The influence of antibacterial susceptibility and pharmacodynamics on the therapeutic response of infection

This prospective cohort study estimated how antibacterial resistance affected the time until clinical response. Relative rates of improvement and cure were estimated by proportional-hazards regression for 391 patients with culture-confirmed bacterial keratitis who had the ciprofloxacin minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) measured of the principal corneal isolate and who were treated with ciprofloxacin 0.3% solution or ointment. After adjusting for age and hypopyon status and stratifying by ulcer size, clinic, and ciprofloxacin formulation, the summary rate of clinical improvement with ciprofloxacin therapy was reduced by 42% (95% confidence limits [CL], 3%, 65%) among patients whose corneal isolate's ciprofloxacin MIC exceeded 1.0 μg/mL compared to those with more sensitive isolates. The summary rate of resolution to improvement and cure was reduced by 36% (95% CL, 11%, 53%) among corneal infections having a higher ciprofloxacin MIC. Rate ratios were modified by the size of the presenting corneal ulceration; for ulcer diameters of 4 mm or less and of more than 4 mm, improvement rate ratios were 0.56 (95% CL, 0.31, 1.02) and 0.65 (95% CL, 0.23, 1.80), respectively; resolution rate ratios were 0.63 (95% CL, 0.44, 0.91) and 0.67 (95% CL, 0.32, 1.39), respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that the summary improvement rate ratio could be maximally overestimated by 24% (95% CL, −29%, 114%) because of informative censoring or by 33% (95% CL, −21%, 126%) from loss to follow up. Based on reported corneal pharmacokinetics of topical ciprofloxacin, the probability of clinical improvement was 90% or more if the ratio of the achievable corneal ciprofloxacin concentration to the corneal isolate's ciprofloxacin MIC was above 8 or the ratio of the area under the 24-hour corneal concentration curve to the ciprofloxacin MIC was greater than 151. This study suggests that corneal infections by bacteria having a higher ciprofloxacin MIC respond more slowly to ciprofloxacin treatment than those with a lower MIC. While the rate of clinical resolution is affected by patient age and clinical severity, antimicrobial susceptibility testing of corneal cultures can indicate the relative effectiveness of antibacterial therapy. A pharmacodynamic approach to treating bacterial keratitis offers the prospect of optimal antimicrobial selection and modification. ^

The impact of depression on patient outcomes among older adults with lung cancer

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Ambient Air Pollution and Lung Cancer Risk in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Sexual Behavior Patterns and Condom Use in Newly Sexually Active Female University Students

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The outcome in Australian children with hyperinsulinism of infancy: early extensive surgery in severe cases lowers risk of diabetes

AIMS Hyperinsulinism of infancy (HI) is characterized by unregulated insulin secretion in the presence of hypoglycaemia, often resulting in brain damage. Pancreatic resection for control of hypoglycaemia is frequently resisted because of the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM). We investigated retrospectively 62 children with HI from nine Australian treatment centres born between 1972 and 1998, comparing endocrine and neurological outcome in 28 patients receiving medical therapy alone with 34 who required pancreatic resection to control their hypoglycaemia. METHODS History, treatment and clinical course were ascertained from file audit and interview. Risk of DM (hazard ratio) attributable to age at surgery (< vs. greater than or equal to 100 days at last pancreatectomy) and extent of resection (< vs. greater than or equal to 95%) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression and categorical variables compared by the chi(2) -test. Neurological outcome (normal, mild deficit or severe deficit) was derived from the most authoritative source. RESULTS Surgically treated patients had a greater birthweight, earlier presentation and higher plasma insulin levels. Of 18 infants < 100 days and 16 greater than or equal to 100 days of age at surgery, four (all greater than or equal to 100 days) became diabetic as an immediate consequence of surgery and five (two < 100 days and three greater than or equal to 100 days) became diabetic 7-18 years later. Surgery greater than or equal to 100 days and pancreatectomy greater than or equal to 95% were associated with development of diabetes (HR = 12.61, CI 1.53-104.07 and HR = 7.03, CI 1.43-34.58, respectively). Neurodevelopmental outcome was no different between the surgical and medical groups with 44% overall with neurological deficits. Patients euglycaemic within 35 days of the first symptom of hypoglycaemia (Group A) had a better neurodevelopmental outcome than those still hypoglycaemic > 35 days from first presentation (Group B) (P = 0.007). Prolonged hypoglycaemia in Group B was due either to delayed diagnosis or to need for repeat surgery because of continued hypoglycaemia. Within Group A, medically treated patients (who presented later with apparently milder disease) had a higher incidence of neurodevelopmental deficit (n = 15, four mild, three severe deficit) compared with surgically treated patients (n = 18, two mild, none severe deficit) (P < 0.025). CONCLUSIONS Poor neurodevelopmental outcome remains a major problem in hyperinsulinism of infancy. Risk of diabetes mellitus with pancreatectomy varies according to age at surgery and extent of resection. Patients presenting early with severe disease have a better neurodevelopmental outcome and lower risk of diabetes if they are treated with early extensive surgery.

Lung cancer rates in men and women with comparable histories of smoking

Background: Recent case-control studies suggest that, given equal smoking exposure, women may have a higher relative risk of developing lung cancer than men. Despite prospective data that conflict with this hypothesis, mechanistic studies to find a biologic basis for a sex difference continue. Methods: We addressed the hypothesis directly by analyzing prospective data from former and current smokers in two large cohorts-the Nurses' Health Study of women and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study of men. We calculated incidence rates and hazard ratios of lung cancer in women compared with men, adjusting for age, number of cigarettes smoked per day, age at start of smoking, and time since quitting, using Cox proportional hazards models. We also reviewed published results from prospective analyses. Results: From 1986 through 2000, 955 and 311 primary lung cancers were identified among 60 296 women and 25 397 men, respectively, who ranged in age from 40 to 79 years. Incidence rates per 100 000 person-years for women and men were 253 and 232, respectively, among current smokers and 81 and 73, respectively, among former smokers. The hazard ratio in women ever smokers compared with men was 1.11 (95% confidence interval = 0.95 to 1.31). Six published prospective cohort studies allowed assessment of comparative susceptibility to lung cancer by sex. None supported an excess risk of lung cancer for women. Conclusions: Women do not appear to have a greater susceptibility to lung cancer than men, given equal smoking exposure. Research should be focused on enhancing preventive interventions for all.

Synovial sarcoma - Towards a simplified approach to prognosis

Background: Synovial sarcoma is a high grade sarcoma that usually occurs in adults. Numerous studies have attempted to identify prognostic factors that might allow more effective treatment for particular subgroups of patients. Methods: We studied 25 histologically confirmed cases of synovial sarcoma in an attempt to identify particular patient, tumour or treatment characteristics that might have a prognostic significance using Cox proportional hazards regression modelling to identify differences in survival rates. All patients received their definitive surgical treatment from a single orthopaedic surgeon reducing the likelihood of bias related to variations in surgical technique. Results: Statistically significant higher survival rates were seen in female patients (P = 0.040) and in patients aged

Impact of gender on risk stratification by exercise and dobutamine stress echocardiography: long-term mortality in 4234 women and 6898 men

Aims Prior research is limited with regard to the diagnostic and prognostic accuracy of commonplace cardiac imaging modalities in women. The aim of this study was to examine 5-year mortality in 4234 women and 6898 men undergoing exercise or dobutamine stress echocardiography at three hospitals. Methods and results Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate time to cardiac death in this multi-centre, observational registry. Of the 11 132 patients, women had a greater frequency of cardiac risk factors (P < 0.0001). However, men more often had a history of coronary disease including a greater frequency of echocardiographic wall motion abnormalities (P < 0.0001). During 5 years of follow-up, 103 women and 226 men died from ischaernic heart disease (P < 0.0001). Echocardiographic estimates of left ventricular function (P < 0.0001) and the extent of ischaernic watt motion abnormalities (P < 0.0001) were highly predictive of cardiac death. Risk-adjusted 5-year survival was 99.4, 97.6, and 95% for exercising women with no, single, and multi-vessel ischaemia (P < 0.0001). For women undergoing dobutamine stress, 5-year survival was 95, 89, and 86.6% for those with 0, 1, and 2-3 vessel ischaemia (P < 0.0001). Exercising men had a 2.0-fold higher risk at every level of worsening ischaemia (P < 0.0001). Significantly worsening cardiac survival was noted for the 1568 men undergoing dobutamine stress echocardiography (P < 0.0001); no ischaemia was associated with 92% 5-year survival as compared with death rates of &GE; 16% for men with ischaemia on dobutamine stress echocardiography (P < 0.0001). Conclusion Echocardiographic measures of inducible wall motion abnormalities and global and regional left ventricutar function are highly predictive of long-term outcome for women and men alike.

Increased use of emergency services by older people after health screening

Background: evaluation of the 'Keep Well At Home' (KWAH) Project in West London indicated that a programme of screening persons aged 75 and over had not reduced rates of emergency attendances and admissions to hospital. However, coverage of the target population was incomplete. The present analysis addresses 'efficacy'-whether individuals who completed the screening protocol as intended did subsequently use Accident & Emergency (A&E) services less often. Methods: the target population was divided into five groups, depending on whether an individual had completed none, one or both phases of screening, and whether deviations from the protocol related to incomplete coverage or refusal to participate further. We ascertained use of emergency services before screening and for up to 3 years afterwards by linkage of records from KWAH to those of local A&E Departments. Patterns of emergency care were examined as crude races and, via proportional hazards models, after adjustment for available confounders. Results: there was an increase of 51% (95% CI 22-86%) in the crude rate of emergency admissions in the year after first-phase screening compared with the 12 months before assessment. This was most obvious in individuals deemed at high risk who also underwent the second-phase assessment (adjusted hazard ratio relative to individuals not 'at risk'= 2.33; 95% CI 1.59-3.42). Conclusions: the available data do not allow us to distinguish between several possible explanations for the paradoxical increase in use of emergency services. However, what seem to be sensible policies do not necessarily have their intended effects when implemented in practice.

Does chemotherapy improve survival in high-risk Stage I and II Merkel cell carcinoma of the skin?

Purpose: The effectiveness of synchronous carboplatin, etoposide, and radiation therapy in improving survival was evaluated by comparison of a matched set of historic control subjects with patients treated in a prospective Phase II study that used synchronous chemotherapy and radiation and adjuvant chemotherapy. Patients and Methods: Patients were included in the analysis if they had disease localized to the primary site and nodes, and they were required to have at least one of the following high-risk features: recurrence after initial therapy, involved nodes, primary size greater than 1 cm, or gross residual disease after surgery. All patients who received chemotherapy were treated in a standardized fashion as part of a Phase II study (Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group TROG 96:07) from 1997 to 2001. Radiation was delivered to the primary site and nodes to a dose of 50 Gy in 25 fractions over 5 weeks, and synchronous carboplatin (AUC 4.5) and etoposide, 80 mg/m(2) i.v. on Days 1 to 3, were given in Weeks 1, 4, 7, and 10. The historic group represents a single institution's experience from 1988 to 1996 and was treated with surgery and radiation alone, and patients were included if they fulfilled the eligibility criteria of TROG 96:07. Patients with occult cutaneous disease were not included for the purpose of this analysis. Because of imbalances in the prognostic variables between the two treatment groups, comparisons were made by application of Cox's proportional hazard modeling. Overall survival, disease-specific survival, locoregional control, and distant control were used as endpoints for the study. Results: Of the 102 patients who had high-risk Stage I and II disease, 40 were treated with chemotherapy (TROG 96:07) and 62 were treated without chemotherapy (historic control subjects). When Cox's proportional hazards modeling was applied, the only significant factors for overall survival were recurrent disease, age, and the presence of residual disease. For disease-specific survival, recurrent disease was the only significant factor. Primary site on the lower limb had an adverse effect on locoregional control. For distant control, the only significant factor was residual disease. Conclusions: The multivariate analysis suggests chemotherapy has no effect on survival, but because of the wide confidence limits, a chemotherapy effect cannot be excluded. A study of this size is inadequately powered to detect small improvements in survival, and a larger randomized study remains the only way to truly confirm whether chemotherapy improves the results in high-risk MCC. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc.

Factors determining disease duration in Alzheimer's disease:a postmortem study of 103 cases using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox regression

Factors associated with duration of dementia in a consecutive series of 103 Alzheimer's disease (AD) cases were studied using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox regression analysis (proportional hazard model). Mean disease duration was 7.1 years (range: 6 weeks-30 years, standard deviation = 5.18); 25% of cases died within four years, 50% within 6.9 years, and 75% within 10 years. Familial AD cases (FAD) had a longer duration than sporadic cases (SAD), especially cases linked to presenilin (PSEN) genes. No significant differences in duration were associated with age, sex, or apolipoprotein E (Apo E) genotype. Duration was reduced in cases with arterial hypertension. Cox regression analysis suggested longer duration was associated with an earlier disease onset and increased senile plaque (SP) and neurofibrillary tangle (NFT) pathology in the orbital gyrus (OrG), CA1 sector of the hippocampus, and nucleus basalis of Meynert (NBM). The data suggest shorter disease duration in SAD and in cases with hypertensive comorbidity. In addition, degree of neuropathology did not influence survival, but spread of SP/NFT pathology into the frontal lobe, hippocampus, and basal forebrain was associated with longer disease duration. © 2014 R. A. Armstrong.

Essays on international macroeconomics and conflict analysis

This dissertation addressed two broad problems in international macroeconomics and conflict analysis. The first problem in the first chapter looked at the behavior of exchange rate and its interaction with industry-level tradable goods prices for three countries, USA, UK and Japan. This question has important monetary policy implications. Here, I computed to what extent changes in exchange rate affected prices of consumer, producer, and export goods. I also studied the timing of these changes in these prices. My results, based on thirty-four industrial prices for USA, UK and Japan, supported the view that changes in exchange rates significantly affect prices of industrial and consumer goods. It also provided an insight to the underlying economic process that led to changes in relative prices. ^ In the second chapter, I explored the predictability of future inflation by incorporating shocks to exchange rates and clearly specified the transmission mechanisms that link exchange rates to industry-level consumer and producer prices. Employing a variety of linear and state-of-the-art nonlinear models, I also predicted growth rates of future prices. Comparing levels of inflation obtained from the above approaches showed superiority of the structural model incorporating the exchange rate pass-through effect. ^ The second broad issue addressed in the third chapter of the dissertation investigated the economic motives for conflict, manifested by rebellion and civil war for seventeen Latin American countries. Based on the analytical framework of Garfinkel, Skaperdas and Syropoulos (2004), I employed ordinal regressions and Markov switching for a panel of seventeen countries to identify trade and openness factors responsible for conflict occurrence and intensity. The results suggested that increased trade openness reduced high intensity domestic conflicts but overdependence on agricultural exports, along with a lack of income earning opportunities lead to more conflicts. Thereafter, using the Cox Proportional Hazard model I studied “conflict duration” and found that over-reliance on agricultural exports explained a major part of the length of conflicts in addition to various socio-political factors. ^

Three empirical essays on startups' survival using the Kauffman Firm Survey

This dissertation studies newly founded U.S. firms' survival using three different releases of the Kauffman Firm Survey. I study firms' survival from a different perspective in each chapter. ^ The first essay studies firms' survival through an analysis of their initial state at startup and the current state of the firms as they gain maturity. The probability of survival is determined using three probit models, using both firm-specific variables and an industry scale variable to control for the environment of operation. The firm's specific variables include size, experience and leverage as a debt-to-value ratio. The results indicate that size and relevant experience are both positive predictors for the initial and current states. Debt appears to be a predictor of exit if not justified wisely by acquiring assets. As suggested previously in the literature, entering a smaller-scale industry is a positive predictor of survival from birth. Finally, a smaller-scale industry diminishes the negative effects of debt. ^ The second essay makes use of a hazard model to confirm that new service-providing (SP) firms are more likely to survive than new product providers (PPs). I investigate the possible explanations for the higher survival rate of SPs using a Cox proportional hazard model. I examine six hypotheses (variations in capital per worker, expenses per worker, owners' experience, industry wages, assets and size), none of which appear to explain why SPs are more likely than PPs to survive. Two other possibilities are discussed: tax evasion and human/social relations, but these could not be tested due to lack of data. ^ The third essay investigates women-owned firms' higher failure rates using a Cox proportional hazard on two models. I make use of a never-before used variable that proxies for owners' confidence. This variable represents the owners' self-evaluated competitive advantage. ^ The first empirical model allows me to compare women's and men's hazard rates for each variable. In the second model I successively add the variables that could potentially explain why women have a higher failure rate. Unfortunately, I am not able to fully explain the gender effect on the firms' survival. Nonetheless, the second empirical approach allows me to confirm that social and psychological differences among genders are important in explaining the higher likelihood to fail in women-owned firms.^

Three essays on a longitudinal analysis of business start-ups using the Kauffman Firm Survey

This dissertation focused on the longitudinal analysis of business start-ups using three waves of data from the Kauffman Firm Survey. ^ The first essay used the data from years 2004-2008, and examined the simultaneous relationship between a firm's capital structure, human resource policies, and its impact on the level of innovation. The firm leverage was calculated as, debt divided by total financial resources. Index of employee well-being was determined by a set of nine dichotomous questions asked in the survey. A negative binomial fixed effects model was used to analyze the effect of employee well-being and leverage on the count data of patents and copyrights, which were used as a proxy for innovation. The paper demonstrated that employee well-being positively affects the firm's innovation, while a higher leverage ratio had a negative impact on the innovation. No significant relation was found between leverage and employee well-being.^ The second essay used the data from years 2004-2009, and inquired whether a higher entrepreneurial speed of learning is desirable, and whether there is a linkage between the speed of learning and growth rate of the firm. The change in the speed of learning was measured using a pooled OLS estimator in repeated cross-sections. There was evidence of a declining speed of learning over time, and it was concluded that a higher speed of learning is not necessarily a good thing, because speed of learning is contingent on the entrepreneur's initial knowledge, and the precision of the signals he receives from the market. Also, there was no reason to expect speed of learning to be related to the growth of the firm in one direction over another.^ The third essay used the data from years 2004-2010, and determined the timing of diversification activities by the business start-ups. It captured when a start-up diversified for the first time, and explored the association between an early diversification strategy adopted by a firm, and its survival rate. A semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model was used to examine the survival pattern. The results demonstrated that firms diversifying at an early stage in their lives show a higher survival rate; however, this effect fades over time.^

Household Preferences for Financing Hurricane Risk Mitigation: A Survey Based Empirical Analysis

After a series of major storms over the last 20 years, the state of financing for U.S. natural disaster insurance has undergone substantial disruptions causing many federal and state backed programs against residential property damage to become severally underfunded. In order to regain actuarial soundness, policy makers have proposed a shift to a system that reflects risk-based pricing for property insurance. We examine survey responses from 1394 single-family homeowners in the state of Florida for support of several natural disaster mitigation policy reforms. Utilizing a partial proportional odds model we test for effects of location, risk perception, socio-economic and housing characteristics on support for policy reforms. Our findings suggest residents across the state, not just risk-prone homeowners, support the current subsidized model. We also examine several other policy questions from the survey to verify our initial results. Finally, the implications of our findings are discussed to provide inputs to policymakers.