Identifying strategies for mitigating the global warming impact of the EU-25 economy using a multi-objective input-output approach

Global warming mitigation has recently become a priority worldwide. A large body of literature dealing with energy related problems has focused on reducing greenhouse gases emissions at an engineering scale. In contrast, the minimization of climate change at a wider macroeconomic level has so far received much less attention. We investigate here the issue of how to mitigate global warming by performing changes in an economy. To this end, we make use of a systematic tool that combines three methods: linear programming, environmentally extended input output models, and life cycle assessment principles. The problem of identifying key economic sectors that contribute significantly to global warming is posed in mathematical terms as a bi criteria linear program that seeks to optimize simultaneously the total economic output and the total life cycle CO2 emissions. We have applied this approach to the European Union economy, finding that significant reductions in global warming potential can be attained by regulating specific economic sectors. Our tool is intended to aid policymakers in the design of more effective public policies for achieving the environmental and economic targets sought.

Non-Linear Unsteady Aerodynamic Response Approximation Using Multi-Layer Functionals

Non-linear functional representation of the aerodynamic response provides a convenient mathematical model for motion-induced unsteady transonic aerodynamic loads response, that accounts for both complex non-linearities and time-history effects. A recent development, based on functional approximation theory, has established a novel functional form; namely, the multi-layer functional. For a large class of non-linear dynamic systems, such multi-layer functional representations can be realised via finite impulse response (FIR) neural networks. Identification of an appropriate FIR neural network model is facilitated by means of a supervised training process in which a limited sample of system input-output data sets is presented to the temporal neural network. The present work describes a procedure for the systematic identification of parameterised neural network models of motion-induced unsteady transonic aerodynamic loads response. The training process is based on a conventional genetic algorithm to optimise the network architecture, combined with a simplified random search algorithm to update weight and bias values. Application of the scheme to representative transonic aerodynamic loads response data for a bidimensional airfoil executing finite-amplitude motion in transonic flow is used to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach. The approach is shown to furnish a satisfactory generalisation property to different motion histories over a range of Mach numbers in the transonic regime.

A Scalability Study and New Algorithms for Large-Scale Many-Objective Optimization

Many real-world optimization problems contain multiple (often conflicting) goals to be optimized concurrently, commonly referred to as multi-objective problems (MOPs). Over the past few decades, a plethora of multi-objective algorithms have been proposed, often tested on MOPs possessing two or three objectives. Unfortunately, when tasked with solving MOPs with four or more objectives, referred to as many-objective problems (MaOPs), a large majority of optimizers experience significant performance degradation. The downfall of these optimizers is that simultaneously maintaining a well-spread set of solutions along with appropriate selection pressure to converge becomes difficult as the number of objectives increase. This difficulty is further compounded for large-scale MaOPs, i.e., MaOPs possessing large amounts of decision variables. In this thesis, we explore the challenges of many-objective optimization and propose three new promising algorithms designed to efficiently solve MaOPs. Experimental results demonstrate the proposed optimizers to perform very well, often outperforming state-of-the-art many-objective algorithms.

Domain/Multi-Domain Protection and Provisioning in Optical Networks

L’évolution récente des commutateurs de sélection de longueurs d’onde (WSS -Wavelength Selective Switch) favorise le développement du multiplexeur optique d’insertionextraction reconfigurable (ROADM - Reconfigurable Optical Add/Drop Multiplexers) à plusieurs degrés sans orientation ni coloration, considéré comme un équipement fort prometteur pour les réseaux maillés du futur relativement au multiplexage en longueur d’onde (WDM -Wavelength Division Multiplexing ). Cependant, leur propriété de commutation asymétrique complique la question de l’acheminement et de l’attribution des longueur d’ondes (RWA - Routing andWavelength Assignment). Or la plupart des algorithmes de RWA existants ne tiennent pas compte de cette propriété d’asymétrie. L’interruption des services causée par des défauts d’équipements sur les chemins optiques (résultat provenant de la résolution du problème RWA) a pour conséquence la perte d’une grande quantité de données. Les recherches deviennent ainsi incontournables afin d’assurer la survie fonctionnelle des réseaux optiques, à savoir, le maintien des services, en particulier en cas de pannes d’équipement. La plupart des publications antérieures portaient particulièrement sur l’utilisation d’un système de protection permettant de garantir le reroutage du trafic en cas d’un défaut d’un lien. Cependant, la conception de la protection contre le défaut d’un lien ne s’avère pas toujours suffisante en termes de survie des réseaux WDM à partir de nombreux cas des autres types de pannes devenant courant de nos jours, tels que les bris d’équipements, les pannes de deux ou trois liens, etc. En outre, il y a des défis considérables pour protéger les grands réseaux optiques multidomaines composés de réseaux associés à un domaine simple, interconnectés par des liens interdomaines, où les détails topologiques internes d’un domaine ne sont généralement pas partagés à l’extérieur. La présente thèse a pour objectif de proposer des modèles d’optimisation de grande taille et des solutions aux problèmes mentionnés ci-dessus. Ces modèles-ci permettent de générer des solutions optimales ou quasi-optimales avec des écarts d’optimalité mathématiquement prouvée. Pour ce faire, nous avons recours à la technique de génération de colonnes afin de résoudre les problèmes inhérents à la programmation linéaire de grande envergure. Concernant la question de l’approvisionnement dans les réseaux optiques, nous proposons un nouveau modèle de programmation linéaire en nombres entiers (ILP - Integer Linear Programming) au problème RWA afin de maximiser le nombre de requêtes acceptées (GoS - Grade of Service). Le modèle résultant constitue celui de l’optimisation d’un ILP de grande taille, ce qui permet d’obtenir la solution exacte des instances RWA assez grandes, en supposant que tous les noeuds soient asymétriques et accompagnés d’une matrice de connectivité de commutation donnée. Ensuite, nous modifions le modèle et proposons une solution au problème RWA afin de trouver la meilleure matrice de commutation pour un nombre donné de ports et de connexions de commutation, tout en satisfaisant/maximisant la qualité d’écoulement du trafic GoS. Relativement à la protection des réseaux d’un domaine simple, nous proposons des solutions favorisant la protection contre les pannes multiples. En effet, nous développons la protection d’un réseau d’un domaine simple contre des pannes multiples, en utilisant les p-cycles de protection avec un chemin indépendant des pannes (FIPP - Failure Independent Path Protecting) et de la protection avec un chemin dépendant des pannes (FDPP - Failure Dependent Path-Protecting). Nous proposons ensuite une nouvelle formulation en termes de modèles de flots pour les p-cycles FDPP soumis à des pannes multiples. Le nouveau modèle soulève un problème de taille, qui a un nombre exponentiel de contraintes en raison de certaines contraintes d’élimination de sous-tour. Par conséquent, afin de résoudre efficacement ce problème, on examine : (i) une décomposition hiérarchique du problème auxiliaire dans le modèle de décomposition, (ii) des heuristiques pour gérer efficacement le grand nombre de contraintes. À propos de la protection dans les réseaux multidomaines, nous proposons des systèmes de protection contre les pannes d’un lien. Tout d’abord, un modèle d’optimisation est proposé pour un système de protection centralisée, en supposant que la gestion du réseau soit au courant de tous les détails des topologies physiques des domaines. Nous proposons ensuite un modèle distribué de l’optimisation de la protection dans les réseaux optiques multidomaines, une formulation beaucoup plus réaliste car elle est basée sur l’hypothèse d’une gestion de réseau distribué. Ensuite, nous ajoutons une bande pasiv sante partagée afin de réduire le coût de la protection. Plus précisément, la bande passante de chaque lien intra-domaine est partagée entre les p-cycles FIPP et les p-cycles dans une première étude, puis entre les chemins pour lien/chemin de protection dans une deuxième étude. Enfin, nous recommandons des stratégies parallèles aux solutions de grands réseaux optiques multidomaines. Les résultats de l’étude permettent d’élaborer une conception efficace d’un système de protection pour un très large réseau multidomaine (45 domaines), le plus large examiné dans la littérature, avec un système à la fois centralisé et distribué.

Compact Representations for Fast Nonrigid Registration of Medical Images

We develop efficient techniques for the non-rigid registration of medical images by using representations that adapt to the anatomy found in such images. Images of anatomical structures typically have uniform intensity interiors and smooth boundaries. We create methods to represent such regions compactly using tetrahedra. Unlike voxel-based representations, tetrahedra can accurately describe the expected smooth surfaces of medical objects. Furthermore, the interior of such objects can be represented using a small number of tetrahedra. Rather than describing a medical object using tens of thousands of voxels, our representations generally contain only a few thousand elements. Tetrahedra facilitate the creation of efficient non-rigid registration algorithms based on finite element methods (FEM). We create a fast, FEM-based method to non-rigidly register segmented anatomical structures from two subjects. Using our compact tetrahedral representations, this method generally requires less than one minute of processing time on a desktop PC. We also create a novel method for the non-rigid registration of gray scale images. To facilitate a fast method, we create a tetrahedral representation of a displacement field that automatically adapts to both the anatomy in an image and to the displacement field. The resulting algorithm has a computational cost that is dominated by the number of nodes in the mesh (about 10,000), rather than the number of voxels in an image (nearly 10,000,000). For many non-rigid registration problems, we can find a transformation from one image to another in five minutes. This speed is important as it allows use of the algorithm during surgery. We apply our algorithms to find correlations between the shape of anatomical structures and the presence of schizophrenia. We show that a study based on our representations outperforms studies based on other representations. We also use the results of our non-rigid registration algorithm as the basis of a segmentation algorithm. That algorithm also outperforms other methods in our tests, producing smoother segmentations and more accurately reproducing manual segmentations.

Methodology to obtain the user's Human Values Scale from Smart User Models

En años recientes,la Inteligencia Artificial ha contribuido a resolver problemas encontrados en el desempeño de las tareas de unidades informáticas, tanto si las computadoras están distribuidas para interactuar entre ellas o en cualquier entorno (Inteligencia Artificial Distribuida). Las Tecnologías de la Información permiten la creación de soluciones novedosas para problemas específicos mediante la aplicación de los hallazgos en diversas áreas de investigación. Nuestro trabajo está dirigido a la creación de modelos de usuario mediante un enfoque multidisciplinario en los cuales se emplean los principios de la psicología, inteligencia artificial distribuida, y el aprendizaje automático para crear modelos de usuario en entornos abiertos; uno de estos es la Inteligencia Ambiental basada en Modelos de Usuario con funciones de aprendizaje incremental y distribuido (conocidos como Smart User Model). Basándonos en estos modelos de usuario, dirigimos esta investigación a la adquisición de características del usuario importantes y que determinan la escala de valores dominantes de este en aquellos temas en los cuales está más interesado, desarrollando una metodología para obtener la Escala de Valores Humanos del usuario con respecto a sus características objetivas, subjetivas y emocionales (particularmente en Sistemas de Recomendación).Una de las áreas que ha sido poco investigada es la inclusión de la escala de valores humanos en los sistemas de información. Un Sistema de Recomendación, Modelo de usuario o Sistemas de Información, solo toman en cuenta las preferencias y emociones del usuario [Velásquez, 1996, 1997; Goldspink, 2000; Conte and Paolucci, 2001; Urban and Schmidt, 2001; Dal Forno and Merlone, 2001, 2002; Berkovsky et al., 2007c]. Por lo tanto, el principal enfoque de nuestra investigación está basado en la creación de una metodología que permita la generación de una escala de valores humanos para el usuario desde el modelo de usuario. Presentamos resultados obtenidos de un estudio de casos utilizando las características objetivas, subjetivas y emocionales en las áreas de servicios bancarios y de restaurantes donde la metodología propuesta en esta investigación fue puesta a prueba.En esta tesis, las principales contribuciones son: El desarrollo de una metodología que, dado un modelo de usuario con atributos objetivos, subjetivos y emocionales, se obtenga la Escala de Valores Humanos del usuario. La metodología propuesta está basada en el uso de aplicaciones ya existentes, donde todas las conexiones entre usuarios, agentes y dominios que se caracterizan por estas particularidades y atributos; por lo tanto, no se requiere de un esfuerzo extra por parte del usuario.

A contour-advective semi-lagrangian numerical algorithm for simulating fine-scale conservative dynamical fields

This paper describes a novel numerical algorithm for simulating the evolution of fine-scale conservative fields in layer-wise two-dimensional flows, the most important examples of which are the earth's atmosphere and oceans. the algorithm combines two radically different algorithms, one Lagrangian and the other Eulerian, to achieve an unexpected gain in computational efficiency. The algorithm is demonstrated for multi-layer quasi-geostrophic flow, and results are presented for a simulation of a tilted stratospheric polar vortex and of nearly-inviscid quasi-geostrophic turbulence. the turbulence results contradict previous arguments and simulation results that have suggested an ultimate two-dimensional, vertically-coherent character of the flow. Ongoing extensions of the algorithm to the generally ageostrophic flows characteristic of planetary fluid dynamics are outlined.

A practical approach to a multi-level analysis with a sparse binary outcome within a large surgical trial

Objectives: To assess the potential source of variation that surgeon may add to patient outcome in a clinical trial of surgical procedures. Methods: Two large (n = 1380) parallel multicentre randomized surgical trials were undertaken to compare laparoscopically assisted hysterectomy with conventional methods of abdominal and vaginal hysterectomy; involving 43 surgeons. The primary end point of the trial was the occurrence of at least one major complication. Patients were nested within surgeons giving the data set a hierarchical structure. A total of 10% of patients had at least one major complication, that is, a sparse binary outcome variable. A linear mixed logistic regression model (with logit link function) was used to model the probability of a major complication, with surgeon fitted as a random effect. Models were fitted using the method of maximum likelihood in SAS((R)). Results: There were many convergence problems. These were resolved using a variety of approaches including; treating all effects as fixed for the initial model building; modelling the variance of a parameter on a logarithmic scale and centring of continuous covariates. The initial model building process indicated no significant 'type of operation' across surgeon interaction effect in either trial, the 'type of operation' term was highly significant in the abdominal trial, and the 'surgeon' term was not significant in either trial. Conclusions: The analysis did not find a surgeon effect but it is difficult to conclude that there was not a difference between surgeons. The statistical test may have lacked sufficient power, the variance estimates were small with large standard errors, indicating that the precision of the variance estimates may be questionable.

MIMO Wiener model identification for large scale fading of wireless mobile communications links

The large scale fading of wireless mobile communications links is modelled assuming the mobile receiver motion is described by a dynamic linear system in state-space. The geometric relations involved in the attenuation and multi-path propagation of the electric field are described by a static non-linear mapping. A Wiener system subspace identification algorithm in conjunction with polynomial regression is used to identify a model from time-domain estimates of the field intensity assuming a multitude of emitters and an antenna array at the receiver end.

A comparative study of Java and C performance in two large-scale parallel applications

In the 1990s the Message Passing Interface Forum defined MPI bindings for Fortran, C, and C++. With the success of MPI these relatively conservative languages have continued to dominate in the parallel computing community. There are compelling arguments in favour of more modern languages like Java. These include portability, better runtime error checking, modularity, and multi-threading. But these arguments have not converted many HPC programmers, perhaps due to the scarcity of full-scale scientific Java codes, and the lack of evidence for performance competitive with C or Fortran. This paper tries to redress this situation by porting two scientific applications to Java. Both of these applications are parallelized using our thread-safe Java messaging system—MPJ Express. The first application is the Gadget-2 code, which is a massively parallel structure formation code for cosmological simulations. The second application uses the finite-domain time-difference method for simulations in the area of computational electromagnetics. We evaluate and compare the performance of the Java and C versions of these two scientific applications, and demonstrate that the Java codes can achieve performance comparable with legacy applications written in conventional HPC languages. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Intelligent agents for fault tolerance: from multi-agent simulation to cluster-based implementation

Recent research in multi-agent systems incorporate fault tolerance concepts, but does not explore the extension and implementation of such ideas for large scale parallel computing systems. The work reported in this paper investigates a swarm array computing approach, namely 'Intelligent Agents'. A task to be executed on a parallel computing system is decomposed to sub-tasks and mapped onto agents that traverse an abstracted hardware layer. The agents intercommunicate across processors to share information during the event of a predicted core/processor failure and for successfully completing the task. The feasibility of the approach is validated by simulations on an FPGA using a multi-agent simulator, and implementation of a parallel reduction algorithm on a computer cluster using the Message Passing Interface.

Kinetic multi-layer model of aerosol surface and bulk chemistry (KM-SUB): the influence of interfacial transport and bulk diffusion on the oxidation of oleic acid by ozone

We present a novel kinetic multi-layer model that explicitly resolves mass transport and chemical reaction at the surface and in the bulk of aerosol particles (KM-SUB). The model is based on the PRA framework of gas-particle interactions (Poschl-Rudich-Ammann, 2007), and it includes reversible adsorption, surface reactions and surface-bulk exchange as well as bulk diffusion and reaction. Unlike earlier models, KM-SUB does not require simplifying assumptions about steady-state conditions and radial mixing. The temporal evolution and concentration profiles of volatile and non-volatile species at the gas-particle interface and in the particle bulk can be modeled along with surface concentrations and gas uptake coefficients. In this study we explore and exemplify the effects of bulk diffusion on the rate of reactive gas uptake for a simple reference system, the ozonolysis of oleic acid particles, in comparison to experimental data and earlier model studies. We demonstrate how KM-SUB can be used to interpret and analyze experimental data from laboratory studies, and how the results can be extrapolated to atmospheric conditions. In particular, we show how interfacial and bulk transport, i.e., surface accommodation, bulk accommodation and bulk diffusion, influence the kinetics of the chemical reaction. Sensitivity studies suggest that in fine air particulate matter oleic acid and compounds with similar reactivity against ozone (carbon-carbon double bonds) can reach chemical lifetimes of many hours only if they are embedded in a (semi-)solid matrix with very low diffusion coefficients (< 10(-10) cm(2) s(-1)). Depending on the complexity of the investigated system, unlimited numbers of volatile and non-volatile species and chemical reactions can be flexibly added and treated with KM-SUB. We propose and intend to pursue the application of KM-SUB as a basis for the development of a detailed master mechanism of aerosol chemistry as well as for the derivation of simplified but realistic parameterizations for large-scale atmospheric and climate models.

Kinetic multi-layer model of aerosol surface and bulk chemistry (KM-SUB): the influence of interfacial transport and bulk diffusion on the oxidation of oleic acid by ozone

We present a novel kinetic multi-layer model that explicitly resolves mass transport and chemical reaction at the surface and in the bulk of aerosol particles (KM-SUB). The model is based on the PRA framework of gas–particle interactions (P¨oschl et al., 5 2007), and it includes reversible adsorption, surface reactions and surface-bulk exchange as well as bulk diffusion and reaction. Unlike earlier models, KM-SUB does not require simplifying assumptions about steady-state conditions and radial mixing. The temporal evolution and concentration profiles of volatile and non-volatile species at the gas-particle interface and in the particle bulk can be modeled along with surface 10 concentrations and gas uptake coefficients. In this study we explore and exemplify the effects of bulk diffusion on the rate of reactive gas uptake for a simple reference system, the ozonolysis of oleic acid particles, in comparison to experimental data and earlier model studies. We demonstrate how KM-SUB can be used to interpret and analyze experimental data from laboratory stud15 ies, and how the results can be extrapolated to atmospheric conditions. In particular, we show how interfacial transport and bulk transport, i.e., surface accommodation, bulk accommodation and bulk diffusion, influence the kinetics of the chemical reaction. Sensitivity studies suggest that in fine air particulate matter oleic acid and compounds with similar reactivity against ozone (C=C double bonds) can reach chemical lifetimes of 20 multiple hours only if they are embedded in a (semi-)solid matrix with very low diffusion coefficients (10−10 cm2 s−1). Depending on the complexity of the investigated system, unlimited numbers of volatile and non-volatile species and chemical reactions can be flexibly added and treated with KM-SUB. We propose and intend to pursue the application of KM-SUB 25 as a basis for the development of a detailed master mechanism of aerosol chemistry as well as for the derivation of simplified but realistic parameterizations for large-scale atmospheric and climate models.

Multi-satellite observed responses of precipitation and its extremes to interannual climate variability

The consistency of precipitation variability estimated from the multiple satellite-based observing systems is assessed. There is generally good agreement between TRMM TMI, SSM/I, GPCP and AMSRE datasets for the inter-annual variability of precipitation since 1997 but the HOAPS dataset appears to overestimate the magnitude of variability. Over the tropical ocean the TRMM 3B42 dataset produces unrealistic variabilitys. Based upon deseasonalised GPCP data for the period 1998-2008, the sensitivity of global mean precipitation (P) to surface temperature (T) changes (dP/dT) is about 6%/K, although a smaller sensitivity of 3.6%/K is found using monthly GPCP data over the longer period 1989-2008. Over the tropical oceans dP/dT ranges from 10-30%/K depending upon time-period and dataset while over tropical land dP/dT is -8 to -11%/K for the 1998-2008 period. Analyzing the response of the tropical ocean precipitation intensity distribution to changes in T we find the wetter area P shows a strong positive response to T of around 20%/K. The response over the drier tropical regimes is less coherent and varies with datasets, but responses over the tropical land show significant negative relationships over an interannual time-scale. The spatial and temporal resolutions of the datasets strongly influence the precipitation responses over the tropical oceans and help explain some of the discrepancy between different datasets. Consistency between datasets is found to increase on averaging from daily to 5-day time-scales and considering a 1o (or coarser) spatial resolution. Defining the wet and dry tropical ocean regime by the 60th percentile of P intensity, the 5-day average, 1o TMI data exhibits a coherent drying of the dry regime at the rate of -20%/K and the wet regime becomes wetter at a similar rate with warming.