Observation errors in early historical upper-air observations

Upper-air observations are a fundamental data source for global atmospheric data products, but uncertainties, particularly in the early years, are not well known. Most of the early observations, which have now been digitized, are prone to a large variety of undocumented uncertainties (errors) that need to be quantified, e.g., for their assimilation in reanalysis projects. We apply a novel approach to estimate errors in upper-air temperature, geopotential height, and wind observations from the Comprehensive Historical Upper-Air Network for the time period from 1923 to 1966. We distinguish between random errors, biases, and a term that quantifies the representativity of the observations. The method is based on a comparison of neighboring observations and is hence independent of metadata, making it applicable to a wide scope of observational data sets. The estimated mean random errors for all observations within the study period are 1.5 K for air temperature, 1.3 hPa for pressure, 3.0 ms−1for wind speed, and 21.4° for wind direction. The estimates are compared to results of previous studies and analyzed with respect to their spatial and temporal variability.

Safety and efficacy of imatinib in CML over a period of 10 years: data from the randomized CML-study IV.

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) have changed the natural course of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). With the advent of second-generation TKI safety and efficacy issues have gained interest. The randomized CML - Study IV was used for a long-term evaluation of imatinib (IM). 1503 patients have received IM, 1379 IM monotherapy. After a median observation of 7.1 years, 965 patients (64%) still received IM. At 10 years, progression-free survival was 82%, overall survival 84%, 59% achieved MR(5), 72% MR(4.5), 81% MR(4), 89% major molecular remission and 92% MR(2) (molecular equivalent to complete cytogenetic remission). All response levels were reached faster with IM800 mg except MR(5). Eight-year probabilities of adverse drug reactions (ADR) were 76%, of grades 3-4 22%, of non-hematologic 73%, and of hematologic 28%. More ADR were observed with IM800 mg and IM400 mg plus interferon α (IFN). Most patients had their first ADR early with decreasing frequency later on. No new late toxicity was observed. ADR to IM are frequent, but mostly mild and manageable, also with IM 800 mg and IM 400 mg+IFN. The deep molecular response rates indicate that most patients are candidates for IM discontinuation. After 10 years, IM continues to be an excellent initial choice for most patients with CML.Leukemia advance online publication, 13 March 2015; doi:10.1038/leu.2015.36.

High prevalence of hereditary thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura in Central Norway: from clinical observation to evidence.

BACKGROUND Hereditary thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) caused by ADAMTS13 mutations is a rare, but serious condition. The prevalence is unknown, but seems to be high in Norway. OBJECTIVES To identify all patients with hereditary TTP in Central Norway and to investigate the prevalence of hereditary TTP and the population frequencies of two common ADAMTS13 mutations. Patients/Methods Patients were identified in a cross-sectional study within Central Norway Health Region by means of three different search strategies. Frequencies of ADAMTS13 mutations, c.4143_4144dupA and c.3178 C>T (p.R1060W) were investigated in a population-based cohort (500 alleles) and in healthy blood donors (2104 alleles) by taking advantage of the close neighbourhood of the ADAMTS13 and ABO blood group gene loci. The observed prevalence of hereditary TTP was compared to the rates of ADAMTS13 mutation carriers in different geographical regions. RESULTS We identified 11 families with hereditary TTP in Central Norway during the 10-year study period. The prevalence of hereditary TTP in Central Norway was 16.7 x 10(-6) . The most prevalent mutation was c.4143_4144dupA, accounting for two thirds of disease causing alleles among patients and having an allelic frequency of 0.33% in the Central, 0.10% in the Western, and 0.04% in the Southeastern Norwegian population. The allelic frequency of c.3178 C>T (p.R1060W) in the population was even higher (0.3-1%), but this mutation was infrequent among patients, with no homozygous cases. CONCLUSIONS We found a high prevalence of hereditary TTP in Central Norway and an apparently different penetrance of ADAMTS13 mutations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Daily mean surface meteorology and river discharge in Central Sulawesi for the period 2002-2005

The El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the strongest known natural interannual climate fluctuation. The most recent two extreme ENSO events of 1982/83 and 1997/98 severley hit the socio-economy of main parts of Indonesia. As the climate variability is not homogeneous over the whole Archipelago of Indonesia, ENSO events cause negative precipitation anomalies of diverse magnitude and uration in different regions. Understanding the hydrology of humid tropical catchments is an essential prerequisite to investigate the impact of climate variability on the catchment hydrology. Together with the quantitative assessment of future water resource changes they are essential tools to develop mitigation strategies on a catchment scale. These results can be integrated into long term Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) strategies. The general objective of this study is to investigate and quantify the impact of ENSO caused climate variability on the water balance and the implications for water resources of a mesoscale tropical catchment.

Measured daily precipitation sums over Central Sulawesi for the period 1981-1999

Data compiled within the IMPENSO project. The Impact of ENSO on Sustainable Water Management and the Decision-Making Community at a Rainforest Margin in Indonesia (IMPENSO), http://www.gwdg.de/~impenso, was a German-Indonesian research project (2003-2007) that has studied the impact of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) on the water resources and the agricultural production in the PALU RIVER watershed in Central Sulawesi. ENSO is a climate variability that causes serious droughts in Indonesia and other countries of South-East Asia. The last ENSO event occurred in 1997. As in other regions, many farmers in Central Sulawesi suffered from reduced crop yields and lost their livestock. A better prediction of ENSO and the development of coping strategies would help local communities mitigate the impact of ENSO on rural livelihoods and food security. The IMPENSO project deals with the impact of the climate variability ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on water resource management and the local communities in the Palu River watershed of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The project consists of three interrelated sub-projects, which study the local and regional manifestation of ENSO using the Regional Climate Models REMO and GESIMA (Sub-project A), quantify the impact of ENSO on the availability of water for agriculture and other uses, using the distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Sub-project B), and analyze the socio-economic impact and the policy implications of ENSO on the basis of a production function analysis, a household vulnerability analysis, and a linear programming model (Sub-project C). The models used in the three sub-projects will be integrated to simulate joint scenarios that are defined in collaboration with local stakeholders and are relevant for the design of coping strategies.

The accretion environment in Vela X-1 during a flaring period using XMM-Newton

We present analysis of 100 ks contiguous XMM-Newton data of the prototypical wind accretor Vela X-1. The observation covered eclipse egress between orbital phases 0.134 and 0.265, during which a giant flare took place, enabling us to study the spectral properties both outside and during the flare. This giant flare with a peak luminosity of 3.92+0.42-0.09 × 1037 erg s-1 allows estimates of the physical parameters of the accreted structure with a mass of ~1021 g. We have been able to model several contributions to the observed spectrum with a phenomenological model formed by three absorbed power laws plus three emission lines. After analysing the variations with orbital phase of the column density of each component, as well as those in the Fe and Ni fluorescence lines, we provide a physical interpretation for each spectral component. Meanwhile, the first two components are two aspects of the principal accretion component from the surface of the neutron star, the third component seems to be the X-ray light echo formed in the stellar wind of the companion.