A tapestry of land uses and land covers typify our study site. Here, a commercial farm surrounds a new residential development.

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation through the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research program under Cooperative Agreements #DBI-0620409 and #DEB-9910514. This image is made available for non-commercial or educational use only.

Modeling the Effect of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River Flow, Kenya

Increasingly erratic flow in the upper reaches of the Mara River, has directed attention to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT and Landsat imagery were utilized in order to 1) map existing land use practices, 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on the water flux of the upper Mara River. This study found that land use change scenarios resulted in more erratic discharge while climate change scenarios had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. The model results showed the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes but land use changes reduce dry season flows which is a major problem in the basin. Deforestation increased the peak flows which translated to increased sediment loading in the Mara River.

A Modeling Approach to Determine the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River

With the flow of the Mara River becoming increasingly erratic especially in the upper reaches, attention has been directed to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool 5 (SWAT) and Landsat imagery were utilized in the upper Mara River Basin in order to 1) map existing field scale land use practices in order to determine their impact 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of rainfall (0%, ±10% and ±20%) and air temperature variations (0% and +5%) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections on the water flux of the 10 upper Mara River. This study found that the different scenarios impacted on the water balance components differently. Land use changes resulted in a slightly more erratic discharge while rainfall and air temperature changes had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. These findings demonstrate that the model results 15 show the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes. It was also shown that land use changes can reduce dry season flow which is the most important problem in the basin. The model shows also deforestation in the Mau Forest increased the peak flows which can also lead to high sediment loading in the Mara River. The effect of the land use and climate change scenarios on the sediment and 20 water quality of the river needs a thorough understanding of the sediment transport processes in addition to observed sediment and water quality data for validation of modeling results.

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: Results of a Modeling Study to Support Better Resource Management

Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

Assessing the legacy of the pine point mine: post-industrial land cover and land use

While mining is a major component of the northern Canadian economy, including the contemporary mixed economy of Aboriginal communities, it often leaves legacies of environmental and economic transformation that persist after closure. The legacies of historical mines in northern Canada challenge industry claims of sustainability. This thesis addresses how industrial mineral development and closure continue to affect local environments and economies after abandonment. The abandoned Pine Point mine in the Northwest Territories provides a case study for explaining the ongoing relationships among land cover, land use, and the post-industrial landscape. Drawing from landscape ecology and micropolitical ecology, I adopt an interdisciplinary approach to examine environmental and socioeconomic changes in the wake of industrial development and closure at Pine Point. The results show that passive reclamation is not sufficient for restoring ecological function in a subarctic environment. Land use, however, persists as land users adapt to the post-industrial landscape despite grave concern about its environmental condition. If mining is to be considered sustainable, decommissioning and reclamation must explicitly account for long-term environmental transformation as well as ongoing post-industrial land use, particularly in Aboriginal contexts.

Knowledge and Control in the Contemporary Land Rush : Making Local Land Legible and Corporate Power Applicable in Rural Sierra Leone

13/01/15 Funded by •Faculty of Management at Radboud University Nijmegen

Global Change Pressures on Soils from Land Use and Management

This work contributed to The input of PS and PCW contributes to the Belmont Forum/FACCE-JPI funded DEVIL project (NE/M021327/1) and for PS also contributes to the EU FP7 SmartSoil project (Project number: 289694)

Knowledge and Control in the Contemporary Land Rush : Making Local Land Legible and Corporate Power Applicable in Rural Sierra Leone

13/01/15 Funded by •Faculty of Management at Radboud University Nijmegen

Global Change Pressures on Soils from Land Use and Management

This work contributed to The input of PS and PCW contributes to the Belmont Forum/FACCE-JPI funded DEVIL project (NE/M021327/1) and for PS also contributes to the EU FP7 SmartSoil project (Project number: 289694)