Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.

Effect of a COL1A1 Sp1 Binding Site Polymorphism on Arterial Pulse Wave Velocity: An Index of Compliance.

Reduced arterial compliance precedes changes in blood pressure, which may be mediated through alterations in vessel wall matrix composition. We investigated the effect of the collagen type I-1 gene (COL1A1) +2046G>T polymorphism on arterial compliance in healthy individuals. We recruited 489 subjects (251 men and 238 women; mean age, 22.6±1.6 years). COL1A1 genotypes were determined using polymerase chain reaction and digestion by restriction enzyme Bal1. Arterial pulse wave velocities were measured in 3 segments, aortoiliac (PWVA), aortoradial (PWVB), and aorto-dorsalis-pedis (PWVF), as an index of compliance using a noninvasive optical method. Data were available for 455 subjects. The sample was in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium with genotype distributions and allele frequencies that were not significantly different from those reported previously. The T allele frequency was 0.22 (95% confidence interval, 0.19 to 0.24). Two hundred eighty-three (62.2%) subjects were genotype GG, 148 (35.5%) subjects were genotype GT, and 24 (5.3%) subjects were genotype TT. A comparison of GG homozygotes with GT and TT individuals demonstrated a statistically significant association with arterial compliance: PWVF 4.92±0.03 versus 5.06±0.05 m/s (ANOVA, P=0.009), PWVB 4.20±0.03 versus 4.32±0.04 m/s (ANOVA, P=0.036), and PWVA 3.07±0.03 versus 3.15±0.03 m/s (ANOVA, P=0.045). The effects of genotype were independent of age, gender, smoking, mean arterial pressure, body mass index, family history of hypertension, and activity scores. We report an association between the COL1A1 gene polymorphism and arterial compliance. Alterations in arterial collagen type 1A deposition may play a role in the regulation of arterial compliance

Reduced vision in older adults with age related macular degeneration interferes with ability to care for self and impairs role as carer

Aim: To study the relation between visual impairment and ability to care for oneself or a dependant in older people with age related macular degeneration (AMD). Method: Cross sectional study of older people with visual impairment due to AMD in a specialised retinal service clinic. 199 subjects who underwent visual function assessment (fully corrected distance and near acuity and contrast sensitivity in both eyes), followed by completion of a package of questionnaires dealing with general health status (SF36), visual functioning (Daily Living Tasks Dependent on Vision, DLTV) and ability to care for self or provide care to others. The outcome measure was self reported ability to care for self and others. Three levels of self reported ability to care were identified—inability to care for self (level 1), ability to care for self but not others (level 2), and ability to care for self and others (level 3). Results: People who reported good general health status and visual functioning (that is, had high scores on SF36 and DLTV) were more likely to state that they were able to care for self and others. Similarly people with good vision in the better seeing eye were more likely to report ability to care for self and others. People with a distance visual acuity (DVA) worse than 0.4 logMAR (Snellen 6/15) had less than 50% probability of assigning themselves to care level 3 and those with DVA worse than 1.0 logMAR (Snellen 6/60) had a probability of greater than 50% or for assigning themselves to care level 1. Regression analyses with level of care as the dependent variable and demographic factors, DLTV subscales, and SF36 dimensions as the explanatory variables confirmed that the DLTV subscale 1 was the most important variable in the transition from care level 3 to care level 2. The regression analyses also confirmed that the DLTV subscale 2 was the most important in the transition from care level 3 to care level 1. Conclusions: Ability to care for self and dependants has a strong relation with self reported visual functioning and quality of life and is adversely influenced by visual impairment. The acuity at which the balance of probability shifts in the direction of diminished ability to care for self or others is lower than the level set by social care agencies for provision of support. These findings have implications for those involved with visual rehabilitation and for studies of the cost effectiveness of interventions in AMD.