975 resultados para Predictive-value


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Type-1 (T1R) and Type-2 (T2R) leprosy reactions (LR), which affect up to 50% of leprosy patients, are aggressive inflammatory episodes of sudden onset and highly variable incidence across populations. LR are often diagnosed concurrently with leprosy, but more frequently occur several months after treatment onset. It is not uncommon for leprosy patients to develop recurring reactional episodes; however, they rarely undergo both types of LR. Today, LR are the main cause of permanent disabilities associated with leprosy and represent a major challenge in the clinical management of leprosy patients. Although progress has been made in understanding the immunopathology of LR, the factors that cause a leprosy patient to suffer from LR are largely unknown. Given the impact that ethnic background has on the risk of developing LR, host genetic factors have long been suspected of contributing to LR. Indeed, polymorphisms in seven genes [Toll-like receptors (TLR)1, TLR2, nucleotide-binding oligomerisation domain containing 2, vitamin D receptor, natural resistance-associated macrophage protein 1, C4B and interleukin-6] have been found to be associated with one or more LR outcomes. The identification of host genetic markers with predictive value for LR would have a major impact on nerve damage control in leprosy. In this review, we present the recent advances achieved through genetic studies of LR.

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Status epilepticus (SE) is associated with significant mortality and morbidity. A reliable prognosis may help better manage medical resources and treatment strategies. We examined the role of preexisting comorbidities on the outcome of patients with SE, an aspect that has received little attention to date. We prospectively studied incident SE episodes in 280 adults occurring over 55 months in our tertiary care hospital, excluding patients with postanoxic encephalopathy. Different models predicting mortality and return to clinical baseline at hospital discharge were compared, which included demographics, SE etiology, a validated clinical Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS), and comorbidities (assessed with the Charlson Comorbidity Index) as independent variables. The overall short-term mortality was 14%, and only half of patients returned to their clinical baseline. On bivariate analyses, age, STESS, potentially fatal etiologies, and number of preexisting comorbidities were all significant predictors of both mortality and return to clinical baseline. As compared with the simplest predictive model (including demographics and deadly etiology), adding SE severity and comorbidities resulted in an improved predictive performance (C statistics 0.84 vs. 0.77 for mortality, and 0.86 vs. 0.82. for return to clinical baseline); comorbidities, however, were not independently related to outcome. Considering comorbidities and clinical presentation, in addition to age and etiology, slightly improves the prediction of SE outcome with respect to both survival and functional status. This analysis also emphasizes the robust predictive role of etiology and age.

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Novel biomarkers are required to improve prognostic predictions obtained with lung cancer staging systems. This study of 62 surgically-treated Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) patients had two objectives: i) to compare the predictive value of T-stage classifications between the 6(th) and 7(th) editions of the Tumor, Node, and Metastasis staging system (TNM); and ii) to examine the association of Pkp1 and/or Krt15 gene expression with survival and outcomes. Multivariate and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were performed, examining the relationship of survival with T-stage, recurrence, and TNM-stage (by each TNM edition) and with the single/combined expression of Pkp1 and/or Krt15 genes. Five-year survival rates only significantly differed as a function of T-stage in patients without recurrence when estimated using the 6(th) edition of the TNM classification and only in patients in pathologic TNM-stage IA using the 7(th). Overall survival for patients with elevated expression of both genes was 13.5 months in those with adenocarcinoma and 34.6 months in those with squamous cell carcinoma. Overall survival was 30.4 months in patients with Pkp1 gene upregulation and 30.9 months in those with Krt15 gene upregulation. In conclusion, survival estimations as a function of T-staging differed between the 6(th) and 7(th) editions of TNM. Overall survival differed according to the expression of Pkp1 and/or Krt15 genes, although this relationship did not reach statistical significance.

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We tested sera from 286 agricultural workers and 322 rodents in the department of Córdoba, northeastern Colombia, for antibodies against two hantaviruses. The sera were analysed by indirect ELISA using the lysate of Vero E6 cells infected with Maciel virus (MACV) or the N protein of Araraquara virus (ARAV) as antigens for the detection of antibodies against hantaviruses. Twenty-four human sera were IgG positive using one or both antigens. We detected anti-MACV IgG antibodies in 10 sera (3.5%) and anti-ARAV antibodies in 21 sera (7.34%). Of the 10 samples that were positive for MACV, seven (70%) were cross-reactive with ARAV; seven of the 21 ARAV-positive samples were cross-reactive with MACV. Using an ARAV IgM ELISA, two of the 24 human sera (8.4%) were positive. We captured 322 rodents, including 210 Cricetidae (181 Zygodontomys brevicauda, 28 Oligoryzomys fulvescens and 1 Oecomys trinitatis), six Heteromys anomalus (Heteromyidae), one Proechimys sp. (Echimyidae) and 105 Muridae (34 Rattus rattus and 71 Mus musculus). All rodent sera were negative for both antigens. The 8.4% detection rate of hantavirus antibodies in humans is much higher than previously found in serosurveys in North America, suggesting that rural agricultural workers in northeastern Colombia are frequently exposed to hantaviruses. Our results also indicate that tests conducted with South American hantavirus antigens could have predictive value and could represent a useful alternative for the diagnosis of hantavirus infection in Colombia.

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Rabies is a neurotropic disease that is often lethal. The early diagnosis of rabies infection is important and requires methods that allow for the isolation of the virus from animals and humans. The present study compared a modified shell vial (MSV) procedure using 24-well tissue culture plates with the mouse inoculation test (MIT), which is considered the gold standard for rabies virus isolation. Thirty brain samples (25 positive and 5 negative by the fluorescent antibody test) obtained from different animal species at the National Institute of Hygiene Rafael Rangel in Caracas, Venezuela, were studied by the MIT and MSV assays. Nine samples (36%) were positive at 24 h, 10 (40%) were positive at 48 h and six (24%) were positive at 72 h by the MSV assay. With the MIT assay, 76% were positive at six days post inoculation and 12% were positive at 12 and 18 days post inoculation. One sample that was negative according to the MSV assay was positive with MIT on the 12th day. The MSV procedure exhibited a sensitivity of 96.2%, a specificity of 100%, a positive predictive value of 100% and a negative predictive value 80%. This procedure allowed for rapid rabies virus detection. MIT can be employed as an alternative method in laboratories without tissue culture facilities.

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OsteoLaus is a cohort of 1400 women 50 to 80 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland. Clinical risk factors for osteoporosis, bone ultrasound of the heel, lumbar spine and hip bone mineral density (BMD), assessment of vertebral fracture by DXA, and microarchitecture evaluation by TBS (Trabecular Bone Score) will be recorded. TBS is a new parameter obtained after a re-analysis of a DXA exam. TBS is correlated with parameters of microarchitecture. His reproducibility is good. TBS give an added diagnostic value to BMD, and predict osteoporotic fracture (partially) independently to BMD. The position of TBS in clinical routine in complement to BMD and clinical risk factors will be evaluated in the OsteoLaus cohort.

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Synthetic combinatorial peptide libraries in positional scanning format (PS-SCL) have recently emerged as a useful tool for the analysis of T cell recognition. This includes identification of potentially cross-reactive sequences of self or pathogen origin that could be relevant for the understanding of TCR repertoire selection and maintenance, as well as of the cross-reactive potential of Ag-specific immune responses. In this study, we have analyzed the recognition of sequences retrieved by using a biometric analysis of the data generated by screening a PS-SCL with a tumor-reactive CTL clone specific for an immunodominant peptide from the melanocyte differentiation and tumor-associated Ag Melan-A. We found that 39% of the retrieved peptides were recognized by the CTL clone used for PS-SCL screening. The proportion of peptides recognized was higher among those with both high predicted affinity for the HLA-A2 molecule and high predicted stimulatory score. Interestingly, up to 94% of the retrieved peptides were cross-recognized by other Melan-A-specific CTL. Cross-recognition was at least partially focused, as some peptides were cross-recognized by the majority of CTL. Importantly, stimulation of PBMC from melanoma patients with the most frequently recognized peptides elicited the expansion of heterogeneous CD8(+) T cell populations, one fraction of which cross-recognized Melan-A. Together, these results underline the high predictive value of PS-SCL for the identification of sequences cross-recognized by Ag-specific T cells.

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The aim of the present study was to identify specific markers that mirror liver fibrosis progression as an alternative to biopsy when biopsy is contraindicated, especially in children. After liver biopsies were performed, serum samples from 30 hepatitis C virus (HCV) paediatric patients (8-14 years) were analysed and compared with samples from 30 healthy subjects. All subjects were tested for the presence of serum anti-HCV antibodies. Direct biomarkers for liver fibrosis, including transforming growth factor-β1, tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase-1 (TIMP-1), hyaluronic acid (HA), procollagen type III amino-terminal peptide (PIIINP) and osteopontin (OPN), were measured. The indirect biomarkers aspartate and alanine aminotransferases, albumin and bilirubin were also tested. The results revealed a significant increase in the serum marker levels in HCV-infected children compared with the healthy group, whereas albumin levels exhibited a significant decrease. Significantly higher levels of PIIINP, TIMP-1, OPN and HA were detected in HCV-infected children with moderate to severe fibrosis compared with children with mild fibrosis (p < 0.05). The diagnostic accuracy of these direct biomarkers, represented by sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value, emphasises the utility of PIIINP, TIMP-1, OPN and HA as indicators of liver fibrosis among HCV-infected children.

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Early detection of drug resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates allows for earlier and more effective treatment of patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the performance of the malachite green decolourisation assay (MGDA) in detecting isoniazid (INH) and rifampicin (RIF) resistance in M. tuberculosis clinical isolates. Fifty M. tuberculosis isolates, including 19 multidrug-resistant, eight INH-resistant and 23 INH and RIF-susceptible samples, were tested. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and agreement of the assay for INH were 92.5%, 91.3%, 92.5%, 91.3% and 92%, respectively. Similarly, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV and agreement of the assay for RIF were 94.7%, 100%, 100%, 96.8% and 98%, respectively. There was a major discrepancy in the tests of two isolates, as they were sensitive to INH by the MGDA test, but resistant by the reference method. There was a minor discrepancy in the tests of two additional isolates, as they were sensitive to INH by the reference method, but resistant by the MGDA test. The drug susceptibility test results were obtained within eight-nine days. In conclusion, the MGDA test is a reliable and accurate method for the rapid detection of INH and RIF resistance compared with the reference method and the MGDA test additionally requires less time to obtain results.

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Background: The objective was to investigate the association between BMI and single nucleotide polymorphisms previously identified of obesity-related genes in two Spanish populations. Forty SNPs in 23 obesity-related genes were evaluated in a rural population characterized by a high prevalence of obesity (869 subjects, mean age 46 yr, 62% women, 36% obese) and in an urban population (1425 subjects, mean age 54 yr, 50% women, 19% obese). Genotyping was assessed by using SNPlex and PLINK for the association analysis. Results: Polymorphisms of the FTO were significantly associated with BMI, in the rural population (beta 0.87, p-value <0.001). None of the other SNPs showed significant association after Bonferroni correction in the two populations or in the pooled analysis. A weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) was constructed using the risk alleles of the Tag-SNPs with a positive Beta parameter in both populations. From the first to the fifth quintile of the score, the BMI increased 0.45 kg/m2 in Hortega and 2.0 kg/m2 in Pizarra. Overall, the obesity predictive value was low (less than 1%). Conclusion: The risk associated with polymorphisms is low and the overall effect on BMI or obesity prediction is minimal. A weighted genetic risk score based on genes mainly acting through central nervous system mechanisms was associated with BMI but it yields minimal clinical prediction for the obesity risk in the general population.

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The aim of this study was to investigate the performance of a new and accurate method for the detection of isoniazid (INH) and rifampicin (RIF) resistance among Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates using a crystal violet decolourisation assay (CVDA). Fifty-five M. tuberculosis isolates obtained from culture stocks stored at -80ºC were tested. After bacterial inoculation, the samples were incubated at 37ºC for seven days and 100 µL of CV (25 mg/L stock solution) was then added to the control and sample tubes. The tubes were incubated for an additional 24-48 h. CV (blue/purple) was decolourised in the presence of bacterial growth; thus, if CV lost its colour in a sample containing a drug, the tested isolate was reported as resistant. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and agreement for INH were 92.5%, 96.4%, 96.1%, 93.1% and 94.5%, respectively, and 88.8%, 100%, 100%, 94.8% and 96.3%, respectively, for RIF. The results were obtained within eight-nine days. This study shows that CVDA is an effective method to detect M. tuberculosis resistance to INH and RIF in developing countries. This method is rapid, simple and inexpensive. Nonetheless, further studies are necessary before routine laboratory implementation.

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Auditory evoked potentials are informative of intact cortical functions of comatose patients. The integrity of auditory functions evaluated using mismatch negativity paradigms has been associated with their chances of survival. However, because auditory discrimination is assessed at various delays after coma onset, it is still unclear whether this impairment depends on the time of the recording. We hypothesized that impairment in auditory discrimination capabilities is indicative of coma progression, rather than of the comatose state itself and that rudimentary auditory discrimination remains intact during acute stages of coma. We studied 30 post-anoxic comatose patients resuscitated from cardiac arrest and five healthy, age-matched controls. Using a mismatch negativity paradigm, we performed two electroencephalography recordings with a standard 19-channel clinical montage: the first within 24 h after coma onset and under mild therapeutic hypothermia, and the second after 1 day and under normothermic conditions. We analysed electroencephalography responses based on a multivariate decoding algorithm that automatically quantifies neural discrimination at the single patient level. Results showed high average decoding accuracy in discriminating sounds both for control subjects and comatose patients. Importantly, accurate decoding was largely independent of patients' chance of survival. However, the progression of auditory discrimination between the first and second recordings was informative of a patient's chance of survival. A deterioration of auditory discrimination was observed in all non-survivors (equivalent to 100% positive predictive value for survivors). We show, for the first time, evidence of intact auditory processing even in comatose patients who do not survive and that progression of sound discrimination over time is informative of a patient's chance of survival. Tracking auditory discrimination in comatose patients could provide new insight to the chance of awakening in a quantitative and automatic fashion during early stages of coma.

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Recurrent breast cancer occurring after the initial treatment is associated with poor outcome. A bimodal relapse pattern after surgery for primary tumor has been described with peaks of early and late recurrence occurring at about 2 and 5 years, respectively. Although several clinical and pathological features have been used to discriminate between low- and high-risk patients, the identification of molecular biomarkers with prognostic value remains an unmet need in the current management of breast cancer. Using microarray-based technology, we have performed a microRNA expression analysis in 71 primary breast tumors from patients that either remained disease-free at 5 years post-surgery (group A) or developed early (group B) or late (group C) recurrence. Unsupervised hierarchical clustering of microRNA expression data segregated tumors in two groups, mainly corresponding to patients with early recurrence and those with no recurrence. Microarray data analysis and RT-qPCR validation led to the identification of a set of 5 microRNAs (the 5-miRNA signature) differentially expressed between these two groups: miR-149, miR-10a, miR-20b, miR-30a-3p and miR-342-5p. All five microRNAs were down-regulated in tumors from patients with early recurrence. We show here that the 5-miRNA signature defines a high-risk group of patients with shorter relapse-free survival and has predictive value to discriminate non-relapsing versus early-relapsing patients (AUC = 0.993, p-value<0.05). Network analysis based on miRNA-target interactions curated by public databases suggests that down-regulation of the 5-miRNA signature in the subset of early-relapsing tumors would result in an overall increased proliferative and angiogenic capacity. In summary, we have identified a set of recurrence-related microRNAs with potential prognostic value to identify patients who will likely develop metastasis early after primary breast surgery.

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OBJECTIVE: : Identification of children with elevated blood pressure (BP) is difficult because of the multiple sex, age, and height-specific thresholds to define elevated BP. We propose a simple set of absolute height-specific BP thresholds and evaluate their performance to identify children with elevated BP in two different populations. METHODS: : Using the 95th sex, age, and relative-height BP US thresholds to define elevated BP in children (standard criteria), we derived a set of (non sex- and non age-specific) absolute height-specific BP thresholds for 11 height categories by 10 cm increments. Using data from large school-based surveys conducted in Switzerland (N = 5207; 2621 boys, 2586 girls; age range: 10.1-14.9 years) and in the Seychelles (N = 25 759; 13 048 boys, 12 711 girls; age range: 4.4-18.8 years), we evaluated the performance of these height-specific thresholds to identify children with elevated BP. We also derived sex-specific absolute height-specific BP thresholds and compared their performance. RESULTS: : In the Swiss and the Seychelles surveys, the prevalence of elevated BP (standard criteria) was 11.4 and 9.1%, respectively. The height-specific thresholds to identify elevated BP had a sensitivity of 80 and 84%, a specificity of 99 and 99%, a positive predictive value of 92 and 91%, and a negative predictive value of 97 and 98%, respectively. Performance of sex-specific absolute height-specific BP thresholds was similar. CONCLUSION: : A simple table of height-specific BP thresholds allowed identifying children with elevated BP with high sensitivity and excellent specificity.

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Introduct ion The Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) indicates that a lactate (LT) concentration greater than 4ımmol/l indicates early resuscitation bundles. However, several recent studies have suggested that LT values lower than 4ımmol/l may be a prognostic marker of adverse outcome. The aim of this study was to identify clinical and analytical prognostic parameters in severe sepsis (SS) or septic shock (ShS) according to quartiles of blood LT concentration. Methods A cohort study was designed in a polyvalent ICU. We studied demographic, clinical and analytical parameters in 148 critically ill adults, within 24ıhours from SS or ShS onset according to SSC criteria. We tested for diı erences in baseline characteristics by lactate interval using a KruskalıWallis test for continuous data or a chi-square test for categorical data and reported the median and interquartile ranges; SPSS version 15.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). Results We analyzed 148 consecutive episodes of SS (16%) or ShS (84%). The median age was 64 (interquartile range, 48.7 to 71)ıyears; male: 60%. The main sources of infection were respiratory tract 38% and intra-abdomen 45%; 70.7% had medical pathology. Mortality at 28ıdays was 22.7%. Quartiles of blood LT concentration were quartile 1 (Q1): 1.87ımmol/l or less, quartile 2 (Q2): 1.88 to 2.69ımmol/l, quartile 3 (Q3): 2.7 to 4.06ımmol/l, and quartile 4 (Q4): 4.07ımmol/l or greater (Tableı1). The median LT concentrations of each quartile were 1.43 (Q1), 2.2 (Q2), 3.34 (Q3), and 5.1 (Q4) mmol/l (Pı<0.001). The diı erences between these quartiles were that the patients in Q1 had signiı cantly lower APACHE II scores (Pı=ı0.04), SOFA score (Pı=ı0.024), number of organ failures (NOF) (Pı<0.001) and ICU mortality (Pı=ı0.028), compared with patients in Q2, Q3 and Q4. Patients in Q1 had signiı cantly higher cholesterol (Pı=ı0.06) and lower procalcitonin (Pı=ı0.05) at enrolment. At the extremes, patients in Q1 had decreased 28-day mortality (Pı=ı0.023) and, patients in Q4 had increased 28-day mortality, compared with the other quartiles of patients (Pı=ı0.009). Interestingly, patients in Q2 had signiı cant increased mortality compared with patients in Q1 (Pı=ı0.043), whereas the patients in Q2 had no signiı cant diı erence in 28-day mortality compared with patients in Q3. Conclusion Adverse outcomes and several potential risk factors, including organ failure, are signiı cantly associated with higher quartiles of LT concentrations. It may be useful to revise the cutoı value of lactate according to the SSC (4 mmol/l).