C-reactive protein in early risk assessment in acute pancreatitis

ABSTRACT:C-reactive protein (CRP) has been widely used in the early risk assessment of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), but unclear aspects about its prognostic accuracy in this setting persist. This project evaluated first CRP prognostic accuracy for severity, pancreatic necrosis (PNec), and in-hospital mortality (IM) in AP in terms of the best timing for CRP measurement and the optimal CRP cutoff points. Secondly it was evaluated the CRP measured at approximately 24 hours after hospital admission (CRP24) prognostic accuracy for IM in AP individually and in a combined model with a recent developed tool for the early risk assessment of patients with AP, the Bedside Index for Severity in AP (BISAP). Two single-centre retrospective cohort studies were held. The first study included 379 patients and the second study included 134 patients. Statistical methods such as the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, the net reclassification improvement, and the integrated discrimination improvement were used. It was found that CRP measured at approximately 48 hours after hospital admission (CRP48) had a prognostic accuracy for severity, PNec, and IM in AP better than CRP measured at any other timing. It was observed that the optimal CRP48 cutoff points for severity, PNec, and IM in AP varied from 170mg/l to 190mg/l, values greater than the one most often recommended in the literature – 150mg/l. It was found that CRP24 had a good prognostic accuracy for IM in AP and that the cutoff point of 60mg/l had a negative predictive value of 100%. Finally it was observed that the prognostic accuracy of a combined model including BISAP and CRP24 for IM in AP could perform better than the BISAP alone model. These results might have a direct impact on the early risk assessment of patients with AP in the daily clinical practice.--------- RESUMO: A proteina c-reactiva (CRP) tem sido largamente usada na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com pancreatite aguda (AP), mas aspectos duvidosos acerca do seu valor prognóstico neste contexto persistem. Este projecto avaliou primeiro o valor prognóstico da CRP para a gravidade, a necrose pancreática (PNec) e a mortalidade intra-hospitalar (IM) na AP em termos do melhor momento para efectuar a sua medição e dos seus pontos-de-corte óptimos. Em segundo lugar foi avaliado o valor prognóstico da proteína c-reactiva medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) para a IM na AP isoladamente e num modelo combinado, que incluiu uma ferramenta de avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP recentemente desenvolvida, o Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP). Dois estudos unicêntricos de coorte retrospectivo foram realizados. O primeiro estudo incluiu 379 doentes e o segundo estudo incluiu 134 doentes. Metodologias estatísticas como o teste de Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, a area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, o net reclassification improvement e o integrated discrimination improvement foram usadas. Verificou-se que a CRP medida às 48 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP48) teve um valor prognóstico para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP melhor do que a CRP medida em qualquer outro momento. Observou-se que os pontos de corte óptimos da CRP48 para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP variaram entre 170mg/l e 190mg/l, valores acima do valor mais frequentemente recomendado na literatura – 150mg/l. Verificou-se que a CRP medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) teve um bom valor prognóstico para a IM na AP e que o ponto de corte 60mg/l teve um valor preditivo negativo de 100%. Finalmente observou-se que o valor prognóstico de um modelo combinado incluindo o BISAP e a CRP24 para a IM na AP pode ter um desempenho melhor do que o do BISAP isoladamente. Estes resultados podem ter um impacto directo na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP na prática clínica diária.

The influence of use additives on nitrous oxide emission during swine slurry composting.

use of additives (Mg/P and nitrification inhibitor dicyandiamide - DCD), on nitrous oxide emission during swine slurry composting. The experiment was run in duplicate; the gas was monitored for 30 days in different treatments (control, DCD, Mg/P and DCD + Mg/P). Nitrous oxide emissions rate (mg of N2O-N.day-1) and the accumulated emissions were calculated to compare the treatments. Results has shown that emissions of N-N2O were reduced by approximately 70, 46 and 96% through the additions of DCD, MgCl2.6H2O + H3PO4 and both additives, respectively, compared to the control. Keywords Composting; swine slurry; additives; nitrous

Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

O impacto da gestão de fundo de maneio na rendibilidade das empresas durante a crise financeira: evidência europeia

Dissertação de mestrado em Finanças

A cohort-based analysis of the evolution of lifetime prevalence of recourse to prostitution by men in the general population of Switzerland, 1987-2000

Background: Despite their relevance to the prevention of sexually transmitted infections, there are few data on the frequency of recourse to prostitution in the male population in Switzerland. Using data gathered for the evaluation of the Swiss AIDS prevention strategy, we analysed net aggregate change and cohort-based change in lifetime prevalence of recourse to prostitution. Methods: Seven repeated cross-sectional telephone surveys of the general population aged 17-45 years (17-30 years only for the 1987 and 1988 surveys) were undertaken from 1987 to 2000 providing information on sexual behaviour including men's recourse to prostitution (total n¼9318). Age categories were: 17-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40 and 41-45 years. Prevalence at 17-30 years was available in all surveys and prevalence at 41-45 was available for 1989-2000, though not for the same cohorts. Intra-cohort increase in prevalence over 10 years was analysed using truncated information for cohorts aged 21-25 and 26-30 years in 1987 and 1990. Population estimates were computed with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: No net change occurred in the 17-45 years male population prevalence between 1989 (17.6%, CI ¼ 15.4; 20.0) and 2000 (17.7%, CI ¼ 15.6; 20.0). The median starting prevalence of recourse to prostitution at age 17-20 was 4.8% (in 1989, CI ¼ 2.0; 9.7) and the range was from 1.8 (in 1994) to 10.4% (in 1990). The median ending prevalence at age 41-45 was 21.9% (in 1994, CI 16.7; 27.9) and the range was from 17.9 (in 2000) to 26.1% (in 1992). No clear trend was observed in either starting or ending prevalence. Intra-cohort evolution of the 1997 and 1990 cohorts was very similar. Conclusions: Based on available data, there was no net (aggregate) change in the prevalence of recourse to prostitution by males in Switzerland between 1989 and 2000. Within the time frame available, intra-cohort evolution was also very similar.

Effects of environmental temperature on life tables of Rhodnius neivai Lent, 1953 (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) under experimental conditions

Changes in life tables of Rhodnius neivai due to variations of environmental temperature were studied, based on nine cohorts. Three cohorts were kept at 22°C, three at 27°C and three at 32°C. Cohorts were censused daily during nymphal instars and weekly in adults. Nine complete horizontal life tables were built. A high negative correlation between temperature and age at first laying was registered (r=-0,84). Age at maximum reproduction was significantly lower at 32°C. Average number of eggs/female/week and total eggs/female on its life time were significantly lower at 22°C. Total number of egg by cohort and total number of reproductive weeks were significantly higher at 27°C. At 32°C, generational time was significantly lower. At 27°C net reproductive rate and total reproductive value were significantly higher. At 22°C, intrinsic growth, finite growth and finite birth rates were significantly lower. At 22°C, death instantaneous rate was significantly higher.

Gestió Acadèmica d'un centre de formació

L'objectiu principal d'aquest TFC és el desenvolupament d'una aplicació completa i funcional amb un caire professional fent servir la plataforma .NET i emprant la major part de les seves tecnologies més importants (ASP.NET, ADO.NET, formularis Web i Windows).

Aplicació web per a un casino online

L'objectiu del projecte es basa principalment en la realització d'una aplicació fent servir els coneixements adquirits al llarg de la carrera, emmarcats dins l'àmbit de les tecnologies oferides per la plataforma Microsoft .NET. Més concretament i d'acord amb l'àrea escollida, l'objectiu funcional es centra en una aplicació web per a un casino virtual, que permeti el registre, l'autenticació i el manteniment d'usuaris, i ofereixi a aquests un àrea de jocs.Com a objectius no funcionals, es planteja la utilització de la tecnologia ASP.NET, la plataforma Silverlight, i AJAX com a tècnica de desenvolupament web.

Gestió de tasques informàtiques

TFC de gestió de tasques informàtiques desenvolupada en ASP.NET MVC 3 i Windows Phone 7

Demographic fitness of Belminus ferroae (Hemiptera: Triatominae) on three different hosts under laboratory conditions

Triatominae are widely recognised for their role as vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi. One of the main biological characteristics of this subfamily is their obligate haematophagous condition. However, previous studies on Belminus herreri and Belminus ferroae suggested that cockroaches are their principal hosts in domiciles. Due to this peculiar behaviour, the aim of this study was to analyse several demographic and reproductive parameters of B. ferroae fed on three different hosts (mice, cockroaches and Rhodnius prolixus) and relate B. ferroae fitness to these alternative hosts. The cohorts were reared under constant conditions. The egg hatching rate was similar for cohorts fed on cockroaches (69.4%) and R. prolixus (63.8%), but was much lower for the cohort fed on mice (16%). The development time from the nymph to adult stage and the average age of first reproduction (α) presented lower values in the cohort fed on cockroaches, which is consistent with the higher population growth rate associated with this host. Demographic parameters [intrinsic rate of natural increase, finite rate of population growth, net reproductive rate and damping ratio] showed statistically significant differences between the cohorts. Analysis of the life history of B. ferroae revealed a higher fitness related to the cockroach. The implications of these results for the origin of the subfamily are discussed.

Farm-Level Analysis of Risk Management Proposals, March 2000

This paper presents a detailed report of the representative farm analysis (summarized in FAPRI Policy Working Paper #01-00). At the request of several members of the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry of the U.S. Senate, we have continued to analyze the impacts of the Farmers’ Risk Management Act of 1999 (S. 1666) and the Risk Management for the 21st Century Act (S. 1580). Earlier analysis reported in FAPRI Policy Working Paper #04-99 concentrated on the aggregate net farm income and government outlay impacts. The representative farm analysis is conducted for several types of farms, including both irrigated and non-irrigated cotton farms in Tom Green County, Texas; dryland wheat farms in Morton County, North Dakota and Sumner County, Kansas; and a corn farm in Webster County, Iowa. We consider additional factors that may shed light on the differential impacts of the two plans. 1. Farm-level income impacts under alternative weather scenarios. 2. Additional indirect impacts, such as a change in ability to obtain financing. 3. Implications of within-year price shocks. Our results indicate that farmers who buy crop insurance will increase their coverage levels under S. 1580. Farmers with high yield risk find that the 65 percent coverage level maximizes expected returns, but some who feel that they obtain other benefits from higher coverage will find that the S. 1580 subsidy schedule significantly lowers the cost of obtaining the additional coverage. Farmers with lower yield risk find that the increased indemnities from additional coverage will more than offset the increase in producer premium. In addition, because S. 1580 extends its increased premium subsidy percentages to revenue insurance products, farmers will have an increased incentive to buy revenue insurance. Differences in the ancillary benefits from crop insurance under the baseline and S. 1580 would be driven by the increase in insurance participation and buy-up. Given the same levels of insurance participation and buy-up, the ancillary benefits under the two scenarios would be the same.

Pharmacological inhibition of fibroblast growth factor (FGF) receptor signaling ameliorates FGF23-mediated hypophosphatemic rickets.

Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) is a circulating factor secreted by osteocytes that is essential for phosphate homeostasis. In kidney proximal tubular cells FGF23 inhibits phosphate reabsorption and leads to decreased synthesis and enhanced catabolism of 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 (1,25[OH]2 D3 ). Excess levels of FGF23 cause renal phosphate wasting and suppression of circulating 1,25(OH)2 D3 levels and are associated with several hereditary hypophosphatemic disorders with skeletal abnormalities, including X-linked hypophosphatemic rickets (XLH) and autosomal recessive hypophosphatemic rickets (ARHR). Currently, therapeutic approaches to these diseases are limited to treatment with activated vitamin D analogues and phosphate supplementation, often merely resulting in partial correction of the skeletal aberrations. In this study, we evaluate the use of FGFR inhibitors for the treatment of FGF23-mediated hypophosphatemic disorders using NVP-BGJ398, a novel selective, pan-specific FGFR inhibitor currently in Phase I clinical trials for cancer therapy. In two different hypophosphatemic mouse models, Hyp and Dmp1-null mice, resembling the human diseases XLH and ARHR, we find that pharmacological inhibition of FGFRs efficiently abrogates aberrant FGF23 signaling and normalizes the hypophosphatemic and hypocalcemic conditions of these mice. Correspondingly, long-term FGFR inhibition in Hyp mice leads to enhanced bone growth, increased mineralization, and reorganization of the disturbed growth plate structure. We therefore propose NVP-BGJ398 treatment as a novel approach for the therapy of FGF23-mediated hypophosphatemic diseases.

Building a Social Accounting Matrix within the ESA95 Framework: Obtaining a Dataset for Applied General Equilibrium Modelling

This research provides a description of the process followed in order to assemble a "Social Accounting Matrix" for Spain corresponding to the year 2000 (SAMSP00). As argued in the paper, this process attempts to reconcile ESA95 conventions with requirements of applied general equilibrium modelling. Particularly, problems related to the level of aggregation of net taxation data, and to the valuation system used for expressing the monetary value of input-output transactions have deserved special attention. Since the adoption of ESA95 conventions, input-output transactions have been preferably valued at basic prices, which impose additional difficulties on modellers interested in computing applied general equilibrium models. This paper addresses these difficulties by developing a procedure that allows SAM-builders to change the valuation system of input-output transactions conveniently. In addition, this procedure produces new data related to net taxation information.

FY2008 Annual Summary July 1, 2007 - June 30, 2008

It’s really quite simple. IPERS is a sure thing. IPERS benefits carry a lifetime guarantee. A bad economy and declining stock market do not decrease your benefits. Instead, your benefit amount is determined by a pre-established formula that replaces a percentage of your pre-retirement wages. How close your benefits get to the maximum of the IPERS plan—replacing 65 percent of pre-retirement wages or 72 percent for public safety personnel—is mostly up to you. Current employees don’t have to worry about where to invest or what to do when there is a slump in the stock market. Retirees don’t have to worry that a down market will reduce their monthly payments, and they never have to worry about outliving their IPERS benefits. Disability payments and death benefits act as a safety net for members and their families.

SOIL QUALITY IN RELATION TO FOREST CONVERSION TO PERENNIAL OR ANNUAL CROPPING IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Many forested areas have been converted to intensive agricultural use to satisfy food, fiber, and forage production for a growing world population. There is great interest in evaluating forest conversion to cultivated land because this conversion adversely affects several soil properties. We examined soil microbial, physical, and chemical properties in an Oxisol (Latossolo Vermelho distrófico) of southern Brazil 24 years after forest conversion to a perennial crop with coffee or annual grain crops (maize and soybeans) in conventional tillage or no-tillage. One goal was to determine which soil quality parameters seemed most sensitive to change. A second goal was to test the hypothesis that no-tillage optimized preservation of soil quality indicators in annual cropping systems on converted land. Land use significantly affected microbial biomass and its activity, C and N mineralization, and aggregate stability by depth. Cultivated sites had lower microbial biomass and mineralizable C and N than a forest used as control. The forest and no-tillage sites had higher microbial biomass and mineralizable C and N than the conventional tillage site, and the metabolic quotient was 65 and 43 % lower, respectively. Multivariate analysis of soil microbial properties showed a clear separation among treatments, displaying a gradient from conventional tillage to forest. Although the soil at the coffee site was less disturbed and had a high organic C content, the microbial activity was low, probably due to greater soil acidity and Al toxicity. Under annual cropping, microbial activity in no-tillage was double that of the conventional tillage management. The greater microbial activity in forest and no-tillage sites may be attributed, at least partially, to lower soil disturbance. Reducing soil disturbance is important for soil C sequestration and microbial activity, although control of soil pH and Al toxicity are also essential to maintain the soil microbial activity high.