946 resultados para Over-dispersion, Crash prediction, Bayesian method, Intersection safety


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A total of 2400 samples of commercial Brazilian C gasoline were collected over a 6-month period from different gas stations in the São Paulo state, Brazil, and analysed with respect to 12 physicochemical parameters according to regulation 309 of the Brazilian Government Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANP). The percentages (v/v) of hydrocarbons (olefins, aromatics and saturated) were also determined. Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) was employed to select 150 representative samples that exhibited least similarity on the basis of their physicochemical parameters and hydrocarbon compositions. The chromatographic profiles of the selected samples were measured by gas chromatography with flame ionisation detection and analysed using soft independent modelling of class analogy (SIMCA) method in order to create a classification scheme to identify conform gasolines according to ANP 309 regulation. Following the optimisation of the SIMCA algorithm, it was possible to classify correctly 96% of the commercial gasoline samples present in the training set of 100. In order to check the quality of the model, an external group of 50 gasoline samples (the prediction set) were analysed and the developed SIMCA model classified 94% of these correctly. The developed chemometric method is recommended for screening commercial gasoline quality and detection of potential adulteration. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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The active ingredients used in the formulation of toxic baits for leaf-cutting ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) should possess a delayed action defined as an insecticidal activity whereby worker mortality is ≤15% at 24 hours and ≥90% at 21 days. Serious shortcomings have occurred in the search for new active ingredients, such as the initial selection of fenoxycarb, copper oxychloride and diflubenzuron, compounds considered very promising but whose inefficiency was verified only later, indicating methodological problems. In view of this situation, we developed a classification method for insecticidal activity over time using workers of the leaf-cutting ant Atta sexdens rubropilosa Forel. The insecticides used were fipronil, sulfluramid GX071HB and sulfluramid GX439, vehicled in an attractive pasty formulation prepared based on citrus pulp. The results obtained were consistent from a toxicological viewpoint and agreed with the literature in terms of the control of colonies. Sulfluramids were found to possess a delayed action at a broad range of concentrations, in agreement with the fact that these substances are highly effective in the control of all leaf-cutting ant species. The smaller range of concentrations of fipronil with delayed action is probably related to its lower efficacy for species more difficult to control such as Atta capiguara (Forti et al. 2003). We discuss the importance of relating behavioral particularities to the specific feeding habits of leaf-cutting ants, with methodological adequacy of the assessment of insecticides aimed at toxic baits.

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This paper presents an investigation concerning the use of fundamental approximation analysis and a new lamp model for the prediction of the voltage over electrodes' filaments during dimming operation. The lamp model employed in this paper is based on equivalent resistances, which represent the electrodes' filaments and the gas column of a F32T8 lamp. Experimental results are presented in this paper, indicating the validity of the proposed analysis and confirming its potential to serve as an effective tool for the design of dimming electronic ballasts. © 2005 IEEE.

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Purpose: To assess the safety and efficacy of transitioning patients whose intraocular pressure (IOP) had been insufficiently controlled on prostaglandin analog (PGA) monotherapy to treatment with travoprost 0.004%/timolol 0.5% fixed combination with benzalkonium chloride (TTFC). Methods: This prospective, multicenter, open-label, historical controlled, single-arm study transitioned patients who had primary open-angle glaucoma, pigment dispersion glaucoma, or ocular hypertension and who required further IOP reduction from PGA monotherapy to oncedaily treatment with TTFC for 12 weeks. IOP and safety (adverse events, corrected distance visual acuity, and slit-lamp biomicroscopy) were assessed at baseline, week 4, and week 12. A solicited ocular symptom survey was administered at baseline and at week 12. Patients and investigators reported their medication preference at week 12. Results: Of 65 patients enrolled, 43 had received prior travoprost therapy and 22 had received prior nontravoprost therapy (n = 18, bimatoprost; n = 4, latanoprost). In the total population, mean IOP was significantly reduced from baseline (P = 0.000009), showing a 16.8% reduction after 12 weeks of TTFC therapy. In the study subgroups, mean IOP was significantly reduced from baseline to week 12 (P = 0.0001) in the prior travoprost cohort (19.0% reduction) and in the prior nontravoprost cohort (13.1% reduction). Seven mild, ocular, treatment-related adverse events were reported. Of the ten ocular symptom questions, eight had numerically lower percentages with TTFC compared with prior PGA monotherapy and two had numerically higher percentages with TTFC (dry eye symptoms and ocular stinging/burning). At week 12, TTFC was preferred over prior therapy for 84.2% of patients (48 of 57) by the patients themselves, and for 94.7% of patients (54 of 57) by their physicians. Conclusion: When TTFC replaced PGA monotherapy in patients whose IOP had been uncontrolled, the outcome was a significant reduction in IOP and an acceptable safety and tolerability profile. Most patients and investigators preferred TTFC to prior PGA monotherapy. © 2012 Costa et al, publisher and licensee Dove Medical Press Ltd.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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The importance of this study is based on the need to obtain simple and efficient in vitro models to predict the in vivo toxicity of cosmetics, aiming not to use animals as experimental model. Here, we proposed the use of HepG2 cells, which are widely applied to simulate the hepatic function of the human organism in vitro. This cell line was chose since recent studies have shown that the liver is potentially the most frequently targeted organ by cosmetic ingredients, and beyond that, considering the widely application of in vitro assays to test the cutaneous permeation of cosmetic products, including the assays applying modified Franz cells, this technique becomes indispensable. Three different cosmetic active substances were used, and the toxicity to HepG2 cells was assessed by the MTT method. The treatment with hyaluronic acid showed no toxicity to HepG2 cells. Treating the cells with P. guajava L. extract were verified that increasing the amount of the extract in the media, the cellular viability decreased, and finally, the treatment of alpha-lipoic acid showed a cytoprotective effect in relation to the treatment with propylene glycol. The study demonstrated the suitability in using HepG2 cells to assess the safety of cosmetic active substances, helping in the prediction of if the substance could be hepatotoxic if could reach the bloodstream

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Animal by-product meals have large variability in crude protein (CP) content and digestibility. In vivo digestibility procedures are precise but laborious, and in vitro methods could be an alternative to evaluate and classify these ingredients. The present study reports prediction equations to estimate the CP digestibility of meat and bone meal (MBM) and poultry by-product meal (PM) using the protein solubility in pepsin method (PSP). Total tract CP digestibility of eight MBM and eight PM samples was determined in dogs by the substitution method. A basal diet was formulated for dog maintenance, and sixteen diets were produced by mixing 70 % of the basal diet and 30 % of each tested meal. Six dogs per diet were used to determine ingredient digestibility. In addition, PSP of the MBM and PM samples was determined using three pepsin concentrations: 0·02, 0·002 and 0·0002 %. The CP content of MBM and PM ranged from 39 to 46 % and 57 to 69 %, respectively, and their mean CP digestibility by dogs was 76 (2·4) and 85 (2·6) %, respectively. The pepsin concentration with higher Pearson correlation coefficients with the in vivo results were 0·0002 % for MBM (r 0·380; P = 0·008) and 0·02 % for PM (r 0·482; P = 0·005). The relationship between the in vivo and in vitro results was better explained by the following equations: CP digestibility of MBM = 61·7 + 0·2644 × PSP at 0·0002 % (P = 0·008; R (2) 0·126); and CP digestibility of PM = 54·1 + 0·3833 × PSP at 0·02 % (P = 0·005; R (2) 0·216). Although significant, the coefficients of determination were low, indicating that the models were weak and need to be used with caution.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Rapid in vitro methods for measuring digestibility may be useful in analysing aqua feeds if the extent and limits of their application are clearly defined. The pH-stat protein digestibility routine with shrimp hepatopancreas enzymes was previously related to apparent protein digestibility with juvenile Litopenaeus vannamei fed diets containing different protein ingredients. The potential of the method to predict culture performance of shrimp fed six commercial feeds (T3, T4, T5, T6, T7 and T8) with 350 g kg(-1) declared crude-protein content was assessed. The consistency of results obtained using hepatopancreas enzyme extracts from either pond or clear water-raised shrimp was further verified in terms of reproducibility and possible diet history effects upon in vitro outputs. Shrimps were previously acclimated and then maintained over 56 days (initial mean weight 3.28 g) on each diet in 500-L tanks at 114 ind m(-2), clear water closed system with continuous renewal and mechanical filtering (50 mu m), with four replicates per treatment. Feeds were offered four times daily (six days a week) delivered in trays at feeding rates ranging from 4.0% to 7.0% of stocked shrimp biomass. Feed was accessible to shrimp 4 h daily for 1-h feeding period after which uneaten feed was recovered. Growth and survival were determined every 14 days from a sample of 16 individuals per tank. Water quality was monitored daily (pH, temperature and salinity) and managed by water back flushing filter cleaning every 7-10 days. Feeds were analysed for crude protein, gross energy, amino acids and pepsin digestibility. In vitro pH-stat degree of protein hydrolysis (DH%) was determined for each feed using hepatopancreas enzyme extracts from experimental (clear water) or pond-raised shrimp. Feeds resulted in significant differences in shrimp performance (P < 0.05) as seen by the differences in growth rates (0.56-0.98 g week(-1)), final weight and feed conversion ratio (FCR). Shrimp performance and in vitro DH% with pond-raised shrimp enzymes showed significant correlation (P < 0.05) for yield (R-2 = 0.72), growth rates (R-2 = 0.72-0.80) and FCR (R-2 = -0.67). Other feed attributes (protein : energy ratio, amino acids, true protein, non-protein nitrogen contents and in vitro pepsin digestibility) showed none or limited correlation with shrimp culture performance. Additional correlations were found between growth rates and methionine (R-2 = 0.73), FCR and histidine (R-2 = -0.60), and DH% and methionine or methionine+cystine feed contents (R-2 = 0.67-0.92). pH-stat assays with shrimp enzymes generated reproducible DH% results with either pond (CV <= 6.5%) or clear water (CV <= 8.5%) hepatopancreas enzyme sources. Moreover, correlations between shrimp growth rates and feed DH% were significant regardless of the enzyme origin (pond or clear water-raised shrimp) and showed consistent R-2 values. Results suggest the feasibility of using standardized hepatopancreas enzyme extracts for in vitro protein digestibility.

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A set of predictor variables is said to be intrinsically multivariate predictive (IMP) for a target variable if all properly contained subsets of the predictor set are poor predictors of the. target but the full set predicts the target with great accuracy. In a previous article, the main properties of IMP Boolean variables have been analytically described, including the introduction of the IMP score, a metric based on the coefficient of determination (CoD) as a measure of predictiveness with respect to the target variable. It was shown that the IMP score depends on four main properties: logic of connection, predictive power, covariance between predictors and marginal predictor probabilities (biases). This paper extends that work to a broader context, in an attempt to characterize properties of discrete Bayesian networks that contribute to the presence of variables (network nodes) with high IMP scores. We have found that there is a relationship between the IMP score of a node and its territory size, i.e., its position along a pathway with one source: nodes far from the source display larger IMP scores than those closer to the source, and longer pathways display larger maximum IMP scores. This appears to be a consequence of the fact that nodes with small territory have larger probability of having highly covariate predictors, which leads to smaller IMP scores. In addition, a larger number of XOR and NXOR predictive logic relationships has positive influence over the maximum IMP score found in the pathway. This work presents analytical results based on a simple structure network and an analysis involving random networks constructed by computational simulations. Finally, results from a real Bayesian network application are provided. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Aerosol particles are likely important contributors to our future climate. Further, during recent years, effects on human health arising from emissions of particulate material have gained increasing attention. In order to quantify the effect of aerosols on both climate and human health we need to better quantify the interplay between sources and sinks of aerosol particle number and mass on large spatial scales. So far long-term, regional observations of aerosol properties have been scarce, but argued necessary in order to bring the knowledge of regional and global distribution of aerosols further. In this context, regional studies of aerosol properties and aerosol dynamics are truly important areas of investigation. This thesis is devoted to investigations of aerosol number size distribution observations performed through the course of one year encompassing observational data from five stations covering an area from southern parts of Sweden up to northern parts of Finland. This thesis tries to give a description of aerosol size distribution dynamics from both a quantitative and qualitative point of view. The thesis focuses on properties and changes in aerosol size distribution as a function of location, season, source area, transport pathways and links to various meteorological conditions. The investigations performed in this thesis show that although the basic behaviour of the aerosol number size distribution in terms of seasonal and diurnal characteristics is similar at all stations in the measurement network, the aerosol over the Nordic countries is characterised by a typically sharp gradient in aerosol number and mass. This gradient is argued to derive from geographical locations of the stations in relation to the dominant sources and transport pathways. It is clear that the source area significantly determine the aerosol size distribution properties, but it is obvious that transport condition in terms of frequency of precipitation and cloudiness in some cases even more strongly control the evolution of the number size distribution. Aerosol dynamic processes under clear sky transport are however likewise argued to be highly important. Southerly transport of marine air and northerly transport of air from continental sources is studied in detail under clear sky conditions by performing a pseudo-Lagrangian box model evaluation of the two type cases. Results from both modelling and observations suggest that nucleation events contribute to integral number increase during southerly transport of comparably clean marine air, while number depletion dominates the evolution of the size distribution during northerly transport. This difference is largely explained by different concentration of pre-existing aerosol surface associated with the two type cases. Mass is found to be accumulated in many of the individual transport cases studied. This mass increase was argued to be controlled by emission of organic compounds from the boreal forest. This puts the boreal forest in a central position for estimates of aerosol forcing on a regional scale.

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The quality of temperature and humidity retrievals from the infrared SEVIRI sensors on the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites is assessed by means of a one dimensional variational algorithm. The study is performed with the aim of improving the spatial and temporal resolution of available observations to feed analysis systems designed for high resolution regional scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The non-hydrostatic forecast model COSMO (COnsortium for Small scale MOdelling) in the ARPA-SIM operational configuration is used to provide background fields. Only clear sky observations over sea are processed. An optimised 1D–VAR set-up comprising of the two water vapour and the three window channels is selected. It maximises the reduction of errors in the model backgrounds while ensuring ease of operational implementation through accurate bias correction procedures and correct radiative transfer simulations. The 1D–VAR retrieval quality is firstly quantified in relative terms employing statistics to estimate the reduction in the background model errors. Additionally the absolute retrieval accuracy is assessed comparing the analysis with independent radiosonde and satellite observations. The inclusion of satellite data brings a substantial reduction in the warm and dry biases present in the forecast model. Moreover it is shown that the retrieval profiles generated by the 1D–VAR are well correlated with the radiosonde measurements. Subsequently the 1D–VAR technique is applied to two three–dimensional case–studies: a false alarm case–study occurred in Friuli–Venezia–Giulia on the 8th of July 2004 and a heavy precipitation case occurred in Emilia–Romagna region between 9th and 12th of April 2005. The impact of satellite data for these two events is evaluated in terms of increments in the integrated water vapour and saturation water vapour over the column, in the 2 meters temperature and specific humidity and in the surface temperature. To improve the 1D–VAR technique a method to calculate flow–dependent model error covariance matrices is also assessed. The approach employs members from an ensemble forecast system generated by perturbing physical parameterisation schemes inside the model. The improved set–up applied to the case of 8th of July 2004 shows a substantial neutral impact.