On Effort Estimation in Software Projects

Software engineering is criticized as not being engineering or 'well-developed' science at all. Software engineers seem not to know exactly how long their projects will last, what they will cost, and will the software work properly after release. Measurements have to be taken in software projects to improve this situation. It is of limited use to only collect metrics afterwards. The values of the relevant metrics have to be predicted, too. The predictions (i.e. estimates) form the basis for proper project management. One of the most painful problems in software projects is effort estimation. It has a clear and central effect on other project attributes like cost and schedule, and to product attributes like size and quality. Effort estimation can be used for several purposes. In this thesis only the effort estimation in software projects for project management purposes is discussed. There is a short introduction to the measurement issues, and some metrics relevantin estimation context are presented. Effort estimation methods are covered quite broadly. The main new contribution in this thesis is the new estimation model that has been created. It takes use of the basic concepts of Function Point Analysis, but avoids the problems and pitfalls found in the method. It is relativelyeasy to use and learn. Effort estimation accuracy has significantly improved after taking this model into use. A major innovation related to the new estimationmodel is the identified need for hierarchical software size measurement. The author of this thesis has developed a three level solution for the estimation model. All currently used size metrics are static in nature, but this new proposed metric is dynamic. It takes use of the increased understanding of the nature of the work as specification and design work proceeds. It thus 'grows up' along with software projects. The effort estimation model development is not possible without gathering and analyzing history data. However, there are many problems with data in software engineering. A major roadblock is the amount and quality of data available. This thesis shows some useful techniques that have been successful in gathering and analyzing the data needed. An estimation process is needed to ensure that methods are used in a proper way, estimates are stored, reported and analyzed properly, and they are used for project management activities. A higher mechanism called measurement framework is also introduced shortly. The purpose of the framework is to define and maintain a measurement or estimationprocess. Without a proper framework, the estimation capability of an organization declines. It requires effort even to maintain an achieved level of estimationaccuracy. Estimation results in several successive releases are analyzed. It isclearly seen that the new estimation model works and the estimation improvementactions have been successful. The calibration of the hierarchical model is a critical activity. An example is shown to shed more light on the calibration and the model itself. There are also remarks about the sensitivity of the model. Finally, an example of usage is shown.

The border of reproductive control: undocumented immigration as a risk factor for unintended pregnancy in Switzerland.

Unintended pregnancies reflect an unmet need for family planning, and are part of health disparities. Using the only database to inquire about pregnancy intention among women in Switzerland, this study examined the relationship between immigrant documentation and unintended pregnancy (UP). Among pregnant women presenting to a Swiss hospital, we compared pregnancy intention between documented and undocumented women. We used logistic regression to examine whether undocumented status was associated with UP after adjusting for other significant predictors. Undocumented women had more unintended pregnancies (75.2 vs. 20.6 %, p = 0.00). Undocumented status was associated with UP after adjustment (OR 6.23, 95 % CI 1.83-21.2), as was a history of psychological problems (OR 4.09, 95 % CI 1.32-12.7). Contraception non-use was notably associated with lower odds of UP (OR 0.01, 95 % CI 0.004-0.04). Undocumented status was significantly associated with UP, even after adjusting for well-recognized risk factors. This highlights the tremendous risk of undocumented status on UP among women in Switzerland.

Right ventricular dysfunction in children and adolescents conceived by assisted reproductive technologies.

Assisted reproductive technologies (ART) predispose the offspring to vascular dysfunction, arterial hypertension, and hypoxic pulmonary hypertension. Recently, cardiac remodeling and dysfunction during fetal and early postnatal life have been reported in offspring of ART, but it is not known whether these cardiac alterations persist later in life and whether confounding factors contribute to this problem. We, therefore, assessed cardiac function and pulmonary artery pressure by echocardiography in 54 healthy children conceived by ART (mean age 11.5 ± 2.4 yr) and 54 age-matched (12.2 ± 2.3 yr) and sex-matched control children. Because ART is often associated with low birth weight and prematurity, two potential confounders associated with cardiac dysfunction, only singletons born with normal birth weight at term were studied. Moreover, because cardiac remodeling in infants conceived by ART was observed in utero, a situation associated with increased right heart load, we also assessed cardiac function during high-altitude exposure, a condition associated with hypoxic pulmonary hypertension-induced right ventricular overload. We found that, while at low altitude cardiac morphometry and function was not different between children conceived by ART and control children, under the stressful conditions of high-altitude-induced pressure overload and hypoxia, larger right ventricular end-diastolic area and diastolic dysfunction (evidenced by lower E-wave tissue Doppler velocity and A-wave tissue Doppler velocity of the lateral tricuspid annulus) were detectable in children and adolescents conceived by ART. In conclusion, right ventricular dysfunction persists in children and adolescents conceived by ART. These cardiac alterations appear to be related to ART per se rather than to low birth weight or prematurity.

Reproductive morphology in Mediterranean Seirospora giraudyi (Ceramiales, Rhodophyta)

This paper presents a detailed description of the reproductive characters of Mediterranean Seirospora giraudyi based on fresh material collected in the northwestern coast of Spain. Vegetative cells are uninucleate. The plant is monoecious. Spermantangial parent’s cells are clustered on modified dwarf determinate filaments, usually situated on adaxial surfaces of branches. One to four spermatia are formed by elongation and proximal divisions of the spermatangial parent cells. Spermatium with a nucleus situated ina mec. The thallus is procarpic. The four-celled carpogonial branch is initially L-shaped, and it is situated on a periaxial supporting fertile axial cell. The mature carpogonial branch is U-shaped and the supporting cell and second periaxial cell enlarge and divide transversely to reproduce a pair uninicleate auxiliary cell. The nucleus in the ferlilized carpogonium divides twice and the carpogonium cleaves vertically into two cells that, turn, cut off a pair of uninucleate connecting cells that fuse with the auxiliary cells on opposite sides; the diploid nuclei in the connecting cells divide at the site of fusion and one of the nuclei enters the auxiliary cell white the other is extruded. Each auxiliary cell gives to a terminal primary gonimolobe initials. Gonimolobes form lax chains of carposporangia. As the gonimoblasts mature, both lobes of the foot cell which is situated on the supporting cell elongate the upper one secondary connecting with the supporting cell, and the lower one with the fertile axial cell. The gonimoblasts are subtended at maturity by one to several clusters of involucral flaments. Seirospora is currently placed in the tribe Euptiloteae; however the reproductive character of S.giraudyi is dentical to those described for the Cañllithamnieae. Molecular studies are needed to confirm the taxonomic position of S.giraudyi as well as that of the other species placed Seirospora

The reproductive cycle of the sea urchin Arbacia lixula in northwest mediterranean: potential influence of temperature and photoperiod

We studied the reproductive cycle of the sea urchin Arbacia lixula in a subtidal population from northeast Spain over four years using a gonadosomatic index (GSI) and gonad histology. Our results show that the GSI of A. lixula follows a seasonal cycle which peaks in May-July and attains its lowest values in October-November every year. The time course of the GSI matched closely the photoperiod cycle. We also found a remarkable inter-annual variability in the maximum value of GSI, which correlated with mean water temperature during the gonad growth period (winter and spring). Gonad histology was also in agreement with a single gametogenic cycle per year in this species. We explored the application of circular statistics to present and analyse gonadal development data, which allowed us to adequately handle the high intra-individual variability detected, with several developmental stages commonly found within the same gonad. The picture that emerged is one of a gametogenic timing driven by photoperiod, while the amount of reproductive output is determined by temperature. This is coherent with the tropical origin of the species and lends support to recent warnings about an increase in the abundance of this species in the Mediterranean as a result of global warming, with associated increased impact potential in sublittoral communities.

Evolutionary steps in the reproductive biology of Annonaceae

Flowers of Annonaceae are characterized by fleshy petals, many stamens with hard connective shields and numerous carpels with sessile stigmas often covered by sticky secretions. The petals of many representatives during anthesis form a closed pollination chamber. Protogynous dichogamy with strong scent emissions especially during the pistillate stage is a character of nearly all species. Scent emissions can be enhanced by thermogenesis. The prevailing reproductive system in the family seems to be self-compatibility. The basal genus Anaxagorea besides exhibiting several ancestral morphological characters has also many characters which reappear in other genera. Strong fruit-like scents consisting of fruit-esters and alcohols mainly attract small fruit-beetles (genus Colopterus, Nitidulidae) as pollinators, as well as several other beetles (Curculionidae, Chrysomelidae) and fruit-flies (Drosophilidae), which themselves gnaw on the thick petals or their larvae are petal or ovule predators. The flowers and the thick petals are thus a floral brood substrate for the visitors and the thick petals of Anaxagorea have to be interpreted as an antipredator structure. Another function of the closed thick petals is the production of heat by accumulated starch, which enhances scent emission and provides a warm shelter for the attracted beetles. Insight into floral characters and floral ecology of Anaxagorea, the sister group of the rest of the Annonaceae, is particularly important for understanding functional evolution and diversification of the family as a whole. As beetle pollination (cantharophily) is plesiomorphic in Anaxagorea and in Annonaceae, characters associated with beetle pollination appear imprinted in members of the whole family. Pollination by beetles (cantharophily) is the predominant mode of the majority of species worldwide. Examples are given of diurnal representatives (e.g., Guatteria, Duguetia, Annona) which function on the basis of fruit-imitating flowers attracting mainly fruit-inhabiting nitidulid beetles, as well as nocturnal species (e.g., large-flowered Annona and Duguetia species), which additionally to most of the diurnal species exhibit strong flower warming and provide very thick petal tissues for the voracious dynastid scarab beetles (Dynastinae, Scarabaeidae). Further examples will show that a few Annonaceae have adapted in their pollination also to thrips, flies, cockroaches and even bees. Although this non-beetle pollinated species have adapted in flower structure and scent compounds to their respective insects, they still retain some of the specialized cantharophilous characters of their ancestors.

Relationship between diet and reproductive success in the Israeli barn owl

The effect of diet on barn owl (Tyto alba) breeding biology has been well studied in the temperate regions but not in the more arid Middle East. In temperate regions, barn owls are darker colored and mainly prey upon Cricetidae rodents, whereas in arid regions, they are lighter colored and prey to a larger degree upon Muridae rodents. In this study we analyzed the diet and breeding success of 261 barn owl pairs nesting in Israel. The reproductive success of barn owls declined from March to August, and fledged more young when they consumed a larger proportion of social voles (Microtus socialis guentheri). Although the diet of the lighter colored barn owls in Israel comprises more Muridae than that of the darker morphs in temperate regions, in both regions the number of barn owl young increases with an increased proportion of voles in the diet.