The Skill of ECMWF Medium-Range Forecasts during the Year of Tropical Convection 2008

This study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model-generated high-resolution 10-day-long predictions for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) 2008. Precipitation forecast skills of the model over the tropics are evaluated against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates. It has been shown that the model was able to capture the monthly to seasonal mean features of tropical convection reasonably. Northward propagation of convective bands over the Bay of Bengal was also forecasted realistically up to 5 days in advance, including the onset phase of the monsoon during the first half of June 2008. However, large errors exist in the daily datasets especially for longer lead times over smaller domains. For shorter lead times (less than 4-5 days), forecast errors are much smaller over the oceans than over land. Moreover, the rate of increase of errors with lead time is rapid over the oceans and is confined to the regions where observed precipitation shows large day-to-day variability. It has been shown that this rapid growth of errors over the oceans is related to the spatial pattern of near-surface air temperature. This is probably due to the one-way air-sea interaction in the atmosphere-only model used for forecasting. While the prescribed surface temperature over the oceans remain realistic at shorter lead times, the pattern and hence the gradient of the surface temperature is not altered with change in atmospheric parameters at longer lead times. It has also been shown that the ECMWF model had considerable difficulties in forecasting very low and very heavy intensity of precipitation over South Asia. The model has too few grids with ``zero'' precipitation and heavy (>40 mm day(-1)) precipitation. On the other hand, drizzle-like precipitation is too frequent in the model compared to that in the TRMM datasets. Further analysis shows that a major source of error in the ECMWF precipitation forecasts is the diurnal cycle over the South Asian monsoon region. The peak intensity of precipitation in the model forecasts over land (ocean) appear about 6 (9) h earlier than that in the observations. Moreover, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is much higher in the model forecasts compared to that in the TRMM estimates. It has been seen that the phase error of the diurnal cycle increases with forecast lead time. The error in monthly mean 3-hourly precipitation forecasts is about 2-4 times of the error in the daily mean datasets. Thus, effort should be given to improve the phase and amplitude forecast of the diurnal cycle of precipitation from the model.

The 26 July 2005 heavy rainfall event over Mumbai: numerical modeling aspects

The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT-2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature suggesting strong atmospheric instability prior to and during the occurrence of the event. Finally, the presence of a conducive vertical wind shear in the lower and mid-troposphere is thought to be one of the major factors influencing the longevity of the event.

Ultimate Strength of RC Wall Panels with Openings

Test results of 12 reinforced concrete (RC) wall panels with openings are presented. The panels have been subjected to in-plane vertical loads applied at an eccentricity to represent possible accidental eccentricity that occurs in practice due to constructional imperfections. The 12 specimens consist of two identical groups of six panels each. One group of panels is tested in one-way in-plane action (i.e., supported at top and bottom edges against lateral displacement). The second group of panels is tested in two-way in-plane action (i.e., supported on all the four edges against lateral displacement). Openings in the panels represent typical door and window openings. Cracking loads, ultimate loads, crack patterns, and lateral deflections of the panels are studied. Empirical methods have been developed for the prediction of ultimate load. Also, lateral deflections, cracking loads, and ultimate loads of identical loads tested under one-way and two-way action are compared.

Päiväkodin varhaiskasvatussuunnitelma ja johtajuus : Kolmen kunnan päiväkodinjohtajien käsityksiä päiväkodin varhaiskasvatussuunnitelmasta

The research goal is to describe curriculas and leadership in day-care centers. The day-care centers needed to write their own curriculas, when Centre for Research and Development of Welfare and Health published The National Curriculum Guidelines on Early Childhood Education and Care in Finland (ECEC) in 2003. The study tries to review day-care center managers views of day-care centers plans for early childhood education and care in three municipals. The research data was collected in the begining of 2008. In previous researches it was found out that co-operation and employees knowledge of education in day-care centers will define the reality (Nivala). Furthermore sosial reality will be based on discussions (Berger JA Luckmann). The subject was approached by one-way analysis of variance. Views of the day-care center managers was compared to the written plans for early childhood education, it s effect on day-care center s early childhood education and evaluation. Besides day-care center managers views were compared to early childhood education. Day care center manager s (N=40) answers were collected to a questionnaire, where there were mainly structured and some open end questions. Data was analysed with PASW Statistics 17 program. The research results showed that the day-care center managers views of the prosess of writing the plans for early childhood education in the day-care centers varied from each other. In addition there were differences in views how the plan of day-care center s early childhood education effected daily in their early childhood education. Furthermore the results showed that there were differenties in evaluating day-care center s education. Whereas the views of early childhood education were not different between the day-care managers in the three municipals.

Explicit codes uniformly reducing repair bandwidth in distributed storage

A distributed storage setting is considered where a file of size B is to be stored across n storage nodes. A data collector should be able to reconstruct the entire data by downloading the symbols stored in any k nodes. When a node fails, it is replaced by a new node by downloading data from some of the existing nodes. The amount of download is termed as repair bandwidth. One way to implement such a system is to store one fragment of an (n, k) MDS code in each node, in which case the repair bandwidth is B. Since repair of a failed node consumes network bandwidth, codes reducing repair bandwidth are of great interest. Most of the recent work in this area focuses on reducing the repair bandwidth of a set of k nodes which store the data in uncoded form, while the reduction in the repair bandwidth of the remaining nodes is only marginal. In this paper, we present an explicit code which reduces the repair bandwidth for all the nodes to approximately B/2. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first explicit code which reduces the repair bandwidth of all the nodes for all feasible values of the system parameters.

Numerical Modelling of the Observed Diurnal Cycle of Indian Monsoon Rainfall

We have analysed the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Indian region (10S-35N, 60E-100E) using both satellite and in-situ data, and found many interesting features associated with this fundamental, yet under-explored, mode of variability. Since there is a distinct and strong diurnal mode of variability associated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, we evaluate the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to simulate the observed diurnal rainfall characteristics. The model (at 54km grid-spacing) is integrated for the month of July, 2006, since this period was particularly favourable for the study of diurnal cycle. We first evaluate the sensitivity of the model to the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST), by using two different SST datasets, namely, Final Analyses (FNL) and Real-time Global (RTG). It was found that with RTG SST the rainfall simulation over central India (CI) was significantly better than that with FNL. On the other hand, over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), rainfall simulated with FNL was marginally better than with RTG. However, the overall performance of RTG SST was found to be better than FNL, and hence it was used for further model simulations. Next, we investigated the role of the convective parameterization scheme on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall. We found that the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme performs significantly better than Betts-Miller-Janjić (BMJ) and Grell-Devenyi schemes. We also studied the impact of other physical parameterizations, namely, microphysics, boundary layer, land surface, and the radiation parameterization, on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall, and identified the “best” model configuration. We used this configuration of the “best” model to perform a sensitivity study on the role of various convective components used in the KF scheme. In particular, we studied the role of convective downdrafts, convective timescale, and feedback fraction, on the simulated diurnal cycle of rainfall. The “best” model simulations, in general, show a good agreement with observations. Specifically, (i) Over CI, the simulated diurnal rainfall peak is at 1430 IST, in comparison to the observed 1430-1730 IST peak; (ii) Over Western Ghats and Burmese mountains, the model simulates a diurnal rainfall peak at 1430 IST, as opposed to the observed peak of 1430-1730 IST; (iii) Over Sumatra, both model and observations show a diurnal peak at 1730 IST; (iv) The observed southward propagating diurnal rainfall bands over BoB are weakly simulated by WRF. Besides the diurnal cycle of rainfall, the mean spatial pattern of total rainfall and its partitioning between the convective and stratiform components, are also well simulated. The “best” model configuration was used to conduct two nested simulations with one-way, three-level nesting (54-18-6km) over CI and BoB. While, the 54km and 18km simulations were conducted for the whole of July, 2006, the 6km simulation was carried out for the period 18 - 24 July, 2006. The results of our coarse- and fine-scale numerical simulations of the diurnal cycle of monsoon rainfall will be discussed.

Explicit Codes Uniformly Reducing Repair Bandwidth in Distributed Storage

A distributed storage setting is considered where a file of size B is to be stored across n storage nodes. A data collector should be able to reconstruct the entire data by downloading the symbols stored in any k nodes. When a node fails, it is replaced by a new node by downloading data from some of the existing nodes. The amount of download is termed as repair bandwidth. One way to implement such a system is to store one fragment of an (n, k) MDS code in each node, in which case the repair bandwidth is B. Since repair of a failed node consumes network bandwidth, codes reducing repair bandwidth are of great interest. Most of the recent work in this area focuses on reducing the repair bandwidth of a set of k nodes which store the data in uncoded form, while the reduction in the repair bandwidth of the remaining nodes is only marginal. In this paper, we present an explicit code which reduces the repair bandwidth for all the nodes to approximately B/2. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first explicit code which reduces the repair bandwidth of all the nodes for all feasible values of the system parameters.

A System-C based Micro architectural Exploration Framework for Latency, Power and Performance Trade-offs of On-Chip Interconnection

We describe a System-C based framework we are developing, to explore the impact of various architectural and microarchitectural level parameters of the on-chip interconnection network elements on its power and performance. The framework enables one to choose from a variety of architectural options like topology, routing policy, etc., as well as allows experimentation with various microarchitectural options for the individual links like length, wire width, pitch, pipelining, supply voltage and frequency. The framework also supports a flexible traffic generation and communication model. We provide preliminary results of using this framework to study the power, latency and throughput of a 4x4 multi-core processing array using mesh, torus and folded torus, for two different communication patterns of dense and sparse linear algebra. The traffic consists of both Request-Response messages (mimicing cache accesses)and One-Way messages. We find that the average latency can be reduced by increasing the pipeline depth, as it enables higher link frequencies. We also find that there exists an optimum degree of pipelining which minimizes energy-delay product.

Reduced Rate Ultra Low Delay Audio Coder using Multistage Vector Quantization

Communication applications are usually delay restricted, especially for the instance of musicians playing over the Internet. This requires a one-way delay of maximum 25 msec and also a high audio quality is desired at feasible bit rates. The ultra low delay (ULD) audio coding structure is well suited to this application and we investigate further the application of multistage vector quantization (MSVQ) to reach a bit rate range below 64 Kb/s, in a scalable manner. Results at 32 Kb/s and 64 Kb/s show that the trained codebook MSVQ performs best, better than KLT normalization followed by a simulated Gaussian MSVQ or simulated Gaussian MSVQ alone. The results also show that there is only a weak dependence on the training data, and that we indeed converge to the perceptual quality of our previous ULD coder at 64 Kb/s.

Degrees of freedom of relay aided MIMO X network with orthogonal components

We consider the one-way relay aided MIMO X fading Channel where there are two transmitters and two receivers along with a relay with M antennas at every node. Every transmitter wants to transmit messages to every other receiver. The relay broadcasts to the receivers along a noisy link which is independent of the transmitters channel. In literature, this is referred to as a relay with orthogonal components. We derive an upper bound on the degrees of freedom of such a network. Next we show that the upper bound is tight by proposing an achievability scheme based on signal space alignment for the same for M = 2 antennas at every node.

SURE-FAST BILATERAL FILTERS

Edge-preserving smoothing is widely used in image processing and bilateral filtering is one way to achieve it. Bilateral filter is a nonlinear combination of domain and range filters. Implementing the classical bilateral filter is computationally intensive, owing to the nonlinearity of the range filter. In the standard form, the domain and range filters are Gaussian functions and the performance depends on the choice of the filter parameters. Recently, a constant time implementation of the bilateral filter has been proposed based on raisedcosine approximation to the Gaussian to facilitate fast implementation of the bilateral filter. We address the problem of determining the optimal parameters for raised-cosine-based constant time implementation of the bilateral filter. To determine the optimal parameters, we propose the use of Stein's unbiased risk estimator (SURE). The fast bilateral filter accelerates the search for optimal parameters by faster optimization of the SURE cost. Experimental results show that the SURE-optimal raised-cosine-based bilateral filter has nearly the same performance as the SURE-optimal standard Gaussian bilateral filter and the Oracle mean squared error (MSE)-based optimal bilateral filter.

Development of a regional model for the North Indian Ocean

We have developed a one-way nested Indian Ocean regional model. The model combines the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) Modular Ocean Model (MOM4p1) at global climate model resolution (nominally one degree), and a regional Indian Ocean MOM4p1 configuration with 25 km horizontal resolution and 1 m vertical resolution near the surface. Inter-annual global simulations with Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II) surface forcing over years 1992-2005 provide surface boundary conditions. We show that relative to the global simulation, (i) biases in upper ocean temperature, salinity and mixed layer depth are reduced, (ii) sea surface height and upper ocean circulation are closer to observations, and (iii) improvements in model simulation can be attributed to refined resolution, more realistic topography and inclusion of seasonal river runoff. Notably, the surface salinity bias is reduced to less than 0.1 psu over the Bay of Bengal using relatively weak restoring to observations, and the model simulates the strong, shallow halocline often observed in the North Bay of Bengal. There is marked improvement in subsurface salinity and temperature, as well as mixed layer depth in the Bay of Bengal. Major seasonal signatures in observed sea surface height anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean, including the coastal waveguide around the Indian peninsula, are simulated with great fidelity. The use of realistic topography and seasonal river runoff brings the three dimensional structure of the East India Coastal Current and West India Coastal Current much closer to observations. As a result, the incursion of low salinity Bay of Bengal water into the southeastern Arabian Sea is more realistic. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spectral response of a droplet in pulsating external flow field

A droplet introduced in an external convective flow field exhibits significant multimodal shape oscillations depending upon the intensity of the aerodynamic forcing. In this paper, a theoretical model describing the temporal evolution of normal modes of the droplet shape is developed. The fluid is assumed to be weakly viscous and Newtonian. The convective flow velocity, which is assumed to be incompressible and inviscid, is incorporated in the model through the normal stress condition at the droplet surface and the equation of motion governing the dynamics of each mode is derived. The coupling between the external flow and the droplet is approximated to be a one-way process, i.e., the external flow perturbations effect the droplet shape oscillations and the droplet oscillation itself does not influence the external flow characteristics. The shape oscillations of the droplet with different fluid properties under different unsteady flow fields were simulated. For a pulsatile external flow, the frequency spectra of the normal modes of the droplet revealed a dominant response at the resonant frequency, in addition to the driving frequency and the corresponding harmonics. At driving frequencies sufficiently different from the resonant frequency of the prolate-oblate oscillation mode of the droplet, the oscillations are stable. But at resonance the oscillation amplitude grows in time leading to breakup depending upon the fluid viscosity. A line vortex advecting past the droplet, simulated as an isotropic jump in the far field velocity, leads to the resonant excitation of the droplet shape modes if and only if the time taken by the vortex to cross the droplet is less than the resonant period of the P-2 mode of the droplet. A train of two vortices interacting with the droplet is also analysed. It shows clearly that the time instant of introduction of the second vortex with respect to the droplet shape oscillation cycle is crucial in determining the amplitude of oscillation. (C) 2014 AIP Publishing LLC.

Molecular Dynamics Study of Phonon Screening in Graphene

Phonon interaction with electrons or phonons or with structural defects result in a phonon mode conversion. The mode conversion is governed by the frequency wave-vector dispersion relation. The control over phonon mode or the screening of phonon in graphene is studied using the propagation of amplitude modulated phonon wave-packet. Control over phonon properties like frequency and velocity opens up several wave guiding, energy transport and thermo-electric applications of graphene. One way to achieve this control is with the introduction of nano-structured scattering in the phonon path. Atomistic model of thermal energy transport is developed which is applicable to devices consisting of source, channel and drain parts. Longitudinal acoustic phonon mode is excited from one end of the device. Molecular dynamics based time integration is adopted for the propagation of excited phonon to the other end of the device. The amount of energy transfer is estimated from the relative change of kinetic energy. Increase in the phonon frequency decreases the kinetic energy transmission linearly in the frequency band of interest. Further reduction in transmission is observed with the tuning of channel height of the device by increasing the boundary scattering. Phonon mode selective transmission control have potential application in thermal insulation or thermo-electric application or photo-thermal amplification.

Statistical significance of episodes with general partial orders

Frequent episode discovery is one of the methods used for temporal pattern discovery in sequential data. An episode is a partially ordered set of nodes with each node associated with an event type. For more than a decade, algorithms existed for episode discovery only when the associated partial order is total (serial episode) or trivial (parallel episode). Recently, the literature has seen algorithms for discovering episodes with general partial orders. In frequent pattern mining, the threshold beyond which a pattern is inferred to be interesting is typically user-defined and arbitrary. One way of addressing this issue in the pattern mining literature has been based on the framework of statistical hypothesis testing. This paper presents a method of assessing statistical significance of episode patterns with general partial orders. A method is proposed to calculate thresholds, on the non-overlapped frequency, beyond which an episode pattern would be inferred to be statistically significant. The method is first explained for the case of injective episodes with general partial orders. An injective episode is one where event-types are not allowed to repeat. Later it is pointed out how the method can be extended to the class of all episodes. The significance threshold calculations for general partial order episodes proposed here also generalize the existing significance results for serial episodes. Through simulations studies, the usefulness of these statistical thresholds in pruning uninteresting patterns is illustrated. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.