Contrasting tree-ring data with fire record in a pine-dominated landscape in the Komi Republic (Eastern European Russia) : recovering a common climate signal

Abstract

Petrology, geochemistry and geodynamic implications of Jurassic island arc magmatism as revealed by mafic volcanic rocks in the Mesozoic low-grade sequence, eastern Rhodope, Bulgaria

In the eastern Bulgarian Rhodope, mafic extrusive rocks and underlying greenschists are found in the Mesozoic low-grade unit, which represents the northern extension of similar sequences including the Evros ophiolites in Thrace (Greece). Both rock types define a suite of low-Ti tholeiitic basalts to transitional boninitic basaltic andesites and andesites and associated metapyroclastites (greenschists), intruded at its base by diorite dikes of a boninitic affinity. Mafic lavas and greenschists display large ion lithophile element (LILE) enrichment relative to high-field strength elements (HFSE), flat REE patterns of a slight light REE depletion, a strong island arc tholeiite (IAT) and weak MORB-like signature. All these rocks are characterized by negative Nb anomalies ascribed to arc lavas. They have positive epsilon Nd(i) values in the range of +4.87 to +6.09, approaching the lower limit of MORB-like source, and relatively high ((207)Pb/(204)Pb)(i) (15.57-15.663) at low ((206)Pb/(204)Pb)(i) (18.13-18.54) ratios. The Nd isotopic compositions coupled with trace element data imply a dominantly depleted MORB-like mantle source and a contribution of subduction modified LILE-enriched component derived from the mantle wedge. The diorite dike has a low eNdi value of -2.61 and is slightly more Pb radiogenic ((207)Pb/(204)Pb)(i) (15.64) and ((206)Pb/(204)Pb)(i) (18.56), respectively, reflecting crustal contamination. Petrologic and geochemical data indicate that the greenschists and mafic extrusive rocks represent a magmatic assemblage formed in an island arc setting. The magmatic suite is interpreted as representing an island arc-accretionary complex related to the southward subduction of the Meliata-Maliac ocean under the supra-subduction back-arc Vardar ocean/island arc system. Magmatic activity appears to have initiated in the north during the inception of the island arc system by the Early-Middle Jurassic time in the eastern Rhodope that most likely graded to back-arc spreading southwards as represented by the Late Jurassic MORB-type Samothraki Island ophiolites. This tectonic scenario is further constrained by paleotectonic reconstructions. The arc-trench system collided with the Rhodope in the Late Jurassic times. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A case study of landslides and coping strategies in two villages of central-eastern Nepal

Landslides are an increasing problem in Nepal's Middle Hills due to both natural and human phenomena: mainly increasingly intense monsoon rains and a boom in rural road construction. This problem has largely been neglected due to underreporting of losses and the dispersed nature of landslides. Understanding how populations cope with landslides is a first step toward developing more effective landslide risk management programs. The present research focuses on two villages in Central-Eastern Nepal, both affected by active landslides but with different coping strategies. Research methods are interdisciplinary, based on a geological assessment of landslide risk and a socio-economic study of the villages using household questionnaires, focus group discussions and transect walks. Community risk maps are compared with geological landslide risk maps to better understand and communicate community risk perceptions, priorities and coping strategies. A modified typology of coping strategies is presented, based on previous work by Burton, Kates, and White (1993) that is useful for decision-makers for designing more effective programs for landslide mitigation. Main findings underscore that coping strategies, mainly seeking external assistance and outmigration, are closely linked to access to resources, ethnicity/social status and levels of community organization. Conclusions include the importance of investing in organizational skills, while building on local knowledge about landslide mitigation for reducing landslide risk. There is great potential to increase coping strategies by incorporating skills training on landslide mitigation in existing agricultural outreach and community forest user group training.

Empirical errors of small area estimates from the multisource National Forest Inventory in Eastern Finland

Abstract

Deaths rates in public hospitals of eastern cape province of South Africa.

BACKGROUND: South Africa (SA) is experiencing a rapid epidemiologic transition as a consequence of political, economic and social changes. In this study we described, based on hospital data, the mortality patterns of Non communicable Diseases (NCD), Communicable Diseases (CD), the NCD/CD ratios, and the trends of deaths. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of all deaths occurring in several public hospitals in the Eastern Cape Province of SA between 2002 and 2006. Causes of deaths were coded according to the ICD 10 Edition. RESULTS: A total of 107380 admissions responded to the inclusion criteria between 2002 and 2006. The crude death rate was 4.3% (n=4566) with a mean age of 46±21 years and a sex ratio of 3.1 men (n=3453): 1 woman (n=1113). Out of all deaths, there were 62.9% NCD (n=2872) vs. 37.1% CD (n=1694) with NCD/CD ratio of 1.7. The ratio NCD/CD deaths in men was 1.3 (n=1951/1502) vs. NCD/CD deaths in women of 1.9 (n=735/378). The peak of deaths was observed in winter season. The majority of NCD deaths were at age of 30-64 years, whereas the highest rate of CD deaths was at age< 30 years. The trend of deaths including the majority of NCD, increased from 2002 to 2006. There was a tendency of increase in tuberculosis deaths, but a tendency of decrease in HIV/AIDS deaths was from 2002 to 2006. CONCLUSION: Non-communicable diseases are the leading causes of deaths in rural Eastern Cape province of SA facing Post-epidemiologic transition stages. We recommend overarching priority actions for the response to the Non-communicable Diseases: policy change, prevention, treatment, international cooperation, research, monitoring, accountability, and re-orientation of health systems.

Stand dynamics modelling approaches for multicohort management of eastern Canadian boreal forests

Abstract

Genesis of the Jurassic carbonate-hosted Pb-Zn deposits of Jebel Ressas (North-eastern Tunisia): Evidence from mineralogy, petrography and trace metal contents and isotope (O, C, S, Pb) geochemistry

The Jebel Ressas Pb-Zn deposits in North-Eastern Tunisia occur mainly as open-space fillings (lodes, tectonic breccia cements) in bioclastic limestones of the Upper Jurassic Ressas Formation and along the contact of this formation with Triassic rocks. The galena-sphalerite association and their alteration products (cerussite, hemimorphite, hydrozincite) are set within a calcite gangue. The Triassic rocks exhibit enrichments in trace metals, namely Pb, Co and Cd enrichment in clays and Pb, Zn, Cd, Co and Cr enrichment in carbonates, suggesting that the Triassic rocks have interacted with the ore-bearing fluids associated with the Jebel Ressas Pb-Zn deposits. The delta(18)O content of calcite associated with the Pb-Zn mineralization suggests that it is likely to have precipitated from a fluid that was in equilibrium with the Triassic dolostones. The delta(34)S values in galenas from the Pb-Zn deposits range from -1.5 to +11.4%, with an average of 5.9% and standard deviation of 3.9%. These data imply mixing of thermochemically-reduced heavy sulfur carried in geothermal- and fault-stress-driven deep-seated source fluid with bacterially-reduced light sulfur carried in topography-driven meteoric fluid. Lead isotope ratios in galenas from the Pb-Zn deposits are homogenous and indicate a single upper crustal source of base-metals for these deposits. Synthesis of the geochemical data with geological data suggests that the base-metal mineralization at Jebel Ressas was formed during the Serravallian-Tortonian (or Middle-Late Miocene) Alpine compressional tectonics.

Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0

Mesoscale numerical analysis of the historical November 1982 heavy precipitation event over Andorra (Eastern Pyrenees)

From 6 to 8 November 1982 one of the most catastrophic flash-flood events was recorded in the Eastern Pyrenees affecting Andorra and also France and Spain with rainfall accumulations exceeding 400 mm in 24 h, 44 fatalities and widespread damage. This paper aims to exhaustively document this heavy precipitation event and examines mesoscale simulations performed by the French Meso-NH non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Large-scale simulations show the slow-evolving synoptic environment favourable for the development of a deep Atlantic cyclone which induced a strong southerly flow over the Eastern Pyrenees. From the evolution of the synoptic pattern four distinct phases have been identified during the event. The mesoscale analysis presents the second and the third phase as the most intense in terms of rainfall accumulations and highlights the interaction of the moist and conditionally unstable flows with the mountains. The presence of a SW low level jet (30 m s-1) around 1500 m also had a crucial role on focusing the precipitation over the exposed south slopes of the Eastern Pyrenees. Backward trajectories based on Eulerian on-line passive tracers indicate that the orographic uplift was the main forcing mechanism which triggered and maintained the precipitating systems more than 30 h over the Pyrenees. The moisture of the feeding flow mainly came from the Atlantic Ocean (7-9 g kg-1) and the role of the Mediterranean as a local moisture source was very limited (2-3 g kg-1) due to the high initial water vapour content of the parcels and the rapid passage over the basin along the Spanish Mediterranean coast (less than 12 h).