921 resultados para Project 2001-002-B : Life Cycle Modelling and Design Knowledge Development in Virtual Environments


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This article develops a life-cycle general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents who make choices of nondurables consumption, investment in homeowned housing and labour supply. Agents retire from an specific age and receive Social Security benefits which are dependant on average past earnings. The model is calibrated, numerically solved and is able to match stylized U.S. aggregate statistics and to generate average life-cycle profiles of its decision variables consistent with data and literature. We also conduct an exercise of complete elimination of the Social Security system and compare its results with the benchmark economy. The results enable us to emphasize the importance of endogenous labour supply and benefits for agents' consumption-smoothing behaviour.

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Life cycle general equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents have a very hard time reproducing the American wealth distribution. A common assumption made in this literature is that all young adults enter the economy with no initial assets. In this article, we relax this assumption – not supported by the data - and evaluate the ability of an otherwise standard life cycle model to account for the U.S. wealth inequality. The new feature of the model is that agents enter the economy with assets drawn from an initial distribution of assets, which is estimated using a non-parametric method applied to data from the Survey of Consumer Finances. We found that heterogeneity with respect to initial wealth is key for this class of models to replicate the data. According to our results, American inequality can be explained almost entirely by the fact that some individuals are lucky enough to be born into wealth, while others are born with few or no assets.

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Life cycle and behaviour of Cunaxatricha tarsospinosa Castro & Den Heyer from rubber trees in Brazil were studied, with Tenuipalpus heveae Baker offered as prey. The study was conducted at 25.4 +/- A 0.2A degrees C, 83 +/- A 5% RH and 12:12 h L:D photophase. The egg stage was the longest immature stage, lasting 17.1 +/- A 1.3 days (mean +/- A SE); total juvenile development was completed in 33.2 +/- A 2.8 days. Lifetime fecundity was 12.0 +/- A 2.2 eggs. Intrinsic rate of population increase was low, suggesting that T. heveae may not be a good prey for the predator. All specimens of C. tarsospinosa collected in the field for this study were females, no males were found. Concurrently, only females were obtained in the laboratory. This seems to be the first report of thelytokous parthenogenesis for cunaxids. Similar to earlier reports for some Cunaxinae and Coleoscirinae, prey were captured when predators were actively searching for them.

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Parasite virulence genes are usually associated with telomeres. The clustering of the telomeres, together with their particular spatial distribution in the nucleus of human parasites such as Plasmodium falciparum and Trypanosoma brucei, has been suggested to play a role in facilitating ectopic recombination and in the emergence of new antigenic variants. Leishmania parasites, as well as other trypanosomes, have unusual gene expression characteristics, such as polycistronic and constitutive transcription of protein-coding genes. Leishmania subtelomeric regions are even more unique because unlike these regions in other trypanosomes they are devoid of virulence genes. Given these peculiarities of Leishmania, we sought to investigate how telomeres are organized in the nucleus of Leishmania major parasites at both the human and insect stages of their life cycle. We developed a new automated and precise method for identifying telomere position in the three-dimensional space of the nucleus, and we found that the telomeres are organized in clusters present in similar numbers in both the human and insect stages. While the number of clusters remained the same, their distribution differed between the two stages. The telomeric clusters were found more concentrated near the center of the nucleus in the human stage than in the insect stage suggesting reorganization during the parasite's differentiation process between the two hosts. These data provide the first 3D analysis of Leishmania telomere organization. The possible biological implications of these findings are discussed.

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The equilibrium dynamics of native and introduced blowflies is modelled using a density-dependent model of population growth that takes into account important features of the life-history in these flies. A theoretical analysis indicates that the product of maximum fecundity and survival is the primary determinant of the dynamics. Cochliomyia macellaria, a blowfly native to the Americas and the introduced Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, differ in their dynamics in that the first species shows a damping oscillatory behavior leading to a one-point equilibrium, whereas in the last two species population numbers show a two-point limit cycle. Simulations showed that variation in fecundity has a marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations and aperiodic behavior. Variation in survival has much less influence on the dynamics.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Social wasps from temperate zones have clear annual colony cycles, and the young queens hibernate during winter. In the subtropics, the only previously reported evidence for the existence of hibernation is the facultative winter aggregations of females during harsh climate conditions. As in temperate-zone species analyzed so far, we show in this study that in the paper wasp, Polistes versicolor, a subtropical species, body size increases as an unfavorable season approaches. Our morphological studies indicate that larger females come from winter aggregations-that is, they are new queens. Multivariate analyses indicate that size is the only variable analyzed that shows a relationship to the differences. Given the absence of a harsh climate, we suggest that the occurrence of winter aggregations in tropical P. versicolor functions to allow some females to wait for better environmental conditions to start a new nest, rather than all being obliged to start a new nest as soon as they emerge.

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Environmental factors strongly affect mangrove crabs, and some factors modulate population structure and habitat partitioning during the crabs' life cycle. However, the effect of these environmental factors on habitat selection by mangrove crabs is still unknown. We evaluated habitat selection by the mangrove crab Ucides cordatus in mangrove forests with different degrees of predominance of Rhizophora mangle, Laguncularia racemosa or Avicennia schaueriana, two tidal flooding levels (less- and more-flooded), and two biological periods (breeding and non-breeding seasons). Sampling was conducted in four mangrove forests with different influences of these biotic and abiotic parameters. We used the data for sex ratio to explain environmental partitioning by this species. Females predominated in R. mangle mangroves, independently of the biological period (breeding or non-breeding seasons), and males predominated only in the less-flooded L. racemosa mangroves. The flooding level affected the sex ratio of U. cordatus, with a predominance of males in less-flooded mangroves, independently of the biological period; and a gender balance in the more-flooded mangroves only during the breeding season. Outside the breeding season, the largest specimens were recorded in the R. mangle mangroves, but in the breeding season, the largest crabs were recorded in the L. racemosa mangroves with a higher level of flooding. These results suggest that tree-species composition and tidal flooding level can have a significant effect on the habitat partitioning of sexes and sizes of the mangrove crab U. cordatus both during and outside the breeding season. © 2012 Springer-Verlag and AWI.

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This paper presents a research on the environmental impacts of particleboards produced from wastes, based on a comparative Life Cycle Assessment study. The particleboards were manufactured in laboratorial scale from the following residues: sugarcane bagasse (Saccharum spp.) and pine wood shavings (Pinus elliottii). The study was developed following the methodological guidelines of ISO 14040. The functional unit adopted was the m2 of the particleboards produced and the impacts were evaluated by the Environmental Development of Industrial Products method. The results indicated that pine particleboard present the highest environmental impact potential. Our findings suggested that the factors that mostly aggravated the environmental impacts were: the distance between the raw materials and the production site, and formaldehyde emissions (FE). The first is related to the combustion of fossil fuel during the acquisition of raw material, which achieved the values of 2185.94 g/m2 for consumption of non-renewable resources for pine particleboard and 893.53 g/m2 for bagasse particleboard. The second is related to the use of urea-formaldehyde resin, responsible for the FE into the air during production. The FE is accountable for the contamination of approximately 7,800,000.00 m3 of air per m2 of particleboard produced, and was the factor with the greatest impact in human toxicity potential. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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In the 1980s Butler adapted the life cycle product model to the tourism industry and created the “Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) model”. The model recognizes six stages in the tourism product life cycle: exploration, investment, development, consolidation, stagnation and followed, after stagnation, by decline or revitalization of the product. These six stages can in turn be regrouped into four main stages. The Butler model has been applied to more than 30 country cases with a wide degree of success. De Albuquerque and Mc Elroy (1992) applied the TALC model to 23 small Caribbean island States in the 1990s. Following De Albuquerque and Mc Elroy, the TALC is applied to the 32 member countries of the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO) (except for Cancun and Cozumel) to locate their positions along their tourism life-cycle in 2007. This is done using the following indicators: the evolution of the level, market share and growth rate of stay-over arrivals; the growth rate and market share of visitor expenditures per arrival and the tourism styles of the destinations, differentiating between ongoing mass tourism and niche marketing strategies and among upscale, mid-scale and low-scale destinations. Countries have pursued three broad classes of strategies over the last 15 years in order to move upward in their tourism life cycle and enhance their tourism competitiveness. There is first a strategy that continues to rely on mass-tourism to build on the comparative advantages of “sun, sand and sea”, scale economies, all-inclusive packages and large amounts of investment to move along in Stage 2 or Stage 3 (Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico). There is a second strategy pursued mainly by very small islands that relies on developing specific niche markets to maintain tourism competitiveness through upgrading (Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, British Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos), allowing them to move from Stage 2 to Stage 3 or Stage 3 to a rejuvenation stage. There is a third strategy that uses a mix of mass-tourism, niche marketing and quality upgrading either to emerge onto the intermediate stage (Trinidad and Tobago); avoid decline (Aruba, The Bahamas) or rejuvenate (Barbados, Jamaica and the United States Virgin Islands). There have been many success stories in Caribbean tourism competitiveness and further research should aim at empirically testing the determinants of tourism competitiveness for the region as a whole.