Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.

Acoustic Emission Experiments of Rock Failure under Load Simulating the Hypocenter Condition

A series of acoustic emission (AE) experiments of rock failure have been conducted under cyclic load in tri-axial stress tests. To simulate the hypocenter condition the specimens are loaded by the combined action of a constant stress, intended to simulate

Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Comparison of Various Adhesion Contact Theories and the Influence of Dimensionless Load Parameter

Three models, JKR (Johnson, Kendall and Roberts), DMT (Derjaguin, Muller, and Toporov) andMD (Maugis-Dugdale),are compared with the Hertz model in dealing with nano-contact problems. It has been shown that both the dimensionless load parameter, P D P=.1/4

Simulation of the Load-Unload Response Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice Solid Model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

The instability analysis of saturated soil under shear load

A theoretical description of shear instability is presented in a system of equations. It is shown that two types of instability may exist. One of them is dominated by pore pressure softening while the other by strain softening. A criterion combining pore pressure softening, strain hardening, and volume strain coefficient is obtained and practical implications are discussed.

An experimental study on the load carrying capacity of cold-formed steel studs and panels

A full-scale experimental study on the structural performance of load-bearing wall panels made of cold-formed steel frames and boards is presented. Six different types of C-channel stud, a total of 20 panels with one middle stud and 10 panels with two middle studs were tested under vertical compression until failure. For panels, the main variables considered are screw spacing (300 mm, 400 mm, or 600 mm) in the middle stud, board type (oriented strand board - OSB, cement particle board - CPB, or calcium silicate board - CSB), board number (no sheathing, one-side sheathing, or two-side sheathing), and loading type (1, 3, or 4-point loading). The measured load capacity of studs and panels agrees well with analytical prediction. Due to the restraint by rivet connections between stud and track, the effective length factor for the middle stud and the side stud in a frame (unsheathed panel) is reduced to 0.90 and 0.84, respectively. The load carrying capacity of a stud increases significantly whenever one- or two-side sheathing is used, although the latter is significantly more effective. It is also dependent upon the type of board used. Whereas panels with either OSB or CPB boards have nearly identical load carrying capacity, panels with CSB boards are considerably weaker. Screw spacing affects the load carrying capacity of a stud. When the screw spacing on the middle stud in panels with one-side sheathing is reduced from 600 mm to 300 mm, its load carrying capacity increases by 14.5 %, 20.6% and 94.2% for OSB, CPB and CSB, respectively.

Asymptotic analysis based on K-S constitutive law for a rubber wedge compressed by a line load at its tip

In the present paper, a rubber wedge compressed by a line load at its tip is asymptotically analyzed using a special constitutive law proposed by Knowles and Sternberg (K-S elastic law) [J. Elasticity 3 (1973) 67]. The method of dividing sectors proposed by Gao [Theoret. Appl. Fract, Mech. 14 (1990) 219] is used. Domain near the wedge tip can be divided into one expanding sector and two narrowing sectors. Asymptotic equations of the strain-stress field near the wedge tip are derived and solved numerically. The deformation pattern near a wedge tip is completely revealed. A special case. i.e. a half space compressed by a line load is solved while the wedge angle is pi.

The Newest Developments Of Load-Unload Response Ratio (Lurr)

The Load Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It is inspiring that its predictions using LURR have been improving. Since 2004 we have made a major breakthrough in intermediate-term earthquake forecasting of the strong earthquakes on the Chinese mainland using LURR and successfully predicted the Pakistan earthquake with magnitude M 7.6 on October 8, 2005. The causes for improving the prediction in terms of LURR have been discussed in the present paper.

Effect Of Load Triaxiality On Polymorphic Transitions In Zinc Oxide

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and first-principles calculations are carried out to analyze the stability of both newly discovered and previously known phases of ZnO under loading of various triaxialities. The analysis focuses on a graphite-like phase (FIX) and a body-centered-tetragonal phase (BCT-4) that were observed recently in [0 1 (1) over bar 0]- and [0 0 0 1]-oriented nanowires respectively under uniaxial tensile loading as well as the natural state of wurtzite (WZ) and the rocksalt (RS) phase which exists under hydrostatic pressure loading. Equilibrium critical stresses for the transformations are obtained. The WZ -> HX transformation is found to be energetically favorable above a critical tensile stress of 10 GPa in [0 1 (1) over tilde 0] nanowires. The BCT-4 phase can be stabilized at tensile stresses above 7 GPa in [0 0 0 1] nanowires. The RS phase is stable at hydrostatic pressures above 8.2 GPa. The identification and characterization of these phase transformations reveal a more extensive polymorphism of ZnO than previously known. A crystalline structure-load triaxiality map is developed to summarize the new understanding. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.