Essays on European economic and monetary integration

This thesis focuses on two aspects of European economic integration: exchange rate stabilization between non-euro Countries and the Euro Area, and real and nominal convergence of Central and Eastern European Countries. Each Chapter covers these aspects from both a theoretical and empirical perspective. Chapter 1 investigates whether the introduction of the euro was accompanied by a shift in the de facto exchange rate policy of European countries outside the euro area, using methods recently developed by the literature to detect "Fear of Floating" episodes. I find that European Inflation Targeters have tried to stabilize the euro exchange rate, after its introduction; fixed exchange rate arrangements, instead, apart from official policy changes, remained stable. Finally, the euro seems to have gained a relevant role as a reference currency even outside Europe. Chapter 2 proposes an approach to estimate Central Bank preferences starting from the Central Bank's optimization problem within a small open economy, using Sweden as a case study, to find whether stabilization of the exchange rate played a role in the Monetary Policy rule of the Riksbank. The results show that it did not influence interest rate setting; exchange rate stabilization probably occurred as a result of increased economic integration and business cycle convergence. Chapter 3 studies the interactions between wages in the public sector, the traded private sector and the closed sector in ten EU Transition Countries. The theoretical literature on wage spillovers suggests that the traded sector should be the leader in wage setting, with non-traded sectors wages adjusting. We show that large heterogeneity across countries is present, and sheltered and public sector wages are often leaders in wage determination. This result is relevant from a policy perspective since wage spillovers, leading to costs growing faster than productivity, may affect the international cost competitiveness of the traded sector.

A multi-regional view on aging societies accounting for the existence of non-tradable goods

This thesis assesses the question, whether accounting for non-tradable goods sectors in a calibrated Auerbach-Kotlikoff multi-regional overlapping-generations-model significantly affects this model’s results when simulating the economic impact of demographic change. Non-tradable goods constitute a major part of up to 80 percent of GDP of modern economies. At the same time, multi-regional overlapping-generations-models presented by literature on demographic change so far ignored their existence and counterfactually assumed perfect tradability between model regions. Moreover, this thesis introduces the assumption of an increasing preference share for non-tradable goods of old generations. This fact-based as-sumption is also not part of models in relevant literature. rnThese obvious simplifications of common models vis-à-vis reality notwithstanding, this thesis concludes that differences in results between a model featuring non-tradable goods and a common model with perfect tradability are very small. In other words, the common simplifi-cation of ignoring non-tradable goods is unlikely to lead to significant distortions in model results. rnIn order to ensure that differences in results between the ‘new’ model, featuring both non-tradable and tradable goods, and the common model solely reflect deviations due to the more realistic structure of the ‘new’ model, both models are calibrated to match exactly the same benchmark data and thus do not show deviations in their respective baseline steady states.rnA variation analysis performed in this thesis suggests that differences between the common model and a model with non-tradable goods can theoretically be large, but only if the bench-mark tradable goods sector is assumed to be unrealistically small.rnFinally, this thesis analyzes potential real exchange rate effects of demographic change, which could occur due to regional price differences of non-tradable goods. However, results show that shifts in real exchange rate based on these price differences are negligible.rn

Formation of Exchange Rates on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling

Galina Kovaleva. The Formation of the Exchange Rate on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling. The Russian financial market is fast becoming one of the major sectors of the Russian economy. Assets have been increasing steadily, while new market segments and new financial market instruments have emerged. Kovaleva attempted to isolate the factors influencing exchange rates, determine patterns in the dynamic changes to the rouble/dollar exchange rate, construct models of the processes, and on the basis of these activities make forecasts. She studied the significance of economic indicators influencing the rouble/dollar exchange rate at different times, and developed multi-factor econometric models. In order to reveal the inner structure of the financial indicators and to work out ex-post forecasts for different time intervals, she carried out a series of calculations with the aim of constructing trend-cyclical (TC) and harmonic models, and Box and Jenkins models. She found that: 1. The Russian financial market is dependant on the rouble/dollar exchange rate. Its dynamics are formed under the influence of the short-term state treasury notes and government bonds markets, interbank loans, the rouble/DM exchange rate, the inflation rate, and the DM/dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate is influenced by sales on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange and the mechanism of those sales. 2. The TC model makes it possible to conduct an in-depth study of the structure of the processes and to make forecasts of the dynamic changes to currency indicators. 3. The Russian market is increasingly influenced by the world currency market and its prospects are of crucial interest for the world financial community.

Disparate Wages in a Globalized World

This study uses wage data from the UBS Prices and Earnings survey to highlight Disparate Wages in a Globalized World from di↵erent perspectives. This wage data is characterised by remarkable consistency over the last 40 years, as well as unusual global comparability. In the first chapter we analyse the convergence hypothesis for purchasing power adjusted wages across the world for 1970 to 2009. The results provide solid evidence for the hypotheses of absolute and conditional convergence in real wages, with the key driver being faster overall growing wage levels in lower wage countries compared to higher wage countries. At the same time, the highest skilled professions have experienced the highest wage growth, while low skilled workers’ wages have lagged, thus no convergence in this sense is found between skill groups. In the second chapter we examine deviations in international wages from Factor Price Equalisation theory (FPE). Following an approach analogous to Engel (1993) we find that deviations from FPE are more likely driven by the higher variability of wages between countries than by the variability of di↵erent wages within countries. With regard to the traditional analysis of the real exchange rate and the Balassa-Samuelson assumptions our analysis points to a larger impact on the real exchange rate likely stemming from the movements in the real exchange rate of tradables, and only to a lesser extent from the lack of equalisation of wages within countries. In the third chapter our results show that India’s economic and trade liberalisation, starting in the early 1990s, had very di↵erential impacts on skill premia, both over time and over skill levels. The most striking result is the large increase in wage inequality of high-skilled versus low-skilled professions. Both the synthetic control group method and the di↵erence-in-di↵erences (DID) approach suggest that a significant part of this increase in wage inequality can be attributed to India’s liberalisation.

Monetary Policy in a Portfolio Balance Model with Endogenous Physical Capital

We develop a portfolio balance model with real capital accumulation. The introduction of real capital as an asset as well as a good produced and demanded by firms enriches extant portfolio balance models of exchange rate determination. We show that expansionary monetary policy causes exchange rate overshooting, not once, but twice; the secondary repercussion comes through the reaction of firms to changed asset prices and the firms' decisions to invest in real capital. The model sheds further light on the volatility of real and nominal exchange rates, and it suggests that changes in corporate sector profitability may affect exchange rates through portfolio diversification in corporate securities.

A costing exercise of provision of prevention of HIV transmission from mother to child services in Vietnam

Objectives. This dissertation focuses on estimating the cost of providing a minimum package of prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) in Vietnam from a societal perspective and discussing the issues of scaling-up the minimum package nationwide. ^ Methods. Through collection of cost-related data of PMTCT services at 22 PMTCT sites in 5 provinces (Hanoi, Quang Ninh, Thai Nguyen, Hochiminh City, and An Giang) in Vietnam, the research investigates the item cost of each service in minimum PMTCT packages and the actual cost per PMTCT site at different organizational levels including central, provincial, and district. Next, the actual cost per site at each organizational level is standardized by adjusting for HIV prevalence rate to arrive at standardized costs per site. This study then uses the standardized costs per site to project, by different scenarios, the total cost to scale-up the PMTCT program in Vietnam. ^ Results. The cost for HIV tests, infant formula, and salary of health workers are consistently found to be the biggest expenditures in the PMTCT minimum package program across all organizational levels. Annual cost for drugs for prophylaxis treatment, operating and capital, and training costs are not substantial (less than 5% of total costs at all levels). The actual annual estimated cost for a PMTCT site at the central level is nearly VND 1.9 billion or US$ 107,650 (exchange rate US$ 1 = VND 17,500) while the annual cost for a provincial site is VND 375 million or US$ 21,400. The annual cost for a district site is VND 139 million (∼US$ 8,000). ^ The estimated total annual cost to roll out the PMTCT minimum package to the 5 studied provinces is approximately US$ 1.1 million. If the PMTCT program is to be scaled-up to 14 provinces until 2008 and up to 40 provinces through the end of 2010 as planned by the Ministry of Health, it would cost the health system an approximate annual amount of US$ 2.1 million and US$ 5.04 million, respectively. The annual cost for scaling-up the PMTCT minimum package nationwide is around US$ 7.6 million. Meanwhile, the total annual cost to implement PMTCT minimum packages to achieve PMTCT national targets in 2010 (providing counseling service to 90% of all pregnant women; 60% of them will receive HIV tests and 100% of HIV (+) mother and their newborn will receive prophylaxis treatment) would be US$ 6.1 million. ^ Recommendations. This study recommends: (1) the Ministry of Health of Vietnam should adjust its short-term national targets to a more feasible and achievable level given the current level of available resources; (2) a detailed budget for scaling-up the PMTCT program should be developed together with the national PMTCT action plan; (3) the PMTCT scaling-up plan developed by the Ministry of Health should focus on coverage of high prevalence population and quality of services provided rather than number of physical provinces reached; (4) exclusive breastfeeding strategy should be promoted as part of the PMTCT program; and (5) for a smooth and effective rolling out of PMTCT services nationwide, development of a national training plan and execution of this plan must precede any other initiations of the PMTCT scaling-up plan. ^

Crisis cambiaria en Argentina

El análisis de la articulación entre el proceso de valorización exitosa de capital y la tendencia a la desvalorización de las mercancías se aplica a una de las manifestaciones de la crisis argentina: la devaluación del peso. Se estudia la relación entre la determinación del tipo de cambio y la valorización del capital. Se discuten las tendencias concretas de la economía argentina en la década de 1990 y se muestra cómo la devaluación de 2001-2002 fue producto necesario del propio proceso de valorización exitosa del periodo anterior (1991-1998) y su crisis.

Crisis cambiaria en Argentina

El análisis de la articulación entre el proceso de valorización exitosa de capital y la tendencia a la desvalorización de las mercancías se aplica a una de las manifestaciones de la crisis argentina: la devaluación del peso. Se estudia la relación entre la determinación del tipo de cambio y la valorización del capital. Se discuten las tendencias concretas de la economía argentina en la década de 1990 y se muestra cómo la devaluación de 2001-2002 fue producto necesario del propio proceso de valorización exitosa del periodo anterior (1991-1998) y su crisis.

Crisis cambiaria en Argentina

El análisis de la articulación entre el proceso de valorización exitosa de capital y la tendencia a la desvalorización de las mercancías se aplica a una de las manifestaciones de la crisis argentina: la devaluación del peso. Se estudia la relación entre la determinación del tipo de cambio y la valorización del capital. Se discuten las tendencias concretas de la economía argentina en la década de 1990 y se muestra cómo la devaluación de 2001-2002 fue producto necesario del propio proceso de valorización exitosa del periodo anterior (1991-1998) y su crisis.

Trade, Exchange Rates, and Macroeconomic Dynamics in East Asia: Why the Electronics Cycle Matters

Against the background of increasing regional trade and investment, there is growing interest in monetary and macroeconomic policy coordination in East Asia. Although there is a sizable literature on macroeconomic linkages among East Asian countries and the potential merit of policy coordination in the region, the existing studies tend to examine these issues exclusively in terms of macroeconomic variables and do not consider how these aggregate variables are influenced by one prominent feature of a number of East Asian economies: their heavy dependence on the electronics industry. Although active engagement in the global electronics industry has been a powerful growth engine for the Asian countries, it has also left their economies vulnerable to cyclical fluctuations in the world electronics market. As the cycle of the global electronics industry exerts profound impacts on the medium-term dynamics of the Asian economies, it is imperative to take an explicit account of its influence when studying the way in which the regional economies are linked to one another and how this relationship can be altered by a specific policy initiative. We illustrate the importance of this point by examining recent studies on: (1) trade competition between China andother Asian countries and the role of the Chinese renminbi therein; and (2) the effect offluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate on the regional economies.

FTA in international finance : impacts of exchange rates on FTA utilization

This paper investigates how exchange rates affect the utilization of a free trade agreement (FTA) scheme in trading. Changes in exchange rates affect FTA utilization by two ways. The first way is by changing the excess profits gained by utilizing the FTA scheme, and the second way is by promoting the compliance of rules of origin. Our theoretical models predict that the depreciation of exporters' currency against that of importers enhances the likelihood of FTA utilization through those two channels. Furthermore, our empirical analysis, which is based on rich tariff-line-level data on the utilization of FTA schemes in Korea's imports from ASEAN countries, supports the theoretical prediction. We also show that the effects are smaller for more differentiated products.

Transition from black to official markets for foreign exchange in Myanmar

We address the puzzle why the black market for foreign exchange thrives in Myanmar despite the successful unification of multiple exchange rates. A closer look at the black market reveals that its enduring competitiveness stems from its lower transaction costs. A question arising from this observation is how the official market, namely banks, can compete with and replace the black market. Our empirical analysis based on an original questionnaire survey of private export firms regarding their choices of currency trading modes suggests that banks can attract exporters by exploiting the economies of scope between currency trading and lending.

Determinants of inbound tourists in Cambodia : a dynamic panel data approach

Understanding the determinants of tourism demand is crucial for the tourism sector. This paper develops a dynamic panel model to examine the determinants of inbound tourists to Siem Reap airport, Phnom Penh airport, and land and waterway borders in Cambodia. Consistent with the consumer theory of tourism consumption, a 10% increase in the origin country GDP per capita is predicted to increase the number of tourist visits to Siem Reap airport by 5.8%. A 10% increase in the real exchange rate between the origin country and Cambodia is predicted to decrease the number of tourist visits by 0.89%. In contrast, the number of foreign tourists in a previous period has little effect on the number of foreign tourists in the current period. Additionally, the determinants are different by the mode of entry to Cambodia.

ANALISANDO A RELAÇÃO DOS VOLUMES DE EXPORTAÇÃO E DE IMPORTAÇÃO, PIB, TAXAS DE CÂMBIO E INFLAÇÃO NO PERÍODO DE 2004 A 2014.

Esta dissertação visa deslumbrar uma análise macroeconômica do Brasil, especialmente no que se refere à relação dos índices mensais dos volumes das exportações e das importações com os volumes mensais do PIB, da Taxa SELIC e as Taxas de Câmbio, conforme dados coletados no período de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2014, através de pesquisa literária referente aos históricos sobre cada conceito envolvido no âmbito da macroeconomia das varáveis estudadas. Foi realizado um estudo de caso embasado em dados de sites governamentais, no período delimitado, empregando-se o método de regressão linear, com base na Teoria da correlação de Pearson, demonstrando os resultados obtidos no período do estudo para as varáveis estudadas. Desta maneira, conseguiu-se estudar e analisar como as variáveis dependentes (resposta): volume das exportações e volume das importações estão relacionadas com as varáveis independentes (explicativas): PIB, Taxa Selic e taxa de Câmbio. Os resultados apurados no presente estudo permitem identificar que existe correlação moderada e negativa, quando analisadas a Taxa Selic e a Taxa de Câmbio com os volumes das exportações e das importações, enquanto o PIB apresenta correlação forte e positiva na análise com os volumes das exportações e das importações