First look at changes in flood hazard in the inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project ensemble

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20-45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydro-graph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5-30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies.

Lightning as a space-weather hazard: UK thunderstorm activity modulated by the passage of the heliospheric current sheet

Lightning flash rates, RL, are modulated by corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and the polarity of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) in near-Earth space. As the HMF polarity reverses at the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), typically within a CIR, these phenomena are likely related. In this study, RL is found to be significantly enhanced at the HCS and at 27 days prior/after. The strength of the enhancement depends on the polarity of the HMF reversal at the HCS. Near-Earth solar and galactic energetic particle fluxes are also ordered by HMF polarity, though the variations qualitatively differ from RL, with the main increase occurring prior to the HCS crossing. Thus, the CIR effect on lightning is either the result of compression/amplification of the HMF (and its subsequent interaction with the terrestrial system) or that energetic particle preconditioning of the Earth system prior to the HMF polarity change is central to solar wind lightning coupling mechanism.

The magnetized steel and scintillator calorimeters of the MINOS experiment

The Main Injector Neutrino Oscillation Search (MINOS) experiment uses an accelerator-produced neutrino beam to perform precision measurements of the neutrino oscillation parameters in the ""atmospheric neutrino"" sector associated with muon neutrino disappearance. This long-baseline experiment measures neutrino interactions in Fermilab`s NuMI neutrino beam with a near detector at Fermilab and again 735 km downstream with a far detector in the Soudan Underground Laboratory in northern Minnesota. The two detectors are magnetized steel-scintillator tracking calorimeters. They are designed to be as similar as possible in order to ensure that differences in detector response have minimal impact on the comparisons of event rates, energy spectra and topologies that are essential to MINOS measurements of oscillation parameters. The design, construction, calibration and performance of the far and near detectors are described in this paper. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment the Health Hazard from (222)Rn in Old Metalliferous Mines in San Luis, Argentina

Radon levels in two old mines in San Luis, Argentina, are reported and analyzed. The radiation dose and environmental health risk of (222)Rn concentrations to both guides and visitors were estimated. CR-39 nuclear track detectors were used for this purpose. The values for the (222)Rn concentration at each monitoring site ranged from 0.43 +/- 0.04 to 1.48 +/- 0.12 kBq m(-3) in the Los Cndores wolfram mine and from 1.8 +/- 0.1 to 6.0 +/- 0.5 kBq center dot m(-3) in the La Carolina gold mine, indicating that, in this mine, the radon levels exceed up to four times the action level of 1.5 kBq m(-3) recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. The patterns of the radon transport process revealed that the La Carolina gold mine can be interpreted as a gas confined into a single tube with constant cross-section and air velocity. Patterns of radon activity, taking into account the chimney-effect winds, were used to detect tributary currents of air from shafts or larger fissures along the main adit of the Los Cndores mine, showing that radon can be used as an important tracer of tributary air currents stream out from fissures and smaller voids in the rock of the mine.

Determination of Thermal and Blue Light Photochemical Hazard Protection needed by Automatic Welding filters

Recent developments in biological research, has shown that the initial maximum permissible exposure (MPE) limits for protection of workers from risks associated with artificial optical radiations were more stringent than needed. Using the most recent MPE limits for artificial optical radiation this piece of work was focused on the investigation of the level of visible light attenuation needed by automatic welding filters in case of switching failure. Results from the comparison of different exposure standards were employed in investigating the need of Vis/IR and blue light transmittance requirement for automatic welding filters. Real and arbitrary spectra were taken into consideration for the worst and best case scenarios of artificial optical radiations. An excel worksheet developed during the execution of this project took into consideration the exposure from different light sources and the precision of the spectrometer used in measuring the transmittances of a welding filter. The worksheet was developed and tested with known product properties to investigate the validity of its formulation. The conclusion drawn from this project was that attenuation in the light state will be needed for products with the darkest state shade 11 or higher. Also shown is that current welding filter protects the eye well enough even in the case of switching failure.

HAZARD AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH MAJOR VOLCANOES IN THE CASCADE MOUNTAIN RANGE

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FIRE HAZARD IN COCONINO COUNTY, ARIZONA

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Fire Hazard in Coconino County, Arizona

Fire is a major management issue in the southwestern United States. Three spatial models of fire risk for Coconino County, Northern Arizona. These models were generated using thematic data layers depicting vegetation, elevation, wind speed and direction, and precipitation for January (winter), June (summer), and July (start of monsoon season). ArcGIS 9.0 was used to weight attributes in raster layers to reflect their influence on fire risk and to interpolate raster data layers from point data. Final models were generated using the raster calculator in the Spatial Analyst extension of ArcGIS 9.0. Ultimately, the unique combinations of variables resulted in three different models illustrating the change in fire risk during the year.

Hazard Areas Associated with Major Volcanoes in the Cascade Mountain Range

The Cascade Mountain Range in Washington State is the site of several active volcanoes that have the potential to erupt which would deeply affect the lives of those who live near them. This study explores the hazard areas associated with the five largest volcanoes in the region: Mt. Baker, Glacier Peak, Mt. Rainier, Mt. Adams and Mt. St. Helens. It was determined which geographic regions would be affected by tephra, pyroclastic blasts and lahar flows and the associated populations that live in each of these areas. The level of emergency preparedness necessary for a volcanic eruption could be better determined based on the findings of this study.

A general lagrangian approach for non-concave moral hazard problems

We establish a general Lagrangian for the moral hazard problem which generalizes the well known first order approach (FOA). It requires that besides the multiplier of the first order condition, there exist multipliers for the second order condition and for the binding actions of the incentive compatibility constraint. Some examples show that our approach can be useful to treat the finite and infinite state space cases. One of the examples is solved by the second order approach. We also compare our Lagrangian with 1\1irrlees'.

A general lagrangian approach for non-concave moral hazard problems

We establish a general Lagrangian for the moral hazard problem which generalizes the well known first order approach (FOA). It requires that besides the multiplier of the first order condition, there exist multipliers for the second order condition and for the binding actions of the incentive compatibility constraint. Some examples show that our approach can be useful to treat the finite and infinite state space cases. One of the examples is solved by the second order approach. We also compare our Lagrangian with 1\1irrlees'.