Essays on oil price fluctuations and macroeconomic activity

Dans cette thèse, je me suis intéressé aux effets des fluctuations du prix de pétrole sur l'activité macroéconomique selon la cause sous-jacente ces fluctuations. Les modèles économiques utilisés dans cette thèse sont principalement les modèles d'équilibre général dynamique stochastique (de l'anglais Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE) et les modèles Vecteurs Autorégressifs, VAR. Plusieurs études ont examiné les effets des fluctuations du prix de pétrole sur les principaux variables macroéconomiques, mais très peu d'entre elles ont fait spécifiquement le lien entre les effets des fluctuations du prix du pétrole et la l'origine de ces fluctuations. Pourtant, il est largement admis dans les études plus récentes que les augmentations du prix du pétrole peuvent avoir des effets très différents en fonction de la cause sous-jacente de cette augmentation. Ma thèse, structurée en trois chapitres, porte une attention particulière aux sources de fluctuations du prix de pétrole et leurs impacts sur l'activité macroéconomique en général, et en particulier sur l'économie du Canada. Le premier chapitre examine comment les chocs d'offre de pétrole, de demande agrégée, et de demande de précaution de pétrole affectent l'économie du Canada, dans un Modèle d'équilibre Général Dynamique Stochastique estimé. L'estimation est réalisée par la méthode Bayésienne, en utilisant des données trimestrielles canadiennes sur la période 1983Q1 à 2010Q4. Les résultats montrent que les effets dynamiques des fluctuations du prix du pétrole sur les principaux agrégats macro-économiques canadiens varient en fonction de leurs sources. En particulier, une augmentation de 10% du prix réel du pétrole causée par des chocs positifs sur la demande globale étrangère a un effet positif significatif de l'ordre de 0,4% sur le PIB réel du Canada au moment de l'impact et l'effet reste positif sur tous les horizons. En revanche, une augmentation du prix réel du pétrole causée par des chocs négatifs sur l'offre de pétrole ou par des chocs positifs de la demande de pétrole de précaution a un effet négligeable sur le PIB réel du Canada au moment de l'impact, mais provoque une baisse légèrement significative après l'impact. En outre, parmi les chocs pétroliers identifiés, les chocs sur la demande globale étrangère ont été relativement plus important pour expliquer la fluctuation des principaux agrégats macroéconomiques du Canada au cours de la période d'estimation. Le deuxième chapitre utilise un modèle Structurel VAR en Panel pour examiner les liens entre les chocs de demande et d'offre de pétrole et les ajustements de la demande de travail et des salaires dans les industries manufacturières au Canada. Le modèle est estimé sur des données annuelles désagrégées au niveau industriel sur la période de 1975 à 2008. Les principaux résultats suggèrent qu'un choc positif de demande globale a un effet positif sur la demande de travail et les salaires, à court terme et à long terme. Un choc négatif sur l'offre de pétrole a un effet négatif relativement faible au moment de l'impact, mais l'effet devient positif après la première année. En revanche, un choc positif sur la demande précaution de pétrole a un impact négatif à tous les horizons. Les estimations industrie-par-industrie confirment les précédents résultats en panel. En outre, le papier examine comment les effets des différents chocs pétroliers sur la demande travail et les salaires varient en fonction du degré d'exposition commerciale et de l'intensité en énergie dans la production. Il ressort que les industries fortement exposées au commerce international et les industries fortement intensives en énergie sont plus vulnérables aux fluctuations du prix du pétrole causées par des chocs d'offre de pétrole ou des chocs de demande globale. Le dernier chapitre examine les implications en terme de bien-être social de l'introduction des inventaires en pétrole sur le marché mondial à l'aide d'un modèle DSGE de trois pays dont deux pays importateurs de pétrole et un pays exportateur de pétrole. Les gains de bien-être sont mesurés par la variation compensatoire de la consommation sous deux règles de politique monétaire. Les principaux résultats montrent que l'introduction des inventaires en pétrole a des effets négatifs sur le bien-être des consommateurs dans chacun des deux pays importateurs de pétrole, alors qu'il a des effets positifs sur le bien-être des consommateurs dans le pays exportateur de pétrole, quelle que soit la règle de politique monétaire. Par ailleurs, l'inclusion de la dépréciation du taux de change dans les règles de politique monétaire permet de réduire les coûts sociaux pour les pays importateurs de pétrole. Enfin, l'ampleur des effets de bien-être dépend du niveau d'inventaire en pétrole à l'état stationnaire et est principalement expliquée par les chocs sur les inventaires en pétrole.

Perfil de exposición ocupacional a polvo de cemento y sílice cristalina en procesos de cementación y Fracturamiento hidráulico en el sector Oil & Gas en Colombia: un estudio retrospectivo (2009 – 2013).

La exposición a polvo de cemento y sílice ha sido estudiada por años en países como Estados Unidos y Canadá, cuando el polvo de cemento se inhala durante diferentes actividades, se puede ocasionar afectación del tracto respiratorio de las personas expuestas. El estudio “Perfil de exposición ocupacional a polvo de cemento y sílice cristalina en procesos de cementación y Fracturamiento hidráulico en el sector Oil & Gas en Colombia: un estudio retrospectivo (2009 – 2013).” Permitió identificar las actividades funcionales que representan un riesgo potencial por la presencia de partículas aerosuspendidas, analizar una base de datos que reúne cerca de 18298 registros de evaluaciones higiénicas en el sector Oil & Gas, realizar posteriormente el cálculo de material particulado en la fracción respirable y sílice cristalina aplicables para cada proceso y el procesamiento de los datos estadísticamente, confrontar estos estimadores estadísticos con los valores límites permisibles definidos por el gobierno nacional, los resultados incluyeron la caracterización de un perfil de exposición ocupacional por actividad funcional para el proceso de cementación, la identificación de los trabajadores más expuestos según las condiciones de exposición y cuáles de estos perfiles superan los límites máximos permisibles para un turno de trabajo de 12 horas, esta información permitirá a los profesionales de la salud e higiene laboral orientar actividades de seguimiento, vigilancia y control en los grupos de exposición similar específicos. Para el proceso de fracturamiento hidráulico los datos encontrados no fueron estadísticamente significativos.

Mortality of Migratory Birds from Marine Commercial Fisheries and Offshore Oil and Gas Production in Canada

There is an imminent need for conservation and best-practice management efforts in marine ecosystems where global-scale declines in the biodiversity and biomass of large vertebrate predators are increasing and marine communities are being altered. We examine two marine-based industries that incidentally take migratory birds in Canada: (1) commercial fisheries, through bycatch, and (2) offshore oil and gas exploration, development, and production. We summarize information from the scientific literature and technical reports and also present new information from recently analyzed data to assess the magnitude and scope of mortality. Fisheries bycatch was responsible for the highest levels of incidental take of migratory bird species; estimated combined take in the longline, gillnet, and bottom otter trawl fisheries within the Atlantic, including the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and Pacific regions was 2679 to 45,586 birds per year. For the offshore oil and gas sector, mortality estimates ranged from 188 to 4494 deaths per year due to the discharge of produced waters resulting in oil sheens and collisions with platforms and vessels; however these estimates for the oil and gas sector are based on many untested assumptions. In spite of the uncertainties, we feel levels of mortality from these two industries are unlikely to affect the marine bird community in Canada, but some effects on local populations from bycatch are likely. Further research and monitoring will be required to: (1) better estimate fisheries-related mortality for vulnerable species and populations that may be impacted by local fisheries, (2) determine the effects of oil sheens from produced waters, and attraction to platforms and associated mortality from collisions, sheens, and flaring, so that better estimates of mortality from the offshore oil and gas sector can be obtained, and (3) determine impacts associated with accidental spills, which are not included in our current assessment. With a better understanding of the direct mortality of marine birds from industry, appropriate mitigation and management actions can be implemented. Cooperation from industry for data collection, research to fill knowledge gaps, and implementation of mitigation approaches will all be needed to conserve marine birds in Canada.

Potential cost and environmental impact of feeding high-oil corn to poultry in Brazil

The objective of the study was to evaluate the cost and environmental impact of replacing traditional corn, which is the main ingredient in poultry diets, with a high-oil corn (HOC) variety. Using linear programming, diets were formulated with either traditional corn or HOC. The results indicate that HOC-based diets cost up to $11.38/tonne less than traditional corn-based diets. Using HOC rather than traditional corn in diets has the potential to reduce the annual nitrogen excreted to the environment from broilers and broiler breeders in Brazil by 6.44 Mtonnes. In addition, there is the potential to reduce P excretion by 4.52 Mtonnes/yr, because the need to supplement diets with inorganic P sources, such as dicalcium phosphate, is much lower with HOC-based diets. We estimate that 28.5 Mtonnes of dicalcium phosphate can be saved annually using HOC in Brazilian poultry diets. The literature suggests that replacing traditional corn with HOC does not affect bird metabolism, while positive impacts on growth rate have been recorded. Therefore, substituting traditional corn with HOC has cost and environmental benefits for the Brazilian poultry industry without compromising productivity.

Seasonal changes in olive fruit characteristics and oil accumulation during ripening process

Olive fruits of three of the most important Spanish and Italian cultivars, 'Picual', `Hojiblanca' and 'Frantoio', were harvested at bi-weekly periods during three crop seasons to study their development and ripening process. Fresh and dry weights and ripening index were determined for fruit, while dry matter, oil and moisture contents were determined in both fruit and pulp (flesh). Fruit growth rate and oil accumulation were calculated. Each olive cultivar showed a different ripening pattern, 'Hojiblanca' being the last one to maturate. Fruit weight increased, decreasing its growth rate from the middle of November. Dry matter and moisture contents decreased during ripening in pulp and fruit, 'Hojiblanca' showing the highest values for both. Oil content, when expressed on a fresh weight basis, increased in all cultivars, although for the last time period showed variations due to climatic conditions. During ripening, oil content on a dry weight basis increased in fruit, but oil biosynthesis in flesh ceased from November. Olive fruits presented lower oil and higher dry matter contents in the year of lowest rainfall. Therefore fruit harvesting should be carried out from the middle of November in order to obtain the highest oil yield and avoid natural fruit drop. (C) 2004 Society of Chemical Industry.

Effects of vitamin E and fish oil inclusion in broiler diets on meat fatty acid composition and on the flavour of a composite sample of breast meat

BACKGROUND: Enriching poultry meat with long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC n-3 PUFA) can increase low population intakes of LC n-3 PUFA, but fishy taints can spoil reheated meat. This experiment determined the effect of different amounts of LC n-3 PUFA and vitamin E in the broiler diet on the fatty acid composition and sensory characteristics of the breast meat. Ross 308 broilers (120) were randomly allocated to one of five treatments from 21 to 42 days of age. Diets contained (g kg−1) 0, 9 or 18 LC n-3 PUFA (0LC, 9LC, 18LC), and 100, 150 or 200 mg LD--tocopherol acetate kg−1 (E). The five diets were 0LC100E, 9LC100E, 18LC100E, 18LC150E, 18LC200E, with four pens per diet, except 18LC100E (eight pens). Breast meat was analysed for fatty acids (uncooked) and sensory analysis by R-index (reheated). RESULTS: LC n-3 PUFA content (mg kg−1 meat) was 514 (0LC100E) and 2236 (9LC and 18LC). Compared with 0LC100E, meat from 18LC100E and 18LC150E tasted significantly different, while 23% of panellists detected fishy taints in 9LC100E and 18LC200E. CONCLUSION: Chicken meat can be enriched with nutritionally meaningful amounts of LC n-3 PUFA, but > 100 mg dl--tocopherol acetate kg−1 broiler diet is needed to protect reheated meat from oxidative deterioration. Copyright © 2010 Society of Chemical Industry

Structure and Applications of a Rhamnolipid Surfactant Produced in Soybean Oil Waste

Soybean oil soapstock was utilized as an alternative carbon source for the production of rhamnolipids by Pseudomonas aeruginosa LBI strain. The chemical composition and properties of the rhamnolipid mixture obtained were determined to define its potential applications. The chemical characterization of the rhamnolipid has revealed the presence of ten different homologues. The monorhamnolipid RhaC(10)C(10) and the dirhamnolipid Rha(2)C(10)C(10) were the main components of the mixture that showed predominance of 44% and 29%, respectively, after 144-h of cultivation. The biosurfactant was able to form stable emulsions with several hydrocarbons and showed excellent emulsification for soybean oil and chicken fat (100%). The rhamnolipid removed 67% of crude oil present in sand samples and presented antimicrobial activity against Bacillus cereus and Mucor miehei at 64 mu g/mL and inhibition of Neurospora crassa, Staphylococcus aureus, and Micrococcus luteus at 256 mu g/mL. The results demonstrated that the rhamnolipid produced in soybean oil soapstock can be useful in environmental and food industry applications.

Insuring cleaner oceans: the economics of oil pollution prevention

The current system of controlling oil spills involves a complex relationship of international, federal and state law, which has not proven to be very effective. The multiple layers of regulation often leave shipowners unsure of the laws facing them. Furthemore, nations have had difficulty enforcing these legal requirements. This thesis deals with the role marine insurance can play within the existing system of legislation to provide a strong preventative influence that is simple and cost-effective to enforce. In principle, insurance has two ways of enforcing higher safety standards and limiting the risk of an accident occurring. The first is through the use of insurance premiums that are based on the level of care taken by the insured. This means that a person engaging in riskier behavior faces a higher insurance premium, because their actions increase the probability of an accident occurring. The second method, available to the insurer, is collectively known as cancellation provisions or underwriting clauses. These are clauses written into an insurance contract that invalidates the agreement when certain conditions are not met by the insured The problem has been that obtaining information about the behavior of an insured party requires monitoring and that incurs a cost to the insurer. The application of these principles proves to be a more complicated matter. The modern marine insurance industry is a complicated system of multiple contracts, through different insurers, that covers the many facets of oil transportation. Their business practices have resulted in policy packages that cross the neat bounds of individual, specific insurance coverage. This paper shows that insurance can improve safety standards in three general areas -crew training, hull and equipment construction and maintenance, and routing schemes and exclusionary zones. With crew, hull and equipment, underwriting clauses can be used to ensure that minimum standards are met by the insured. Premiums can then be structured to reflect the additional care taken by the insured above and beyond these minimum standards. Routing schemes are traffic flow systems applied to congested waterways, such as the entrance to New York harbor. Using natural obstacles or manmade dividers, ships are separated into two lanes of opposing traffic, similar to a road. Exclusionary zones are marine areas designated off limits to tanker traffic either because of a sensitive ecosystem or because local knowledge is required of the region to ensure safe navigation. Underwriting clauses can be used to nullify an insurance contract when a tanker is not in compliance with established exclusionary zones or routing schemes.

Structure and Applications of a Rhamnolipid Surfactant Produced in Soybean Oil Waste

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The effect of sodium chloride on the formation of W/O microemulsions in soy bean oil/surfactant/water systems and the solubilization of small hydrophilic molecules

Partial pseudoternary phase diagrams were constructed for soy bean oil (SBO)/surfactant/NaCl aqueous solution systems, at 25 degrees C, using the anionic sodium bis(2-ethylhexyl) sulfosuccinate (ACT) and zwiterionic phosphatidylcholine (PC) or mixtures of these surfactants. The isotropic single phase of water-in-oil (W/O) microemulsions (MEs) is shown in the phase diagram and their viscosity reported. ME samples containing small amount of surfactant exhibit slightly higher viscosity than pure SBO, and were used in the solubilization of small water soluble molecules. NaCl enhances the area of the ME phase and MEs with different surfactant composition exhibit different induction time as obtained from tests of oxidative stability, and so are the MEs enriched with ascorbic acid, folic acid and FeSO4, with the latter exhibiting lower stability. The so prepared enriched soy bean oil has potential application in food industry since the surfactants are food grade. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Toothbrushing with vegetable oil: a clinical and laboratorial analysis.

The dentifrices currently available in the marketplace contain many anticariogenic substances, fluoride and abrasives aimed to better clean the dental surface, remove dental plaque, improve salivary flow and its buffer capacity and reduce colonies of bacteria such as S. mutans, the causative agent of dental caries. The objective of this study was to evaluate the possibility of adequately removing dental plaque using an experimental almond oil dentifrice (Titoil) with no abrasives or antiplaque agents. This study was carried out with 80 volunteers, all of them 18-year-old recruits from the military training school of Araçatuba -- SP. Saliva sampling and dental plaque disclosing were undertaken both before and after 28 days of toothbrushing with a low abrasive dentifrice (Group 1: 40 volunteers) or with Titoil (Group 2: 40 volunteers). Statistical analysis of the results revealed that the experimental dentifrice (Titoil) did not interfere with salivary flow and reduced dental plaque more than the low abrasive dentifrice, improved the salivary buffer capacity and decreased salivary S. mutans (Caritest-SM) as much as regular dentifrices. It was concluded that if the dental industry replaces abrasive by vegetable oil in dentifrices, these will be more effective in maintaining oral health and will cause less dental abrasion.

Essential oil composition of Aloysia triphylla (L'Herit) Britton leaves cultivated in Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil

The family Verbenaceae comprises about 175 genera and 2300 species, distributed in tropics and subtropics, mainly in temperate zone of southern hemisphere. The lemon verbena (Aloysia triphylla (L'Herit) Britton) is a perennial, bushy plant originally from South America. The essential oil of this plant is used in pharmaceutical, cosmetic and perfumery industry. Therapeutic properties include febrifuge, sedative, stomachical, diuretic, and antispasmodic activities. The present work aimed to identify the chemical composition of essential oil of Aloysia triphylla leaves. The study was done in Lageado Experimental Farm of the Department of Plant Production-Horticulture, Agronomical Sciences College, São Paulo State University Campus of Botucatu. Leaves of lemon verbena from Medicinal and Aromatic Plant Garden, were collected in the end of winter (September/2001). The essential oil was extracted by hydrodistillation, in Clevenger apparatus. 100 g of leaves were used in each extraction. Four extractions were performed during three hours. The essential oils of the leaves were analyzed in Gas Chromatography Mass spectrometry (CG-MS, Shimadzu, QP-5000), equipped with capillary column DB-5 (30 m × 0,25 mm × 0,25 mm), split 1/35, injector for 220 C°, detector for 230 C°, dragged by gas He (1,0 mL/min), with programmed temperature for 60 C° to 240 C°, 3 C°/min. The identification of the substances was held by comparison of their mass spectra with data of the CG-MS (Nist 62 lib), literature references and retention index of Kovats. The main constituents of essential oils were geranial (29.54 %), neral (27.01 %), limonene (15.93 %), geranyl acetate (4.0 %) and geraniol (3.96 %). This species possesses high quantity of monoterpenes and low quantity of sesquiterpenes.

Composition of coriander essential oil from Brazil

Coriander (Coriandrum sativum L.) is an annual and herbaceous plant, belonging to the Apiaceae family. Native of southern Europe and western Mediterranean region, this herb is cultivated world widely. This species, rich in linalool, has potential using as source of essential oil and as a medicinal plant. It has been used as analgesic, carminative, digestive, depurative, anti-rheumatic and antispasmodic agent. Its fruits (commonly called seeds) are used for flavoring candies, in cookery, perfumery, beverage and in tobacco industry. The aim of this study was to analyze the chemical composition of the seed essential oil of this species grown in Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil. The experiment was carried out in Lageado Experimental Farm, Department of Plant Production, Agronomical Sciences College, São Paulo State University. The fruits were harvest 108 days after sowing. The essential oils were extracted by hydro distillation, in Clevenger apparatus. 50 g of fruits were used in each extraction. Three extractions were performed during three hours. The essential oils were analyzed in Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometer (CG-MS, Shimadzu, QP-5000), equipped with DB-5 capillary column (30 m × 0,25 mm × 0,25 mm), split 1/20, injector for 240 C°, detector for 230 C°, dragged by gas He (1,7 mL/min), with programmed temperature for 40 C° (5 min)-150 C°, 4 C°/min; 150 C°-280 C°, 8 C°/min. The identification of the compounds was made by comparison of their spectra of masses with data from CG-MS (Nist 62 lib), literature references and retention index of Kovats. The 18 most important components were identified and quantified. The main components of the oil were linalool (77.48 %), γ-terpinene (4.64 %), α-pinene (3.97 %), limonene (1.28 %), geraniol (0.64 %) and 2-decenal (0.16 %).

Biomass production and chemical composition of essential oil of Piper callosum as affected by spacing in Manaus, Amazonas State, Brazil

The family Piperaceae contains nearly 2000 species, most of them distributed in two genera, Piper and Peperomia. In Brazil circa 170 Piper species are found, mainly in tropical areas Their use ranges from flavoring and culinary to raw material for pharmaceutical and cosmetic industry. One of these species, Piper callosum, is used in folk medicine in the Amazon area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the production of biomass (aerial parts) as well as yield and composition of the essential oil from the leaves, according to different spacing between cultivated plants at Embrapa Western Amazon, in Manaus, State of Amazonas, Brazil. The experimental design was randomized blocks, with four treatments and seven replicates with six plants. Biomass production was inversely proportional to the spatial arrangements, with the greatest biomass production (1034.93 kg/ha) in the shortest spacing (E1), although no statistical difference was verified between E3 and E4. The same response was observed for the production of essential oil. The chemical composition of the oil was not affected by spacing, and major compounds found were safrole (59.1%), beta-pinene (8.3%), alpha-pinene (6.5%), methyl eugenol (6.3%) and 1,8-cineole (4.1).

ANTIOXIDANT ACTIVITY OF ROSEMARY EXTRACT IN SOYBEAN OIL UNDER THERMOXIDATION

This study examined the antioxidant activity of lyophilized rosemary extract added to soybean oil, subjected to thermoxidation conditions and also its synergistic effect with the synthetic antioxidant tertiary butylhydroquinone (TBHQ). Soybean oil samples with no antioxidant added (SO), 3,000mg/kg rosemary extract (RE), 50mg/kg TBHQ (TBHQ), and a mixture of those two antioxidants (RE+TBHQ) were heated to 180C for 20h. After 0, 10 and 20h, the oxidative stability, total polar compounds, tocopherol content and fatty acid profile were determined. The addition of rosemary extract increased oxidative stability and resulted in a lower formation of total polar compounds and a higher retention of tocopherols. The RE treatment showed the highest amount of polyunsaturated fatty acids after 20h. There was not any synergy between TBHQ and rosemary extract in preventing oxidation of soybean oil. Rosemary extract showed a higher antioxidant potential when compared with TBHQ. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: Antioxidants are important ingredients in food processing because they have the capacity to protect foods, containing oils and fats, from damage caused by free radicals and reactive oxygen species. Synthetic antioxidants are widely used in the food industry; however, their utilization has been questioned because of toxicity. Therefore, there is a growing interest in the use of natural antioxidants to reduce or replace the synthetic antioxidants. Several species are used in cooking, medicine and by the pharmaceutical industry, standing out the rosemary. Being rich in compounds with high antioxidant activity, the rosemary extract can be used to replace synthetic antioxidants used in vegetable oils. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.