The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Recovery of employment: towards a sustainable model

The adverse effects on Latin America and the Caribbean of the global economic and financial crisis, the worst since the 1930s, have been considerably less than was once feared. Although a run of growth was cut short in 2009 and regional output shrank by 1.9%, the impact of the crisis was limited by the application of countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies by many of the region’s governments. The recovery in the economies, particularly in South America, has gone hand-in-hand with the rapid resurgence of the emerging economies of Asia, with all the favourable consequences this has had for global trade. A similar pattern may be observed regarding the impact of the crisis on labour markets in Latin America and the Caribbean. Although millions of people lost their jobs or had to trade down to lower-quality work, levels of employment (including formal employment) fell by less than originally foreseen. At the same time, real wages rose slightly in a context of falling inflation. The labour market thus stabilized domestic demand, and this contributed to the recovery that began in many countries in late 2009. Improved international trade and financing conditions, and the pick-up in domestic demand driven by macroeconomic policies, have led different commentators to estimate growth in the region’s economy at some 6% in 2010. As detailed in the first part of this edition of the Bulletin, the upturn has been manifested at the regional level by the creation of formal employment, a rise in the employment rate, a decline in joblessness and a moderate increase in real wages. Specifically, it is estimatedthat the regional unemployment rate will have dropped by 0.6 percentage points, from 8.1% in 2009 to 7.5% in 2010. The performance of different countries and subregions has been very uneven, however. On the one hand, there is Brazil, where high economic growth has been accompanied by vigorous creation of formal jobs and the unemployment rate has dropped to levels not seen in a long time. Other countries in South America have benefited from strong demand for natural resources from the Asian countries. Combined with higher domestic demand, this has raised their economic growth rates and had a positive impact on employment indicators. On the other hand, the recovery is still very weak in certain countries and subregions, particularly in the Caribbean, with employment indicators continuing to worsen.Thus, the recovery in the region’s economy in 2010 may be characterized as dynamic but uneven. Growth estimates for 2011 are less favourable. The risks associated with the imbalances in the world economy and the withdrawal of countercyclical fiscal packages are likely to cause the region to grow more slowly in 2011. Accordingly, a small further reduction of between 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points in the unemployment rate is projected for 2011. However, these indicators of recovery do not guarantee growth with decent work in the long term. To bolster the improvement in labour market indicators and generate more productive employment and decent work, the region’s countries need to strengthen their macroeconomic policies, improve regional and global policy coordination, identify and remove bottlenecks in the labour market itself and enhance instruments designed to promote greater equality. Like the rest of the world, the Latin American and Caribbean region is also confronted with the challenge of transforming the way it produces so that its economies can develop along tracks that are sustainable in the long term. Climate change and the consequent challenge of developing and strengthening low-carbon production and consumption patterns will also affect the way people work. A great challenge ahead is to create green jobs that combine decent work with environmentally sustainable production patterns. From this perspective, the second part of this Bulletin discusses the green jobs approach, offering some information on the challenges and opportunities involved in moving towards a sustainable economy in the region and presenting a set of options for addressing environmental issues and the repercussions of climate change in the world of work. Although the debate about the green jobs concept is fairly new in the region, examples already exist and a number of countries have moved ahead with the application of policies and programmes in this area. Costa Rica has formulated a National Climate Change Strategy, for example, whose foremost achievements include professional training in natural-resource management. In Brazil, fuel production from biomass has increased and social housing with solar panelling is being built. A number of other countries in the region are making progress in areas such as ecotourism, sustainable agriculture and infrastructure for climate change adaptation, and in formalizing the work of people who recycle household waste. The shift towards a more environmentally sustainable economy may cause jobs to be destroyed in some economic sectors and created in others. The working world will inevitably undergo major changes. If the issue is approached by way of social dialogue and appropriate public policies, there is a chance to use this shift to create more decent jobs, thereby contributing to growth in the economy, the construction of higher levels of equality and protection for the environment.

Socio-demographic analysis of youth in the Caribbean- a three country case study

Many Caribbean youth are doing reasonably well. They live in loving and caring families, attend school and are involved in various social activities in their communities. The health and well-being of the children and youth1 in the Caribbean is, and has been, the centre of attention of many studies, meetings and policy directives set at the regional, subregional and national levels. Programmes have been put in place to address the basic needs of young children in the areas of health and education and to provide guidance and directives to youth and adolescents in the area of professional formation and transition to adulthood. Critical issues such as reproductive health and family planning combined with access to education and information on these topics have been promoted to some extent. And finally, the Caribbean is known for rather high school enrolment rates in primary education that hardly show any gender disparities. While the situation is still good for some, growing numbers of children and youth cannot cope anymore with the challenges experienced quite early in their lives. Absent parents, instable care-taking arrangements, violence and aggression subjected to at home, in schools and among their friends, lack of a perspective in schools and the labour-market, early sexual initiation and teenage pregnancies are some of those issues faced by a rising number of young persons in this part of the world. Emotional instability, psychological stress and increased violence are one of the key triggers for increased violence and involvement in crime exhibited by ever younger youth and children. Further, the region is grappling with rising drop-out rates in secondary education, declining quality schooling in the classrooms and increasing numbers of students who leave school without formal certification. Youth unemployment in the formal labour market is high and improving the quality of professional formation along with the provision of adequate employment opportunities would be critical to enable youth to complete consistently and effectively the transition into adulthood and to take advantage of the opportunities to develop and use their human capital in the process. On a rather general note, the region does not suffer from a shortage of policies and programmes to address the very specific needs of children and youth, but the prominent and severe lack of systematic analysis and monitoring of the situation of children, youth and young families in the Caribbean does not allow for targeted and efficient interventions that promise successful outcomes on the long term. In an effort to assist interested governments to fill this analytical gap, various initiatives are underway to enhance data collection and their systematic analysis2. Population and household censuses are conducted every decade and a variety of household surveys, such as surveys of living conditions, labour force surveys and special surveys focusing on particular sub-groups of the population are conducted, dependent on the resources available, to a varying degree in the countries of the region. One such example is the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF)-funded Multi-Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) that assess the situation of children and youth in a country. Over the past years and at present, UNICEF has launched a series of surveys in a number of countries in the Caribbean3. But more needs to be done to ensure that the data available is analyzed to provide the empirical background information for evidence-based policy formulation and monitoring of the efficiency and effectiveness of the efforts undertaken.

Inclusão no mercado de trabalho: analisando a relação escola e empregabilidade de pessoas com deficiências

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Il contratto a Tempo Determinato nel lavoro privato e pubblico. Assetti e linee di tendenza in un mercato del lavoro dinamico e globale

L’elaborato, dopo una ricostruzione della disciplina normativa presente in materia di contratto a tempo determinato in Italia e nei principali ordinamenti europei (Spagna, Francia ed Inghilterra), affronta i più rilevanti nodi problematici dell’istituto, in riferimento al settore privato e pubblico, mettendo in luce le principali querelle dottrinali e giurisprudenziali. Particolare attenzione è dedicata alle questioni insorte a seguito delle ultime modifiche normative di cui al c.d. Collegato lavoro (legge n. 183/2010), sino al decisivo intervento della Corte Costituzionale, con pronuncia n. 303 del 9 novembre 2011, che ha dichiarato legittima la disposizione introduttiva dell’indennità risarcitoria forfetizzata, aggiuntiva rispetto alla conversione del contratto. Tutte le problematiche trattate hanno evidenziato le difficoltà per le Corti Superiori, così come per i giudici comunitari e nazionali, di trovare una linea univoca e condivisa nella risoluzione delle controversie presenti in materia. L’elaborato si chiude con alcune riflessioni sui temi della flessibilità e precarietà nel mondo del lavoro, attraverso una valutazione quantitativa e qualitativa dell’istituto, nell’intento di fornire una risposta ad alcuni interrogativi: la flessibilità è necessariamente precarietà o può essere letta quale forma speciale di occupazione? Quali sono i possibili antidoti alla precarietà? In conclusione, è emerso come la flessibilità possa rappresentare un problema per le imprese e per i lavoratori soltanto nel lungo periodo. La soluzione è stata individuata nell’opportunità di investire sulla formazione. Si è così ipotizzata una nuova «flessibilità socialmente ed economicamente sostenibile», da realizzarsi tramite l’ausilio delle Regioni e, quindi, dei contributi del Fondo europeo di sviluppo regionale: al lavoratore, in tal modo, potrà essere garantita la continuità con il lavoro tramite percorsi formativi mirati e, d’altro canto, il datore di lavoro non dovrà farsi carico dei costi per la formazione dei dipendenti a tempo determinato.

Politiche attive del lavoro e ammortizzatori sociali in deroga: misure difensive o di promozione delle capacità?

Il tema generale del dottorato di ricerca è l'analisi delle politiche di attivazione in Italia durante la crisi economica. La combinazione di politiche attive e passive del lavoro viene interpretata ricorrendo al quadro teorico proposto da Amartya Sen e basato sul concetto di capability. Abbiamo considerato le misure nazionali e regionali nel quadro delle linee guida europee e analizzato le tendenze verso l'empowerment dei beneficiari di politiche del lavoro attraverso il concetto di capability proposto da Sen. La ricerca empirica ha utilizzato diversi strumenti per la raccolta dei dati: focus group, un questionario inviato ad un campione di 1.200 lavoratori, e interviste.

Educational mismathc in Italian an European labour markets (starting from the UK)

The present doctoral thesis is structured as a collection of three essays. The first essay, “SOC(HE)-Italy: a classification for graduate occupations” presents the conceptual basis, the construction, the validation and the application to the Italian labour force of the occupational classification termed SOC(HE)-Italy. I have developed this classification under the supervision of Kate Purcell during my period as a visiting research student at the Warwick Institute for Emplyment Research. This classification links the constituent tasks and duties of a particular job to the relevant knowledge and skills imparted via Higher Education (HE). It is based onto the SOC(HE)2010, an occupational classification first proposed by Kate Purcell in 2013, but differently constructed. In the second essay “Assessing the incidence and wage effects of overeducation among Italian graduates using a new measure for educational requirements” I utilize this classification to build a valid and reliable measure for job requirements. The lack of an unbiased measure for this dimension constitutes one of the major constraints to achieve a generally accepted measurement of overeducation. Estimations of overeducation incidence and wage effects are run onto AlmaLaurea data from the survey on graduates career paths. I have written this essay and obtained these estimates benefiting of the help and guidance of Giovanni Guidetti and Giulio Pedrini. The third and last essay titled “Overeducation in the Italian labour market: clarifying the concepts and addressing the measurement error problem” addresses a number of theoretical issues concerning the concepts of educational mismatch and overeducation. Using Istat data from RCFL survey I run estimates of the ORU model for the whole Italian labour force. In my knowledge, this is the first time ever such model is estimated on such population. In addition, I adopt the new measure of overeducation based onto the SOC(HE)-Italy classification.

Essays in policy evaluation

This dissertation consists of three empirical studies that aim at providing new evidence in the field of public policy evaluation. In particular, the first two chapters focus on the effects of the European cohesion policy, while the third chapter assesses the effectiveness of Italian labour market incentives in reducing long-term unemployment. The first study analyses the effect of EU funds on life satisfaction across European regions , under the assumption that projects financed by structural funds in the fields of employment, education, health and environment may affect the overall quality of life in recipient regions. Using regional data from the European Social Survey in 2002-2006, it resorts to a regression discontinuity design, where the discontinuity is provided by the institutional framework of the policy. The second study aims at estimating the impact of large transfers from a centralized authority to a local administration on the incidence of white collar crimes. It merges a unique dataset on crimes committed in Italian municipalities between 2007 and 2011 with information on the disbursement of EU structural funds in 2007-2013 programming period, employing an instrumental variable estimation strategy that exploits the variation in the electoral cycle at local level. The third study analyses the impact of an Italian labour market policy that allowed firms to cut their labour costs on open-ended job contracts when hiring long-term unemployed workers. It takes advantage of a unique dataset that draws information from the unemployment lists in Veneto region and it resorts to a regression discontinuity approach to estimate the effect of the policy on the job finding rate of long-term unemployed workers.

Social Policy Facing the Problems of Youth Employment

Rumiana Stoilova (Bulgaria). Social Policy Facing the Problems of Youth Employment. Ms. Stoilova is a researcher in the Institute of Sociology in Sofia and worked on this project from October 1996 to September 1998. This project involved collecting both statistical and empirical data on the state of youth employment in Bulgaria, which was then compared with similar data from other European countries. One significant aspect was the parallel investigation of employment and unemployment, which took as a premise the continuity of professional experience where unemployment is just a temporary condition caused by external and internal factors. These need to be studied and changed on a systematic basis so as to create a more favourable market situation and to improve individuals' resources for improving their market opportunities. A second important aspect of the project was an analysis of the various entities active on the labour market, including government and private institutions, associations of unemployed persons, of employers or of trade unions, all with their specific legal powers and interests, and of the problems in communication between these. The major trends in youth unemployment during the period studied include a high proportion of the registered unemployed who are not eligible for social assistance, a lengthening of the average period of unemployment, an increase in the percentage of people who are unemployed for the first time and an increasing percentage of these who are not eligible for assistance, particularly among newly registered young people. At the same time the percentage of those for who work has been found is rising and during the last three years an increasing number of the unemployed have started some independent economic activity. Regional differences are also considerable and in the case of the Haskovo region represent a danger of losing the youngest generation, with resulting negative demographic effects. One major weakness of the existing institutional structure is the large scale of the black labour market, with clear negative implications for the young people drawn into it. The role of non-governmental organisations in providing support and information for the unemployed is growing and the government has recently introduced special preferences for organisations offering jobs to unemployed persons. Social policy in the labour market has however been largely restricted to passive measures, mostly because of the risk that poverty poses to people continuously excluded from the labour market. Among the active measures taken, well over half are concerned with providing jobs for the unemployed and there are very limited programmes for providing or improving qualifications. The nature of youth employment in Bulgaria can be seen in the influence of sustained structures (generation) and institutions (family and school). Ms. Stoilova studied the situation of the modern generation through a series of profiles, mostly those of continuously unemployed and self-employed persons, but also distinguishing between students and the unemployed, and between high school and university students. The different categories of young people were studied in separate mini-studies and the survey was carried out in five town in order to gather objective and subjective information on the state of the labour market in the different regions. She conducted interviews with several hundred young people covering questions of family background, career plans, attitudes to the labour situation and government measures to deal with it, and such questions as independence, mobility, attitude to work, etc. The interviews with young people unemployed for a long period of time show the risk involved in starting work and its link with dynamics of economic development. Their approval of structural reforms, of the financial restrictions connected with the introduction of a currency board and the inevitability of unemployment was largely declarative. The findings indicate that the continuously unemployed need practical knowledge and skills to "translate" the macroeconomic realities in concrete alternatives of individual work and initiative. The unemployed experience their exclusion from the labour market not only as a professional problem but also as an existential threat, of poverty, forced mobility and dependence on their parents' generation. The exclusion from the market of goods and services means more than just exercising restraint in their consumption, as it places restrictions on their personal development. Ms. Stoilova suggests that more efficient ways of providing financial aid and mobilisation are needed to counteract the social disintegration and marginalisation of the continuously unemployed. In measuring the speed of reform, university students took both employment opportunities and the implementation of the meritocratic principle in employment into account. When offered a hypothetical choice between a well-paid job and work in one's own profession, 62% would prefer opt for the well-paid job and for working for a company that offered career opportunities rather than employment in a family or own company. While most see the information gained during their studies as useful and interesting, relatively few see their education as competitive on a wider level and many were pessimistic about employment opportunities based on their qualifications. Very similar attitudes were found among high school students, with differences being due rather to family and personal situations. The unemployed, on the other hand, placed greater emphasis on possibilities of gaining or improving qualifications on a job and for the opportunities it would offer for personal contacts. High school students tend to attribute more significance to opportunities for personal accomplishment. A significant difference that five times fewer high school students were willing to work for state-owned companies, and many fewer expected to find permanent employment or to find a job in the area where they lived, Within the family situation, actual support for children seems to be higher than the feelings of confidence expressed in interviews. The attitudes of the families towards past experience seems to be linked with their ability to cope with the difficulties of the present, with those families which show an optimistic and active attitude towards the future having a greater respect for parents experience and tolerance in communication between parents and children.

New Prosperity for Rural Regions

The project deals with problems of marginal rural regions in the period of transformation in Slovenia and the Czech Republic. The course of the transformation, its impact, related border problems and environmental aspects were studied in seven model regions of the two countries, using geographical, cartographic, sociological, historical and remote-sensing methods. The opinions of both the local populations and the local authorities were also taken into account. The most important problems observed included the deepening of marginality, the worsening situation in the labour market, structural demographic degradation of the most marginal settlements and a lack of development programmes. In the Czech Republic the state had no effective regional policy up to the time of the research. Possibilities for future prosperity include exploitation of human and other local resources, the elaboration of local and regional programmes capable of gaining financial support and the utilisation of tranquility and the positive environmental situation. It is the local people who usually represent the main wealth of marginal regions and care for them is the task of the local authorities.

Are special economic zones a curse on those "chosen" to be evicted? : evidence form West Bengal, India

Using data from a self-administered survey of 1,017 households we assess the long-term impact of establishing a special economic zone, on those who are exogenously selected to be displaced. We find those who are displaced suffer from lower land compensation and lack of adequate property rights. There is also some evidence of lower labour market participation among those who are displaced. However, in the long term, across measurable welfare indicators, we do not find that displaced households are significantly different from other households. One source of this resilience is through employment at the special economic zone – which is higher among displaced households compared to other households. Another factor that contributed to the absence of differences is spill-over effects; which made access to employment, education and other facilities about homogenous across displaced and non-displaced households.

Understanding traders' regional arbitage : the case of rice traders in Antananarivo, Madagascar

Many studies find that agricultural markets in developing countries are poorly integrated spatially. Traders' regional arbitrage plays a key role in integrating markets across space. We investigate the performance of regional arbitrage and the associated obstacles for rice traders in Antananarivo, Madagascar. On the basis of a trader-level biweekly survey spanning 2012–2013, we find that traders are not fully exploiting the regional arbitrage opportunities: most of them fail to purchase from the cheapest district and are paying higher prices than those in the cheapest district. One apparent obstacle is obtaining price information from many different regions. To reduce search costs, we provided regional price information via SMS to randomly selected traders, but found that this had a null-effect on improving arbitrage performance. Traders tend to concentrate on trading with a few fixed districts, even if they are informed about cheaper prices in other new districts, because they worry about quality uncertainty and the trustworthiness of new partners. These findings suggest that not only transmission of price information but also issues related to produce quality and matching prevent the performance of arbitrage and market integration.

Migraciones interregionales en España (1960-1989): cambios y barreras

En este trabajo se analizan los cambios en el patrón de las migraciones interiores españolas a lo largo del período 1960-1989. De forma preliminar y de acuerdo con las teorías explicativas de los flujos migratorios, se contrasta econométricamente la consistencia de estos cambios con la existencia de sistemas regionales económicamente desequilibrados versus sistemas regionales con diferencias compensadoras. Como resultado, se encuentra que a pesar de la reciente intensificación de las migraciones interiores y a diferencia de lo sucedido en otras etapas y bajo otras circunstancias, ahora no se debería confiar en que los movimientos migratorios puedan contribuir al acercamiento a la media nacional de las regiones con tasas de desempleo más elevadas. Esta vía podría haberse agotado en la medida en que el peso de las barreras procedentes de los mercados de trabajo y de los mercados inmobiliarios es creciente y, paradójicamente, ha generado flujos inte-rregionales equilibrados y no polarizados. Si, además, la posibilidad de que la emigración cumpla un papel dinamizador del ajuste económico se ve afectada por el componente de desempleo de los trabajadores que se desplazan, entonces las políticas públicas no deberían centrarse en la incentivación de los flujos de forma indiscriminada sino, más bien, en los aspectos microeconómicos referentes a la disponibilidad de información, la orientación y la capacitación de los potenciales trabajadores emigrantes.

A memetic algorithm for the delineation of local labour markets

Given a territory composed of basic geographical units, the delineation of local labour market areas (LLMAs) can be seen as a problem in which those units are grouped subject to multiple constraints. In previous research, standard genetic algorithms were not able to find valid solutions, and a specific evolutionary algorithm was developed. The inclusion of multiple ad hoc operators allowed the algorithm to find better solutions than those of a widely-used greedy method. However, the percentage of invalid solutions was still very high. In this paper we improve that evolutionary algorithm through the inclusion of (i) a reparation process, that allows every invalid individual to fulfil the constraints and contribute to the evolution, and (ii) a hillclimbing optimisation procedure for each generated individual by means of an appropriate reassignment of some of its constituent units. We compare the results of both techniques against the previous results and a greedy method.

Tiempo de desplazamiento al trabajo y desajuste educativo en el mercado de trabajo español

En este trabajo se analiza cómo el tiempo de trayecto y las características de los mercados laborales locales influyen en el desajuste puesto de trabajo- nivel educativo del individuo, basado en la hipótesis de que los individuos que tienen un mayor tiempo de trayecto al trabajo y mejores condiciones en mercado laboral se asocian a una menor incidencia de la sobreeducación. La sobreeducación afecta a 17 % de los trabajadores en España, y se eleva al 22,4 % para los trabajadores menores de 35 años. El análisis se basa en los datos individuales de los trabajadores españoles que se refiere al período inicial de la crisis económica mundial (2007-2010). La variable dependiente, desajuste educativo-puesto se mide mediante el método subjetivo, basado en las respuestas del individuo a la pregunta de cómo ajusta su nivel de educación a las necesidades del trabajo que actualmente ocupan. La variable de interés son: (a) el tiempo de trayecto, es decir, el tiempo que tarda el individuo en llegar a su trabajo, y (b) dos variables que tienen en cuenta de las condiciones del mercado local: la tasa regional de desempleo (esta variable se refieren a la división territorial de España a nivel NUTS 2 y desglose por sexo y nivel de educación de cada Comunidad Autónoma sobre la base de las cifras medias anuales de la Encuesta de Población Activa española (EPA) para el período 2007-2010) y el tamaño del municipio. Se incluyen las variables de control habituales relativas al puesto de trabajo y variables dummy de los años de la muestra. Los resultados sugieren que las difíciles condiciones de trabajo regionales en términos de altas tasas de desempleo pueden actuar contra el efecto hipotético de la movilidad en la reducción del desajuste educativo, por lo tanto, se obtiene a una conclusión opuesta a la planteada en algunos trabajos anteriores.

Delineating zones to increase geographical detail in individual response data files: An application to the Spanish 2011 Census of population

Due to confidentiality considerations, the microdata available from the 2011 Spanish Census have been codified at a provincial (NUTS 3) level except when the municipal (LAU 2) population exceeds 20,000 inhabitants (a requirement that is met by less than 5% of all municipalities). For the remainder of the municipalities within a given province, information is only provided for their classification in wide population intervals. These limitations, hampering territorially-focused socio-economic analyses, and more specifically, those related to the labour market, are observed in many other countries. This article proposes and demonstrates an automatic procedure aimed at delineating a set of areas that meet such population requirements and that may be used to re-codify the geographic reference in these cases, thereby increasing the territorial detail at which individual information is available. The method aggregates municipalities into clusters based on the optimisation of a relevant objective function subject to a number of statistical constraints, and is implemented using evolutionary computation techniques. Clusters are defined to fit outer boundaries at the level of labour market areas.