NMR, Metabonomics and Molecular Profiles: Applications to the Quality Assessment of Foodstuffs

Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) is a branch of spectroscopy that is based on the fact that many atomic nuclei may be oriented by a strong magnetic field and will absorb radiofrequency radiation at characteristic frequencies. The parameters that can be measured on the resulting spectral lines (line positions, intensities, line widths, multiplicities and transients in time-dependent experi-ments) can be interpreted in terms of molecular structure, conformation, molecular motion and other rate processes. In this way, high resolution (HR) NMR allows performing qualitative and quantitative analysis of samples in solution, in order to determine the structure of molecules in solution and not only. In the past, high-field NMR spectroscopy has mainly concerned with the elucidation of chemical structure in solution, but today is emerging as a powerful exploratory tool for probing biochemical and physical processes. It represents a versatile tool for the analysis of foods. In literature many NMR studies have been reported on different type of food such as wine, olive oil, coffee, fruit juices, milk, meat, egg, starch granules, flour, etc using different NMR techniques. Traditionally, univariate analytical methods have been used to ex-plore spectroscopic data. This method is useful to measure or to se-lect a single descriptive variable from the whole spectrum and , at the end, only this variable is analyzed. This univariate methods ap-proach, applied to HR-NMR data, lead to different problems due especially to the complexity of an NMR spectrum. In fact, the lat-ter is composed of different signals belonging to different mole-cules, but it is also true that the same molecules can be represented by different signals, generally strongly correlated. The univariate methods, in this case, takes in account only one or a few variables, causing a loss of information. Thus, when dealing with complex samples like foodstuff, univariate analysis of spectra data results not enough powerful. Spectra need to be considered in their wholeness and, for analysing them, it must be taken in consideration the whole data matrix: chemometric methods are designed to treat such multivariate data. Multivariate data analysis is used for a number of distinct, differ-ent purposes and the aims can be divided into three main groups: • data description (explorative data structure modelling of any ge-neric n-dimensional data matrix, PCA for example); • regression and prediction (PLS); • classification and prediction of class belongings for new samples (LDA and PLS-DA and ECVA). The aim of this PhD thesis was to verify the possibility of identify-ing and classifying plants or foodstuffs, in different classes, based on the concerted variation in metabolite levels, detected by NMR spectra and using the multivariate data analysis as a tool to inter-pret NMR information. It is important to underline that the results obtained are useful to point out the metabolic consequences of a specific modification on foodstuffs, avoiding the use of a targeted analysis for the different metabolites. The data analysis is performed by applying chemomet-ric multivariate techniques to the NMR dataset of spectra acquired. The research work presented in this thesis is the result of a three years PhD study. This thesis reports the main results obtained from these two main activities: A1) Evaluation of a data pre-processing system in order to mini-mize unwanted sources of variations, due to different instrumental set up, manual spectra processing and to sample preparations arte-facts; A2) Application of multivariate chemiometric models in data analy-sis.

Synthesis and characterization of structurally well-defined polymer-layered silicate nanocomposites

Zusammenfassung Nanokomposite aus Polymeren und Schichtsilikaten werden zumeist auf der Basis natürlicher Tone wie Montmorillonit hergestellt. Für NMR- und EPR-Untersuchungen der Tensidschicht, die das Silikat mit dem Polymer kompatibilisiert, ist der Eisengehalt natürlicher Tone jedoch abträglich, weil er zu einer Verkürzung der Relaxationszeiten und zu einer Linienverbreiterung in den Spektren führt. Dieses Problem konnte überwunden werden, indem als Silikatkomponente eisenfreies, strukturell wohldefiniertes Magadiit hydrothermal synthetisiert und für die Kompositbildung eingesetzt wurde. Die Morphologie des Magadiits wurde durch Rasterelektronenmikroskopie charakterisiert und der Interkalationsgrad von schmelzinterkalierten Polymer-Nanokompositen wurde durch Weitwinkelröntgenstreuung bestimmt. Polymere mit Carbonylgruppen scheinen leichter zu interkalieren als solche ohne Carbonylgruppen. Polycaprolacton interkalierte sowohl in Oragnomagadiite auf der Basis von Ammoniumtensiden als auch in solche auf der Basis von Phosphoniumtensiden. Die Dynamik auf einer Nanosekundenzeitskala und die Struktur der Tensidschicht wurden mittels ortsspezifisch spinmarkierter Tensidsonden unter Nutzung von Dauerstrich- (CW) und Puls-Methoden der elektronenparamagnetischen Resonanzspektroskopie (EPR) untersucht. Zusätzlich wurde die statische 2H-Kernmagnetresonanz (NMR) an spezifisch deuterierten Tensiden angewendet, um die Tensiddynamik auf einer komplementären Zeitskala zwischen Mikrosekunden und Millisekunden zu erfassen. Sowohl die CW-EPR- als auch die 2H-NMR-Ergebnisse zeigen eine Beschleunigung der Tensiddynamik durch Interkalation von Polycaprolacton auf, während sich in den nichtinterkalierten Mikrokompositen mit Polystyrol die Tensiddynamik verlangsamt. Die Rotationskorrelationszeiten und Aktivierungsenergien offenbaren verschiedene Regime der Tensiddynamik. In Polystyrol-Mikrokompositen entspricht die Übergangstemperatur zwischen den Regimen der Glasübergangstemperatur von Polystyrol, während sie in Polycaprolacton-Nanokompositen bei der Schmelztemperatur von Polycaprolacton liegt. Durch die erhebliche Verlängerung der Elektronenspin-Relaxationszeiten bei Verwendung von eisenfreiem Magadiit können Messdaten hoher Qualität mit Puls-EPR-Experimenten erhalten werden. Insebsondere wurden die Vier-Puls-Elektron-Elektron-Doppelresonanz (DEER), die Elektronenspinechoenveloppenmodulation (ESEEM) und die Elektronen-Kern-Doppelresonanz (ENDOR) an spinmarkierten sowie spezifisch deuterierten Tensiden angewandt. Die ENDOR-Ergebnisse legen ein Model der Tensidschicht nahe, in dem zusätzlich zu den Oberflächenlagen auf dem Silikat eine wohldefinierte mittlere Lage existiert. Dieses Modell erklärt auch Verdünnungseffekte durch das Polymer in Kompositen mit Polycaprolacton und Polystyrol. Die umfangreiche Information aus den Magnetresonanztechniken ergänzt die Information aus konventionellen Charakterisierungstechniken wie Röntgendiffraktion und Transmissionselektronenmikroskopie und führt so zu einem detaillierteren Bild der Struktur und Dynamik der Tensidschicht in Nanokompositen aus Polymeren und Schichtsilikaten.

Charakterisierung von plasmafunktionalisierten Oberflächen mittels ToF-SIMS und multivariaten Analysemethoden

Die grundlegenden Prinzipien und Möglichkeiten der Oberflächencharakterisierung mittels ToF-SIMS (Flugzeit-Sekundärionen Massenspektrometrie) werden an ausgewählten Beispielen aus einem aktuell laufenden und vom BMBF geförderten Verbundforschungsprojekt (Fkz: 03N8022A) zum Thema Nanofunktionalisierung von Grenzflächen vorgestellt. Ein Schwerpunkt innerhalb des Projekts stellen die nichtgeschlossenen Schichtsysteme dar, die entweder über Domänenstrukturen oder einer definierten Einzelfunktionalisierung neuartige funktionelle Oberflächen bereitstellen. Mithilfe der sehr oberflächensensitiven ToF-SIMS Methode sowie der Möglichkeit einer graphischen Darstellung lateraler Molekülionenverteilungen auf funktionalisierten Oberflächen können Informationen über Struktur und Belegungsdichte der Funktionsschicht gewonnen werden. Die Kombination des ToF-SIMS Experimentes und eines multivariaten Algorithmus (partial least squares, PLS) liefert eine interessante Möglichkeit zur quantitativen und simultanen Bestimmung von Oberflächeneigenschaften (Element- und molekulare Konzentrationen sowie Kontaktwinkelwerte). Da das ToF-SIMS Spektrum einer plasmafunktionalisierten Oberfläche im Allgemeinen eine Vielzahl unterschiedlicher Fragmentsignale enthält, lässt eine einfache eindimensionale Korrelation (z.B. CF3 - Fragmentintensität ßà CF3-Konzentration) den größten Teil der im Spektrum prinzipiell enthaltenen Information unberücksichtigt. Aufgrund der großen Anzahl von atomaren und molekularen Signalen, die repräsentativ für die chemische Struktur der analysierten Oberflächen sind, ist es sinnvoll, diese Fülle von Informationen zur Quantifizierung der Oberflächeneigenschaften (Elementkonzentrationen, Kontaktwinkel etc.) zu verwenden. Zusätzlich ermöglicht diese Methode eine quantitative Bestimmung der Oberflächeneigenschaften auf nur µm-großen Bereichen. Das ist vorteilhaft für Untersuchungen chemisch strukturierter Oberflächen, da die Größe der Strukturierung für viele Anwendungen in einem Bereich von mehreren µm liegt. Anhand eines Beispieles aus dem biologisch-medizinischen Fachgebiet, soll der erfolgreiche Einsatz multivariater Modelle aufgezeigt werden. In diesem Experiment wurden menschlichen Bindegewebs- (Fibroblasten) und Pankreaszellen auf plasmafunktionalisiserten Oberflächen kultiviert, um die Beeinflussung der Funktionalisierung auf das Zellwachstum zu untersuchen. Die plasmabehandelten Oberflächen wurden durch die Verwendung von TEM-Gittern mit µm-großen Öffnungen chemisch strukturiert und das Wachstumsverhalten der Zellen beobachtet. Jedem dieser µm-großen Bereiche können mithilfe der multivariaten Modelle quantitative Größen zugeordnet werden (Konzentrationen und Kontaktwinkelwerte), die zur Interpretation des Wachstumsverhaltens der Zellen beitragen.

Development of methodologies for fish freshness assessment using metabonomics applications.

This study focuses on the use of metabonomics applications in measuring fish freshness in various biological species and in evaluating how they are stored. This metabonomic approach is innovative and is based upon molecular profiling through nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). On one hand, the aim is to ascertain if a type of fish has maintained, within certain limits, its sensory and nutritional characteristics after being caught; and on the second, the research observes the alterations in the product’s composition. The spectroscopic data obtained through experimental nuclear magnetic resonance, 1H-NMR, of the molecular profiles of the fish extracts are compared with those obtained on the same samples through analytical and conventional methods now in practice. These second methods are used to obtain chemical indices of freshness through biochemical and microbial degradation of the proteic nitrogen compounds and not (trimethylamine, N-(CH3)3, nucleotides, amino acids, etc.). At a later time, a principal components analysis (PCA) and a linear discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) are performed through a metabonomic approach to condense the temporal evolution of freshness into a single parameter. In particular, the first principal component (PC1) under both storage conditions (4 °C and 0 °C) represents the component together with the molecular composition of the samples (through 1H-NMR spectrum) evolving during storage with a very high variance. The results of this study give scientific evidence supporting the objective elements evaluating the freshness of fish products showing those which can be labeled “fresh fish.”

Entrepreneurship influential factors in development of rural tourism as diversified rural activity in Republic of Macedonia

Rural tourism is relatively new product in the process of diversification of the rural economy in Republic of Macedonia. This study used desk research and life story interviews of rural tourism entrepreneurs as qualitative research method to identify prevalent success influential factors. Further quantitative analysis was applied in order to measure the strength of influence of identified success factors. The primary data for the quantitative research was gathered using telephone questionnaire composed of 37 questions with 5-points Likert scale. The data was analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) by SmartPLS 3.1.6. Results indicated that human capital, social capital, entrepreneurial personality and external business environment are predominant influential success factors. However, human capital has non-significant direct effect on success (p 0.493) nonetheless the effect was indirect with high level of partial mediation through entrepreneurial personality as mediator (VAF 73%). Personality of the entrepreneur, social capital and business environment have direct positive affect on entrepreneurial success (p 0.001, 0.003 and 0.045 respectably). Personality also mediates the positive effect of social capital on entrepreneurial success (VAF 28%). Opposite to the theory the data showed no interaction between social and human capital on the entrepreneurial success. This research suggests that rural tourism accommodation entrepreneurs could be more successful if there is increased support in development of social capital in form of conservation of cultural heritage and natural attractions. Priority should be finding the form to encourage and support the establishment of formal and informal associations of entrepreneurs in order to improve the conditions for management and marketing of the sector. Special support of family businesses in the early stages of the operation would have a particularly positive impact on the success of rural tourism. Local infrastructure, access to financial instruments, destination marketing and entrepreneurial personality have positive effect on success.

Co-frangitura oliva e nocciola: Studio del prodotto

In recent times, the choices of consumers have been more conscious and oriented to foods with health benefits. The present paper deals with the study of oil from crushing of olive and huzelnut with the aim of obtaining a “functional food”. Different samples of oil derived from the crushing of olive (O), olive with 5% of hazelnut (O5N) and olive with 10% of hazelnut (O10N), exposed to different temperatures (28 and 35°C) and times (15 and 30 minutes) of malaxation. The samples of oil were initially subjected to a qualitative assessment by the analysis of peroxide and free acidity. Following further analyses were carried out namely the determination of fatty acids and triglycerides by FAST GC-FID, the determination of tocopherols by HPLC-FLC, the analysis of sterols by GC/MS and the spectroscopic analysis with FT-MIR combined with statistical analysis with PCA and PLS. The results showed that increasing the time and temperature of malaxation there aren’t relevant significant differences (p<0,05) in the composition of fatty acids, triglycerides and tocopherols in the different oils, but there are higher extraction yields. The increase of content of hazelnut in phase of crushing causes the decrease of triglycerides C50 and C52, the increase of the class C54, total tocopherols and of total sterols as well. The samples analysed with FT-MIR spectroscopy have showed, on the contrary to conventional analytical techniques, a good discrimination between different oils despite of the similar chemical composition of olive and hazelnuts. After the PLS models were built from spectra FT-MIR in order to estimate the content of triglycerides C50, C52 and C54 and total tocopherols, with good R2 in full cross validation (R2>0,821).

Investigation of different apple cultivars by high resolution magic angle spinning NMR. A feasibility study

(1)H HR-MAS NMR spectroscopy was applied to apple tissue samples deriving from 3 different cultivars. The NMR data were statistically evaluated by analysis of variance (ANOVA), principal component analysis (PCA), and partial least-squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA). The intra-apple variability of the compounds was found to be significantly lower than the inter-apple variability within one cultivar. A clear separation of the three different apple cultivars could be obtained by multivariate analysis. Direct comparison of the NMR spectra obtained from apple tissue (with HR-MAS) and juice (with liquid-state HR NMR) showed distinct differences in some metabolites, which are probably due to changes induced by juice preparation. This preliminary study demonstrates the feasibility of (1)H HR-MAS NMR in combination with multivariate analysis as a tool for future chemometric studies applied to intact fruit tissues, e.g. for investigating compositional changes due to physiological disorders, specific growth or storage conditions.

Exploring High-resolution Magic Angle Spinning (HR-MAS) NMR Spectroscopy for Metabonomic Analysis of Apples

Classical liquid-state high-resolution (HR) NMR spectroscopy has proved a powerful tool in the metabonomic analysis of liquid food samples like fruit juices. In this paper the application of (1)H high-resolution magic angle spinning (HR-MAS) NMR spectroscopy to apple tissue is presented probing its potential for metabonomic studies. The (1)H HR-MAS NMR spectra are discussed in terms of the chemical composition of apple tissue and compared to liquid-state NMR spectra of apple juice. Differences indicate that specific metabolic changes are induced by juice preparation. The feasibility of HR-MAS NMR-based multivariate analysis is demonstrated by a study distinguishing three different apple cultivars by principal component analysis (PCA). Preliminary results are shown from subsequent studies comparing three different cultivation methods by means of PCA and partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) of the HR-MAS NMR data. The compounds responsible for discriminating organically grown apples are discussed. Finally, an outlook of our ongoing work is given including a longitudinal study on apples.

Application and comparison of classification algorithms for recognition of Alzheimer's disease in electrical brain activity (EEG)

The early detection of subjects with probable Alzheimer's disease (AD) is crucial for effective appliance of treatment strategies. Here we explored the ability of a multitude of linear and non-linear classification algorithms to discriminate between the electroencephalograms (EEGs) of patients with varying degree of AD and their age-matched control subjects. Absolute and relative spectral power, distribution of spectral power, and measures of spatial synchronization were calculated from recordings of resting eyes-closed continuous EEGs of 45 healthy controls, 116 patients with mild AD and 81 patients with moderate AD, recruited in two different centers (Stockholm, New York). The applied classification algorithms were: principal component linear discriminant analysis (PC LDA), partial least squares LDA (PLS LDA), principal component logistic regression (PC LR), partial least squares logistic regression (PLS LR), bagging, random forest, support vector machines (SVM) and feed-forward neural network. Based on 10-fold cross-validation runs it could be demonstrated that even tough modern computer-intensive classification algorithms such as random forests, SVM and neural networks show a slight superiority, more classical classification algorithms performed nearly equally well. Using random forests classification a considerable sensitivity of up to 85% and a specificity of 78%, respectively for the test of even only mild AD patients has been reached, whereas for the comparison of moderate AD vs. controls, using SVM and neural networks, values of 89% and 88% for sensitivity and specificity were achieved. Such a remarkable performance proves the value of these classification algorithms for clinical diagnostics.

Classification Using Generalized Partial Least Squares

The advances in computational biology have made simultaneous monitoring of thousands of features possible. The high throughput technologies not only bring about a much richer information context in which to study various aspects of gene functions but they also present challenge of analyzing data with large number of covariates and few samples. As an integral part of machine learning, classification of samples into two or more categories is almost always of interest to scientists. In this paper, we address the question of classification in this setting by extending partial least squares (PLS), a popular dimension reduction tool in chemometrics, in the context of generalized linear regression based on a previous approach, Iteratively ReWeighted Partial Least Squares, i.e. IRWPLS (Marx, 1996). We compare our results with two-stage PLS (Nguyen and Rocke, 2002A; Nguyen and Rocke, 2002B) and other classifiers. We show that by phrasing the problem in a generalized linear model setting and by applying bias correction to the likelihood to avoid (quasi)separation, we often get lower classification error rates.

Biogeochemical variability during the past 3.6 million years recorded by FTIR spectroscopy in the sediment record of Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic

Abstract. A number of studies have shown that Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIRS) can be applied to quantitatively assess lacustrine sediment constituents. In this study, we developed calibration models based on FTIRS for the quantitative determination of biogenic silica (BSi; n = 420; gradient: 0.9–56.5 %), total organic carbon (TOC; n = 309; gradient: 0–2.9 %), and total inorganic carbon (TIC; n = 152; gradient: 0–0.4 %) in a 318 m-long sediment record with a basal age of 3.6 million years from Lake El’gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic. The developed partial least squares (PLS) regression models yield high cross-validated (CV) R2 CV = 0.86–0.91 and low root mean square error of crossvalidation (RMSECV) (3.1–7.0% of the gradient for the different properties). By applying these models to 6771 samples from the entire sediment record, we obtained detailed insight into bioproductivity variations in Lake El’gygytgyn throughout the middle to late Pliocene and Quaternary. High accumulation rates of BSi indicate a productivity maximum during the middle Pliocene (3.6–3.3 Ma), followed by gradually decreasing rates during the late Pliocene and Quaternary. The average BSi accumulation during the middle Pliocene was �3 times higher than maximum accumulation rates during the past 1.5 million years. The indicated progressive deterioration of environmental and climatic conditions in the Siberian Arctic starting at ca. 3.3 Ma is consistent with the first occurrence of glacial periods and the finally complete establishment of glacial–interglacial cycles during the Quaternary.

Impact of different cultivation methods on the metabolic profile of apples studied by 1H HR-MAS NMR spectroscopy

The cultivation of dessert apples has to meet the consumer's increasing demand for high fruit quality and a sustainable mostly residue-free production while ensuring a competitive agricultural productivity. It is therefore of great interest to know the impact of different cultivation methods on the fruit quality and the chemical composition, respectively. Previous studies have demonstrated the feasibility of High Resolution Magic Angle Spinning (HR-MAS) NMR spectroscopy directly performed on apple tissue as analytical tool for metabonomic studies. In this study, HR-MAS NMR spectroscopy is applied to apple tissue to analyze the metabolic profiles of apples grown under 3 different cultivation methods. Golden Delicious apples were grown applying organic (Bio), integrated (IP) and low-input (LI) plant protection strategies. A total of 70 1H HR-MAS NMR spectra were analyzed by means of principle component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA). Apples derived from Bio-production could be well separated from the two other cultivation methods applying both, PCA and PLS-DA. Apples obtained from integrated (IP) and low-input (LI) production discriminated when taking the third PLS-component into account. The identified chemical composition and the compounds responsible for the separation, i.e. the PLS-loadings, are discussed. The results are compared with fruit quality parameters assessed by conventional methods. The present study demonstrates the potential of HR-MAS NMR spectroscopy of fruit tissue as analytical tool for finding markers for specific fruit production conditions like the cultivation method.

Lack of cathelicidin processing in Papillon-Lefèvre syndrome patients reveals essential role of LL-37 in periodontal homeostasis.

BACKGROUND Loss-of-function point mutations in the cathepsin C gene are the underlying genetic event in patients with Papillon-Lefèvre syndrome (PLS). PLS neutrophils lack serine protease activity essential for cathelicidin LL-37 generation from hCAP18 precursor. AIM We hypothesized that a local deficiency of LL-37 in the infected periodontium is mainly responsible for one of the clinical hallmark of PLS: severe periodontitis already in early childhood. METHODS To confirm this effect, we compared the level of neutrophil-derived enzymes and antimicrobial peptides in gingival crevicular fluid (GCF) and saliva from PLS, aggressive and chronic periodontitis patients. RESULTS Although neutrophil numbers in GCF were present at the same level in all periodontitis groups, LL-37 was totally absent in GCF from PLS patients despite the large amounts of its precursor, hCAP18. The absence of LL-37 in PLS patients coincided with the deficiency of both cathepsin C and protease 3 activities. The presence of other neutrophilic anti-microbial peptides in GCF from PLS patients, such as alpha-defensins, were comparable to that found in chronic periodontitis. In PLS microbial analysis revealed a high prevalence of Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans infection. Most strains were susceptible to killing by LL-37. CONCLUSIONS Collectively, these findings imply that the lack of protease 3 activation by dysfunctional cathepsin C in PLS patients leads to the deficit of antimicrobial and immunomodulatory functions of LL-37 in the gingiva, allowing for infection with A. actinomycetemcomitans and the development of severe periodontal disease.

Visible near infra-red (VisNIR) spectroscopy for predicting soil organic carbon in Ethiopia

Over the past few decades, the advantages of the visible-near infra-red (VisNIR) diffuse reflectance spectrometer (DRS) method have enabled prediction of soil organic carbon (SOC). In this study, SOC was predicted using regression models for samples taken from three sites (Gununo, Maybar and Anjeni) in Ethiopia. SOC was characterized in laboratory using conventional wet chemistry and VisNIR-DRS methods. Principal component analysis (PCA), principal component regression (PCR) and partial least square regression (PLS) models were developed using Unscrambler X 10.2. PCA results show that the first two components accounted for a minimum of 96% variation which increased for individual sites and with data treatments. Correlation (r), coefficient of determination (R2) and residual prediction deviation (RPD) were used to rate four models built. PLS model (r, R2, RPD) values for Anjeni were 0.9, 0.9 and 3.6; for Gununo values 0.6, 0.3 and 1.2; for Maybar values 0.6, 0.3 and 0.9, and for the three sites values 0.7, 0.6 and 1.5, respectively. PCR model values (r, R2, RPD) for Anjeni were 0.9, 0.8 and 2.7; for Gununo values 0.5, 0.3 and 1; for Maybar values 0.5, 0.1 and 0.7, and for the three sites values 0.7, 0.5 and 1.2, respectively. Comparison and testing of models shows superior performance of PLS to PCR. Models were rated as very poor (Maybar), poor (Gununo and three sites) and excellent (Anjeni). A robust model, Anjeni, is recommended for prediction of SOC in Ethiopia.

A chrysophyte-based quantitative reconstruction of winter severity from varved lake sediments in NE Poland during the past millennium and its relationship to natural climate variability

Chrysophyte cysts are recognized as powerful proxies of cold-season temperatures. In this paper we use the relationship between chrysophyte assemblages and the number of days below 4 °C (DB4 °C) in the epilimnion of a lake in northern Poland to develop a transfer function and to reconstruct winter severity in Poland for the last millennium. DB4 °C is a climate variable related to the length of the winter. Multivariate ordination techniques were used to study the distribution of chrysophytes from sediment traps of 37 low-land lakes distributed along a variety of environmental and climatic gradients in northern Poland. Of all the environmental variables measured, stepwise variable selection and individual Redundancy analyses (RDA) identified DB4 °C as the most important variable for chrysophytes, explaining a portion of variance independent of variables related to water chemistry (conductivity, chlorides, K, sulfates), which were also important. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate DB4 °C from sedimentary assemblages using partial least square regression (PLS). The two-component model (PLS-2) had a coefficient of determination of View the MathML sourceRcross2 = 0.58, with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on leave-one-out) of 3.41 days. The resulting transfer function was applied to an annually-varved sediment core from Lake Żabińskie, providing a new sub-decadal quantitative reconstruction of DB4 °C with high chronological accuracy for the period AD 1000–2010. During Medieval Times (AD 1180–1440) winters were generally shorter (warmer) except for a decade with very long and severe winters around AD 1260–1270 (following the AD 1258 volcanic eruption). The 16th and 17th centuries and the beginning of the 19th century experienced very long severe winters. Comparison with other European cold-season reconstructions and atmospheric indices for this region indicates that large parts of the winter variability (reconstructed DB4 °C) is due to the interplay between the oscillations of the zonal flow controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the influence of continental anticyclonic systems (Siberian High, East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern). Differences with other European records are attributed to geographic climatological differences between Poland and Western Europe (Low Countries, Alps). Striking correspondence between the combined volcanic and solar forcing and the DB4 °C reconstruction prior to the 20th century suggests that winter climate in Poland responds mostly to natural forced variability (volcanic and solar) and the influence of unforced variability is low.