A multi-scale analysis of transforming agricultural markets in the context of globalization: implications for natural resources, food prices and rural poverty in Latin America

Vivimos una época en la que el mundo se transforma aceleradamente. La globalización está siguiendo un curso imparable, la población mundial así como la población urbana siguen creciendo, y en los países emergentes los ingresos promedios aumentan, resultando en un cambio también acelerado de las dietas y hábitos alimentarios. En conjunto esos factores están causando un aumento fundamental de la demanda de alimentos. Junto con la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, estos procesos han provocado un crecimiento del comercio internacional de alimentos durante la última década. Dado que muchos países de América Latina están dotados de abundancia de recursos naturales, estas tendencias han producido un crecimiento rápido de las exportaciones de bienes primarios desde América Latina al resto del mundo. En sólo 30 años la participación en el mercado agrícola de América Latina casi se ha duplicado, desde 10% en 1980 a 18% en 2010. Este aumento del comercio agrícola ha dado lugar a un debate sobre una serie de cuestiones cruciales relacionadas con los impactos del comercio en la seguridad alimentaria mundial, en el medio ambiente o en la reducción de la pobreza rural en países en desarrollo. Esta tesis aplica un marco integrado para analizar varios impactos relacionados con la transformación de los mercados agrícolas y los mercados rurales debidos a la globalización y, en particular, al progresivo aumento del comercio internacional. En concreto, la tesis aborda los siguientes temas: En primer lugar, la producción mundial de alimentos tendrá que aumentar considerablemente para poder satisfacer la demanda de una población mundial de 9000 millones personas en 2050, lo cual plantea grandes desafíos sobre los sistemas de la producción de alimentos. Alcanzar este logro, sin comprometer la integridad del medio ambiente en regiones exportadoras, es un reto aún mayor. En este contexto, la tesis analiza los efectos de la liberalización del comercio mundial, considerando distintas tecnologías de producción agraria, sobre unos indicadores de seguridad alimentaria en diferentes regiones del mundo y sobre distintos indicadores ambientales, teniendo en cuenta escalas diferentes en América Latina y el Caribe. La tesis utiliza el modelo “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)” – un modelo dinámico de equilibrio parcial del sector agrícola a escala global – para modelar la apertura de los mercados agrícolas así como diferentes escenarios de la producción hasta el año 2050. Los resultados del modelo están vinculados a modelos biofísicos para poder evaluar los cambios en la huella hídrica y la calidad del agua, así como para cuantificar los impactos del cambio en el uso del suelo sobre la biodiversidad y los stocks de carbono en 2050. Los resultados indican que la apertura de los mercados agrícolas es muy importante para mejorar la seguridad alimentaria a nivel mundial, sin embargo, produce también presiones ambientales indeseables en algunas regiones de América Latina. Contrastando dos escenarios que consideran distintas modos de producción, la expansión de la tierra agrícola frente a un escenario de la producción más intensiva, se demuestra que las mejoras de productividad son generalmente superiores a la expansión de las tierras agrícolas, desde un punto de vista económico e ambiental. En cambio, los escenarios de intensificación sostenible no sólo hacen posible una mayor producción de alimentos, sino que también generan menos impactos medioambientales que los otros escenarios futuros en todas sus dimensiones: biodiversidad, carbono, emisiones de nitratos y uso del agua. El análisis muestra que hay un “trade-off” entre el objetivo de alcanzar la sostenibilidad ambiental y el objetivo de la seguridad alimentaria, independiente del manejo agrícola en el futuro. En segundo lugar, a la luz de la reciente crisis de los precios de alimentos en los años 2007/08, la tesis analiza los impactos de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas en la transmisión de precios de los alimentos en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y el Perú. Para identificar las posibles relaciones de cointegración entre los índices de precios al consumidor de alimentos y los índices de precios de agrarios internacionales, sujetos a diferentes grados de apertura de mercados agrícolas en los seis países de América Latina, se utiliza un modelo simple de corrección de error (single equation error correction). Los resultados indican que la integración global de los mercados agrícolas ha dado lugar a diferentes tasas de transmisión de precios en los países investigados. Sobre todo en el corto plazo, las tasas de transmisión dependen del grado de apertura comercial, mientras que en el largo plazo las tasas de transmisión son elevadas, pero en gran medida independientes del régimen de comercio. Por lo tanto, durante un período de shocks de precios mundiales una mayor apertura del comercio trae consigo más inestabilidad de los precios domésticos a corto plazo y la resultante persistencia en el largo plazo. Sin embargo, estos resultados no verifican necesariamente la utilidad de las políticas comerciales, aplicadas frecuentemente por los gobiernos para amortiguar los shocks de precios. Primero, porque existe un riesgo considerable de volatilidad de los precios debido a cambios bruscos de la oferta nacional si se promueve la autosuficiencia en el país; y segundo, la política de proteccionismo asume el riesgo de excluir el país de participar en las cadenas de suministro de alto valor del sector agrícola, y por lo tanto esa política podría obstaculizar el desarrollo económico. Sin embargo, es indispensable establecer políticas efectivas para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares a los aumentos repentinos de precios de alimentos, lo cual requiere una planificación gubernamental precisa con el presupuesto requerido disponible. En tercer lugar, la globalización afecta a la estructura de una economía y, por medios distintos, la distribución de los ingreso en un país. Perú sirve como ejemplo para investigar más profundamente las cuestiones relacionadas con los cambios en la distribución de los ingresos en zonas rurales. Perú, que es un país que está cada vez más integrado en los mercados mundiales, consiguió importantes descensos en la pobreza extrema en sus zonas rurales, pero a la vez adolece de alta incidencia de pobreza moderada y de desigualdad de los ingresos en zonas rural al menos durante el periodo comprendido entre 2004 y 2012. Esta parte de la tesis tiene como objetivo identificar las fuerzas impulsoras detrás de estas dinámicas en el Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de microsimulación basado en modelos de generación de ingresos aplicado a nivel los hogares rurales. Los resultados indican que la fuerza principal detrás de la reducción de la pobreza ha sido el crecimiento económico general de la economía, debido a las condiciones macroeconómicas favorables durante el periodo de estudio. Estos efectos de crecimiento beneficiaron a casi todos los sectores rurales, y dieron lugar a la disminución de la pobreza rural extrema, especialmente entre los agricultores de papas y de maíz. En parte, estos agricultores probablemente se beneficiaron de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, que es lo que podría haber provocado un aumento de los precios al productor en tiempos de altos precios mundiales de los alimentos. Sin embargo, los resultados también sugieren que para una gran parte de la población más pobre existían barreras de entrada a la hora de poder participar en el empleo asalariado fuera de la agricultura o en la producción de cultivos de alto valor. Esto podría explicarse por la falta de acceso a unos activos importantes: por ejemplo, el nivel de educación de los pobres era apenas mejor en 2012 que en 2004; y también las dotaciones de tierra y de mano de obra, sobre todo de los productores pobres de maíz y patata, disminuyeron entre 2004 y 2012. Esto lleva a la conclusión de que aún hay margen para aplicar políticas para facilitar el acceso a estos activos, que podría contribuir a la erradicación de la pobreza rural. La tesis concluye que el comercio agrícola puede ser un importante medio para abastecer una población mundial creciente y más rica con una cantidad suficiente de calorías. Para evitar adversos efectos ambientales e impactos negativos para los consumidores y de los productores pobres, el enfoque debe centrarse en las mejoras de la productividad agrícola, teniendo en cuenta los límites ambientales y ser socialmente inclusivo. En este sentido, será indispensable seguir desarrollando soluciones tecnológicas que garanticen prácticas de producción agrícola minimizando el uso de recursos naturales. Además, para los pequeños pobres agricultores será fundamental eliminar las barreras de entrada a los mercados de exportación que podría tener efectos indirectos favorables a través de la adopción de nuevas tecnologías alcanzables a través de mercados internacionales. ABSTRACT The world is in a state of rapid transition. Ongoing globalization, population growth, rising living standards and increasing urbanization, accompanied by changing dietary patterns throughout the world, are increasing the demand for food. Together with more open trade regimes, this has triggered growing international agricultural trade during the last decade. For many Latin American countries, which are gifted with relative natural resource abundance, these trends have fueled rapid export growth of primary goods. In just 30 years, the Latin American agricultural market share has almost doubled from 10% in 1980 to 18% in 2010. These market developments have given rise to a debate around a number of crucial issues related to the role of agricultural trade for global food security, for the environment or for poverty reduction in developing countries. This thesis uses an integrated framework to analyze a broad array of possible impacts related to transforming agricultural and rural markets in light of globalization, and in particular of increasing trade activity. Specifically, the following issues are approached: First, global food production will have to rise substantially by the year 2050 to meet effective demand of a nine billion people world population which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity in exporting regions is an even greater challenge. In this context, the thesis explores the effects of future global trade liberalization on food security indicators in different world regions and on a variety of environmental indicators at different scales in Latin America and the Caribbean, in due consideration of different future agricultural production practices. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) –a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)– is applied to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050. Model results are linked to biophysical models, used to assess changes in water footprints and water quality, as well as impacts on biodiversity and carbon stocks from land use change by 2050. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Most promising for achieving food security and environmental goals, in equal measure, is the sustainable intensification scenario. However, the analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. Second, in light of the recent food price crisis of 2007/08, the thesis looks at the impacts of increasing agricultural market integration on food price transmission from global to domestic markets in six Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. To identify possible cointegrating relationships between the domestic food consumer price indices and world food price levels, subject to different degrees of agricultural market integration in the six Latin American countries, a single equation error correction model is used. Results suggest that global agricultural market integration has led to different levels of price path-through in the studied countries. Especially in the short-run, transmission rates depend on the degree of trade openness, while in the long-run transmission rates are high, but largely independent of the country-specific trade regime. Hence, under world price shocks more trade openness brings with it more price instability in the short-term and the resulting persistence in the long-term. However, these findings do not necessarily verify the usefulness of trade policies, often applied by governments to buffer such price shocks. First, because there is a considerable risk of price volatility due to domestic supply shocks if self-sufficiency is promoted. Second, protectionism bears the risk of excluding a country from participating in beneficial high-value agricultural supply chains, thereby hampering economic development. Nevertheless, to reduce households’ vulnerability to sudden and large increases of food prices, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. Third, globalization affects the structure of an economy and, by different means, the distribution of income in a country. Peru serves as an example to dive deeper into questions related to changes in the income distribution in rural areas. Peru, a country being increasingly integrated into global food markets, experienced large drops in extreme rural poverty, but persistently high rates of moderate rural poverty and rural income inequality between 2004 and 2012. The thesis aims at disentangling the driving forces behind these dynamics by using a microsimulation model based on rural household income generation models. Results provide evidence that the main force behind poverty reduction was overall economic growth of the economy due to generally favorable macroeconomic market conditions. These growth effects benefited almost all rural sectors, and led to declines in extreme rural poverty, especially among potato and maize farmers. In part, these farmers probably benefited from policy changes towards more open trade regimes and the resulting higher producer prices in times of elevated global food price levels. However, the results also suggest that entry barriers existed for the poorer part of the population to participate in well-paid wage-employment outside of agriculture or in high-value crop production. This could be explained by a lack of sufficient access to important rural assets. For example, poor people’s educational attainment was hardly better in 2012 than in 2004. Also land and labor endowments, especially of (poor) maize and potato growers, rather decreased than increased over time. This leads to the conclusion that there is still scope for policy action to facilitate access to these assets, which could contribute to the eradication of rural poverty. The thesis concludes that agricultural trade can be one important means to provide a growing and richer world population with sufficient amounts of calories. To avoid adverse environmental effects and negative impacts for poor food consumers and producers, the focus should lie on agricultural productivity improvements, considering environmental limits and be socially inclusive. In this sense, it will be crucial to further develop technological solutions that guarantee resource-sparing agricultural production practices, and to remove entry barriers for small poor farmers to export markets which might allow for technological spill-over effects from high-value global agricultural supply chains.

Inactivating mutations in an SH2 domain-encoding gene in X-linked lymphoproliferative syndrome

X-linked lymphoproliferative syndrome (XLP) is an inherited immunodeficiency characterized by increased susceptibility to Epstein–Barr virus (EBV). In affected males, primary EBV infection leads to the uncontrolled proliferation of virus-containing B cells and reactive cytotoxic T cells, often culminating in the development of high-grade lymphoma. The XLP gene has been mapped to chromosome band Xq25 through linkage analysis and the discovery of patients harboring large constitutional genomic deletions. We describe here the presence of small deletions and intragenic mutations that specifically disrupt a gene named DSHP in 6 of 10 unrelated patients with XLP. This gene encodes a predicted protein of 128 amino acids composing a single SH2 domain with extensive homology to the SH2 domain of SHIP, an inositol polyphosphate 5-phosphatase that functions as a negative regulator of lymphocyte activation. DSHP is expressed in transformed T cell lines and is induced following in vitro activation of peripheral blood T lymphocytes. Expression of DSHP is restricted in vivo to lymphoid tissues, and RNA in situ hybridization demonstrates DSHP expression in activated T and B cell regions of reactive lymph nodes and in both T and B cell neoplasms. These observations confirm the identity of DSHP as the gene responsible for XLP, and suggest a role in the regulation of lymphocyte activation and proliferation. Induction of DSHP may sustain the immune response by interfering with SHIP-mediated inhibition of lymphocyte activation, while its inactivation in XLP patients results in a selective immunodeficiency to EBV.

Negative Factor from SIV Binds to the Catalytic Subunit of the V-ATPase to Internalize CD4 and to Increase Viral Infectivity

The accessory protein negative factor (Nef) from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) is required for optimal viral infectivity and the progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Nef interacts with the endocytic machinery, resulting in the down-regulation of cluster of differentiation antigen 4 (CD4) and major histocompatibility complex class I (MHCI) molecules on the surface of infected cells. Mutations in the C-terminal flexible loop of Nef result in a lower rate of internalization by this viral protein. However, no loop-dependent binding of Nef to adaptor protein-2 (AP-2), which is the adaptor protein complex that is required for the internalization of proteins from the plasma membrane, could be demonstrated. In this study we investigated the relevance of different motifs in Nef from SIVmac239 for its internalization, CD4 down-regulation, binding to components of the trafficking machinery, and viral infectivity. Our data suggest that the binding of Nef to the catalytic subunit H of the vacuolar membrane ATPase (V-ATPase) facilitates its internalization. This binding depends on the integrity of the whole flexible loop. Subsequent studies on Nef mutant viruses revealed that the flexible loop is essential for optimal viral infectivity. Therefore, our data demonstrate how Nef contacts the endocytic machinery in the absence of its direct binding to AP-2 and suggest an important role for subunit H of the V-ATPase in viral infectivity.

Evolutionary genomics of Staphylococcus aureus: Insights into the origin of methicillin-resistant strains and the toxic shock syndrome epidemic

An emerging theme in medical microbiology is that extensive variation exists in gene content among strains of many pathogenic bacterial species. However, this topic has not been investigated on a genome scale with strains recovered from patients with well-defined clinical conditions. Staphylococcus aureus is a major human pathogen and also causes economically important infections in cows and sheep. A DNA microarray representing >90% of the S. aureus genome was used to characterize genomic diversity, evolutionary relationships, and virulence gene distribution among 36 strains of divergent clonal lineages, including methicillin-resistant strains and organisms causing toxic shock syndrome. Genetic variation in S. aureus is very extensive, with ≈22% of the genome comprised of dispensable genetic material. Eighteen large regions of difference were identified, and 10 of these regions have genes that encode putative virulence factors or proteins mediating antibiotic resistance. We find that lateral gene transfer has played a fundamental role in the evolution of S. aureus. The mec gene has been horizontally transferred into distinct S. aureus chromosomal backgrounds at least five times, demonstrating that methicillin-resistant strains have evolved multiple independent times, rather than from a single ancestral strain. This finding resolves a long-standing controversy in S. aureus research. The epidemic of toxic shock syndrome that occurred in the 1970s was caused by a change in the host environment, rather than rapid geographic dissemination of a new hypervirulent strain. DNA microarray analysis of large samples of clinically characterized strains provides broad insights into evolution, pathogenesis, and disease emergence.

A de novo missense mutation of the beta subunit of the epithelial sodium channel causes hypertension and Liddle syndrome, identifying a proline-rich segment critical for regulation of channel activity.

Liddle syndrome is a mendelian form of hypertension characterized by constitutively elevated renal Na reabsorption that can result from activating mutations in the beta or gamma subunit of the epithelial Na channel. All reported mutations have deleted the last 45-76 normal amino acids from the cytoplasmic C terminus of one of these channel subunits. While these findings implicate these terminal segments in the normal negative regulation of channel activity, they do not identify the amino acid residues that are critical targets for these mutations. Potential targets include the short highly conserved Pro-rich segments present in the C terminus of beta and gamma subunits; these segments are similar to SH3-binding domains that mediate protein-protein interaction. We now report a kindred with Liddle syndrome in which affected patients have a mutation in codon 616 of the beta subunit resulting in substitution of a Leu for one of these highly conserved Pro residues. The functional significance of this mutation is demonstrated both by the finding that this is a de novo mutation appearing concordantly with the appearance of Liddle syndrome in the kindred and also by the marked activation of amiloride-sensitive Na channel activity seen in Xenopus oocytes expressing channels containing this mutant subunit (8.8-fold increase compared with control oocytes expressing normal channel subunits; P = 0.003). These findings demonstrate a de novo missense mutation causing Liddle syndrome and identify a critical channel residue important for the normal regulation of Na reabsorption in humans.

A reliable and valid questionnaire was developed to measure computer vision syndrome at the workplace

Objectives: To design and validate a questionnaire to measure visual symptoms related to exposure to computers in the workplace. Study Design and Setting: Our computer vision syndrome questionnaire (CVS-Q) was based on a literature review and validated through discussion with experts and performance of a pretest, pilot test, and retest. Content validity was evaluated by occupational health, optometry, and ophthalmology experts. Rasch analysis was used in the psychometric evaluation of the questionnaire. Criterion validity was determined by calculating the sensitivity and specificity, receiver operator characteristic curve, and cutoff point. Testeretest repeatability was tested using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and concordance by Cohen’s kappa (k). Results: The CVS-Q was developed with wide consensus among experts and was well accepted by the target group. It assesses the frequency and intensity of 16 symptoms using a single rating scale (symptom severity) that fits the Rasch rating scale model well. The questionnaire has sensitivity and specificity over 70% and achieved good testeretest repeatability both for the scores obtained [ICC 5 0.802; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.673, 0.884] and CVS classification (k 5 0.612; 95% CI: 0.384, 0.839). Conclusion: The CVS-Q has acceptable psychometric properties, making it a valid and reliable tool to control the visual health of computer workers, and can potentially be used in clinical trials and outcome research.

The negative rates club. CEPS Commentary, 19 February 2016

For the better part of a decade, central banks have been making only limited headway in curbing powerful global deflationary forces. Since 2008, the US Federal Reserve has maintained zero interest rates, while pursuing multiple waves of unprecedented balance-sheet expansion through large-scale bond purchases. The Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank have followed suit, each with its own version of so-called quantitative easing (QE). Yet inflation has not picked up appreciably anywhere.

Constraining storm-scale forecasts of deep convective initiation with surface weather observations

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Development of a controlled drinking self-efficacy scale and appraising its relation to alcohol dependence

There is no specific self-efficacy measure that has been developed primarily for problem drinkers seeking a moderation drinking goal. In this article, we report the factor structure of a 20-item Controlled Drinking Self-Efficacy Scale (CDSES Sitharthan et al., 1996; Sitharthan et al., 1997). The results indicate that the CDSES is highly reliable, and the factor analysis using the full sample identified four factors: negative affect, positive mood/social context, frequency of drinking, and consumption quantity. A similar factor structure was obtained for the subsample of men. In contrast, only three factors emerged in the analysis of data on female participants. Compared to women, men had low self-efficacy to control their drinking in situations relating to positive mood/social context, and subjects with high alcohol dependence had low self-efficacy for situations relating to negative affect, social situations, and drinking less frequently. The CDSES can be a useful measure in treatment programs providing a moderation drinking goal. (C) 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Fine-scale spatial genetic correlation analyses reveal strong female philopatry within a brush-tailed rock-wallaby colony in southeast Queensland

We combine spatial data on home ranges of individuals and microsatellite markers to examine patterns of fine-scale spatial genetic structure and dispersal within a brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) colony at Hurdle Creek Valley, Queensland. Brush-tailed rock-wallabies were once abundant and widespread throughout the rocky terrain of southeastern Australia; however, populations are nearly extinct in the south of their range and in decline elsewhere. We use pairwise relatedness measures and a recent multilocus spatial autocorrelation analysis to test the hypotheses that in this species, within-colony dispersal is male-biased and that female philopatry results in spatial clusters of related females within the colony. We provide clear evidence for strong female philopatry and male-biased dispersal within this rock-wallaby colony. There was a strong, significant negative correlation between pairwise relatedness and geographical distance of individual females along only 800 m of cliff line. Spatial genetic autocorrelation analyses showed significant positive correlation for females in close proximity to each other and revealed a genetic neighbourhood size of only 600 m for females. Our study is the first to report on the fine-scale spatial genetic structure within a rock-wallaby colony and we provide the first robust evidence for strong female philopatry and spatial clustering of related females within this taxon. We discuss the ecological and conservation implications of our findings for rock-wallabies, as well as the importance of fine-scale spatial genetic patterns in studies of dispersal behaviour.

Incorporating nerve-gliding techniques in the conservative treatment of cubital Tunnel syndrome

Objective: To discuss the diagnosis and treatment of a patient with cubital tunnel syndrome and to illustrate novel treatment modalities for the ulnar nerve and its surrounding structures and target tissues. The rationale for the addition of nerve-gliding techniques will be highlighted. Clinical Features: Two months after onset, a 17-year-old female nursing student who had a traumatic onset of cubital tunnel syndrome still experienced pain around the elbow and paresthesia in the ulnar nerve distribution. Electrodiagnostic tests were negative. Segmental cervicothoracic motion dysfunctions were present which were regarded as contributing factors hindering natural recovery. Intervention and Outcomes: After 6 sessions consisting of nerve-gliding techniques and segmental joint manipulation and a home exercise program consisting of nerve gliding and light free-weight exercises, a substantial improvement was recorded on both the impairment and functional level (pain scales, clinical tests, and Northwick Park Questionnaire). Symptoms did not recur within a 10-month follow-up period, and pain and disability had completely resolved. Conclusions: Movement-based management may be beneficial in the conservative management of cubital tunnel syndrome. As this intervention is in contrast with the traditional recommendation of immobilization, comparing the effects of both interventions in a systematic way is an essential next step to determine the optimal treatment of patients with cubital tunnel syndrome.

Of sheep and rain: large-scale population dynamics of the red kangaroo

1. We analysed time-series data from populations of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus, Desmarest) inhabiting four areas in the pastoral zone of South Australia. We formulated a set of a priori models to disentangle the relative effects of the covariates: rainfall, harvesting, intraspecific competition, and domestic herbivores, on kangaroo population-growth rate. 2. The statistical framework allowed for spatial variation in the growth-rate parameters, response to covariates, and environmental variability, as well as spatially correlated error terms due to shared environment. 3. The most parsimonious model included all covariates but no area-specific parameter values, suggesting that kangaroo densities respond in the same way to the covariates across the areas. 4. The temporal dynamics were spatially correlated, even after taking into account the potentially synchronizing effect of rainfall, harvesting and domestic herbivores. 5. Counter-intuitively, we found a positive rather than negative effect of domestic herbivore density on the population-growth rate of kangaroos. We hypothesize that this effect is caused by sheep and cattle acting as a surrogate for resource availability beyond rainfall. 6. Even though our system is well studied, we must conclude that approximating resources by surrogates such as rainfall is more difficult than previously thought. This is an important message for studies of consumer-resource systems and highlights the need to be explicit about population processes when analysing population patterns.

Is health care seeking for irritable bowel syndrome and functional dyspepsia a socially learned response to illness?

In a population-based study of 207 subjects with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) or functional dyspepsia (FD) and controls (n = 100), we aimed to determine whether dimensions of abnormal illness behavior from the Abnormal Illness Behaviour Questionnaire and aspects of social learning of illness behavior from the Social Learning of Illness Behaviour scale were independent predictors of health care seeking for IBS and FD. Results showed that dimensions of abnormal illness behavior and aspects of social learning of illness behavior (encouragement, reinforcement, and modeling) did not significantly differentiate between consulters and nonconsulters with IBS and/or FD. The Disease Conviction scale (OR = 1.55; 95% CI, 1.15-2.09) of the Abnormal Illness Behaviour Questionnaire was an independent predictor of having a diagnosis of IBS and/or FD, independent of age and gender, psychiatric diagnoses, and symptom severity. We conclude that a belief in the presence of serious pathology characterizes community subjects with IBS and FD, but not health care seeking.

Myocardial and vascular dysfunction and exercise capacity in the metabolic syndrome

The metabolic syndrome (MS) is associated with cardiovascular risk exceeding that expected from atherosclerotic risk factors, but the mechanism of this association is unclear. We sought to determine the effects of the MS on myocardial and vascular function and cardiorespiratory fitness in 393 subjects with significant risk factors but no cardiovascular disease and negative stress echocardiographic findings. Myocardial function was assessed by global strain rate, strain, and regional systolic velocity (s(m)) and diastolic velocity (e(m)) using tissue Doppler imaging. Arterial compliance was assessed using the pulse pressure method, involving simultaneous radial applanation tonometry and echocardiographic measurement of stroke volume. Exercise capacity was measured by expired gas analysis. Significant and incremental variations in left ventricular systolic (s(m), global strain, and strain rate) and diastolic (e(m)) function were found according to the number of components of MS (p <0.001). MS contributed to reduced systolic and diastolic function even in those without left ventricular hypertrophy (p <0.01). A similar dose-response association was present between the number of components of the MS and exercise capacity (p <0.001) and arterial compliance. The global strain rate and em were independent predictors of exercise capacity. In conclusion, subclinical left ventricular dysfunction corresponded to the degree of metabolic burden, and these myocardial changes were associated with reduced cardiorespiratory fitness.' Subjects with MS who also have subclinical myocardial abnormalities and reduced cardiorespiratory fitness may have a higher risk of cardiovascular disease events and heart failure. (C) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Establishing representative no-take areas in the Great Barrier Reef : Large scale implementation of theory on marine protected areas

The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, an area almost the size , of Japan, has a new network of no-take areas that significantly improves the protection of biodiversity. The new marine park zoning implements, in a quantitative manner, many of the theoretical design principles discussed in the literature. For example, the new network of no-take areas has at least 20% protection per bioregion, minimum levels of protection for all known habitats and special or unique features, and minimum sizes for no-take areas of at least 10 or 20 kat across at the smallest diameter Overall, more than 33% of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park is now in no-take areas (previously 4.5%). The steps taken leading to this outcome were to clarify to the interested public why the existing level of protection wets inadequate; detail the conservation objectives of establishing new no-take areas; work with relevant and independent experts to define, and contribute to, the best scientific process to deliver on the objectives; describe the biodiversity (e.g., map bioregions); define operational principles needed to achieve the objectives; invite community input on all of The above; gather and layer the data gathered in round-table discussions; report the degree of achievement of principles for various options of no-take areas; and determine how to address negative impacts. Some of the key success factors in this case have global relevance and include focusing initial communication on the problem to be addressed; applying the precautionary principle; using independent experts; facilitating input to decision making; conducting extensive and participatory consultation; having an existing marine park that encompassed much of the ecosystem; having legislative power under federal law; developing high-level support; ensuring agency Priority and ownership; and being able to address the issue of displaced fishers.