Sunshine, rainfall, humidity and child pneumonia in the tropics : time-series analyses

Few studies have formally examined the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of child pneumonia in the tropics, despite the fact that most child pneumonia deaths occur there. We examined the association between four meteorological exposures (rainy days, sunshine, relative humidity, temperature) and the incidence of clinical pneumonia in young children in the Philippines using three time-series methods: correlation of seasonal patterns, distributed lag regression, and case-crossover. Lack of sunshine was most strongly associated with pneumonia in both lagged regression [overall relative risk over the following 60 days for a 1-h increase in sunshine per day was 0·67 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0·51–0·87)] and case-crossover analysis [odds ratio for a 1-h increase in mean daily sunshine 8–14 days earlier was 0·95 (95% CI 0·91–1·00)]. This association is well known in temperate settings but has not been noted previously in the tropics. Further research to assess causality is needed.

A dynamic approach for evaluating earthwork hauls in construction

A graph theoretic approach is developed for accurately computing haulage costs in earthwork projects. This is vital as haulage is a predominant factor in the real cost of earthworks. A variety of metrics can be used in our approach, but a fuel consumption proxy is recommended. This approach is novel as it considers the constantly changing terrain that results from cutting and filling activities and replaces inaccurate “static” calculations that have been used previously. The approach is also capable of efficiently correcting the violation of top down cutting and bottom up filling conditions that can be found in existing earthwork assignments and sequences. This approach assumes that the project site is partitioned into uniform blocks. A directed graph is then utilised to describe the terrain surface. This digraph is altered after each cut and fill, in order to reflect the true state of the terrain. A shortest path algorithm is successively applied to calculate the cost of each haul and these costs are summed to provide a total cost of haulage

Taking culture seriously : the case of Indigenous knowledge and food security

Mainstream discourse on the revolving around food security is often portrayed by macro level indicators on nutrition, consumption and food production. While these indicators may prove significant in addressing food security in the national and regional levels, it falls short in addressing it among the indigenous peoples’ (IP) communities in the Philippines. Reflecting through the experiences in agricultural production, indigenous knowledge and socio-political institutions are relevant factors that must be seriously considered when food security among IPs are concerned. It is argued that disregarding micro level interactions over macro development policies will not address the issue of food security among marginalized sectors. The paper presents policy recommendations in taking cultural systems seriously in addressing food security among indigenous peoples.

Integrating Poverty and Gender into Health Programmes : a Source Book for Health Professionals : Module on Curricular Integration

Over the past two to three decades, our understanding of poverty has broadened from a narrow focus on income and consumption to a multidimensional notion of education, health, social and political 1 participation, personal security and freedom and environmental quality. Thus, it encompasses not just low income, but lack of access to services, resources and skills; vulnerability; insecurity; and voicelessness and powerlessness. Multidimensional poverty is a determinant of health risks, health seeking behaviour, health care access and health outcomes. As analysis of health outcomes becomes more refined, it is increasingly apparent that the impressive gains in health experienced over recent decades are unevenly distributed. Aggregate indicators, whether at the global, regional or national level, often tend to mask striking variations in health outcomes between men and women, rich and poor, both across and within countries...

Examining the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region

Dengue fever (DF) is a serious public health concern in many parts of the world. An increase in DF incidence has been observed globally over the past decades. Multiple factors including urbanisation, increased international travels and global climate change are thought to be responsible for increased DF. However, little research has been conducted in the Asia-Pacific region about the impact of these changes on dengue transmission. The overarching aim of this thesis is to explore the spatiotemporal pattern of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region and project the future risk of DF attributable to climate change. Annual data of DF outbreaks for sixteen countries in the Asia-Pacific region over the last fifty years were used in this study. The results show that the geographic range of DF in this region increased significantly over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam and Laos were identified as the highest risk areas and there was a southward expansion observed in the transmission pattern of DF which might have originated from Philippines or Thailand. Additionally, the detailed DF data were obtained and the space-time clustering of DF transmission was examined in Bangladesh. Monthly DF data were used for the entire country at the district level during 2000-2009. Dhaka district was identified as the most likely DF cluster in Bangladesh and several districts of the southern part of Bangladesh were identified as secondary clusters in the years 2000-2002. In order to examine the association between meteorological factors and DF transmission and to project the future risk of DF using different climate change scenarios, the climate-DF relationship was examined in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The results show that climate variability (particularly maximum temperature and relative humidity) was positively associated with DF transmission in Dhaka. The effects of climate variability were observed at a lag of four months which might help to potentially control and prevent DF outbreaks through effective vector management and community education. Based on the quantitative assessment of the climate-DF relationship, projected climate change will likely increase mosquito abundance and activity and DF in this area. Assuming a temperature increase of 3.3oC without any adaptation measures and significant changes in socio-economic conditions, the consequence will be devastating, with a projected annual increase of 16,030 cases in Dhaka, Bangladesh by the end of this century. Therefore, public health authorities need to be prepared for likely increase of DF transmission in this region. This study adds to the literature on the recent trends of DF and impacts of climate change on DF transmission. These findings may have significant public health implications for the control and prevention of DF, particularly in the Asia- Pacific region.

Terrorism risk, resilience and volatility : a comparison of terrorism patterns in three Southeast Asian countries

Objective This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. Methods We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity. Results Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia. Conclusions Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.

Modeling the effectiveness of counterterrorism interventions

After the terrorist attacks in the United States on 11 September 2001, terrorism and counter-terrorism efforts moved to the front of popular consciousness and became the focus of national security for governments worldwide. With this increased attention came an urgent interest in understanding and identifying what works in fighting terrorism (Belasco 2010). For Australia, understanding the relative effectiveness of counter-terrorism efforts in nearby neighbours of Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines is highly relevant for our country's national security. Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines are all countries that are important to Australia not just because of geographic proximity, but also because of a history of economic ties and the role these countries play as Australia’s regional partners...

A systematic review of community-based interventions for emerging zoonotic diseases in Southeast Asia

Background Southeast Asia has been at the epicentre of recent epidemics of emerging and re-emerging zoonotic diseases. Community-based surveillance and control interventions have been heavily promoted but the most effective interventions have not been identified. Objectives This review evaluated evidence for the effectiveness of community-based surveillance interventions at monitoring and identifying emerging infectious disease; the effectiveness of community-based control interventions at reducing rates of emerging infectious disease; and contextual factors that influence intervention effectiveness. Inclusion criteria Participants Communities in Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. Types of intervention(s) Non-pharmaceutical, non-vaccine, and community-based surveillance or prevention and control interventions targeting rabies, Nipah virus , dengue, SARS or avian influenza. Types of outcomes Primary outcomes: measures: of infection or disease; secondary outcomes: measures of intervention function. Types of studies Original quantitative studies published in English. Search strategy Databases searched (1980 to 2011): PubMed, CINAHL, ProQuest, EBSCOhost, Web of Science, Science Direct, Cochrane database of systematic reviews, WHOLIS, British Development Library, LILACS, World Bank (East Asia), Asian Development Bank. Methodological quality Two independent reviewers critically appraised studies using standard Joanna Briggs Institute instruments. Disagreements were resolved through discussion. Data extraction A customised tool was used to extract quantitative data on intervention(s), populations, study methods, and primary and secondary outcomes; and qualitative contextual information or narrative evidence about interventions. Data synthesis Data was synthesised in a narrative summary with the aid of tables. Meta-analysis was used to statistically pool quantitative results. Results Fifty-seven studies were included. Vector control interventions using copepods, environmental cleanup and education are effective and sustainable at reducing dengue in rural and urban communities, whilst insecticide spraying is effective in urban outbreak situations. Community-based surveillance interventions can effectively identify avian influenza in backyard flocks, but have not been broadly applied. Outbreak control interventions for Nipah virus and SARS are effective but may not be suitable for ongoing control. Canine vaccination and education is more acceptable than culling, but still fails to reach coverage levels required to effectively control rabies. Contextual factors were identified that influence community engagement with, and ultimately effectiveness of, interventions. Conclusion Despite investment in community-based disease control and surveillance in Southeast Asia, published evidence evaluating interventions is limited in quantity and quality. Nonetheless this review identified a number of effective interventions, and several contextual factors influencing effectiveness. Identification of the best programs will require comparative evidence of effectiveness acceptability, cost-effectiveness and sustainability.

Women, peace and security as an ASEAN priority

The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat and its member states have repeatedly professed their commitment to the protection and advancement of women’s economic and human rights. Such commitments have included the Declaration on the Advancement of Women in ASEAN in 1988, the ASEAN Declaration on the Elimination of Violence Against Women in 2004, and the ASEAN Declaration of Human Rights in 2012, as well as the establishment of the ASEAN Committee on Women in 2002 and the ASEAN Commission on the Promotion and Protection of Women and Children in 2009. However, none of these regional commitments or institutions expressly take up the core concern of the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda set out in United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1325 in 2000. ASEAN has no 1325 regional action plan and amongst the ASEAN membership, the Philippines is the only state that has adopted a 1325 National Action Plan (NAP). We explore the possible reasons for lack of ASEAN institutional engagement with 1325, outline the case for regional engagement, and suggest specific roles for ASEAN Secretariat, donor governments and individual member states to commit to UNSCR 1325 as a regional priority.

The 1989 Comprehensive Plan of Action (CPA) and refugee policy in Southeast Asia : twenty years forward what has changed?

In 2012, the only South East Asian countries that have ratified the 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees and the 1967 Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees (hereafter referred to as the 1951 Convention and 1967 Protocol) is Philippines (signed 1954), Cambodia (signed 1995) and Timor Leste (signed 2001). Countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand have annual asylum seeking populations from Myanmar, South Asia and Middle East, that are estimated to be at 15 000-20 000 per country (UNHCR 2012). The lack of a permanent and formal asylum processing process in these countries means that that asylum-seeking populations in the region are reliant on the local offices of the United Nations High Commission for Refugees based in the region to process their claims. These offices rely upon the good will of these governments to have a presence near detection camps and in capital cities to process claims of those who manage to reach the UNHCR representative office. The only burden sharing mechanism within the region primarily exists under the Bali Process on People Smuggling, Trafficking in Persons and Related Transnational Crime (the Bali Process), introduced in 2002. The Bali Process refers to an informal cooperative agreement amongst the states from the Asia-Pacific region, with Australia and Indonesia as the co-chairs, which discusses its namesake: primarily anti-people smuggling activities and migration protocols. There is no provision within this process to discuss the development of national asylum seeking legislation, processes for domestic processing of asylum claims or burden sharing in contrast to other regions such as Africa and South America (i.e. 2009 African Union Convention for the Protection and Assistance of the Internally Displaced, 1969 African Union Convention Governing the Specific Aspects of Refugee Problems in Africa and 1984 Cartagena Declaration on Refugees [Americas]) (PEF 2010: 19).

Blood transfer devices for malaria rapid diagnostic tests : evaluation of accuracy, safety and ease of use

Background: Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are increasingly used by remote health personnel with minimal training in laboratory techniques. RDTs must, therefore, be as simple, safe and reliable as possible. Transfer of blood from the patient to the RDT is critical to safety and accuracy, and poses a significant challenge to many users. Blood transfer devices were evaluated for accuracy and precision of volume transferred, safety and ease of use, to identify the most appropriate devices for use with RDTs in routine clinical care. Methods: Five devices, a loop, straw-pipette, calibrated pipette, glass capillary tube, and a new inverted cup device, were evaluated in Nigeria, the Philippines and Uganda. The 227 participating health workers used each device to transfer blood from a simulated finger-prick site to filter paper. For each transfer, the number of attempts required to collect and deposit blood and any spilling of blood during transfer were recorded. Perceptions of ease of use and safety of each device were recorded for each participant. Blood volume transferred was calculated from the area of blood spots deposited on filter paper. Results: The overall mean volumes transferred by devices differed significantly from the target volume of 5 microliters (p < 0.001). The inverted cup (4.6 microliters) most closely approximated the target volume. The glass capillary was excluded from volume analysis as the estimation method used is not compatible with this device. The calibrated pipette accounted for the largest proportion of blood exposures (23/225, 10%); exposures ranged from 2% to 6% for the other four devices. The inverted cup was considered easiest to use in blood collection (206/ 226, 91%); the straw-pipette and calibrated pipette were rated lowest (143/225 [64%] and 135/225 [60%] respectively). Overall, the inverted cup was the most preferred device (72%, 163/227), followed by the loop (61%, 138/227). Conclusions: The performance of blood transfer devices varied in this evaluation of accuracy, blood safety, ease of use, and user preference. The inverted cup design achieved the highest overall performance, while the loop also performed well. These findings have relevance for any point-of-care diagnostics that require blood sampling.

Health education and the control of intestinal worm infections in China : a new vision

Background: The transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) is associated with poverty, poor hygiene behaviour, lack of clean water and inadequate waste disposal and sanitation. Periodic administration of benzimidazole drugs is the mainstay for global STH control but it does not prevent re-infection, and is unlikely to interrupt transmission as a stand-alone intervention. Findings: We reported recently on the development and successful testing in Hunan province, PR China, of a health education package to prevent STH infections in Han Chinese primary school students. We have recently commenced a new trial of the package in the ethnically diverse Xishuangbanna autonomous prefecture in Yunnan province and the approach is also being tested in West Africa, with further expansion into the Philippines in 2015. Conclusions: The work in China illustrates well the direct impact that health education can have in improving knowledge and awareness, and in changing hygiene behaviour. Further, it can provide insight into the public health outcomes of a multi-component integrated control program, where health education prevents re-infection and periodic drug treatment reduces prevalence and morbidity.

Convergence in the ownership and governance of East Asian firms

In the past decade, policymakers in over 70 markets have introduced corporate governance codes or best practice guidelines. In East Asia, they have been introduced in Hong Kong in 1999 and 2006, Indonesia in 2000 and 2007, Malaysia in 2000 and 2007, the Philippines in 2002, Singapore iu 2001 and 2005, South Korea in 2003, Taiwan iu 2002 and Thailand iu 2006. The common focus of these codes is to encourage but not force companies to improve their corporate governance practices to a specified target level, e.g., board independence of 30%. Another commonality is that the guidelines apply to all listed companies regardless of their ownership structure or other characteristics.

Wood density : a tool to find complementary species for the design of mixed species plantations

The successful establishment and growth of mixed-species forest plantations requires that complementary or facilitatory species be identified. This can be difficult in many tropical areas because the growth characteristics of endemic species are often unknown, particularly when grown at potentially higher densities in plantations than in natural forests. Here, we investigate whether wood density is a useful and readily accessible trait for choosing complementary species for mixed species plantations. Wood density represents the carbon investment per unit volume of stem with a trade-off generally found between fast (low wood density) and slow (high wood density) growing species. To do this, we use data collected from 18 highly diverse mixed species plantations (4–23 mostly native species) aged from 6 to 11 years at the time of data collection located on Leyte Island, Philippines. We found significant negative correlations between wood densities and the height of the most abundant species, as well as with measures of overall stand growth and tree diameter size distribution. Not only do species with denser woods have slower growth rates, but also mixed-species plantations with higher average wood density and higher stem density were also less productive, at least in these young plantations. Similarly, stands with a high diversity in wood densities were less productive. There is growing interest in making greater use of native multi-species mixtures in smallholder and community planting programs in the tropics, and our results show databases of wood density values may help improve their design. In the early development stages of plantations, canopy closure and rapid height growth are usually key silvicultural targets, and wood density values can predict the rapid height development of species. If plantations are being grown for the livelihood of small landholders then the best target is to choose some species with different wood densities. This allows an early harvest of low-wood density species for early income, and will also reduce competition for slower growing trees with higher wood densities for later income generation.