A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Food's visually perceived fat content affects discrimination speed in an orthogonal spatial task.

Choosing what to eat is a complex activity for humans. Determining a food's pleasantness requires us to combine information about what is available at a given time with knowledge of the food's palatability, texture, fat content, and other nutritional information. It has been suggested that humans may have an implicit knowledge of a food's fat content based on its appearance; Toepel et al. (Neuroimage 44:967-974, 2009) reported visual-evoked potential modulations after participants viewed images of high-energy, high-fat food (HF), as compared to viewing low-fat food (LF). In the present study, we investigated whether there are any immediate behavioural consequences of these modulations for human performance. HF, LF, or non-food (NF) images were used to exogenously direct participants' attention to either the left or the right. Next, participants made speeded elevation discrimination responses (up vs. down) to visual targets presented either above or below the midline (and at one of three stimulus onset asynchronies: 150, 300, or 450 ms). Participants responded significantly more rapidly following the presentation of a HF image than following the presentation of either LF or NF images, despite the fact that the identity of the images was entirely task-irrelevant. Similar results were found when comparing response speeds following images of high-carbohydrate (HC) food items to low-carbohydrate (LC) food items. These results support the view that people rapidly process (i.e. within a few hundred milliseconds) the fat/carbohydrate/energy value or, perhaps more generally, the pleasantness of food. Potentially as a result of HF/HC food items being more pleasant and thus having a higher incentive value, it seems as though seeing these foods results in a response readiness, or an overall alerting effect, in the human brain.

Biotic potential and reproductive parameters of Spodoptera eridania (Stoll) (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) in the laboratory

Biotic potential and reprodutcive parameters of Spodoptera eridania (Stoll) (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) in the laboratory: This study aimed to evaluate the biotic potential and reproductive parameters of Spodoptera eridania (Stoll, 1782) under controlled conditions (25 ± 1ºC, 70 ± 10% RH and 14 hour photophase). The longevity, pre-, post- and oviposition periods, fecundity and fertility of 15 couples was evaluated. The longevity of females (10.80 days) was not significantly higher than those of males (9.27 days). The mean durations of the pre, post and oviposition periods were 2.067, 0.600 and 8.133 days, respectively. The mean fecundity per female was 1,398 eggs and the mean fertility was 1,367.50 larvae. On average, females copulated 1.133 times. A strong positive correlation was observed between the number of mating and fecundity (r = 0.881, P <0.001). However a strong negative correlation was observed between the number of copulations and the duration of the pre-oviposition period (r = -0.826, P = 0.002) and longevity (r = -0.823, P = 0.001). The biotic potential of S. eridania was estimated at 1.894 x 10(25) individuals/female/year. The net reproductive rate (Ro) was 560.531 times per generation and the mean generation time (T) was 35.807 days. The intrinsic rate of increase (rm) was 0.177, with a finite rate of increase (l) of 1.193, per week

How useful is satellite positioning system (GPS) to track gait parameters? A review.

Over the last century, numerous techniques have been developed to analyze the movement of humans while walking and running. The combined use of kinematics and kinetics methods, mainly based on high speed video analysis and forceplate, have permitted a comprehensive description of locomotion process in terms of energetics and biomechanics. While the different phases of a single gait cycle are well understood, there is an increasing interest to know how the neuro-motor system controls gait form stride to stride. Indeed, it was observed that neurodegenerative diseases and aging could impact gait stability and gait parameters steadiness. From both clinical and fundamental research perspectives, there is therefore a need to develop techniques to accurately track gait parameters stride-by-stride over a long period with minimal constraints to patients. In this context, high accuracy satellite positioning can provide an alternative tool to monitor outdoor walking. Indeed, the high-end GPS receivers provide centimeter accuracy positioning with 5-20 Hz sampling rate: this allows the stride-by-stride assessment of a number of basic gait parameters--such as walking speed, step length and step frequency--that can be tracked over several thousand consecutive strides in free-living conditions. Furthermore, long-range correlations and fractal-like pattern was observed in those time series. As compared to other classical methods, GPS seems a promising technology in the field of gait variability analysis. However, relative high complexity and expensiveness--combined with a usability which requires further improvement--remain obstacles to the full development of the GPS technology in human applications.

Sedation and analgesia for colonoscopy: patient tolerance, pain, and cardiorespiratory parameters.

BACKGROUND: Colonoscopy is generally performed with the patient sedated and receiving analgesics. However, the benefit of the most often used combination of intravenous midazolam and pethidine on patient tolerance and pain and its cardiorespiratory risk have not been fully defined. METHODS: In this double-blind prospective study, 150 outpatients undergoing routine colonoscopy were randomly assigned to receive either (1) low-dose midazolam (35 micrograms/kg) and pethidine (700 micrograms/kg in 48 patients, 500 micrograms/kg in 102 patients), (2) midazolam and placebo pethidine, or (3) pethidine and placebo midazolam. RESULTS: Tolerance (visual analog scale, 0 to 100 points: 0 = excellent; 100 = unbearable) did not improve significantly more in group 1 compared with group 2 (7 points; 95% confidence interval [-2-17]) and group 3 (2 points; 95% confidence interval [-7-12]). Similarly, pain was not significantly improved in group 1 as compared with the other groups. Male gender (p < 0.001) and shorter duration of the procedure (p = 0.004), but not amnesia, were associated with better patient tolerance and less pain. Patient satisfaction was similar in all groups. Oxygen desaturation and hypotension occurred in 33% and 11%, respectively, with a similar frequency in all three groups. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the combination of low-dose midazolam and pethidine does not improve patient tolerance and lessen pain during colonoscopy as compared with either drug given alone. When applying low-dose midazolam, oxygen desaturation and hypotension do not occur more often after combined use of both drugs. For the individual patient, sedation and analgesia should be based on the endoscopist's clinical judgement.

Diagnostic value of vestibulo-ocular reflex parameters in the detection and characterization of labyrinthine lesions.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the power of various parameters of the vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) in detecting unilateral peripheral vestibular dysfunction and in characterizing certain inner ear pathologies. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective study of consecutive ambulatory patients presenting with acute onset of peripheral vertigo and spontaneous nystagmus. SETTING: Tertiary referral center. PATIENTS: Seventy-four patients (40 females, 34 males) and 22 normal subjects (11 females, 11 males) were included in the study. Patients were classified in three main diagnoses: vestibular neuritis: 40; viral labyrinthitis: 22; Meniere's disease: 12. METHODS: The VOR function was evaluated by standard caloric and impulse rotary tests (velocity step). A mathematical model of vestibular function was used to characterize the VOR response to rotational stimulation. The diagnostic value of the different VOR parameters was assessed by uni- and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: In univariable analysis, caloric asymmetry emerged as the most powerful VOR parameter in identifying unilateral vestibular deficit, with a boundary limit set at 20%. In multivariable analysis, the combination of caloric asymmetry and rotational time constant asymmetry significantly improved the discriminatory power over caloric alone (p&lt;0.0001) and produced a detection score with a correct classification of 92.4%. In discriminating labyrinthine diseases, different combinations of the VOR parameters were obtained for each diagnosis (p&lt;0.003) supporting that the VOR characteristics differ between the three inner ear disorders. However, the clinical usefulness of these characteristics in separating the pathologies was limited. CONCLUSION: We propose a powerful logistic model combining the indices of caloric and time constant asymmetries to detect a peripheral vestibular loss, with an accuracy of 92.4%. Based on vestibular data only, the discrimination between the different inner ear diseases is statistically possible, which supports different pathophysiologic changes in labyrinthine pathologies.

A type stars - physical parameters from UVBY and H-beta photometry

uvby H-beta photometry has been obtained for a sample of 93 selected main sequence A stars. The purpose was to determine accurate effective temperatures, surface gravities, and absolute magnitudes for an individual determination of ages and parallaxes, which have to be included in a more extensive work analyzing the kinematic properties of A V stars. Several calibrations and methods to determine the above mentioned parameters have been reviewed, allowing the design of a new algorithm for their determination. The results obtained using this procedure were tested in a previous paper using uvby H-beta data from the Hauck and Mermilliod catalogue, and comparing the rusulting temperatures, surface gravities and absolute magnitudes with empirical determinations of these parameters.

Estimates of genetic parameters of trotting performance traits for repeated annual records

Selostus: Ravihevosten jalostettavia ominaisuuksia kuvaavien kilpailumittojen perinnölliset tunnusluvut

Genetic parameters for growth traits in pigs estimated using third degree polynomial functions

Selostus: Sian kasvuominaisuuksien perinnölliset tunnusluvut arvioituna kolmannen asteen polynomifunktion avulla

Formule sanguine: intérêt des nouveaux paramètres [Complete blood counts: new parameters].

Performing a complete blood count analysis is a daily routine necessary for a good care of patients. Nowadays, modern blood analyzers provide on top of classical blood values, several additional parameters. In this paper, using short case presentations, we discuss how to interpret these results and integrate them in the clinical context.

Correlations between trabecular bone score, measured using anteroposterior dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry acquisition, and 3-dimensional parameters of bone microarchitecture: an experimental study on human cadaver vertebrae.

Developing a novel technique for the efficient, noninvasive clinical evaluation of bone microarchitecture remains both crucial and challenging. The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a new gray-level texture measurement that is applicable to dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. Significant correlations between TBS and standard 3-dimensional (3D) parameters of bone microarchitecture have been obtained using a numerical simulation approach. The main objective of this study was to empirically evaluate such correlations in anteroposterior spine DXA images. Thirty dried human cadaver vertebrae were evaluated. Micro-computed tomography acquisitions of the bone pieces were obtained at an isotropic resolution of 93μm. Standard parameters of bone microarchitecture were evaluated in a defined region within the vertebral body, excluding cortical bone. The bone pieces were measured on a Prodigy DXA system (GE Medical-Lunar, Madison, WI), using a custom-made positioning device and experimental setup. Significant correlations were detected between TBS and 3D parameters of bone microarchitecture, mostly independent of any correlation between TBS and bone mineral density (BMD). The greatest correlation was between TBS and connectivity density, with TBS explaining roughly 67.2% of the variance. Based on multivariate linear regression modeling, we have established a model to allow for the interpretation of the relationship between TBS and 3D bone microarchitecture parameters. This model indicates that TBS adds greater value and power of differentiation between samples with similar BMDs but different bone microarchitectures. It has been shown that it is possible to estimate bone microarchitecture status derived from DXA imaging using TBS.

Drift compensation of gas sensor array data by Orthogonal Signal Correction

Drift is an important issue that impairs the reliability of gas sensing systems. Sensor aging, memory effects and environmental disturbances produce shifts in sensor responses that make initial statistical models for gas or odor recognition useless after a relatively short period (typically few weeks). Frequent recalibrations are needed to preserve system accuracy. However, when recalibrations involve numerous samples they become expensive and laborious. An interesting and lower cost alternative is drift counteraction by signal processing techniques. Orthogonal Signal Correction (OSC) is proposed for drift compensation in chemical sensor arrays. The performance of OSC is also compared with Component Correction (CC). A simple classification algorithm has been employed for assessing the performance of the algorithms on a dataset composed by measurements of three analytes using an array of seventeen conductive polymer gas sensors over a ten month period.