Climatic and anthropogenic changes in Western Switzerland: Impacts on water stress

Recent observed hydro-climatic changes in mountainous areas are of concern as they may directly affect capacity to fulfill water needs. The canton of Vaud in Western Switzerland is an example of such a region as it has experienced water shortage episodes during the past decade. Based on an integrated modeling framework, this study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve in mountain environments and assesses their potential impacts on water stress by the 2060 horizon. Flows were simulated based on a daily semi-distributed hydrological model. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios based on two regional climate models. Regarding water needs, the authorities of the canton of Vaud provided a population growth scenario while irrigation and livestock trends followed a business-as-usual scenario. Currently, the canton of Vaud experiences moderate water stress from June to August, except in its Alpine area where no stress is noted. In the 2060 horizon, water needs could exceed 80% of the rivers' available resources in low- to mid-altitude environments in mid-summer. This arises from the combination of drier and warmer climate that leads to longer and more severe low flows, and increasing urban (+ 40%) and irrigation (+ 25%) water needs. Highlighting regional differences supports the development of sustainable development pathways to reduce water tensions. Based on a quantitative assessment, this study also calls for broader impact studies including water quality issues.

Human and climatic impact on mires: a case study of Les Amburnex mire, Swiss Jura Mountains

Modern period long-term human and climatic impacts on a small mire in the Jura Mountains were assessed using testate amoebae, macrofossils and pollen. This multiproxy data analysis permitted detailed interpretations of local and regional environmental change and thus a partial disentanglement of the different variables that influence long-term mire development. From the Middle Ages until a.d. 1700 the mire vegetation was characterised by ferns, Caltha and Vaccinium, but then abruptly changed into the modern vegetation characterised by Cyperaceae, Potentilla and Sphagnum. The cause for this change was most probably deforestation, possibly enhanced by climatic cooling. A decrease in trampling intensity by domestic animals from a.d. 1950 onwards allowed Sphagnum growth and climatic warming in the a.d. 1980s and 1990s may have been responsible for considerable changes in the species composition. The mire investigated is an example of the rapid changes in mire vegetation and peat development that occurred throughout the central European mountain region during the past centuries as a result of changing climate and land-use practice. These processes are still active today and will determine the future development of high-altitude mires.

Climatic change and contemporaneous land-use phases north and south of the Alps 2300 BC to 800 AD

Fluctuations in the Δ14C curve and subsequent gaps of archaeological findings at 800–650 and 400–100 BC in western and central Europe may indicate major climate-driven land-abandonment phases. To address this hypothesis radiocarbon-dated sediments from four lakes in Switzerland were studied palynologically. Pollen analysis indicates contemporaneous phases of forest clearances and of intensified land-use at 1450–1250 BC, 650–450 BC, 50 BC–100 AD and around 700 AD. These land-use expansions coincided with periods of warm climate as recorded by the Alpine dendroclimatic and Greenland oxygen isotope records. Our results suggest that harvest yields would have increased synchronously over wide areas of central and southern Europe during periods of warm and dry climate. Combined interpretation of palaeoecological and archaeological findings suggests that higher food production led to increased human populations. Positive long-term trends in pollen values of Cerealia and Plantago lanceolata indicate that technical innovations during the Bronze and Iron Age (e.g. metal ploughs, scythes, hay production, fertilising methods) gradually increased agricultural productivity. The successful adoption of yield-increasing advances cannot be explained by climatic determinism alone. Combined with archaeological evidence, our results suggest that despite considerable cycles of spatial and demographic reorganisation (repeated land abandonments and expansions, as well as large-scale migrations and population decreases), human societies were able to shift to lower subsistence levels without dramatic ruptures in material culture. However, our data imply that human societies were not able to compensate rapidly for harvest failures when climate deteriorated. Agriculture in marginal areas was abandoned, and spontaneous reforestations took place on abandoned land south and north of the Alps. Only when the climate changed again to drier and warmer conditions did a new wide-spread phase of forest clearances and field extensions occur, allowing the reoccupation of previously abandoned areas. Spatial distribution of cereal cultivation and growth requirements of Cerealia species suggest that increases in precipitation were far more decisive in driving crop failures over central and southern Europe than temperature decreases.

A Late-glacial and Holocene record of climatic change from a Swiss peat humification profile

Colorimetric measurements of alkaline extracts from two Swiss peat cores have provided a complete 14500-year-long record of peat humification, a proxy of effective precipitation. Peat from the cold Younger Dryas (11050–9550 cal. bc) was well preserved despite low levels of precipitation. A particularly dry period, peaking at c. 7100 cal. bc, is indicated by well-decomposed peat. Peat from c. 6750–4250 cal. bc shows a low degree of decomposition, indicating a wet bog surface despite relatively warm temperatures and therefore indicating high levels of precipitation. A sharp transition to higher levels of decomposition c. 4450–3750 cal. bc indicates a major transition to a drier bog surface. Subsequently, peat humification generally decreases towards the end of the deeper profile (c. cal. ad 1050), indicating a gradual return to wetter conditions. This gradual decrease is punctuated by periods of particularly low humification which appear to be due to shifts to higher levels of effective precipitation from c. 2500 to 1350 cal. bc, c. 1050 to 550 cal. bc, centered around 150 cal. bc, and from c. cal. ad 550 onwards. Anthropogenic influences appear to have affected peat humification at the site at least since the Middle Ages. This study indicates that humification in colder regions/time periods could be more affected by temperature than precipitation and vice versa.

Synchronous Holocene climatic oscillations recorded on the Swiss Plateau and at timberline in the Alps

Eight synchronous pre-Roman cold phases were found at 9600–9200, 8600–8150, 7550–6900, 6600– 6200, 5350–4900, 4600–4400, 3500–3200 and 2600–2350 radiocarbon years BP by reconstructing past climate at two sites on the Swiss Plateau and at timberline in the Alps. The cooling events during the early-and mid-Holocene represent temperature values similar to today, and apparently the onset of cooling events represents a deviation from today's mean annual temperature of about 1°C and is triggered at a 1000-year periodicity. At Wallisellen-Langachermoos (440 m), a former oligotrophic lake near Zürich, the correlation between sum mertime lake levels and the seed production of the amphi-Atlantic aquatic plantNajas flexilis was used to reconstruct lake levels over a 3000-year period during the first part of the Holocene. At Lake Seedorf on the western Swiss Plateau (609 m) the sedimentological, palynological and macrofossil record revealed fluctuations of lake levels for the complete Holocene. From Lago Basso in the southern Alps (2250 m, Val San Giacomo near Splügen Pass, Northern Italy) the terrestrial plant macrofossils – especiallyPinus cembra andLarix – allowed the reconstruction of timberline fluctuations controlled by climate. A similar climatic pattern was found at Gouillé Rion pond in the central Swiss Alps (2343 m, Val d'Hérémence) with plant macrofossils and pollen concentrations and percentages. We postulate that these climatic events are detectable throughout central Europe by independent methods in combination with precise AMS-radiocarbon datings on terrestrial plant remains. Our data fit other proxy records of regional climatic change, such as cool intervals from Greenland ice cores, glacier movements in the Swiss and Austrian Alps, and dendro-densitometry on subfossil wood, as well as the palaeoclimatic data from the Jura Mountains of France obtained by sedimentological analyses. Thus our data indicate that the Northern Hemisphere climate was less stable during the Holocene than previously believed.

Vegetation Changes and Timberline Fluctuations in the Central Alps as Indicators of Holocene Climatic Oscillations

Pollen and plant-macrofossil data are presented for two lakes near the timberline in the Italian (Lago Basso, 2250 m) and Swiss Central Alps (Gouille Rion, 2343 m). The reforestation at both sites started at 9700-9500 BP with Pinus cembra, Larbc decidua, and Betula. The timberline reached its highest elevation between 8700 and 5000 BP and retreated after 5000 BP, due to a mid-Holocene climatic change and increasing human impact since about 3500 BP (Bronze Age). The expansion of Picea abies at Lago Basso between ca. 7500 and 6200 BP was probably favored by cold phases accompanied by increased oceanicity, whereas in the area of Gouille Rion, where spruce expanded rather late (between 4500 and 3500 BP), human influence equally might have been important. The mass expansion of Alnus viridis between ca. 5000 and 3500 BP probably can be related to both climatic change and human activity at timberline. During the early and middle Holocene a series of timberline fluctuations is recorded as declines in pollen and macrofossil concentrations of the major tree species, and as increases in nonarboreal pollen in the pollen percentage diagram of Gouille Rion. Most of ·the periods of low timberline can be correlated by radiocarbon dating with climatic changes in the Alps as indicated by glacier ad­ vances in combination with palynological records, solifluction, and dendrocli­ matical data. Lago Basso and Gouille Rion are the only sites in the Alps showing complete palaeobotanical records of cold phases between 10,000 and 2000 BP with very good time control. The altitudinal range of the Holocene treeline fluc­ tuations caused by climate most likely was not more than 100 to 150 m. A possible correlation of a cold period at ca. 7500-6500 BP (Misox oscil­ lation) in the Alps is made with paleoecological data from North America and Scandinavia and a climatic signal in the GRIP ice core from central Greenland 8200 yr ago (ca. 7400 yr uncal. BP).

Biotic responses to rapid climatic changes

Qualitative and quantitative changes in fossil flora and fauna have been used in many studies to infer climatic change. Here we ask a different question: how do flora and fauna respond to climatic changes such as rapid warming or cooling? As an independent proxy for paleotemperature we take the ratio of oxygen isotopes in biogenically precipitated lake marl and in ostracod shells. This introductory paper describes the project design and the five sites on an altitudinal transect from 600 m to about 2300 m asl in the western Swiss Alps. As cases of climatic cooling and warming we use the beginning and end of the Younger Dryas as major changes, and the Gerzensee and Preboreal oscillations as minor changes. At the two sites of Gerzensee and Leysin these changes are recorded in stable-isotope ratios, and there the time scales can be derived by correlations to the GRIP ice core (Schwander et al., 2000 and von Grafenstein et al., 2000). Biotic responses to climate changes are treated in individual papers using pollen (Wick, 2000), plant macrofossils (Tobolski and Ammann, 2000), and remains of chironomids (Brooks, 2000), beetles and other insects (Lemdahl, 2000), and chydorid Cladocera (Hofmann, 2000). They are followed by a synthesis focusing on quantification of biotic responses (Ammann et al., 2000). In addition, a reconstruction of summer temperatures for the Allerød and the Younger Dryas at Gerzensee is provided by Lotter et al. (2000).

Quantification of biotic responses to rapid climatic changes around the Younger Dryas — a synthesis

To assess the presence or absence of lags in biotic responses to rapid climatic changes, we: (1) assume that the δ18O in biogenically precipitated carbonates record global or hemispheric climatic change at the beginning and at the end of the Younger Dryas without any lag at our two study sites of Gerzensee and Leysin, Switzerland; (2) derive a time scale by correlating the δ18O record from these two sites with the δ18O record of the GRIP ice core; (3) measure δ18O records in ostracods and molluscs to check the record in the bulk samples and to detect possible hydrological changes; (4) analyse at Gerzensee and Leysin as well as at two additional sites (that lack carbonates and hence a δ18O record) pollen, plant macrofossils, chironomids, beetles and other insects, and Cladocera; (5) estimate our sampling resolution using the GRIP time scale for the isotope stratigraphies and the biostratigraphies; and (6) summarise the major patterns of compositional change in the biostratigraphies by principal component analysis or correspondence analysis. We conclude that, at the major climatic shifts at the beginning and end of the Younger Dryas, hardly any biotic lags occur (within the sampling resolution of 8–30 years) and that upland vegetation responded as fast as aquatic invertebrates. We suggest that the minor climatic changes associated with the Gerzensee and Preboreal oscillations were weakly recorded in the biostratigraphies at the lowland site, but were more distinct at higher altitudes. Individualistic responses of plant and animal species to climatic change may reflect processes in individuals (e.g. productivity and phenology), in populations (e.g. population dynamics), in spatial distributions (e.g. migrations), and in ecosystems (e.g. trophic state). We suggest that biotic responses may be telescoped together into relatively short periods (50 to 150 years), perhaps disrupting functional interactions among species and thus destabilising ecosystems.