131/2,142) after. Of those receiving increased-risk risk-management strategies at baseline, 10.5% (N = 2/19) met criteria for increased risk. After MeTree, 80.7% (N = 46/57) met criteria. CONCLUSION: MeTree integration into primary care can improve uptake of risk-stratified guidelines and potentially reduce "overuse" and "underuse" of increased-risk services.Genet Med 18 10, 1020-1028.

Managing the risk of parenting

The aim of parents is to enable their children to become autonomous individuals capable of participating fully in the culture in which they live (Korbin 1997). Furthermore, the quality of parenting is reflected in an adult’s ability to recognize and adequately meet a child’s needs in a developmentally and emotionally appropriate manner (Donald & Jureidini 2004).Within contemporary society however, parents are faced with the tensions of providing boundaries whilst affording children rights. This in itself brings risks and a common thread that runs through approaches to parenting is the attempt to define a threshold of acceptable parenting. Above the threshold and a parent is good enough and below is not good enough. This paper will consider what the minimum requirements are and explore different dimensions of parenting. The concept of good enough parenting will be revisited in relation to risks that parents have to take, within the context of contemporary policy related to improving outcomes for children as enshrined in the Every Child Matters: Change for Children Agendas (Department for Education and skills 2003). The current dominance of a risk management approach to safeguarding children will be addressed within the context of a ‘risk society’ and the importance of the safety and well-being of the child will be examined It will be suggested that we need to achieve a better balance of ensuring the safety of the child, meeting the child's developmental needs, and supporting family functioning if we are to help parents manage the risks.

‘Risk, Politics and the ‘Scientification’ of Political Judgement: Prisoner Release and Conflict Transformation in Northern Ireland’

Drawing on research in Northern Ireland into the process of release under the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement, this article explores the identification and classification of risk in relation to prisoners released early under the Sentences (NI) Act. The main argument is that conflict, post-conflict and transitional conditions expose more starkly the political underpinnings of risk-management strategy and the article demonstrates the particular variant of Politicized Risk Assessment (PRA) recently used in the release of prisoners in Northern Ireland

Information Disclosure, Market Discipline and the Management of Bank Capital: Evidence from the Chinese Financial Sector

Is there evidence that market forces effectively discipline risk management behaviour within Chinese financial institutions? This study analyses information from a comprehensive sample of Chinese banks over the 1998-2008 period. Market discipline is captured through the impact of four sets of factors namely, market concentration, interbank deposits, information disclosure, and ownership structure. We find some evidence of a market disciplining effect in that: (i) higher (lower) levels of market concentration lead banks to operate with a lower (higher) capital buffer; (ii) joint-equity banks that disclose more information to the public maintain larger capital ratios; (iii) full state ownership reduces the sensitivity of changes in a bank's capital buffer to its level of risk;(iv) banks that release more transparent financial information hold more capital against their non-performing loans. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.