Structured professional judgement approach to risk assessment: generalisability across patient groups for the prediction of adverse outcomes in secure mental health care

This is a redacted version of the the final thesis. Copyright material has been removed to comply with UK Copyright Law.

Antiplatelet therapy and clinical outcomes in cardiovascular diseases

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is a leading cause of death in the world. Despite effective treatment regimens for ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and ischaemic stroke, mortality and recurrence rates remain high. Antiplatelet therapy is on effective treatment and reduces the risk of recurrent heart attack and stroke. Nevertheless, there are patients who stopped or interrupted their antiplatelet therapy for certain reasons or some patients may be resistant or poor responders to antiplatelet therapy. Furthermore, there is evidence of rebound effect in platelet activity after antiplatelet cessation and this may associate with increased risk of cardiovascular event. This thesis is divided into five main chapters (chapters 3 to 7) which attempt to provide data to help resolve the uncertainty. Chapter 1 highlights the background of cardiovascular diseases and the global burden of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. The metabolism of platelets, antiplatelet therapy and current antiplatelet therapy guidelines are described, followed by discussion of the risk of cardiovascular event and changes in antiplatelet therapy. Chapter 2 describes the data source from Virtual International Stroke Trial Archive (VISTA) and National Health Service Greater Glasgow and Clyde (NHSGGC) Safe Haven, followed by definition of outcome measures. In chapter 3, Virtual International Stroke Trial Archive (VISTA) data was examined to test whether continue with the same antiplatelet therapy or changing to a new antiplatelet regimen reduces the risk of subsequent events in patients who experience a stroke whilst taking antiplatelet therapy. The findings indicate that subjects who switch to a new antiplatelet regimen after stroke did not have a lower early recurrence rate than subjects who continued with the same antiplatelet therapy. Observations on bleeding complications were similar in both groups. However, changing antiplatelet regimen after stroke was associated with more favourable functional outcome across a full scale modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 90 days. In chapter 4, association between early or later initiation of antiplatelet with a recurrent ischaemic stroke and bleeding complications was assessed using VISTA data. The findings indicate that there was no association between a recurrent ischaemic stroke and timing of initiation of antiplatelet drug after stroke. However, early initiation was associated with increased risk of bleeding. In terms of functional outcomes, this study demonstrated that the mid-time and late initiation of antiplatelet therapy after acute stroke are associated with better functional outcomes compared with early initiation. In chapter 5, a nested case-control study was performed to explore the rate of antiplatelet cessation and interruption in a sample of patients with recent ischaemic stroke and to assess the risk of cardiovascular events associated with cessation and interruption of antiplatelet. It was found that there was no increased risk of cardiovascular event among patients who had early cessation or interrupted/stopped antiplatelet therapy within 90 days following acute ischaemic stroke. In chapter 6, the incidence and predictors of cardiovascular events after DAPT cessation were evaluated. The incidence of cardiovascular event while taking DAPT and following discontinuation of DAPT was 15.7% and 16.7% respectively. This study found that increasing age was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular event, whereas, revascularization-treated patients and longer duration of DAPT, were each associated with a decreased risk. The duration of DAPT six months and less was associated a significantly higher risk for cardiovascular event. In chapter 7, an untargeted metabolomics analysis was performed while on DAPT (aspirin plus ticagrelor) and once they stopped ticagrelor to identify metabolite changes associated with cardiovascular events after stopping DAPT. Ten ACS patients were recruited in this study and data were analysed for seven patients. Three hundred eleven putative metabolites were identified. This study found 16 putative metabolites significantly altered following ticagrelor cessation. Of these, seven metabolites were from lipid pathway and down-regulated some up to 3-fold. On the other hand, adenosine, from nucleotide metabolism was upregulated up to 2.6-fold. It concluded that there are changes in numerous pathways following DAPT discontinuation and whether these changes differ in patients who have cardiovascular event after stopping DAPT warrant further investigation. In chapter 8, a summary of the findings of this thesis are presented as well as the future directions of research in this area.

Strike outcomes and wage settlements in Spain

This paper analyzes collective bargaining using Spanish firm level data. Centralto the analysis are the joint determination of wage and strike outcomes in adynamic framework and the possibility of segregate wage equation for strike andnon-strike outcomes. Conditional to strikes taking place, we confirm a negativerelationship between strike duration and wage changes in a dynamic context.Furthermore, we find selection in wage equations induced by the strike outcome.In this sense, the possibility of wage determination processes being differentin strike and non-strike samples is not rejected by the data. In particular,wage dynamics are of opposite sing in both strike and non-strike equations.Finally, we find evidence of a 0.33 percentage points wage change strike premium.

Short-term clinical outcomes among patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation in Switzerland: the Swiss TAVI registry.

AIMS: To evaluate short-term clinical outcomes following transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) using CE-mark approved devices in Switzerland. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Swiss TAVI registry is a national, prospective, multicentre, monitored cohort study evaluating clinical outcomes in consecutive patients undergoing TAVI at cardiovascular centres in Switzerland. From February 2011 to March 2013, a total of 697 patients underwent TAVI for native aortic valve stenosis (98.1%), degenerative aortic bioprosthesis (1.6%) or severe aortic regurgitation (0.3%). Patients were elderly (82.4±6 years), 52% were females, and the majority highly symptomatic (73.1% NYHA III/IV). Patients with severe aortic stenosis (mean gradient 44.8±17 mmHg, aortic valve area 0.7±0.3 cm²) were either deemed inoperable or at high risk for conventional surgery (STS 8.2%±7). The transfemoral access was the most frequently used (79.1%), followed by transapical (18.1%), direct aortic (1.7%) and subclavian access (1.1%). At 30 days, rates of all-cause mortality, cerebrovascular events and myocardial infarction were 4.8%, 3.3% and 0.4%, respectively. The most frequently observed adverse events were access-related complications (11.8%), permanent pacemaker implantation (20.5%) and bleeding complications (16.6%). The Swiss TAVI registry is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01368250). CONCLUSIONS: The Swiss TAVI registry is a national cohort study evaluating consecutive TAVI procedures in Switzerland. This first outcome report provides favourable short-term clinical outcomes in unselected TAVI patients.

False normal Lung Clearance Index in infants with cystic fibrosis due to software algorithms.

BACKGROUND: Lung clearance index (LCI), a marker of ventilation inhomogeneity, is elevated early in children with cystic fibrosis (CF). However, in infants with CF, LCI values are found to be normal, although structural lung abnormalities are often detectable. We hypothesized that this discrepancy is due to inadequate algorithms of the available software package. AIM: Our aim was to challenge the validity of these software algorithms. METHODS: We compared multiple breath washout (MBW) results of current software algorithms (automatic modus) to refined algorithms (manual modus) in 17 asymptomatic infants with CF, and 24 matched healthy term-born infants. The main difference between these two analysis methods lies in the calculation of the molar mass differences that the system uses to define the completion of the measurement. RESULTS: In infants with CF the refined manual modus revealed clearly elevated LCI above 9 in 8 out of 35 measurements (23%), all showing LCI values below 8.3 using the automatic modus (paired t-test comparing the means, P < 0.001). Healthy infants showed normal LCI values using both analysis methods (n = 47, paired t-test, P = 0.79). The most relevant reason for false normal LCI values in infants with CF using the automatic modus was the incorrect recognition of the end-of-test too early during the washout. CONCLUSION: We recommend the use of the manual modus for the analysis of MBW outcomes in infants in order to obtain more accurate results. This will allow appropriate use of infant lung function results for clinical and scientific purposes. Pediatr Pulmonol. 2015; 50:970-977. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Clinical consequences of switching from olanzapine to risperidone and vice versa in outpatients with schizophrenia: 36-month results from the worldwide schizophrenia outpatients health outcomes (W-SOHO) study

BACKGROUND: With many atypical antipsychotics now available in the market, it has become a common clinical practice to switch between atypical agents as a means of achieving the best clinical outcomes. This study aimed to examine the impact of switching from olanzapine to risperidone and vice versa on clinical status and tolerability outcomes in outpatients with schizophrenia in a naturalistic setting. METHODS: W-SOHO was a 3-year observational study that involved over 17,000 outpatients with schizophrenia from 37 countries worldwide. The present post hoc study focused on the subgroup of patients who started taking olanzapine at baseline and subsequently made the first switch to risperidone (n=162) and vice versa (n=136). Clinical status was assessed at the visit when the first switch was made (i.e. before switching) and after switching. Logistic regression models examined the impact of medication switch on tolerability outcomes, and linear regression models assessed the association between medication switch and change in the Clinical Global Impression-Schizophrenia (CGI-SCH) overall score or change in weight. In addition, Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox-proportional hazards models were used to analyze the time to medication switch as well as time to relapse (symptom worsening as assessed by the CGI-SCH scale or hospitalization). RESULTS: 48% and 39% of patients switching to olanzapine and risperidone, respectively, remained on the medication without further switches (p=0.019). Patients switching to olanzapine were significantly less likely to experience relapse (hazard ratio: 3.43, 95% CI: 1.43, 8.26), extrapyramidal symptoms (odds ratio [OR]: 4.02, 95% CI: 1.49, 10.89) and amenorrhea/galactorrhea (OR: 8.99, 95% CI: 2.30, 35.13). No significant difference in weight change was, however, found between the two groups. While the CGI-SCH overall score improved in both groups after switching, there was a significantly greater change in those who switched to olanzapine (difference of 0.29 points, p=0.013). CONCLUSION: Our study showed that patients who switched from risperidone to olanzapine were likely to experience a more favorable treatment course than those who switched from olanzapine to risperidone. Given the nature of observational study design and small sample size, additional studies are warranted.

Use of nutritional complete supplements in older adults with dementia: systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical outcomes

Background & Aims: Malnutrition is prevalent in people diagnosed with dementia however ensuring adequate oral intake within this group is often problematic. It is important to determine whether providing nutritionally complete oral nutritional supplements (ONS) drinks is an effective way of improving clinical outcomes for older people with dementia. This paper systematically reviewed clinical, wellbeing and nutritional outcomes in people with long-term cognitive impairment. Methods: The CINAHL, Medline and EMBASE databases were searched from their inception until January 2012. Reference lists of the included papers, foreign language papers and review articles obtained were manually searched. Results: Twelve articles were included in the review containing 1076 people in the supplement groups (intervention) and 748 people in the control groups. Meta-analysis shows there was a significant improvement in weight (p=<0.0001), Body Mass Index (BMI) (p=<0.0001) and cognition at 6.5+/-3.9 month follow up (p=0.002) when supplements were given compared to the control group. Conclusions: Providing ONS drinks has a positive effect on weight gain and cognition at follow up in older people with dementia. Additional research is required in both comparing nutritional supplements to vitamin/mineral tablets and high protein/calorie shots and clinical outcomes relevant to hospitalised people with dementia.

The panorama and outcomes of reported pregnancies within a well defined population in rural Vietnam 1999-2004

Background Pregnancy outcomes in the general population are important public health indicators. Purpose The overall aim of this study was to investigate the outcomes of reported pregnancies within a well-defined population, to identify risk groups for adverse pregnancy outcomes, and to suggest preventive measures. Method A prospective population-based cohort study of pregnant women in Bavi district, Vietnam between 1 January 1999 and 30 June 2004. Results Pregnancy outcome was reported for 5,259 cases; 4,152 (79%) resulted in a live birth, 67 (1.3%) in a stillbirth, 733 (14%) in an induced abortion, and 282 (5.4%) in a spontaneous abortion. There was an increased risk of home delivery for women from ethnic minorities (OR?=?1.85; 95%CI?=?1.06–3.24) or with less than 6 years of schooling (OR?=?7.36; 95%CI?=?3.54–15.30). The risk of stillbirth was increased for ethnic minorities (OR?=?6.34; 95%CI?=?1.33–30.29) and women delivering at home (OR?=?6.81; 95%CI?=?2.40–19.30). The risk of induced abortion increased with maternal age. Conclusion Our findings emphasize the public health significance of access to adequate family planning, counselling, and maternal health care for all women. Policies should specifically target women from high-risk groups.

Visualization of spirography-based objective measures in Parkinson's disease

Objective: To investigate whether advanced visualizations of spirography-based objective measures are useful in differentiating drug-related motor dysfunctions between Off and dyskinesia in Parkinson’s disease (PD). Background: During the course of a 3 year longitudinal clinical study, in total 65 patients (43 males and 22 females with mean age of 65) with advanced PD and 10 healthy elderly (HE) subjects (5 males and 5 females with mean age of 61) were assessed. Both patients and HE subjects performed repeated and time-stamped assessments of their objective health indicators using a test battery implemented on a telemetry touch screen handheld computer, in their home environment settings. Among other tasks, the subjects were asked to trace a pre-drawn Archimedes spiral using the dominant hand and repeat the test three times per test occasion. Methods: A web-based framework was developed to enable a visual exploration of relevant spirography-based kinematic features by clinicians so they can in turn evaluate the motor states of the patients i.e. Off and dyskinesia. The system uses different visualization techniques such as time series plots, animation, and interaction and organizes them into different views to aid clinicians in measuring spatial and time-dependent irregularities that could be associated with the motor states. Along with the animation view, the system displays two time series plots for representing drawing speed (blue line) and displacement from ideal trajectory (orange line). The views are coordinated and linked i.e. user interactions in one of the views will be reflected in other views. For instance, when the user points in one of the pixels in the spiral view, the circle size of the underlying pixel increases and a vertical line appears in the time series views to depict the corresponding position. In addition, in order to enable clinicians to observe erratic movements more clearly and thus improve the detection of irregularities, the system displays a color-map which gives an idea of the longevity of the spirography task. Figure 2 shows single randomly selected spirals drawn by a: A) patient who experienced dyskinesias, B) HE subject, and C) patient in Off state. Results: According to a domain expert (DN), the spirals drawn in the Off and dyskinesia motor states are characterized by different spatial and time features. For instance, the spiral shown in Fig. 2A was drawn by a patient who showed symptoms of dyskinesia; the drawing speed was relatively high (cf. blue-colored time series plot and the short timestamp scale in the x axis) and the spatial displacement was high (cf. orange-colored time series plot) associated with smooth deviations as a result of uncontrollable movements. The patient also exhibited low amount of hesitation which could be reflected both in the animation of the spiral as well as time series plots. In contrast, the patient who was in the Off state exhibited different kinematic features, as shown in Fig. 2C. In the case of spirals drawn by a HE subject, there was a great precision during the drawing process as well as unchanging levels of time-dependent features over the test trial, as seen in Fig. 2B. Conclusions: Visualizing spirography-based objective measures enables identification of trends and patterns of drug-related motor dysfunctions at the patient’s individual level. Dynamic access of visualized motor tests may be useful during the evaluation of drug-related complications such as under- and over-medications, providing decision support to clinicians during evaluation of treatment effects as well as improve the quality of life of patients and their caregivers. In future, we plan to evaluate the proposed approach by assessing within- and between-clinician variability in ratings in order to determine its actual usefulness and then use these ratings as target outcomes in supervised machine learning, similarly as it was previously done in the study performed by Memedi et al. (2013).

Maternal and perinatal outcomes of first pregnancy after chemotherapy for gestational trophoblastic neoplasia in Brazilian women

Objective. To evaluate maternal and perinatal outcomes of first pregnancy after chemotherapy for gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) in Brazilian patients.Methods. This study included 252 subsequent pregnancies after chemotherapy for GTN treated between 1960-2005. Correlations of maternal and perinatal outcomes with chemotherapy regimen (single or multiagent) and the time interval between chemotherapy completion and first subsequent pregnancy were investigated.Results. There was a significant increase in adverse maternal outcomes in women who conceived <6 months than 6-12 months (76.2% and 19.6%; p<0.0001; OR=13.12; CI 95%=3.87-44.40) and >12 months (76.2% and 21.7%; P<0.0001; OR=11.56; CI 95%=3.98-33.55) after chemotherapy. Spontaneous abortion frequency was higher <6 months (71.4%) than 6-12 months (17.6%; p<0.0001: OR=11.66; CI 95%=3.55-38.22) and >12 months (9.4%; p<0.0001: OR=23.97: CI 95%=8.21-69.91) after chemotherapy. There was no difference in adverse perinatal outcomes (stillbirth, fetal malformation, and preterm birth) related to the interval after chemotherapy and Subsequent pregnancy. The overall occurrence of adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes did not significantly differ between patients on single or multiagent regimens.Conclusion. Adverse maternal outcomes and spontaneous abortion were more frequent among patients who conceived within 6 months of chemotherapy completion. In these cases, careful prenatal monitoring and hCG level measurement 6 weeks after the completion of any new pregnancy are recommended. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Twelve-month clinical outcomes after coronary stenting with the Genous Bio-engineered R Stent in patients with a bifurcation lesion: from the e-HEALING (Healthy Endothelial Accelerated Lining Inhibits Neointimal Growth) registry

Background The e-Healthy Endothelial Accelerated Lining Inhibits Neointimal Growth (e-HEALING) registry was designed to capture clinical data on the use of the endothelial progenitor cell capture stent (ECS) in routine clinical practice. In this analysis, we investigated the 12-month clinical outcomes in patients treated with an ECS for a bifurcation lesion. Methods The worldwide, prospective, nonrandomized e-HEALING registry aimed to enrol 5000 patients treated for coronary artery disease with one or more ECS between October 2005 and October 2007. Clinical follow-up was obtained at 1, 6, and 12 months. The primary endpoint was target vessel failure (TVF), defined as the composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction, and target vessel revascularization at 12 months. Results A total of 573 patients were treated for at least one bifurcation lesion and were assessed in the current analysis. Baseline characteristics showed a median age of 65 years; 21% were diabetic patients and 36% had unstable angina. A total of 63% of the bifurcation lesions were located in the left artery descending and the mean stent length was 20.7 +/- 12.6 mm. At 12 months, TVF was 12.7% and target lesion revascularization was 7.5%. Definite or probable stent thrombosis occurred in 1.7% of the patients. Moreover, one or more stents per lesion [hazard ratio (HR): 2.79, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.60-4.86, P < 0.001], predilatation (HR: 0.39, 95% CI: 0.17-0.87, P = 0.023), and lesions located in the right coronary artery (HR: 4.56, 95% CI: 1.07-19.5, P = 0.041) were independent predictors of TVF. Conclusion In the e-HEALING registry, coronary bifurcation stenting with the ECS results in favorable clinical outcomes and low incidences of repeat revascularization and stent thrombosis. Coron Artery Dis 23:201-207 (C) 2012 Wolters Kluwer Health vertical bar Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Infrared (810 nm) Low-Level Laser Therapy in Experimental Model of Strain-Induced Skeletal Muscle Injury in Rats: Effects on Functional Outcomes

Muscle strains are among the most prevalent causes for athletes absence from sport activities. Low-level laser therapy (LLLT) has recently emerged as a potential contender to nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in muscle strain treatment. In this work we investigated effects of LLLT and diclofenac on functional outcomes in the acute stage after muscle strain injury in rats. Muscle strain was induced by overloading the tibialis anterior muscle of rats during anesthesia. The injured groups received either no treatment, or a single treatment with diclofenac 30 min prior to injury, or LLLT (810 nm, 100 mW) with doses of 1, 3, 6 or 9 J, at 1 h after injury. Functional outcome measures included a walking index and assessment of electrically induced muscle performance. All treatments (except 9 J LLLT) significantly improved the walking index 12 h postinjury compared with the untreated group. The 3 J group also showed a significantly better walking index than the drug group. All treatments significantly improved muscle performance at 6 and 12 h. LLLT dose of 3 J was as effective as the pharmacological agent in improving functional outcomes in the early phase after a muscle strain injury in rats.

Judet quadricepsplasty in the treatment of posttraumatic knee rigidity: Long-term outcomes of 45 cases

BACKGROUND: Posttraumatic knee stiffness is a very debilitating condition. Judet's quadricepsplasty technique has been used for more than 50 years. However, few reports of quadricepsplasty results exist in the literature. METHODS: We report the results of 45 cases of posttraumatic arthrofibrosis of the knee treated with Judet's quadricepsplasty. The results of the procedure were analyzed by measuring the degrees of flexion of the operated knees at different time points (before, immediately after, and late postoperatively). RESULTS: The degree of flexion increased from 33.6 degrees (range, 5-80 degrees) preoperatively to 105 degrees (range, 45-160 degrees) immediately after surgery, followed by a slight fall in the range of motion (ROM) in the late postoperative period, which reached an average of 84.8 degrees. There was no significant correlation between knee strength and the patient's gender, but there was a slight trend of lower strength with age. Although Judet's quadricepsplasty technique dates from more than 50 years ago, it still provides good outcomes in the treatment of rigid knees of various etiologies. In general, all cases showed the same pattern of a small decrease in the ROM in the late postoperative period. CONCLUSION: Judet's quadricepsplasty can increase the ROM of rigid knees. The ROM obtained with the surgery persists long term. (J Trauma. 2012; 72: E77-E80. Copyright (C) 2012 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins)

Pregnancy and delivery outcomes of HIV infected women in Switzerland 2003-2008

Rates of vertical HIV transmission between mother and child are low, allowing many HIV positive women to have children with near impunity. In this study, data from the Swiss Mother and Child HIV Cohort Study were used to describe maternal characteristics and their association with pregnancy outcomes in HIV positive women.

Outcomes of antiretroviral treatment programs in rural Southern Africa

Data on outcomes of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs in rural sub-Saharan African are scarce. We describe early losses and long-term outcomes in 6 rural programs in Southern Africa with limited access to viral load monitoring and second-line ART.