The importance and accuracy of wind power forecasts

Due to the global crisis o f climate change many countries throughout the world are installing the renewable energy o f wind power into their electricity system. Wind energy causes complications when it is being integrated into the electricity system due its intermittent nature. Additionally winds intennittency can result in penalties being enforced due to the deregulation in the electricity market. Wind power forecasting can play a pivotal role to ease the integration o f wind energy. Wind power forecasts at 24 and 48 hours ahead of time are deemed the most crucial for determining an appropriate balance on the power system. In the electricity market wind power forecasts can also assist market participants in terms o f applying a suitable bidding strategy, unit commitment or have an impact on the value o f the spot price. For these reasons this study investigates the importance o f wind power forecasts for such players as the Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Investigation in this study is also conducted into the impacts that wind power forecasts can have on the electricity market in relation to bidding strategies, spot price and unit commitment by examining various case studies. The results o f these case studies portray a clear and insightful indication o f the significance o f availing from the information available from wind power forecasts. The accuracy o f a particular wind power forecast is also explored. Data from a wind power forecast is examined in the circumstances o f both 24 and 48 hour forecasts. The accuracy o f the wind power forecasts are displayed through a variety o f statistical approaches. The results o f the investigation can assist market participants taking part in the electricity pool and also provides a platform that can be applied to any forecast when attempting to define its accuracy. This study contributes significantly to the knowledge in the area o f wind power forecasts by explaining the importance o f wind power forecasting within the energy sector. It innovativeness and uniqueness lies in determining the accuracy o f a particular wind power forecast that was previously unknown.

Efficiency and environmental regulation: a 'complex situation'

Production of desirable outputs is often accompanied by undesirable by products that have damaging effects on the environment, and whose disposal is frequently regulated by public authorities. In this paper, we compute directional technology distance functions under particular assumptions concerning disposability of bads in order to test for the existence of what we call ‘complex situations’, where the biggest producer is not the greatest polluter. Furthermore, we show that how in such situations, environmental regulation could achieve an effective reduction in the aggregate level of bad outputs without reducing the production of good outputs. Finally, we illustrate our methodology with an empirical application to a sample of Spanish tile ceramic producers.

Reference prices: the spanish way

The aim of this paper is to analyse the effects of recent regulatory reforms that Spanish Health Authorities have implemented in the pharmaceutical market: the introduction of a reference price system together with the promotion of generic drugs. The main objectives of these two reforms are to increase price competition and, ultimately, reduce pharmaceutical costs. Before the introduction of reference prices, consumers had to pay a fixed copayment of the price of whatever drug purchased. With the introduction of such system, the situation differs in the following way: if (s)he buys the more expensive branded drug, then (s)he pays a sum of two elements: the copayment associated to the reference price plus the difference between the price of this good and the reference price. However, if the consumer decides to buy the generic alternative, with price lower than the reference price, then (s)he has to pay the same copayment as before. We show that the introduction of a reference price system together with the promotion of generic drugs increase price competition and lower pharmaceutical costs only if the reference price is set in a certain interval. Also profits for the duopolists might be reduced. These results are due to the opposing effects that reference prices have on branded and generic producers respectively.

The Determinants of pricing in pharmaceuticals: are U.S. prices really higher than those of Canada?

This paper studies price determination in pharmaceutical markets using data for 25 countries, six years and a comprehensive list of products from the MIDAS IMS database. We show that market power and the quality of the product has a significantly positive impact of prices. The nationality of the producer appears to have a small and often insignificant impact on prices, which suggests that countries which regulates prices have relatively little power to do it in a way that advances narrow national interest. We produce a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on the fact that low negotiated prices in a country would have a knock-on effect in other markets, and is thus strongly resisted by producers. Another key finding is that the U.S. has prices that are not significantly higher than those of countries with similar income levels. This, together with the former observation on the effect of the nationality of producers casts doubt on the ability of countries to purs

Array de DNA per identificar espècies de Fusarium: ampliació d'un array existent per incloure espècies del Sud d'Europa

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada al Department for Feed and Food Hygiene del National Veterinary Institute, Noruega, entre novembre i desembre del 2006. Els grans de cereal poden estar contaminats amb diferents espècies de Fusarium capaces de produir metabolits secundaris altament tòxics com trichotecenes, fumonisines o moniliformines. La correcta identificació d’aquestes espècies és de gran importància per l’assegurament del risc en l’àmbit de la salut humana i animal. La identificació de Fusarium en base a la seva morfologia requereix coneixements taxonòmics i temps; la majoria dels mètodes moleculars permeten la identificació d’una única espècie diana. Per contra, la tecnologia de microarray ofereix l’anàlisi paral•lel d’un alt nombre de DNA dianes. En aquest treball, s’ha desenvolupat un array per a la identificació de les principals espècies de Fusarium toxigèniques del Nord i Sud d’Europa. S’ha ampliat un array ja existent, per a la detecció de les espècies de Fusarium productores de trichothecene i moniliformina (predominants al Nord d’Europa), amb l’addició de 18 sondes de DNA que permeten identificar les espècies toxigèniques més abundants al Sud d’Europa, les qual produeixen majoritàriament fumonisines. Les sondes de captura han estat dissenyades en base al factor d’elongació translació- 1 alpha (TEF-1alpha). L’anàlisi de les mostres es realitza mitjançant una única PCR que permet amplificar part del TEF-1alpha seguida de la hibridació al xip de Fusarium. Els resultats es visualitzen mitjançant un mètode de detecció colorimètric. El xip de Fusarium desenvolupat pot esdevenir una eina útil i de gran interès per a l’anàlisi de cereals presents en la cadena alimentària.

Venda de kiwis online: www.prosmokiwi.com

Avui en dia la venda de productes, mitjançant les possibilitats que ens ofereix Internet, es troba en ple creixement. Aquest projecte pretén posar en funcionament una pàgina Web dedicada a la venda de fruita, concretament kiwis. Des de fa un temps, la població comença a ser conscient del desequilibri entre l'agent productor i l'agent comercial. Com passa també en altres sectors, el productor ven a un preu molt inferior respecte al que després es ficarà de cara al comprador final. En el cas de la fruita, el client acaba comprant un producte més car i normalment de menys qualitat. L'objectiu principal d'aquest projecte és promoure la venda online a partir d'una mercaderia de qualitat i més econòmica, aconseguint un major benefici tant per part del productor com del client.

Export-market dynamics and the probability of firm closure: Evidence for the UK

This study presents the first empirical analysis of the determinants of firm closure in the UK with an emphasis on the role of export-market dynamics, using panel data for a nationally representative group of firms operating in all-market based sectors during 1997-2003. Our findings show that the probability of closure is (cet. par.) significantly lower for exporters, particularly those experiencing export-market entry and exit. Having controlled for other attributes associated with productivity (such as size and export status), the following factors are found to increase the firm’s survival prospects: higher capital intensity and TFP, foreign ownership, young age, displacement effects (through relatively high rates of entry of firms in each industry), and belonging to certain industries. Interestingly, increased import penetration (a proxy for lower trade costs) leads to a lower hazard rate for exporting entrants and continuous exporters, whilst inducing a higher hazard rate for domestic producers or those that quit exporting.

Outsourcing versus FDI in oligopoly equilibrium

We consider the make-or-buy decision of oligopolistic firms in an industry in which final good production requires specialised inputs. Factor price considerations dictate that firms acquire the intermediate abroad, by either producing it in a wholly owned subsidiary or outsourcing it to a supplier who must make a relationship specific investment. Firms’ internationalisation mode depends on cost and strategic considerations. Crucially, asymmetric equilibria emerge, with firms choosing different modes of internationalisation, even when they are ex-ante identical. With ex-ante asymmetries, lower cost producers have a stronger incentive to vertically integrate (FDI), while higher cost firms are more likely to outsource.

Local Currency Pricing, Foreign Monetary Shocks and Exchange Rate Policy

The implications of local currency pricing (LCP) for monetary regime choice are analysed for a country facing foreign monetary shocks. In this analysis expenditure switching is potentially welfare reducing. This contrasts with the existing LCP literature, which focuses on productivity shocks and thus analyses a world where expenditure switching is welfare enhancing. This paper shows that, when home and foreign producers follow LCP, expenditure switching is absent and a floating rate is preferred by the home country. But when only home producers follow LCP, expenditure switching is present and a fixed rate can be welfare enhancing for the home country.

The Fair Trade movement: an economic perspective

Fair Trade (FT) products such as coffee and textiles are becoming increasingly popular with altruistic consumers all over the world. This paper seeks to understand the economic effects of this grassroots movement which directly links ethically-minded consumers in industrialised countries with marginalised producers in developing economies. We extend the Ricardian trade model and introduce a FT sector in developing South that offers a fair wage – the FT premium. There are indeed positive welfare effects from FT but those come at the expense of rising inequalities within South which are in turn a rational by-product of FT. The degree of inequalities depends on the specifics of the cooperative structures in the FT sector. Given the rigidities and inequalities FT introduces and rests upon, this form of alternative trade appears to be only sustainable as niche movement.

Trade Costs, International Competition and Selection: The Effects of Unionisation on Market Size

Within a two-country model of international trade in which heterogeneous firms face firm-specific unions, we study the effects of different forms of trade liberalisation on market structure and competitive selection in the presence of inter-country asymmetries in size and labour market institutions. For given levels of trade openness, an increase in a country’s relative unions’ strength reduces the average productivity of its domestic producers but increases that of its exporters. Whilst an unfavourable union power differential, by increasing wages, weakens a country’s firms’ competitive position, the higher wages reinforce standard market access mechanisms to give rise to aggregate income effects. When the initial levels of trade openness are sufficiently low, this ‘expansionary’ aggregate effect can attract industry in the country with stronger unions and also result in an increase in the extensive margin of exports. For sufficiently large inter-country differences in the bargaining power of unions, trade liberalization can then result in a pro-variety effect, with an increase in the total availability of varieties to consumers in both countries, regardless of there being inter-country differences in size.

El problema de una sensibilización del campo de la moralidad en la filosofia trascendental de Kant

La problemática de la investigación se plantea en el contexto de la filosofía trascendental de Kant, en relación al modo en que es en general posible para nosotros representarnos el ámbito de la moralidad. Nuestra comprensión natural o preteórica del funcionamiento del lenguaje parece llevarnos a entender el significado de nuestras palabras en términos de la relación que se establece entre el signo lingüístico y el objeto: nuestros términos lingüísticos están en el lugar del objeto extralingüístico a que refieren y que constituye su significado. A nuestro modo de ver, la afirmación kantiana relativa a que todo nuestro conocimiento comienza con la experiencia, es decir, con aquello que procede de los sentidos, parece estar apuntando a esta intuición fundamental. Ahora bien, la cuestión que cabe plantearse es: de acuerdo con este modelo de significación, ¿cuál es el significado de nuestros términos morales? Si, con Kant, aceptamos que el concepto de deber moral exige el cumplimiento (u omisión) incondicionado de una acción y que, precisamente por las exigencias de universalidad y necesidad que le son inherentes, tal concepto es inderivable de la experiencia, cabe preguntarse cuál es el significado del concepto de deber en sentido moral (y, en general, de los términos morales) y de qué manera somos capaces de representárnoslo. Mi investigación ha pretendido esclarecer precisamente en qué sentido debe entenderse la afirmación kantiana de que en la reflexión sobre la corrección moral de nuestras acciones, para representarnos las exigencias de universalidad y necesidad que son propias del concepto de deber moral, nos servimos analógicamente del concepto de naturaleza, así como analizar la plausibilidad de la propuesta kantiana misma.

Price Transmission and Effects of Exchange Rates on Domestic Commodity Prices via Offshore and Currency Hedging

The framework presents how trading in the foreign commodity futures market and the forward exchange market can affect the optimal spot positions of domestic commodity producers and traders. It generalizes the models of Kawai and Zilcha (1986) and Kofman and Viaene (1991) to allow both intermediate and final commodities to be traded in the international and futures markets, and the exporters/importers to face production shock, domestic factor costs and a random price. Applying mean-variance expected utility, we find that a rise in the expected exchange rate can raise both supply and demand for commodities and reduce domestic prices if the exchange rate elasticity of supply is greater than that of demand. Whether higher volatilities of exchange rate and foreign futures price can reduce the optimal spot position of domestic traders depends on the correlation between the exchange rate and the foreign futures price. Even though the forward exchange market is unbiased, and there is no correlation between commodity prices and exchange rates, the exchange rate can still affect domestic trading and prices through offshore hedging and international trade if the traders are interested in their profit in domestic currency. It illustrates how the world prices and foreign futures prices of commodities and their volatility can be transmitted to the domestic market as well as the dynamic relationship between intermediate and final goods prices. The equilibrium prices depends on trader behaviour i.e. who trades or does not trade in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward currency markets. The empirical result applying a two-stage-least-squares approach to Thai rice and rubber prices supports the theoretical result.

Competing for Attention: Is the Showiest also the Best?

We introduce attention games. Alternatives ranked by quality (producers, politicians, sexual partners...) desire to be chosen and compete for the imperfect attention of a chooser by investing in their own salience. We prove that if alternatives can control the attention they get, then ”the showiest is the best”: the equilibrium ordering of salience (weakly) reproduces the quality ranking and the best alternative is the one that gets picked most often. This result also holds under more general conditions. However, if those conditions fail, then even the worst alternative can be picked most often.

Firm dynamics support the importance of the embodied question

This paper contributes to the literature on both embodied technical progress and firm dynamics, by formulating an endogenous growth model where selection and imitation play a fundamental role in helping capital good producers to learn about the productivity of technologies embodied in new plants. By calibrating the model to some key aggregates particularly relevant for the embodied capital literature, among them the growth rate of the relative investment price, the model quantitatively replicates the main facts associated to firm dynamics, such as the entry rate and the tail index of the establishment size distribution. In line with the previous literature, it also predicts a contribution to productivity growth of embodied technical progress and selection of around 60%