Leverage and beliefs: Personal experience and risk taking in margin lending

What determines risk-bearing capacity and the amount of leverage in financial markets? Thispaper uses unique micro-data on collateralized lending contracts during a period of financialdistress to address this question. An investor syndicate speculating in English stocks wentbankrupt in 1772. Using hand-collected information from Dutch notarial archives, we examinechanges in lenders' behavior following exposure to potential (but not actual) losses. Before thedistress episode, financiers that lent to the ill-fated syndicate were indistinguishable from therest. Afterwards, they behaved differently: they lent with much higher haircuts. Only lendersexposed to the failed syndicate altered their behavior. The differential change is remarkable sincethe distress was public knowledge, and because none of the lenders suffered actual losses ? allfinanciers were repaid in full. Interest rates were also unaffected; the market balanced solelythrough changes in collateral requirements. Our findings are consistent with a heterogeneousbeliefs-interpretation of leverage. They also suggest that individual experience can modify thelevel of leverage in a market quickly.

Note préliminaire sur la structure, la phénologie et le régime alimentaire d'une super-colonie de formica lugubris zett

Formica lugubris apparaît comme une espèce hautement polycalique dans le Jura suisse et forme des super-colonies. La super-colonie étudiée comprend environ 1200 nids répartis sur 70 hectares. L'étude détaillée de 12 hectares permet de définir 4 types de nids:les nids principaux, secondaires, saisonniers etcommençants, ainsi que trois sortes de voies de communication:les routes de liaisons permanentes visibles sur le terrain, les pistes de liaisons non-permanentes non marquées sur le terrain etles chemins d'approvisionnement permanents marqués dans le terrain. L'auteur présente la phénologie deF. lugubris qui est fortement influencée par le climat de cette région avec une période moyenne d'activité de 150 jours. D'autre part, les premières données sur le régime alimentaire (analyse des proies récoltées par les fourmis) diffèrent considérablement des données connues pour les autres espèces du groupe rufa, notamment par le nombre élevé de pucerons, d'où l'idée d'une régulation des populations de pucerons par les fourmis. Enfin l'auteur aborde le problème de la faible densité de l'avifaune en relation avec les fourmis. Il semble que le climat et les ressources alimentaires conduisent les fourmis àune nouvelle stratégie écologique qui s'exprimerait par la création de super-colonies. Formica lugubris appears as a highly polycalic species in the Swiss Jura and creates super-colonies. The super-colony studied possesses about 1200 nests on about 70 hectares. The detailed study of 12 hectares allows the discrimination of 4 types of nests:the main nests, the secondary nests, the seasonal nests andthe starting nests, as well as 3 types of ant tracks:the constant connection routes visible on the soil, thenon-constant connection tracks not marked on the soil andthe constant foraging routes marked on the soil. The author presents the phenology ofF. lugubris who is strongly influenced by the climate of the region with a mean activity period of about 150 days. On the other hand, the first results about diet (analysis of the preys collected by the ants) differ considerably from the wellknown data for the others species of the rufa group, especially by the high number of aphids, which may be inferred the notion of a regulation of aphids population by the ants. Finally the author approaches the problem of the low density of avifauna in relation to the ants. It seems that climate and food resources lead the ants toa new ecological strategy which would express itself by the creation of super-colonies.

Brief alcohol intervention as pragmatic intervention: Who is voluntarily taking an offered intervention?

Brief alcohol interventions (BAI) have shown the potential to decrease problematic alcohol use among adolescents and young adults. Most of the BAI studies have been efficacy trials designed to achieve high internal validity but have raised questions regarding the feasibility of large-scale implementation. Providing interventions for those voluntarily wanting them might offer an alternative, and studies using this design would be more similar to effectiveness studies. The present research compares randomly selected 20-year-old men who took part in a scientific trial (efficacy) with those who voluntarily sought an intervention (effectiveness). Sampling took place during army recruitment procedures that are mandatory for all males in Switzerland. At-risk drinking (20+ drinks per week, or more than one risky drinking occasion of 6+ drinks per month) was determined a posteriori; there was no screening. There were a higher percentage of at-risk drinkers in the volunteer arm at baseline, but at-risk drinkers did not differ from those in the trial arm on any of the assessed alcohol measures. This suggests that offering BAI on a large-scale, voluntary basis may reach at-risk drinkers as effectively as do more scientifically oriented trials, without needing to adhere to screening and stringent research procedures. Nevertheless, BAI was more effective for at-risk drinkers who were invited for trial participation versus those who volunteered. This could be due to behavior that is already consolidated and is difficult to change. Lacking further modifications, real-world implementations of BAI for young men may be less effective than randomized controlled trials designed to test the efficacy of BAI.

A note on the Lorenz-maximal allocations in the imputation set

In this note we introduce the Lorenz stable set and provide an axiomatic characterization in terms of constrained egalitarianism and projection consistency. On the domain of all coalitional games, we find that this solution connects the weak constrained egalitarian solution (Dutta and Ray, 1989) with their strong counterpart (Dutta and Ray, 1991)