On being balanced in an unbalanced world

This paper examines the case of a procurement auction for a single project, in which the breakdown of the winning bid into its component items determines the value of payments subsequently made to bidder as the work progresses. Unbalanced bidding, or bid skewing, involves the uneven distribution of mark-up among the component items in such a way as to attempt to derive increased benefit to the unbalancer but without involving any change in the total bid. One form of unbalanced bidding for example, termed Front Loading (FL), is thought to be widespread in practice. This involves overpricing the work items that occur early in the project and underpricing the work items that occur later in the project in order to enhance the bidder's cash flow. Naturally, auctioners attempt to protect themselves from the effects of unbalancing—typically reserving the right to reject a bid that has been detected as unbalanced. As a result, models have been developed to both unbalance bids and detect unbalanced bids but virtually nothing is known of their use, success or otherwise. This is of particular concern for the detection methods as, without testing, there is no way of knowing the extent to which unbalanced bids are remaining undetected or balanced bids are being falsely detected as unbalanced. This paper reports on a simulation study aimed at demonstrating the likely effects of unbalanced bid detection models in a deterministic environment involving FL unbalancing in a Texas DOT detection setting, in which bids are deemed to be unbalanced if an item exceeds a maximum (or fails to reach a minimum) ‘cut-off’ value determined by the Texas method. A proportion of bids are automatically and maximally unbalanced over a long series of simulated contract projects and the profits and detection rates of both the balancers and unbalancers are compared. The results show that, as expected, the balanced bids are often incorrectly detected as unbalanced, with the rate of (mis)detection increasing with the proportion of FL bidders in the auction. It is also shown that, while the profit for balanced bidders remains the same irrespective of the number of FL bidders involved, the FL bidder's profit increases with the greater proportion of FL bidders present in the auction. Sensitivity tests show the results to be generally robust, with (mis)detection rates increasing further when there are fewer bidders in the auction and when more data are averaged to determine the baseline value, but being smaller or larger with increased cut-off values and increased cost and estimate variability depending on the number of FL bidders involved. The FL bidder's expected benefit from unbalancing, on the other hand, increases, when there are fewer bidders in the auction. It also increases when the cut-off rate and discount rate is increased, when there is less variability in the costs and their estimates, and when less data are used in setting the baseline values.

Employee perceptions regarding the effectiveness of occupational road safety initiatives

A range of risk management initiatives have been introduced in organisations in attempt to reduce occupational road incidents. However a discrepancy exists between the initiatives that are frequently implemented in organisations and the initiatives that have demonstrated scientific merit in improving occupational road safety. Given that employees’ beliefs may facilitate or act as a barrier to implementing initiatives, it is important to understand whether initiatives with scientific merit are perceived to be effective by employees. To explore employee perceptions pertaining to occupational road safety initiatives, a questionnaire was administered to 679 employees sourced from four Australian organisations. Participants ranged in age from 18 years to 65 years (M = 42, SD = 11). Participants rated 35 initiatives based on how effective they thought they would be in improving road safety in their organisation. The initiatives perceived by employees to be most effective in managing occupational road risks comprised: making vehicle safety features standard e.g. passenger airbags; practical driver skills training; and investigation of serious vehicle incidents. The initiatives perceived to be least effective in managing occupational road risks comprised: signing a promise card commitment to drive safely; advertising the organisation’s phone number on vehicles for complaints and compliments; and consideration of driving competency in staff selection process. Employee perceptions were analysed at a factor level and at an initiative level. The mean scores for the three extracted factors revealed that employees believed occupational road risks could best be managed by the employer implementing engineering and human resource methods to enhance road safety. Initiatives relating to employer management of identified risk factors were perceived to be more effective than feedback or motivational methods that required employees to accept responsibility for their driving safety. Practitioners can use the findings from this study to make informed decisions about how they select, manage and market occupational safety initiatives.

Foundations of International Climate Law : Objectives, principles and methods

This chapter explores the objectives, principle and methods of climate law. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) lays the foundations of the international regime by setting out its ultimate objectives in Article 2, the key principles in Article 3, and the methods of the regime in Article 4. The ultimate objective of the regime – to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference – is examined and assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are considered when seeking to understand the definition of this concept. The international environmental principles of: state sovereignty and responsibility, preventative action, cooperation, sustainable development, precaution, polluter pays and common but differentiated responsibility are then examined and their incorporation within the international climate regime instruments evaluated. This is followed by an examination of the methods used by the mitigation and adaptation regimes in seeking to achieve the objective of the UNFCCC. Methods of the mitigation regime include: domestic implementation of policies, setting of standards and targets and allocation of rights, use of flexibility mechanisms, and reporting. While it is noted that methods of the adaptation regime are still evolving, the latter includes measures such as impact assessments, national adaptation plans and the provision of funding.

Review of statistical methods for disease mapping

Cancer poses an undeniable burden to the health and wellbeing of the Australian community. In a recent report commissioned by the Australian Institute for Health and Welfare(AIHW, 2010), one in every two Australians on average will be diagnosed with cancer by the age of 85, making cancer the second leading cause of death in 2007, preceded only by cardiovascular disease. Despite modest decreases in standardised combined cancer mortality over the past few decades, in part due to increased funding and access to screening programs, cancer remains a significant economic burden. In 2010, all cancers accounted for an estimated 19% of the country's total burden of disease, equating to approximately $3:8 billion in direct health system costs (Cancer Council Australia, 2011). Furthermore, there remains established socio-economic and other demographic inequalities in cancer incidence and survival, for example, by indigenous status and rurality. Therefore, in the interests of the nation's health and economic management, there is an immediate need to devise data-driven strategies to not only understand the socio-economic drivers of cancer but also facilitate the implementation of cost-effective resource allocation for cancer management...

Guerrilla research tactics: alternative research methods

This case-study explores alternative and experimental methods of research data acquisition, through an emerging research methodology, ‘Guerrilla Research Tactics’ [GRT]. The premise is that the researcher develops covert tactics for attracting and engaging with research participants. These methods range between simple analogue interventions to physical bespoke artefacts which contain an embedded digital link to a live, interactive data collecting resource, such as an online poll, survey or similar. These artefacts are purposefully placed in environments where the researcher anticipates an encounter and response from the potential research participant. The choice of design and placement of artefacts is specific and intentional. DESCRIPTION: Additional information may include: the outcomes; key factors or principles that contribute to its effectiveness; anticipated impact/evidence of impact. This case-study assesses the application of ‘Guerrilla Research Tactics’ [GRT] Methodology as an alternative, engaging and interactive method of data acquisition for higher degree research. Extending Gauntlett’s definition of ‘new creative methods… an alternative to language driven qualitative research methods' (2007), this case-study contributes to the existing body of literature addressing creative and interactive approaches to HDR data collection. The case-study was undertaken with Masters of Architecture and Urban Design research students at QUT, in 2012. Typically students within these creative disciplines view research as a taxing and boring process, distracting them from their studio design focus. An obstacle that many students face, is acquiring data from their intended participant groups. In response to these challenges the authors worked with students to develop creative, fun, and engaging research methods for both the students and their research participants. GRT are influenced by and developed from a combination of participatory action research (Kindon, 2008) and unobtrusive research methods (Kellehear, 1993), to enhance social research. GRT takes un-obtrusive research in a new direction, beyond the typical social research methods. The Masters research students developed alternative methods for acquiring data, which relied on a combination of analogue design interventions and online platforms commonly distributed through social networks. They identified critical issues that required action by the community, and the processes they developed focused on engaging with communities, to propose solutions. Key characteristics shared between both GRT and Guerrilla Activism, are notions of political issues, the unexpected, the unconventional, and being interactive, unique and thought provoking. The trend of Guerrilla Activism has been adapted to: marketing, communication, gardening, craftivism, theatre, poetry, and art. Focusing on the action element and examining elements of current trends within Guerrilla marketing, we believe that GRT can be applied to a range of research areas within various academic disciplines.

A spectroscopic comparison of YBCO superconductors synthesised by solid-state and co-precipitation methods

Raman spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction (XRD), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) have been used to compare samples of YBa2Cu3O7 (YBCO) synthesised by the solid-state method and a novel co-precipitation technique. XRD results indicate that YBCO prepared by these two methods are phase pure, however the Raman and SEM results show marked differences between these samples.

Numerical methods for strong solutions of stochastic differential equations : an overview

This paper gives a review of recent progress in the design of numerical methods for computing the trajectories (sample paths) of solutions to stochastic differential equations. We give a brief survey of the area focusing on a number of application areas where approximations to strong solutions are important, with a particular focus on computational biology applications, and give the necessary analytical tools for understanding some of the important concepts associated with stochastic processes. We present the stochastic Taylor series expansion as the fundamental mechanism for constructing effective numerical methods, give general results that relate local and global order of convergence and mention the Magnus expansion as a mechanism for designing methods that preserve the underlying structure of the problem. We also present various classes of explicit and implicit methods for strong solutions, based on the underlying structure of the problem. Finally, we discuss implementation issues relating to maintaining the Brownian path, efficient simulation of stochastic integrals and variable-step-size implementations based on various types of control.

High strong order explicit Runge-Kutta methods for stochastic ordinary differential equations

The pioneering work of Runge and Kutta a hundred years ago has ultimately led to suites of sophisticated numerical methods suitable for solving complex systems of deterministic ordinary differential equations. However, in many modelling situations, the appropriate representation is a stochastic differential equation and here numerical methods are much less sophisticated. In this paper a very general class of stochastic Runge-Kutta methods is presented and much more efficient classes of explicit methods than previous extant methods are constructed. In particular, a method of strong order 2 with a deterministic component based on the classical Runge-Kutta method is constructed and some numerical results are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach.