Application of an Adaptive Neural Network to Medical Decision Support

Medical diagnostic and prognostic problems are prime examples of decision making in the face of uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate the applicability of the Fuzzy ARTMAP neural network as an intelligent decision support system in clinical medicine. In particular, Fuzzy ARTMAP is employed as a predictive model for prognosis of complications in patients admitted to the Coronary Care Units. A number of off-line and on-line experiments have been conducted with various network parameter settings, training methods, and learning rules. The results are compared with those from other systems including the logistic regression model. In addition, the outcomes of a set of on-line learning experiments revealed the potential of employing Fuzzy ARTMAP as an autono-mously learning system that is able to learn perpetually and, at the same time, to provide useful decision support.

Decision support and the effectiveness of web-based delivery and information tailoring for bowel cancer screening : an exploratory study

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most commonly diagnosed cancer in males and the second in females throughout the developed world. Population screening using fecal occult blood tests (FOBTs) facilitates early detection and greater chance of survival, but participation rates are low. We developed a Web-based decision tool to provide information tailored to an individual’s decision stage for CRC screening and attitude toward screening utilizing the Preventive Health Model (PHM) and Precaution Adoption Process Model (PAPM) as theoretical frameworks for screening behavior. We describe the practical steps employed in the tool’s design and the subsequent conduct of an exploratory study.
Objective: To design a decision tool for CRC screening and conduct an exploratory study among average-risk men and women to (1) test the impact of message type (tailored vs non-tailored) and message delivery modality (Web-based vs paper-based) on attitudes toward screening and screening uptake, and (2) investigate the acceptability of the decision tool and relevance of materials.
Methods: Participants (n = 100), recruited from a population sample of men and women aged 50-76 residing in urban Adelaide, Australia, were randomly assigned to a control group or one of 4 interventions: (1) Web-based and tailored information, (2) paper-based and tailored information, (3) Web-based and non-tailored (generic) information, or (4) paper-based and non-tailored information. Participation was augmented by snowball recruitment (n = 19). Questionnaires based on PHM variables were administered pre- and post-intervention. Participants were given the opportunity to request an FOBT. Following the intervention, participants discussed the acceptability of the tool.
Results: Full data were available for 87.4% (104/119) of participants. Post-intervention, perceived susceptibility scores for individuals receiving tailored information increased from mean 10.6 (SD 2.1) to mean 11.8 (SD 2.2). Scores on self-efficacy increased in the tailored group from mean 11.7 (SD 2.0) to mean 12.6 (SD 1.8). There were significant time x modality x message effects for social influence and salience and coherence, reflecting an increase in these scores for tailored Web-based participants only; social influence scores increased from mean 11.7 (SD 2.6) to mean 14.9 (SD 2.3), and salience and coherence scores increased from mean 16.0 (SD 2.2) to mean 17.7 (SD 2.1). There was no greater influence of modality or message type on movement toward a decision to screen or screening uptake, indicating that neither tailored messages nor a Web modality had superior effect. Overall, participants regarded tailored messages positively, but thought that the Web tool lacked “media richness.”
Conclusions: This exploratory study confirms that tailoring on PHM predictors of CRC screening has the potential to positively address attitudes toward screening. However, tailoring on these variables did not result in significantly increased screening uptake. Future research should consider other possible psychosocial influences. Mode of delivery did not affect outcomes, but as a delivery medium, the Web has economic and logistical advantages over paper.

Evaluation of housing developments for sustainability using a multi-criteria approach

New housing developments in Australia, particularly on Greenfield sites on the edge of existing urban centres, need to be sustainable in environmental and social terms if long term problems are to be avoided. Sustainability is multi-dimensional and existing analyses have been found to be inadequate in assessing housing developments holistically. This paper describes research which has used five criteria (energy use, resource use, neighbourhood character, neighbourhood connectivity and diversity), representing 31 indicators, to assess three housing precincts of a regional city in southern Australia. The method has been found to produce useful assessments of sustainability. The method has the potential to inform future housing developments and to be used to improve existing suburbs.

Categorization of disaster decision support needs for the development of an integrated model for DMDSS

The wide variety of disasters and the large number of activities involved have resulted in the demand for separate Decision Support System (DSS) models to manage different requirements. The modular approach to model management is to provide a framework in which to focus multidisciplinary research and model integration. A broader view of our approach is to provide the flexibility to organize and adapt a tailored DSS model (or existing modular subroutines) according to the dynamic needs of a disaster. For this purpose, the existing modular subroutines of DSS models are selected and integrated to produce a dynamic integrated model focussed on a given disaster scenario. In order to facilitate the effective integration of these subroutines, it is necessary to select the appropriate modular subroutine beforehand. Therefore, subroutine selection is an important preliminary step towards model integration in developing Disaster Management Decision Support Systems (DMDSS). The ability to identify a modular subroutine for a problem is an important feature before performing model integration. Generally, decision support needs are combined, and encapsulate different requirements of decision-making in the disaster management area. Categorization of decision support needs can provide the basis for such model selection to facilitate effective and efficient decision-making in disaster management. Therefore, our focus in this paper is on developing a methodology to help identify subroutines from existing DSS models developed for disaster management on the basis of needs categorization. The problem of the formulation and execution of such modular subroutines are not addressed here. Since the focus is on the selection of the modular subroutines from the existing DMDSS models on basis of a proposed needs classification scheme.

Developing a spatial decision support system for sustainable built environments in Abu Dhabi

 The research aims at developing a set of sustainability indicators for the challenging Abu Dhabi built environment and examine the possible use of GIS. The research has illustrated the real potential of the sustainability indicators for managing built environment sustainability performance and provides a clear perspective on how the proposed indicators can be used to develop a DSS to assess and improve Abu Dhabi’s sustainability.

Decision Support Systems And Promoting Socially Just Environmental Management

The Mauri Model DMF is unique in its approach to the management of water resources as the framework offers a transparent and inclusive approach to considering the environmental, economic, social and cultural aspects of the decisions being contemplated. The Mauri Model DMF is unique because it is capable of including multiple-worldviews and adopts mauri (intrinsic value or well-being) in the place of the more common monetised assessments of pseudo sustainability using Cost Benefit Analysis. The Mauri Model DMF uses a two stage process that first identifies participants’ worldviews and inherent bias regarding water resource management, and then facilitates transparent assessment of selected sustainability performance indicators. The assessment can then be contemplated as the separate environmental, economic, social and cultural dimensions of the decision, and collectively as an overall result; or the priorities associated with different worldviews can be applied to determine the sensitivity of the result to different cultural contexts or worldviews.

MCDA: análise de decisão multicritério como ferramenta de avaliação de instalações portuárias: o caso dos terminais de contêineres brasileiros

Este trabalho busca avaliar, com suporte da metodologia MCDA - análise de decisão multicritério, os terminais de contêineres brasileiros quanto a suas potencialidades como vetores de crescimento sustentado da economia, no médio e longo prazo, para priorização de investimentos públicos e privados. O trabalho se consubstancia em um levantamento bibliográfico do tema decisório, que lhe serve de base, seguido de um estudo do tema portuário, a fim de levantar os fatores que tornam viável o florescimento e desenvolvimento de um sítio portuário, além de buscar tendências do setor de contêineres no Brasil. Após estas etapas, foi desenvolvido uma modelagem para o problema de avaliação dos terminais, com ajuda do software Expert Choice. Os resultados obtidos apontam para uma alteração sensível de paradigma no panorama portuário nacional em um cenário futuro. Portos que hoje se localizam na parte superior da lista de movimentação de contêineres, à frente nas estatísticas, podem não ter para onde se expandir, enquanto outros, que se encontram menos pujantes, podem florescer nas próximas décadas, devido às características de cada sítio portuário. As mais relevantes foram selecionadas como critérios do modelo desenvolvido, são eles: águas abrigadas, retroáreas, acessos terrestres e marítimos, equacionamento de questões ambientais, localização estratégica, vocação regional, extensão de cais e áreas de expansão. Entre as conclusões deste estudo, pode-se citar: 1 - O Porto de Santos, tradicional líder do ranking nacional em movimentação de contêineres, deve se manter entre os primeiros, graças à sua proximidade com o principal centro econômico e industrial nacional, a região da grande São Paulo, embora esteja com sua capacidade perto do limite operacional, conta com áreas de expansão, como o projeto Barnabé-Bagres. 2 - Outro porto que se destacou na classificação final foi o de Itaguaí, já hoje com movimentação crescente e enorme potencial de crescimento na área de contêineres. Possui excelente condição de águas abrigadas, boa localização estratégica, entre Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo, dois pólos econômicos fortes, com influência decisiva no cenário nacional, e que dispõe de consistente plano de expansão, especialmente relacionado ao aumento de contêineres.

Modelagem de decisão na seleção de equipamento: um estudo usando o processo analítico hierárquico na contratação de sondas de perfuração de poços de petróleo

The main goal of this dissertation is to develop a Multi Criteria Decision Aid Model to be used in Oils and Gas perforation rigs contracts choices. The developed model should permit the utilization of multiples criterions, covering problems that exist with models that mainly use the price of the contracts as its decision criterion. The AHP has been chosen because its large utilization, not only academic, but in many other areas, its simplicity of use and flexibility, and also fill all the requirements necessary to complete the task. The development of the model was conducted by interviews and surveys with one specialist in this specific area, who also acts as the main actor on the decision process. The final model consists in six criterions: Costs, mobility, automation, technical support, how fast the service could be concluded and availability to start the operations. Three rigs were chosen as possible solutions for the problem. The results reached by the utilizations of the model suggests that the utilization of AHP as a decision support system in this kind of situation is possible, allowing a simplifications of the problem, and also it s a useful tool to improve every one involved on the process s knowledge about the problem subject, and its possible solutions

Development of an open case-based decision-support system for diagnosis in oral pathology

Making diagnoses in oral pathology are often difficult and confusing in dental practice, especially for the lessexperienced dental student. One of the most promising areas in bioinformatics is computer-aided diagnosis, where a computer system is capable of imitating human reasoning ability and provides diagnoses with an accuracy approaching that of expert professionals. This type of system could be an alternative tool for assisting dental students to overcome the difficulties of the oral pathology learning process. This could allow students to define variables and information, important to improving the decision-making performance. However, no current open data management system has been integrated with an artificial intelligence system in a user-friendly environment. Such a system could also be used as an education tool to help students perform diagnoses. The aim of the present study was to develop and test an open case-based decisionsupport system.Methods: An open decision-support system based on Bayes' theorem connected to a relational database was developed using the C++ programming language. The software was tested in the computerisation of a surgical pathology service and in simulating the diagnosis of 43 known cases of oral bone disease. The simulation was performed after the system was initially filled with data from 401 cases of oral bone disease.Results: the system allowed the authors to construct and to manage a pathology database, and to simulate diagnoses using the variables from the database.Conclusion: Combining a relational database and an open decision-support system in the same user-friendly environment proved effective in simulating diagnoses based on information from an updated database.