Reference values for digital X-ray radiogrammetry parameters in children and adolescents in comparison to estimates in patients with distal radius fractures.

The first objective of this study was to determine normative digital X-ray radiogrammetry (DXR) values, based on original digital images, in a pediatric population (aged 6-18 years). The second aim was to compare these reference data with patients suffering from distal radius fractures, whereas both cohorts originated from the same geographical region and were evaluated using the same technical parameters as well as inclusion and exclusion criteria. DXR-BMD and DXR-MCI of the metacarpal bones II-IV were assessed on standardized digital hand radiographs, without printing or scanning procedures. DXR parameters were estimated separately by gender and among six age groups; values in the fracture group were compared to age- and gender-matched normative data using Student's t tests and Z scores. In the reference cohort (150 boys, 138 girls), gender differences were found in bone mineral density (DXR-BMD), with higher values for girls from 11 to 14 years and for boys from 15 to 18 years (p < 0.05). Girls had higher normative metacarpal index (DXR-MCI) values than boys, with significant differences at 11-14 years (p < 0.05). In the case-control investigation, the fracture group (95 boys, 69 girls) presented lower DXR-BMD at 15-18 years in boys and 13-16 years in girls vs. the reference cohort (p < 0.05); DXR-MCI was lower at 11-18 years in boys and 11-16 years in girls (p < 0.05). Mean Z scores in the fracture group for DXR-BMD were -0.42 (boys) and -0.46 (girls), and for DXR-MCI were -0.51 (boys) and -0.53 (girls). These findings indicate that the fully digital DXR technique can be accurately applied in pediatric populations ≥ 6 years of age. The lower DXR-BMD and DXR-MCI values in the fracture group suggest promising early identification of individuals with increased fracture risk, without the need for additional radiation exposure, enabling the initiation of prevention strategies to possibly reduce the incidence of osteoporosis later in life.

Age, Growth and Population Structure of Jumbo Flying Squid, Dosidicus Gigas, Based on Statolith Microstructure Off the Exclusive Economic Zone of Chilean Waters

The jumbo flying squid, Dosidicus gigas, support an important squid fishery off the Exclusive Economic Zone of Chilean waters. However, we only have limited information about their biology. In this study, age, growth and population structure of D. gigas were studied using statoliths from 333 specimens (386 females and 147 males) randomly sampled in the Chinese squid jigging surveys from 2007 to 2008 off the Exclusive Economic Zone of Chile. Mantle lengths (MLs) of the sample ranged from 206 to 702 mm, and their ages were estimated from 150 to 307 days for females and from 127 to 302 days for males. At least two spawning groups were identified, the main spawning peak tended to occur between August and November (austral spring group), and the secondary peak appeared during March to June (austral autumn group). The ML-age relationship was best modelled by a linear function for the austral spring group and a power function for the austral autumn group, and the body weight (BW)-age relationship was best described by an exponential function for both the groups. Instantaneous relative growth rates and absolute growth rates for ML and BW did not differ significantly between the two groups. The growth rate of D. gigas tended to be high at young stages, and then decreased after the sub-adult stage (>180 days old). This study suggests large spatial and temporal variability in key life history parameters of D. gigas, calling for the collection of more data with fine spatial and temporal scales to further improve our understanding of the fishery biology of D. gigas.

Simulation study of joint transition and Weibull survival model with shared parameters

This study investigates a theoretical model where a longitudinal process, that is a stationary Markov-Chain, and a Weibull survival process share a bivariate random effect. Furthermore, a Quality-of-Life adjusted survival is calculated as the weighted sum of survival time. Theoretical values of population mean adjusted survival of the described model are computed numerically. The parameters of the bivariate random effect do significantly affect theoretical values of population mean. Maximum-Likelihood and Bayesian methods are applied on simulated data to estimate the model parameters. Based on the parameter estimates, predicated population mean adjusted survival can then be calculated numerically and compared with the theoretical values. Bayesian method and Maximum-Likelihood method provide parameter estimations and population mean prediction with comparable accuracy; however Bayesian method suffers from poor convergence due to autocorrelation and inter-variable correlation. ^

LONGITUDINAL GROWTH PARAMETERS AND THEIR ECOLOGICAL DETERMINANTS (SEASONALITY)

The growth patterns of weight from birth through the first twelve months of life among rural Taiwanese infants were investigated with the following objectives: (i) compare each of the parameters of the Count model estimated for infants who were nutritionally at risk with those for a reference population from the United States; and (ii) within the Taiwanese infants, account for the variance in the growth patterns in the first and second six months of life on the basis of selected ecological factors.^ The significance between group differences were observed in the patterns of the weight growth in both linear growth and in the timing and the direction of velocity changes. A significant decline in growth velocity was observed among Taiwanese infants at about the fourth month of life. The decline is in keeping with a recent proposal made by J. C. Waterlow regarding the timing of change in growth velocity among nutritionally at risk populations in developing countries. The growth course of a nutritionally at risk infant during the first three months is apparently protected by the nurturance of the mother and innate biological properties of the infant.^ A highly significant portion of the growth variance in the second six months of life was accounted for by exogenous factors and biological factors related to the infant. Conversely, none of the growth variance in the first six months of life was accounted for by predictor variables. The most potent determinant of growth in the second six months of life was seasonality which represents a multiple environmental event.^ The model parameters estimated from the Count model represent different aspect of physical growth; yet the correlation coefficients between parameters b and c are high (r > .80). Clearly, the biological interpretation of the model parameters requires analysis of the whole function in the specific context of a given age period. ^

Feeding parameters of copepods from upwelling areas

Feeding patterns of mass herbivorous copepods in upwelling areas are investigated. Daily rations and aspects of their formation are examined in Calanoides carinatus (Benguela upwelling), Calanus pacificus (off the California coast), and Calanus australis (Peru upwelling). Rations were calculated based on gut plant pigment contents obtained at daily stations using laser spectrofluorometry, experimental data on the rate of gut evacuation and data on the carbon/chlorophyll ratio in phytoplankton and particulate matter at the respective stations. When phytoplankton was abundant, diel feeding rhythms were not pronounced and gut pigment level was high during the entire 24-h period. When phytoplankton biomass was low, distinct feeding rhythms were pronounced with a nocturnal maximum. During active upwelling intensive feeding on phytoplankton supports energy (respiration) and plastic (growth, development, reproduction, accumulation of reserves) metabolism of copepods. When upwelling was inactive, the surface part of the population feeds less actively and is able only partially to cover its energy expenditures. The actively growing and reproducing populations of C. pacificus and C. carinatus may consume close to 20% of primary production, whereas the inactive population of C. australis consumed only 0.2% of primary production when upwelling weakened.

Pigments, phytoplankton and its production parameters in the Obskaya Guba and adjacent Kara Sea in the latest September 2007

Material was collected in the Ob River estuary and the adjacent shallow Kara Sea shelf between 71°14.0'N and 75°33.0'N at the end of September 2007. Latitudinal zonation in phytoplankton distribution was demonstrated; this zonation was determined by changes in salinity and concentration of nutrients. Characteristic of the phytocenosis in the southern desalinated zone composed of freshwater diatom and green algae species were high population density (1500000 cells/l), biomass (210 ?g C/l), chlorophyll concentration (4.5 ?g/l), and uniform distribution in the water column. High primary production (~40 ?g C/l/day) was recorded in the upper 1.5 m layer. The estuarine frontal zone located to the north had a halocline at depth 3-5 m. Freshwater species with low abundance (250000 cells/l), biomass (24 ?g C/l), and chlorophyll concentration (1.5 ?g/l) dominated above the halocline. Marine diatom algae, dinoflagellates, and autotrophic flagellates formed a considerable part of the phytocenosis below the halocline; community characteristics were two-fold lower as compared with the upper layer. Maximal values of primary production (~10 ?g C/l/day) were recorded in the upper 1.5 m layer. The phytocenosis in the seaward zone was formed by marine alga species and was considerably poorer as compared with the frontal zone. Assimilation rates of carbon per chlorophyll a at the end of the vegetation season within the studied area were low, average 0.4-1.0 ?g C/?g Chl/hour in the upper layer and 0.03-0.1 ?g C/?g Chl/hour below the pycnocline.

Diminished UV-absorbing nets reduce the Spreads and population density of Macrosiphum euphorbiae in lettuce.

UV-absorbing covers reduce the incidence of injurious insect pests and viruses in protected crops. In the present study, the effect of a UV-absorbing net (Bionet) on the spatio-temporal dynamics of the potato aphid on lettuce plants was evaluated. A field experiment was conducted during three seasons in two identical tunnels divided in four plots. A set of lettuce plants were artificially infested with Macrosiphum euphorbiae adults and the population was estimated by counting aphids on every plant over 7 to 9 weeks. Insect population grew exponentially but a significantly lower aphid density was present on plants grown under the UV-absorbing cover compared to a standard 50 mesh net. Similarly, in laboratory conditions, life table parameters were significantly reduced under the Bionet. Moreover, SADIE analysis showed that the spatial distribution of aphids was effectively limited under the UV-absorbing nets. Our results indicate that UV-absorbing nets should be considered as an important component of lettuce indoor cropping systems preventing pesticide applications and reducing the risk of spread of aphid-borne virus diseases.

Asymptotic stability of a mathematical model of cell population

We consider a simplified system of a growing colony of cells described as a free boundary problem. The system consists of two hyperbolic equations of first order coupled to an ODE to describe the behavior of the boundary. The system for cell populations includes non-local terms of integral type in the coefficients. By introducing a comparison with solutions of an ODE's system, we show that there exists a unique homogeneous steady state which is globally asymptotically stable for a range of parameters under the assumption of radially symmetric initial data.

Maximum likelihood estimation of a migration matrix and effective population sizes in n subpopulations by using a coalescent approach

A maximum likelihood estimator based on the coalescent for unequal migration rates and different subpopulation sizes is developed. The method uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to investigate possible genealogies with branch lengths and with migration events. Properties of the new method are shown by using simulated data from a four-population n-island model and a source–sink population model. Our estimation method as coded in migrate is tested against genetree; both programs deliver a very similar likelihood surface. The algorithm converges to the estimates fairly quickly, even when the Markov chain is started from unfavorable parameters. The method was used to estimate gene flow in the Nile valley by using mtDNA data from three human populations.

Population synthesis of isolated neutron stars with magneto-rotational evolution

We revisit the population synthesis of isolated radio-pulsars incorporating recent advances on the evolution of the magnetic field and the angle between the magnetic and rotational axes from new simulations of the magneto-thermal evolution and magnetosphere models, respectively. An interesting novelty in our approach is that we do not assume the existence of a death line. We discuss regions in parameter space that are more consistent with the observational data. In particular, we find that any broad distribution of birth spin periods with P0 ≲ 0.5 s can fit the data, and that if the alignment angle is allowed to vary consistently with the torque model, realistic magnetospheric models are favoured compared to models with classical magneto-dipolar radiation losses. Assuming that the initial magnetic field is given by a lognormal distribution, our optimal model has mean strength 〈log B0[G]〉 ≈ 13.0–13.2 with width σ(log B0) = 0.6–0.7. However, there are strong correlations between parameters. This degeneracy in the parameter space can be broken by an independent estimate of the pulsar birth rate or by future studies correlating this information with the population in other observational bands (X-rays and γ-rays).

Indicators of obesity and the educational attainment of the Czech female population

The aim of this paper was to evaluate the relationship between selected indicators of obesity and the highest completed level of education in the adult female population of the Czech republic. As basic indicators of obesity, these following parameters were selected and measured via the bioimpedance method on the device InBody 720: BMI, WHR (waist-to-hip ratio), % body fat, % skeletal muscle mass, fitness score. The educational attainment of the tested women was inquired by a questionnaire. Based on the responses, we subsequently divided our sample into four categories according to the level of education: primary education, secondary education-apprenticeship, secondary education-graduate diploma, and university. The research was realized within the project CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0044. The measurements on the device InBody 720 and the accompanying survey were conducted between 2011-2013 in different regions of the Czech Republic. The sample consisted of 754 women divided into 3 age groups (18-39, 40-59, 60+ years). Based on the results (p<0.05), we can say that average values of the indicators obesity (BMI: 22.76, 24.88, 26.49 kg/m2, WHR: 0.85, 0.88, 0.90 and % body fat: 25.76, 30.23, 34.62%) increase with the increasing age of examined women. The average values of the fitness score (75.53, 73.86, 70.04 points) and % skeletal muscle mass (40.78, 38.15, 33.95%) decrease with increasing age. With regard to the educational attainment, women with secondary education-apprenticeship achieved the worst results. In contrast, the values in university educated women were the best in most indicators of obesity.

Toward better outcomes with tacrolimus therapy: Population pharmacokinetics and individualized dosage prediction in adult liver transplantation

Patient outcomes in transplantation would improve if dosing of immunosuppressive agents was individualized. The aim of this study is to develop a population pharmacokinetic model of tacrolimus in adult liver transplant recipients and test this model in individualizing therapy. Population analysis was performed on data from 68 patients. Estimates were sought for apparent clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution (V/F) using the nonlinear mixed effects model program (NONMEM). Factors screened for influence on these parameters were weight, age, sex, transplant type, biliary reconstructive procedure, postoperative day, days of therapy, liver function test results, creatinine clearance, hematocrit, corticosteroid dose, and interacting drugs. The predictive performance of the developed model was evaluated through Bayesian forecasting in an independent cohort of 36 patients. No linear correlation existed between tacrolimus dosage and trough concentration (r(2) = 0.005). Mean individual Bayesian estimates for CL/F and V/F were 26.5 8.2 (SD) L/hr and 399 +/- 185 L, respectively. CL/F was greater in patients with normal liver function. V/F increased with patient weight. CL/F decreased with increasing hematocrit. Based on the derived model, a 70-kg patient with an aspartate aminotransferase (AST) level less than 70 U/L would require a tacrolimus dose of 4.7 mg twice daily to achieve a steady-state trough concentration of 10 ng/mL. A 50-kg patient with an AST level greater than 70 U/L would require a dose of 2.6 mg. Marked interindividual variability (43% to 93%) and residual random error (3.3 ng/mL) were observed. Predictions made using the final model were reasonably nonbiased (0.56 ng/mL), but imprecise (4.8 ng/mL). Pharmacokinetic information obtained will assist in tacrolimus dosing; however, further investigation into reasons for the pharmacokinetic variability of tacrolimus is required.

Of sheep and rain: large-scale population dynamics of the red kangaroo

1. We analysed time-series data from populations of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus, Desmarest) inhabiting four areas in the pastoral zone of South Australia. We formulated a set of a priori models to disentangle the relative effects of the covariates: rainfall, harvesting, intraspecific competition, and domestic herbivores, on kangaroo population-growth rate. 2. The statistical framework allowed for spatial variation in the growth-rate parameters, response to covariates, and environmental variability, as well as spatially correlated error terms due to shared environment. 3. The most parsimonious model included all covariates but no area-specific parameter values, suggesting that kangaroo densities respond in the same way to the covariates across the areas. 4. The temporal dynamics were spatially correlated, even after taking into account the potentially synchronizing effect of rainfall, harvesting and domestic herbivores. 5. Counter-intuitively, we found a positive rather than negative effect of domestic herbivore density on the population-growth rate of kangaroos. We hypothesize that this effect is caused by sheep and cattle acting as a surrogate for resource availability beyond rainfall. 6. Even though our system is well studied, we must conclude that approximating resources by surrogates such as rainfall is more difficult than previously thought. This is an important message for studies of consumer-resource systems and highlights the need to be explicit about population processes when analysing population patterns.

Some considerations on the design of population pharmacokinetic studies

The goal of this manuscript is to introduce a framework for consideration of designs for population pharmacokinetic orpharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic studies. A standard one compartment pharmacokinetic model with first-order input and elimination is considered. A series of theoretical designs are considered that explore the influence of optimizing the allocation of sampling times, allocating patients to elementary designs, consideration of sparse sampling and unbalanced designs and also the influence of single vs. multiple dose designs. It was found that what appears to be relatively sparse sampling (less blood samples per patient than the number of fixed effects parameters to estimate) can also be highly informative. Overall, it is evident that exploring the population design space can yield many parsimonious designs that are efficient for parameter estimation and that may not otherwise have been considered without the aid of optimal design theory.