Modelo dinâmico bayesiano multivariado para análise espaço-temporal de dados de área

Pós-graduação em Matematica Aplicada e Computacional - FCT

Caracterização gfeológico-geotécnica aplicada a gestão de risco no gasoduto GASBOL, trecho Ipeúna/SP - Itirapina/SP

The pipelines are characterized by the great length and linearity, these enterprises are usually associated with the horizon of soil and decomposed rock and accidents in this system usually have high complexity. So this work proposes a study of geological and geotechnical characterization of approximately 40 km ² and a study of risk analysis along 18.3 km of gas pipeline GASBOL, in the municipalities of Ipeúna-SP and Itirapina-SP, in scale 1:25.000, besides correlation between studies. The method for geological and geotechnical characterization is based on physiographic integrated analysis technique, which is supported by literature research, observation and interpretation of satellite imagery (photointerpretation), correlation of products numerical model of ground, fieldwork. The method adopted for risk classification is based on preliminary analysis of hazards (APP) technique, which is identified the geological process, this feature is classified as the susceptibility of occurrence, and then classified as the possible consequence of the process, if this evolves. As a product of the research, we designed a map in 1:25,000 scale, containing a table of geological and geotechnical characteristics of the mapped drives, as well as sectorization risk in each section of the pipeline. Were mapped geological and geotechnical seven units in the study area, delimited in excerpts of which five are classified as high risk, totaling 1.1 km in length of 18.3 km total

Avaliação da influência do estresse em modelo experimental de colite por administração de Ácido Trinitrobenzenosulfônico (TNBS) em concentração subinflamatória

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a chronic and relapsing disease caused by exaggerated response of the immune system. It represents a significant health problem by limiting the quality of life and being the main risk factor for colorectal cancer. Despite of its importance, the high worldwide incidence and being the object of research for several decades, the etiology remains unknown. Studies indicates an interaction between genetic and environmental factors which together with the intestinal microbiota, leads to an uncontrolled immune response. One of the aggravating environmental factors often discussed is stress, as the daily life of the population in general is increasingly rushed. In order to demonstrate the influence of stress on IBD, this study aimed to standardize an experimental model of colitis induced by instillation of a trinitrobenzene sulfonic acid (TNBS) noninflammatory concentration plus exposure to stress that intensify the inflammation. Therefore, an experiment was done to determine what would be the noninflammatory concentration. In this step, four different concentrations of TNBS (1, 6, 12.5 or 40mg/ml) were tested and the lowest concentration capable of inducing a noninflammatory response in the gut was defined as 1 mg/ml. Then, a second experiment was performed which induced colitis and exposed the animals to restraint stress. The results, however, showed that this stimulus was not enough to exacerbate the damage caused by the 1 mg/ml concentration of TNBS in the colon. With some changes in the protocol, the third experiment associated cold and restraint, as well as changes on the day of euthanasia, which occurred immediately after the stress session. The results of myeloperoxidase activity measurement were unexpected due to the noninflammatory concentration of TNBS caused an intestinal inflammation similar to the concentration of 40 mg/ml. However, the results of glutathione quantification and the corticosterone ...

Estimação do risco de morte de recém-nascidos utilizando logica fuzzy tipo-2 intervalar

The main objective of the presented study is the development of a predictive interval type-2 fuzzy inference system in order to estimate the mortality risk for a newborn, to be used as an auxiliary tool for decision making in medical centers where there is a lack of professionals for this purpose and, afterwards, to compare its performance to a type-1 fuzzy system. The input variables were chosen due to their acquisition ‘simplicity, not involving any invasive tests, such as blood tests or other specific tests. The variables are easily obtained in the first few minutes of life: birth weight, gestational age at delivery, 5-minute Apgar score and previous report of stillbirth. Databases from the DATASUS were used to validate the model. 1351 records from the city of São José dos Campos, a mid-sized city in the São Paulo state’s countryside, were considered in this study. Finally, an analysis using the ROC curve was performed to estimate the model’s accuracy

Análise de risco em carteiras

The work consists of analyzing the risk management of investments by applying statistical concepts, economic and mathematical models considering the assets on the market on renowned financial institution. The assessment of these risks becomes increasingly interesting in view of minimizing your losses thus maximizing your chances of gains in both markets boom as extreme uncertainty, even with the sudden changes of scenery. Introducing concepts of investment funds, as well as the classification of the types of funds as funds management and equity, its guidelines, the concept of market investment funds. The types of assets comprising the investment funds, their taxation rules beyond the incidents that market widely used by investors and skilled people, both physical and legal, who keep their resources in this modality. With the historical data collected yields of investment funds of the Bank of Brazil, is an accomplished inflation adjustment and calculated the mean and variance for the verification of the model of Markowitz efficient frontier, a method used as investment analysis. This scan is used Matlab to obtain the set (or border) efficient portfolios. Once verified such data, there will be a critique of the Markowitz model as a quadratic programming and more coherent risk measures currently studied as VaR and CVaR minimizing the expected error, approaching our studies of current research. It is found that such studies have much to be explored, since there are many discussions about how effectively measure risk investments such as its characteristic and behavior, using a time series and volatility

Avaliação da apoptose e resposta Th17 em modelo murino de esporotricose

Pós-graduação em Biociências e Biotecnologia Aplicadas à Farmácia - FCFAR

Práticas sanitárias e percepção de risco de produtores de bovinos de corte no Pantanal de Mato Grosso do Sul

Pós-graduação em Medicina Veterinária - FCAV

Expressão gênica e proteica da cox-2 e c-Kit em neoplasias mamárias de cadelas

Pós-graduação em Medicina Veterinária - FCAV

Utilização do modelo da barganha de Nash na seleção de carteiras

This paper discussed the model of Nash bargaining (NASH, 1950, 1953), which its arbitration function is invariant for the linear transformations. A more robust model was proposed with respect to the incommensurable effect. The result obtained by the optimization process was not influenced by the units or the amplitude values of these measures. The risk and the return is measured in portfolios of assets and defined a risk metric, return and a method to handle the risk and return. For this, we made a review on the main characteristics of Brazilian industry funds and their evolution over the past years, in addition to treating on the risk in the financial market, the importance of portfolio selection and the Markowitz Model. Are made closing remarks, an analysis of the results, some suggests, concerns and how such concerns can be improved and / or explored in future studies

Estudo comparativo entre o modelo analítico de Domenico (1987) e Wexler (1992) e suas implicações no gerenciamento de passivos ambientais

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

Modelo fuzzy estimando tempo de internação por doenças cardiovasculares

Abstract A fuzzy linguistic model based on the Mamdani method with input variables, particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, temperature and wind obtained from CETESB with two membership functions each was built to predict the average hospitalization time due to cardiovascular diseases related to exposure to air pollutants in São José dos Campos in the State of São Paulo in 2009. The output variable is the average length of hospitalization obtained from DATASUS with six membership functions. The average time given by the model was compared to actual data using lags of 0 to 4 days. This model was built using the Matlab v. 7.5 fuzzy toolbox. Its accuracy was assessed with the ROC curve. Hospitalizations with a mean time of 7.9 days (SD = 4.9) were recorded in 1119 cases. The data provided revealed a significant correlation with the actual data according to the lags of 0 to 4 days. The pollutant that showed the greatest accuracy was sulfur dioxide. This model can be used as the basis of a specialized system to assist the city health authority in assessing the risk of hospitalizations due to air pollutants.

Fatores de risco associados à disfunção temporomandibular dolorosa em adolescentes

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Efeitos da ciclosporina na lesão renal por isquemia-reperfusão em ratos: estudo em modelo experimental

Pós-graduação em Anestesiologia - FMB

Simulação sequencial na interpolação dos dados de entrada ou saída do modelo de lixiviação do software Araquá

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Irrigação e Drenagem) - FCA

Avaliação da erosão hídrica e transporte de sedimentos através do modelo hidrossedimentológico SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE