Smooth Transition Patterns in the Realized Stock- Bond Correlation

Abstract: We analyze the realized stock-bond correlation. Gradual transitions between negative and positive stock-bond correlation is accommodated by the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The changes in regime are de…ned by economic and …financial transition variables. Both in sample and out-of- sample results document that STR models with multiple transition variables outperform STR models with a single transition variable. The most important transition variables are the short rate, the yield spread, and the VIX volatility index. Keywords: realized correlation; smooth transition regressions; stock-bond correlation; VIX index JEL Classifi…cations: C22; G11; G12; G17

A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR), under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

. Phenotype/genotype correlation associated with a novel nonsense Glu20stop mutation in the Rp2 gene in a three-generation family with x-linked retinitis pigmentosa

Purpose: To assess the phenotype of patients in a large 3 generation Swiss family with X-linked retinitis pigmentosa (XLRP) due to a novel nonsense mutation Glu20stop in RP2 gene and to correlate with the genotype. Methods: 6 affected patients (1 male, 5 females, age range: 23 - 73 years) were assessed with a complete ophthalmologic examination. All had fundus autofluorescence images, standardised electroretinography, Goldmann visual fields and Optical Coherence Tomography. In addition, medical records of 2 affected male patients were reviewed. Blood sample was taken for molecular analysis. Results: The male patients were severely affected at a young age with early macular involvement. The youngest 23 y old male had also high myopia and vision of less than 0.05 according to Snellen EDTRS chart bilaterally. All 5 female carriers had some degree of rod-cone dystrophy, but no macular involvement. The visual acuity was 1.0 in the younger carriers, while the 73 years old had VA of 0.5. Two females had mild myopia (range -0.75 to -2) and one had anisometropia of 3.5D, with the more severely affected eye being myopic. Three out of 5 female carriers had optic nerve drusen. Conclusions: We report a novel Glu20stop mutation in RP2 gene, which is a rare cause of XLRP. Our description of severe phenotype in male patients with high myopia and early macular atrophy confirms previous reports. Unlike previous reports, all our female carriers had RP, but not macular involvement or high myopia. The identifiable phenotype for RP2-XLRP aids in clinical diagnosis and targeted genetic screening.

Solitary fibrous tumor of the lateral ventricle: CT appearances and pathologic correlation with follow-up.

Intracranial solitary fibrous tumors are rare, and intraventricular fibrous tumors are even more unusual. We report a case of solitary fibrous tumor in the region of trigone and body of the left lateral ventricle and discuss the clinical presentation, CT characteristics, and histopathologic features with 1-year follow-up. We speculate that the tumor arose from the perivascular connective tissue of the choroid plexus.

The Rank Lecture: Has imaging told us anything new about human visual organisation?

The functional architecture of the occipital cortex is being studied with increasing detail. Functional and structural MR based imaging are altering views about the organisation of the human visual system. Recent advances have ranged from comparative studies with non-human primates to predictive scanning. The latter multivariate technique describes with sub-voxel resolution patterns of activity that are characteristic of specific visual experiences. One can deduce what a subject experienced visually from the pattern of cortical activity recorded. The challenge for the future is to understand visual functions in terms of cerebral computations at a mesoscopic level of description and to relate this information to electrophysiology. The principal medical application of this new knowledge has focused to a large extent on plasticity and the capacity for functional reorganisation. Crossmodality visual-sensory interactions and cross-correlations between visual and other cerebral areas in the resting state are areas of considerable current interest. The lecture will review findings over the last two decades and reflect on possible roles for imaging studies in the future.

Multiplex real-time PCR for the diagnosis of malaria: correlation with microscopy.

Malaria is generally diagnosed by microscopy and rapid antigen testing. Molecular methods become more widely used. In the present study, the contribution of a quantitative multiplex malaria PCR was investigated. We assessed: (i) the agreement between PCR-based identification and microscopy and (ii) the correlation between the parasite load as determined by quantitative PCR and by microscopy. For 83 patients positive by microscopy for Plasmodium spp., the first EDTA-blood sample was tested by multiplex PCR to confirm smear-based species identification. Parasite load was assessed daily using both microscopy and PCR. Among the 83 patients tested, one was positive by microscopy only and 82 were positive by microscopy and PCR. Agreement between microscopy and PCR for the identification at the species level was 89% (73/82). Six of the nine discordant results corresponded to co-infections by two or three species and were attributed to inaccurate morphological identification of mixed cases. The parasite load generally decreased rapidly after treatment had been started, with similar decay curves being obtained using both microscopy and PCR. Our PCR proved especially useful for identifying mixed infections. The quantification obtained by PCR closely correlated with microscopy-based quantification and could be useful for monitoring treatment efficacy, at least in clinical trials.

Beurling-Landau densities of weighted Fekete sets and correlation kernel estimates

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Lack of Correlation between Seminal and Plasma HIV-1 Viral Loads is Associated with CD4T Cell Depletion in Therapy-naïve HIV-1+ Patients

The present study was conducted to investigate a possible correlation between plasma (PVL) and seminal viral load (SVL) on treatment-naïve HIV-1-infected patients in Vitória, ES, Brazil. We also evaluated whether the progressive immunosuppression associated with HIV disease (as evidenced by declining CD4 T cell counts) has any impact on the correlation between PVL and SVL HIV-1. Viral load on paired blood and semen samples from 56 consecutive treatment-naïve patients were evaluated and compared to CD4 cell counts. Viral load and T cell counts (cells/µl) were determined by NASBA and by flow cytometry, respectively. Overall, a strong positive correlation between PVL and SVL (rho = 0.438, p = 0.001) was observed. However, when patients were grouped according to their CD4 counts, this correlation was only significant among patients with CD4 counts > 200 cells/µl. Results presented here demonstrate the existence of a strong correlation between PVL and SVL on patients with CD4 cell counts > 200 cells/µl, suggesting that this association may correlate with disease progression.

Correlation of male genital filaments and female spermathecal ducts in New World sand flies of the Lutzomyia intermedia species complex (Diptera: Psychodidae, Phlebotominae)

The lengths of the male genital filaments and female spermathecal ducts were measured in phlebotomine sand flies of the Lutzomyia intermedia species complex and the ratios between these characters calculated. Ratios for L. intermedia s. s. from Northeast vs Southeast Brazil (Espírito Santo and Minas Gerais), Espírito Santo/Minas Gerais vs Rio de Janeiro/São Paulo and L. intermedia vs L. neivai were significantly different at P < 0.1, 0.05 and 0.01 respectively when compared using ANOVA. The spermathecal ducts and genital filaments of L. intermedia were significantly longer than those of L. neivai (P < 0.01) and could be used to differentiate these species. The taxonomic and biological significance of these differences is discussed.

Antibiotic-dependent correlation between drug-induced killing and loss of luminescence in Streptococcus gordonii expressing luciferase.

Measuring antibiotic-induced killing relies on time-consuming biological tests. The firefly luciferase gene (luc) was successfully used as a reporter gene to assess antibiotic efficacy rapidly in slow-growing Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We tested whether luc expression could also provide a rapid evaluation of bactericidal drugs in Streptococcus gordonii. The suicide vectors pFW5luc and a modified version of pJDC9 carrying a promoterless luc gene were used to construct transcriptional-fusion mutants. One mutant susceptible to penicillin-induced killing (LMI2) and three penicillin-tolerant derivatives (LMI103, LMI104, and LMI105) producing luciferase under independent streptococcal promoters were tested. The correlation between antibiotic-induced killing and luminescence was determined with mechanistically unrelated drugs. Chloramphenicol (20 times the MIC) inhibited bacterial growth. In parallel, luciferase stopped increasing and remained stable, as determined by luminescence and Western blots. Ciprofloxacin (200 times the MIC) rapidly killed 1.5 log10 CFU/ml in 2-4 hr. Luminescence decreased simultaneously by 10-fold. In contrast, penicillin (200 times the MIC) gave discordant results. Although killing was slow (&lt; or = 0.5 log10 CFU/ml in 2 hr), luminescence dropped abruptly by 50-100-times in the same time. Inactivating penicillin with penicillinase restored luminescence, irrespective of viable counts. This was not due to altered luciferase expression or stability, suggesting some kind of post-translational modification. Luciferase shares homology with aminoacyl-tRNA synthetase and acyl-CoA ligase, which might be regulated by macromolecule synthesis and hence affected in penicillin-inhibited cells. Because of resemblance, luciferase might be down-regulated simultaneously. Luminescence cannot be universally used to predict antibiotic-induced killing. Thus, introducing reporter enzymes sharing mechanistic similarities with normal metabolic reactions might reveal other effects than those expected.

Telomerase activity and human telomerase reverse transcriptase mRNA expression in soft tissue tumors: correlation with grade, histology, and proliferative activity.

Telomerase activity (TA) is detected in most human cancers but, with few exceptions, not in normal somatic cells. Little is known about TA in soft tissue tumors. We have examined a series of benign and malignant soft tissue tumors for TA using the telomerase repeat amplification protocol assay. Analysis of the expression of the human telomerase reverse transcriptase was also carried out using RT-PCR. TA was undetectable in benign lesions (15 of 15) and low-grade sarcomas (6 of 6) and was detectable in 50% (19 of 38) of intermediate-/high-grade sarcomas. Although the presence of TA in soft tissue tumors is synonymous with malignancy, it is neither a reliable method in making the distinction between reactive/benign and malignant (especially low-grade) lesions nor a reliable marker of tumor aggressiveness. Leiomyosarcomas and storiform/pleomorphic malignant fibrous histiocytomas rarely showed TA, irrespective of their grade. A strong correlation between human telomerase reverse transcriptase mRNA expression and TA was observed, supporting the close relationship between both parameters. No significant relationship was observed between proliferative activity (as assessed by MIB-1 immunolabeling) and TA. We verified that the absence of telomerase expression was not due to the presence of telomerase inhibitors and therefore alternative mechanism(s) for cell immortalization, yet to be determined, seem to be involved in the development and/or maintenance of some soft tissue sarcomas.

CD30 in PTCLS: correlation between RNA and protein levels in a large european series from the LYSA

Introduction: CD22 is expressed on most B-non-Hodgkin lymphomas (NHL); inotuzumab ozogamicin (INO) is an anti-CD22 antibody conjugated to calicheamicin. This study evaluated the safety and tolerability of INO plus R-CVP in patients (pts) with relapsed/refractory CD22+ B-NHL. Efficacy data were also collected. Methods: Part 1 of this open-label study identified a maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of INO 0.8mg/m,2 on day 2 plus R-CVP (rituximab 375mg/m,2 cyclophosphamide 750mg/m,2 and vincristine 1.4mg/m,2 on day 1; prednisone 40mg/m,2 on days 1-5) every 21 days. Subsequently, pts were enrolled in the MTD confirmation cohort (part 2, n = 10), which required a dose-limiting toxicity rate of <33% in cycle 1 and <4 pts discontinuing prior to cycle 3 due to an adverse event (AE) in the MTD expansion cohort (part 3, n = 22), which explored preliminary activity. Results: Parts 2 and 3 enrolled 32 pts: 16 pts with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, 15 with follicular lymphoma and one with mantle cell lymphoma. Median age was 64.5 years (range 44-81 years); 34% of pts had 1 prior regimen, 34% had 2, 28% had ≥3 and 3% had none (median 2; range 0-6).Median treatment duration was five cycles (range 1-6). Part 2 confirmed the MTD as standard dose R-CVP plus INO 0.8mg/m,2; 2/10 pts had a dose-limiting toxicity (grade 3 increased ALT/AST, grade 4 neutropenia requiring G-CSF). One pt discontinued because of an AE prior to cycle 3. Common treatment-related AEs were thrombocytopenia (78%), neutropenia (66%), fatigue (50%), leukopenia (50%), nausea (41%) and lymphopenia (38%); common grade 3/4 AEs were neutropenia (63%), thrombocytopenia (53%), leukopenia (38%) and lymphopenia (31%). There was one case of treatment-related fatal pneumonia with grade 4 neutropenia. Ten pts discontinued treatment due to AEs; thrombocytopenia/delayed platelet recovery was the leading cause (grade 1/2, n = 6; grade 3/4, n = 3). Objective response rate (ORR) was 77% (n = 24/31 evaluable pts), including 26% (n=8/31) with complete response (CR); three pts had stable disease. Of the pts with follicular lymphoma, ORR was 100% (n = 15/15), including seven pts with CR. Of the pts with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, ORR was 60% (n = 9/16), including one pt with CR. Conclusions: Results suggest that INOplus R-CVP has acceptable toxicity and promising activity in relapsed/refractory CD22+ B-NHL. The most common grade 3/4 AEs were hematologic. Follow-up for progression-free and overall survival is ongoing.

Measuring an effect size from dichotomized data : contrasted results whether using a correlation or an odds-ratio

It is well known that dichotomizing continuous data has the effect to decrease statistical power when the goal is to test for a statistical association between two variables. Modern researchers however are focusing not only on statistical significance but also on an estimation of the "effect size" (i.e., the strength of association between the variables) to judge whether a significant association is also clinically relevant. In this article, we are interested in the consequences of dichotomizing continuous data on the value of an effect size in some classical settings. It turns out that the conclusions will not be the same whether using a correlation or an odds ratio to summarize the strength of association between the variables: Whereas the value of a correlation is typically decreased by a factor pi/2 after each dichotomization, the value of an odds ratio is at the same time raised to the power 2. From a descriptive statistical point of view, it is thus not clear whether dichotomizing continuous data leads to a decrease or to an increase in the effect size, as illustrated using a data set to investigate the relationship between motor and intellectual functions in children and adolescents

Trypanosoma cruzi: blood parasitism kinetics and their correlation with heart parasitism intensity during long-term infection of Beagle dogs

The goals of the present study were to evaluate the kinetics of blood parasitism by examination of fresh blood, blood culture (BC) and PCR assays and their correlation with heart parasitism during two years of infection in Beagle dogs inoculated with the Be-78, Y and ABC Trypanosoma cruzi strains. Our results showed that the parasite or its kDNA is easily detected during the acute phase in all infected animals. On the other hand, a reduced number of positive tests were verified during the chronic phase of the infection. The frequency of positive tests was correlated with T. cruzi strain. The percentage of positive BC and blood PCR performed in samples from animals inoculated with Be-78 and ABC strains were similar and significantly larger in relation to animals infected with the Y strain.Comparison of the positivity of PCR tests performed using blood and heart tissue samples obtained two years after infection showed two different patterns associated with the inoculated T. cruzi strain: (1) high PCR positivity for both blood and tissue was observed in animals infected with Be-78 or ABC strains; (2) lower and higher PCR positivity for the blood and tissue, respectively, was detected in animals infected with Y strains. These data suggest that the sensitivity of BC and blood PCR was T. cruzi strain dependent and, in contrast, the heart tissue PCR revealed higher sensitivity regardless of the parasite stock.