Predicting entry of Swedish wholesale firms into local markets

Applying microeconomic theory, we develop a forecasting model for firm entry into local markets and test this model using data from the Swedish wholesale industry. The empirical analysis is based on directly estimating the profit function of wholesale firms. As in previous entry studies, profits are assumed to depend on firm- and location-specific factors,and the profit equation is estimated using panel data econometric techniques. Using the residuals from the profit equation estimations, we identify local markets in Sweden where firm profits are abnormally high given the level of all independent variables included in the profit function. From microeconomic theory, we then know that these local markets should have higher net entry than other markets, all else being equal, and we investigate this in a second step,also using a panel data econometric model. The results of estimating the net-entry equation indicate that four of five estimated models have more net entry in high-return municipalities, but the estimated parameter is only statistically significant at conventional levels in one of our estimated models.

Optimal V. O2max-to-mass ratio for predicting 15 km performance among elite male cross-country skiers

The aim of this study was 1) to validate the 0.5 body-mass exponent for maximal oxygen uptake (V. O2max) as the optimal predictor of performance in a 15 km classical-technique skiing competition among elite male cross-country skiers and 2) to evaluate the influence of distance covered on the body-mass exponent for V. O2max among elite male skiers. Twenty-four elite male skiers (age: 21.4±3.3 years [mean ± standard deviation]) completed an incremental treadmill roller-skiing test to determine their V. O2max. Performance data were collected from a 15 km classicaltechnique cross-country skiing competition performed on a 5 km course. Power-function modeling (ie, an allometric scaling approach) was used to establish the optimal body-mass exponent for V . O2max to predict the skiing performance. The optimal power-function models were found to be race speed = 8.83⋅(V . O2max m-0.53) 0.66 and lap speed = 5.89⋅(V . O2max m-(0.49+0.018lap)) 0.43e0.010age, which explained 69% and 81% of the variance in skiing speed, respectively. All the variables contributed to the models. Based on the validation results, it may be recommended that V. O2max divided by the square root of body mass (mL⋅min−1 ⋅kg−0.5) should be used when elite male skiers’ performance capability in 15 km classical-technique races is evaluated. Moreover, the body-mass exponent for V . O2max was demonstrated to be influenced by the distance covered, indicating that heavier skiers have a more pronounced positive pacing profile (ie, race speed gradually decreasing throughout the race) compared to that of lighter skiers.

Trust-By-Contract: Modelling, Analysing and Predicting Behaviour in Software Architectures

Architecture description languages (ADLs) are used to specify high-level, compositional views of a software application. ADL research focuses on software composed of prefabricated parts, so-called software components. ADLs usually come equipped with rigorous state-transition style semantics, facilitating verification and analysis of specifications. Consequently, ADLs are well suited to configuring distributed and event-based systems. However, additional expressive power is required for the description of enterprise software architectures – in particular, those built upon newer middleware, such as implementations of Java’s EJB specification, or Microsoft’s COM+/.NET. The enterprise requires distributed software solutions that are scalable, business-oriented and mission-critical. We can make progress toward attaining these qualities at various stages of the software development process. In particular, progress at the architectural level can be leveraged through use of an ADL that incorporates trust and dependability analysis. Also, current industry approaches to enterprise development do not address several important architectural design issues. The TrustME ADL is designed to meet these requirements, through combining approaches to software architecture specification with rigorous design-by-contract ideas. In this paper, we focus on several aspects of TrustME that facilitate specification and analysis of middleware-based architectures for trusted enterprise computing systems.

Modeling and predicting the CBOE market volatility index

This paper performs a thorough statistical examination of the time-series properties of the daily market volatility index (VIX) from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). The motivation lies not only on the widespread consensus that the VIX is a barometer of the overall market sentiment as to what concerns investors' risk appetite, but also on the fact that there are many trading strategies that rely on the VIX index for hedging and speculative purposes. Preliminary analysis suggests that the VIX index displays long-range dependence. This is well in line with the strong empirical evidence in the literature supporting long memory in both options-implied and realized variances. We thus resort to both parametric and semiparametric heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) processes for modeling and forecasting purposes. Our main ndings are as follows. First, we con rm the evidence in the literature that there is a negative relationship between the VIX index and the S&P 500 index return as well as a positive contemporaneous link with the volume of the S&P 500 index. Second, the term spread has a slightly negative long-run impact in the VIX index, when possible multicollinearity and endogeneity are controlled for. Finally, we cannot reject the linearity of the above relationships, neither in sample nor out of sample. As for the latter, we actually show that it is pretty hard to beat the pure HAR process because of the very persistent nature of the VIX index.

Predicting Amazon Deforestation through the deterninants of demand for agricultural land

This paper develops a model of deforestation pressure in the Amazon. It is based on the determinants of demand for agricultural land, i.e. the interactions between population dynamics, urbanization and the growth of local markets, land prices, and government spending and policies. The mo deI is estimated using data from the period 1970 - 1985, and predictions for the period 1985 - 2010 are made under explicit assumptions about the underlying factors of deforestation. The predictions indicate that economic growth in the Amazon is likely to continue at high rates even if the federal government abandons its aggressive development policy. Deforestation will be much smaller if they do, though, since the active development policies tend to promote wasteful use of land.

The price of threat: the role of identity-safe marketplaces in predicting intergroup price sensitivity

In field experiments with subjects living either inside or outside Brazilian slums (n=955), we show that consumers living in slums are less price sensitive, in opposition with recent price sensitivity research. Comparing slum and non-slum dwellers, we found that negatively stereotyped consumers (e.g. slum dwellers) were more likely to pay higher amounts for friendlier customer service when facing social identity threats (SITs) in marketplaces such as banks. The mechanism which makes them less price sensitive is related to the perception of how other people evaluate their social groups, and we argue that they pay more because they are seeking identity-safe commercial relationships. This work, besides extending the literature in SITs, presents a perspective for the exchange between economics and psychology on price sensitivity, showing that consumers living in slums are willing to pay more to avoid possibly social identity threating experiences.

Predicting and breaking sedentary behaviour at work

This thesis aimed at designing and developing a system that can a) infer individuals’ need for a break from sedentary behaviour in the workplace, and b) persuade them to take a break through the use of different techniques from persuasive psychology. We postulated three variables, namely, individuals’ posture, stress levels and involvement in their computer mediated activity. We developed and field-studied a system that could infer these using a web camera and a key presses and mouse clicks log. We found that the system could predict posture from viewing depth and stress from the movement detected. We then created a general formula that predicts individuals’ need for a break using only the posture and stress predictors. Once the first objective was set, we built and field-studied a system that used three ways to communicate a recommendation for a break to a user: implicit, just-in time and ambient feedback. The implicit feedback was operationalized through changes in the users’ computer wallpaper that provided subtle visual cues. The just-in time feedback employed prompting at the bottom right side of the user’s screen. In addition, we implemented an intuitive behind-screen interaction technique where people can snooze a notification using simple gestures. The ambient feedback mechanism employed an origami sculpture sitting on the user’s desk. This prototype was continuously reflecting the user’s posture and performed rhythmic movements when to recommend breaks. A field study demonstrated the overall success of the system, with 69% of the break recommendations received by users were accepted. The study further revealed the strengths and weaknesses of the three persuasive mechanisms.

Predicting the chemical composition of the body and the carcass of 3/4Boer x 1/4Saanen kids using body components

The determination of the chemical composition of body and carcass is important in nutritional and growth regulation studies. The purpose of this study was to develop equations to predict the chemical composition of body and carcass using chemical composition of body components. Twenty 3/4Boer x 1/4Saanen crossbred male kids, weighing from 20 to 35 kg, were used in this study. The empty body chemical composition was measured by grinding all body components and sampling for chemical analyses. The body components used to estimate body and carcass composition were: neck, fore leg, ribs, loin, hind leg, 9-11 th rib section, non-carcass components (head plus feet, organs plus blood, and hide), visceral fat, and kidney fat. The chemical composition of organs plus blood and 9-11 th rib section had the highest precision to estimate percentage of fat, protein, and water in the body (r(2) of 0.94, 0.82, and 0.90, respectively). For carcass composition, the chemical composition of ribs was the best component to predict all carcass chemical components; however, the equations to estimate the percentages of protein and ash showed a low precision (r(2) = 0.48, 0.44, respectively). The 9-11 th rib section was accurate and precise to estimate carcass fat percentage. We concluded the chemical composition of the body of 3/4Boer x 1/4Saanen crossbred male kids was highly correlated with the composition of body parts, specifically organs plus blood and 9-11 th rib section. Further studies should focus on evaluating these body parts for different breeds and genders under different production scenarios. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Niobium Pentachloride Catalyzed Multicomponent Povarov Reaction

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Efficacy of the motile sperm organelle morphology examination (MSOME) in predicting pregnancy after intrauterine insemination

Background: Although the motile sperm organelle morphology examination (MSOME) was developed merely as a selection criterion, its application as a method for classifying sperm morphology may represent an improvement in the evaluation of semen quality. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of normal sperm morphology using MSOME with regard to clinical pregnancy (CP) after intrauterine insemination (IUI).Methods: A total of 156 IUI cycles that were performed in 111 couples were prospectively analysed. Each subject received 75 IU of recombinant FSH every second day from the third day of the cycle. Beginning on the 10th day of the cycle, follicular development was monitored by vaginal ultrasound. When one or two follicles measuring at least 17 mm were observed, recombinant hCG was administered, and IUI was performed 12-14 h and 36-40 h after hCG treatment. Prior to the IUI procedure, sperm samples were analysed by MSOME at 8400x magnification using an inverted microscope that was equipped with DIC/Nomarski differential interference contrast optics. A minimum of 200 motile spermatozoa per semen sample were evaluated, and the percentage of normal spermatozoa in each sample was determined.Results: Pregnancy occurred in 34 IUI cycles (CP rate per cycle: 21.8%, per patient: 30.6%). Based on the MSOME criteria, a significantly higher percentage of normal spermatozoa was found in the group of men in which the IUI cycles resulted in pregnancy (2.6+/-3.1%) compared to the group that did not achieve pregnancy (1.2+/-1.7%; P = 0.019). Logistic regression showed that the percentage of normal cells in the MSOME was a determining factor for the likelihood of clinical pregnancy (OR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.08 to 1.51; P = 0.003). The ROC curve revealed an area under the curve of 0.63 and an optimum cut-off point of 2% of normal sperm morphology. At this cut-off threshold, using the percentage of normal sperm morphology by MSOME to predict pregnancy was 50% sensitive with a 40% positive predictive value and 79% specificity with an 85% negative predictive value. The efficacy of using the percentage of normal sperm morphology by MSOME in predicting pregnancy was 65%.Conclusions: The present findings support the use of high-magnification microscopy both for selecting spermatozoa and as a routine method for analysing semen before performing IUI.

Ultrasonography as a predicting tool for carcass traits of young bulls

O desenvolvimento de técnicas não invasivas e não destrutivas para a avaliação da composição e qualidade de carcaça em animais tem mobilizado consideráveis recursos em pesquisa. A ultra-sonografia aparece neste contexto como uma técnica viável, confiável e de custo aceitável para esta função. No presente trabalho foi avaliada a técnica de ultra-sonografia em tempo real como ferramenta para predição da área de olho-de-lombo (AOL) e espessura da camada de gordura subcutânea (ECG) a partir de imagens tomadas em animais vivos, quando comparadas com as medições na carcaça. Foram utilizados 115 bovinos jovens (30, ½ Angus x Nellore; 30, ½ Canchim x Nellore; 30, ½ Simental x Nellore, e 25 Nellores), com peso inicial médio de 329 kg e de dois tamanhos à maturidade (pequeno e grande), no sistema de produção do novilho superprecoce. As medidas de ultra-sonografia foram realizadas a cada 28 dias totalizando quatro medições até o final do confinamento. A precisão da predição aumentou em função da proximidade da data do abate, sendo máxima na quarta medida (R²= 0,68 para AOL e 0,82 para ECG). Houve efeito de grupo genético e de medida ultra-sonográfica para ECG. O tamanho corporal não teve efeito sobre nenhuma das características estudadas.

Comparative study of 2 software programs for predicting profile changes in Class III patients having double-jaw orthognathic surgery

Introduction: Computer software can be used to predict orthognathic surgery outcomes. The aim of this study was to subjectively compare the soft-tissue surgical simulations of 2 software programs. Methods: Standard profile pictures were taken of 10 patients with a Class III malocclusion and a concave facial profile who were scheduled for double-jaw orthognathic surgery. The patients had horizontal maxillary deficiency or horizontal mandibular excess. Two software programs (Dentofacial Planner Plus [Dentofacial Software, Toronto, Ontario, Canada] and Dolphin Imaging [version 9.0, Dolphin Imaging Software, Canoga Park, Calif]) were used to predict the postsurgical profiles. The predictive images were compared with the actual final photographs. One hundred one orthodontists, oral-maxillofacial surgeons, and general dentists evaluated the images and were asked whether they would use either software program to plan treatment for, or to educate, their patients. Results: Statistical analyses showed differences between the groups when each point was judged. Dolphin Imaging software had better prediction of nasal tip, chin, and submandibular area. Dentofacial Planner Plus software was better in predicting nasolabial angle, and upper and lower lips. The total profile comparison showed no statistical difference between the softwares. Conclusions: The 2 types of software are similar for obtaining 2-dimensional predictive profile images of patients with Class III malocclusion treated with orthognathic surgery. (Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop 2010; 137: 452.e1-452.e5)

Predicting MAOD Using Only a Supramaximal Exhaustive Test

The objective of this study was to propose an alternative method (MAOD(ALT)) to estimate the maximal accumulated oxygen deficit (MAOD) using only one supramaximal exhaustive test. Nine participants performed the following tests: (a) a maximal incremental exercise test, (b) six submaximal constant workload tests, and (c) a supramaximal constant workload test. Traditional MAOD was determined by calculating the difference between predicted O(2) demand and accumulated O(2) uptake during the supramaximal test. MAOD(ALT) was established by summing the fast component of excess post-exercise oxygen consumption and the O(2) equivalent for energy provided by blood lactate accumulation, both of which were measured during the supramaximal test. There was no significant difference between MAOD (2.82 +/- 0.45 L) and MAOD(ALT) (2.77 +/- 0.37 L) (p = 0.60). The correlation between MAOD and MAOD(ALT) was also high (r = 0.78; p = 0.014). These data indicate that the MAOD(ALT) can be used to estimate the MAOD.