Kinematics of the Sicily and Calabria Subduction System from Elastic Block Modeling of GPS Data

We use data from about 700 GPS stations in the EuroMediterranen region to investigate the present-day behavior of the the Calabrian subduction zone within the Mediterranean-scale plates kinematics and to perform local scale studies about the strain accumulation on active structures. We focus attenction on the Messina Straits and Crati Valley faults where GPS data show extentional velocity gradients of ∼3 mm/yr and ∼2 mm/yr, respectively. We use dislocation model and a non-linear constrained optimization algorithm to invert for fault geometric parameters and slip-rates and evaluate the associated uncertainties adopting a bootstrap approach. Our analysis suggest the presence of two partially locked normal faults. To investigate the impact of elastic strain contributes from other nearby active faults onto the observed velocity gradient we use a block modeling approach. Our models show that the inferred slip-rates on the two analyzed structures are strongly impacted by the assumed locking width of the Calabrian subduction thrust. In order to frame the observed local deformation features within the present- day central Mediterranean kinematics we realyze a statistical analysis testing the indipendent motion (w.r.t. the African and Eurasias plates) of the Adriatic, Cal- abrian and Sicilian blocks. Our preferred model confirms a microplate like behaviour for all the investigated blocks. Within these kinematic boundary conditions we fur- ther investigate the Calabrian Slab interface geometry using a combined approach of block modeling and χ2ν statistic. Almost no information is obtained using only the horizontal GPS velocities that prove to be a not sufficient dataset for a multi-parametric inversion approach. Trying to stronger constrain the slab geometry we estimate the predicted vertical velocities performing suites of forward models of elastic dislocations varying the fault locking depth. Comparison with the observed field suggest a maximum resolved locking depth of 25 km.

Mechanical analysis and modeling of structural archetypes

This is a research B for the University of Bologna. The course is the civil engineering LAUREA MAGISTRALE at UNIBO. The main purpose of this research is to promote another way of explaining, analyzing and presenting some civil engineering aspects to the students worldwide by theory, modeling and photos. The basic idea is divided into three steps. The first one is to present and analyze the theoretical parts. So a detailed analysis of the theory combined with theorems, explanations, examples and exercises will cover this step. At the second, a model will make clear all these parts that were discussed in the theory by showing how the structures work or fail. The modeling is able to present the behavior of many elements, in scale which we use in the real structures. After these two steps an interesting exhibition of photos from the real world with comments will give the chance to the engineers to observe all these theoretical and modeling-laboratory staff in many different cases. For example many civil engineers in the world may know about the air pressure on the structures but many of them have never seen the extraordinary behavior of the bridge of Tacoma ‘dancing with the air’. At this point I would like to say that what I have done is not a book, but a research of how this ‘3 step’ presentation or explanation of some mechanical characteristics could be helpful. I know that my research is something different and new and in my opinion is very important because it helps students to go deeper in the science and also gives new ideas and inspirations. This way of teaching can be used at all lessons especially at the technical. Hope that one day all the books will adopt this kind of presentation.

The Assessment of Multiple Processes Underlying the Attentional Blink: A Fixed - links Modeling Approach based on Behavioral and Electrophysiological Data

When observers are presented with two visual targets appearing in the same position in close temporal proximity, a marked reduction in detection performance of the second target has often been reported, the so-called attentional blink phenomenon. Several studies found a similar decrement of P300 amplitudes during the attentional blink period as observed with detection performances of the second target. However, whether the parallel courses of second target performances and corresponding P300 amplitudes resulted from the same underlying mechanisms remained unclear. The aim of our study was therefore to investigate whether the mechanisms underlying the AB can be assessed by fixed-links modeling and whether this kind of assessment would reveal the same or at least related processes in the behavioral and electrophysiological data. On both levels of observation three highly similar processes could be identified: an increasing, a decreasing and a u-shaped trend. Corresponding processes from the behavioral and electrophysiological data were substantially correlated, with the two u-shaped trends showing the strongest association with each other. Our results provide evidence for the assumption that the same mechanisms underlie attentional blink task performance at the electrophysiological and behavioral levels as assessed by fixed-links models.

Experimenting and modeling: sharp distinctions, integration or just a mess?

At first sight, experimenting and modeling form two distinct modes of scientific inquiry. This spurs philosophical debates about how the distinction should be drawn (e.g. Morgan 2005, Winsberg 2009, Parker 2009). But much scientific practice casts serious doubts on the idea that the distinction makes much sense. There are two worries. First, the practices of modeling and experimenting are often intertwined in intricate ways because much modeling involves experimenting, and the interpretation of many experiments relies upon models. Second, there are borderline cases that seem to blur the distinction between experiment and model (if there is any). My talk tries to defend the philosophical project of distinguishing models from experiment and to advance the related philosophical debate. I begin with providing a minimalist framework of conceptualizing experimenting and modeling and their mutual relationships. The methods are conceptualized as different types of activities that are characterized by a primary goal, respectively. The minimalist framwork, which should be uncontroversial, suffices to accommodate the first worry. I address the second worry by suggesting several ways how to conceptualize the distinction in a more flexible way. I make a concrete suggestion of how the distinction may be drawn. I use examples from the history of science to argue my case. The talk concentrates and models and experiments, but I will comment on simulations too.

Road environment modeling using robust perspective analysis and recursive Bayesian segmentation

Recently, vision-based advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) have received a new increased interest to enhance driving safety. In particular, due to its high performance–cost ratio, mono-camera systems are arising as the main focus of this field of work. In this paper we present a novel on-board road modeling and vehicle detection system, which is a part of the result of the European I-WAY project. The system relies on a robust estimation of the perspective of the scene, which adapts to the dynamics of the vehicle and generates a stabilized rectified image of the road plane. This rectified plane is used by a recursive Bayesian classi- fier, which classifies pixels as belonging to different classes corresponding to the elements of interest of the scenario. This stage works as an intermediate layer that isolates subsequent modules since it absorbs the inherent variability of the scene. The system has been tested on-road, in different scenarios, including varied illumination and adverse weather conditions, and the results have been proved to be remarkable even for such complex scenarios.

Development of a wake model for wind farms based on an open source CFD solver. Strategies on parabolization and turbulence modeling

Wake effect represents one of the most important aspects to be analyzed at the engineering phase of every wind farm since it supposes an important power deficit and an increase of turbulence levels with the consequent decrease of the lifetime. It depends on the wind farm design, wind turbine type and the atmospheric conditions prevailing at the site. Traditionally industry has used analytical models, quick and robust, which allow carry out at the preliminary stages wind farm engineering in a flexible way. However, new models based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) are needed. These models must increase the accuracy of the output variables avoiding at the same time an increase in the computational time. Among them, the elliptic models based on the actuator disk technique have reached an extended use during the last years. These models present three important problems in case of being used by default for the solution of large wind farms: the estimation of the reference wind speed upstream of each rotor disk, turbulence modeling and computational time. In order to minimize the consequence of these problems, this PhD Thesis proposes solutions implemented under the open source CFD solver OpenFOAM and adapted for each type of site: a correction on the reference wind speed for the general elliptic models, the semi-parabollic model for large offshore wind farms and the hybrid model for wind farms in complex terrain. All the models are validated in terms of power ratios by means of experimental data derived from real operating wind farms.

Ecological-economic modeling for biodiversity management: Potential, pitfalls, and prospects

Ecologists and economists both use models to help develop strategies for biodiversity management. The practical use of disciplinary models, however, can be limited because ecological models tend not to address the socioeconomic dimension of biodiversity management, whereas economic models tend to neglect the ecological dimension. Given these shortcomings of disciplinary models, there is a necessity to combine ecological and economic knowledge into ecological-economic models. It is insufficient if scientists work separately in their own disciplines and combine their knowledge only when it comes to formulating management recommendations. Such an approach does not capture feedback loops between the ecological and the socioeconomic systems. Furthermore, each discipline poses the management problem in its own way and comes up with its own most appropriate solution. These disciplinary solutions, however are likely to be so different that a combined solution considering aspects of both disciplines cannot be found. Preconditions for a successful model-based integration of ecology and economics include (1) an in-depth knowledge of the two disciplines, (2) the adequate identification and framing of the problem to be investigated, and (3) a common understanding between economists and ecologists of modeling and scale. To further advance ecological-economic modeling the development of common benchmarks, quality controls, and refereeing standards for ecological-economic models is desirable.

Modeling naturalistic argumentation in research literatures:representation and interaction design issues

This article characterizes key weaknesses in the ability of current digital libraries to support scholarly inquiry, and as a way to address these, proposes computational services grounded in semiformal models of the naturalistic argumentation commonly found in research literatures. It is argued that a design priority is to balance formal expressiveness with usability, making it critical to coevolve the modeling scheme with appropriate user interfaces for argument construction and analysis. We specify the requirements for an argument modeling scheme for use by untrained researchers and describe the resulting ontology, contrasting it with other domain modeling and semantic web approaches, before discussing passive and intelligent user interfaces designed to support analysts in the construction, navigation, and analysis of scholarly argument structures in a Web-based environment. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Int J Int Syst 22: 17–47, 2007.

Mode-locking intracavity dynamics:modeling nonlinear power and energy fluctuations

Modern high-power, pulsed lasers are driven by strong intracavity fluctuations. Critical in driving the intracavity dynamics is the nontrivial phase profiles generated and their periodic modification from either nonlinear mode-coupling, spectral filtering or dispersion management. Understanding the theoretical origins of the intracavity fluctuations helps guide the design, optimization and construction of efficient, high-power and high-energy pulsed laser cavities. Three specific mode-locking component are presented for enhancing laser energy: waveguide arrays, spectral filtering and dispersion management. Each component drives a strong intracavity dynamics that is captured through various modeling and analytic techniques.

Integrated sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty propagation analysis approaches for supporting hydrological modeling

The successful performance of a hydrological model is usually challenged by the quality of the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty analysis carried out in the modeling exercise and subsequent simulation results. This is especially important under changing climatic conditions where there are more uncertainties associated with climate models and downscaling processes that increase the complexities of the hydrological modeling system. In response to these challenges and to improve the performance of the hydrological models under changing climatic conditions, this research proposed five new methods for supporting hydrological modeling. First, a design of experiment aided sensitivity analysis and parameterization (DOE-SAP) method was proposed to investigate the significant parameters and provide more reliable sensitivity analysis for improving parameterization during hydrological modeling. The better calibration results along with the advanced sensitivity analysis for significant parameters and their interactions were achieved in the case study. Second, a comprehensive uncertainty evaluation scheme was developed to evaluate three uncertainty analysis methods, the sequential uncertainty fitting version 2 (SUFI-2), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Parameter solution (ParaSol) methods. The results showed that the SUFI-2 performed better than the other two methods based on calibration and uncertainty analysis results. The proposed evaluation scheme demonstrated that it is capable of selecting the most suitable uncertainty method for case studies. Third, a novel sequential multi-criteria based calibration and uncertainty analysis (SMC-CUA) method was proposed to improve the efficiency of calibration and uncertainty analysis and control the phenomenon of equifinality. The results showed that the SMC-CUA method was able to provide better uncertainty analysis results with high computational efficiency compared to the SUFI-2 and GLUE methods and control parameter uncertainty and the equifinality effect without sacrificing simulation performance. Fourth, an innovative response based statistical evaluation method (RESEM) was proposed for estimating the uncertainty propagated effects and providing long-term prediction for hydrological responses under changing climatic conditions. By using RESEM, the uncertainty propagated from statistical downscaling to hydrological modeling can be evaluated. Fifth, an integrated simulation-based evaluation system for uncertainty propagation analysis (ISES-UPA) was proposed for investigating the effects and contributions of different uncertainty components to the total propagated uncertainty from statistical downscaling. Using ISES-UPA, the uncertainty from statistical downscaling, uncertainty from hydrological modeling, and the total uncertainty from two uncertainty sources can be compared and quantified. The feasibility of all the methods has been tested using hypothetical and real-world case studies. The proposed methods can also be integrated as a hydrological modeling system to better support hydrological studies under changing climatic conditions. The results from the proposed integrated hydrological modeling system can be used as scientific references for decision makers to reduce the potential risk of damages caused by extreme events for long-term water resource management and planning.

Centrifuge modeling of oblique pipe-soil interaction in dense and loose sand

Due to relative ground movement, buried pipelines experience geotechnical loads. The imposed geotechnical loads may initiate pipeline deformations that affect system serviceability and integrity. Engineering guidelines (e.g., ALA, 2005; Honegger and Nyman, 2001) provide the technical framework to develop idealized structural models to analyze pipe‒soil interaction events and assess pipe mechanical response. The soil behavior is modeled using discrete springs that represent the geotechnical loads per unit pipe length developed during the interaction event. Soil forces are defined along three orthogonal directions (i.e., axial, lateral and vertical) to analyze the response of pipelines. Nonlinear load-displacement relationships of soil defined by a spring, is independent of neighboring spring elements. However, recent experimental and numerical studies demonstrate significant coupling effects during oblique (i.e., not along one of the orthogonal axes) pipe‒soil interaction events. In the present study, physical modeling using a geotechnical centrifuge was conducted to improve the current understanding of soil load coupling effects of buried pipes in loose and dense sand. A section of pipeline, at shallow burial depth, was translated through the soil at different oblique angles in the axial-lateral plane. The force exerted by the soil on pipe is critically examined to assess the significance of load coupling effects and establish a yield envelope. The displacements required to soil yield force are also examined to assess potential coupling in mobilization distance. A set of laboratory tests were conducted on the sand used for centrifuge modeling to find the stress-strain behavior of sand, which was used to examine the possible mechanisms of centrifuge model test. The yield envelope, deformation patterns, and interpreted failure mechanisms obtained from centrifuge modeling are compared with other physical modeling and numerical simulations available in the literature.

Passivity Framework for Modeling, Composing and Mitigating Cyber Attacks

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Gene Expression Complex Networks: Synthesis, Identification, and Analysis

Thanks to recent advances in molecular biology, allied to an ever increasing amount of experimental data, the functional state of thousands of genes can now be extracted simultaneously by using methods such as cDNA microarrays and RNA-Seq. Particularly important related investigations are the modeling and identification of gene regulatory networks from expression data sets. Such a knowledge is fundamental for many applications, such as disease treatment, therapeutic intervention strategies and drugs design, as well as for planning high-throughput new experiments. Methods have been developed for gene networks modeling and identification from expression profiles. However, an important open problem regards how to validate such approaches and its results. This work presents an objective approach for validation of gene network modeling and identification which comprises the following three main aspects: (1) Artificial Gene Networks (AGNs) model generation through theoretical models of complex networks, which is used to simulate temporal expression data; (2) a computational method for gene network identification from the simulated data, which is founded on a feature selection approach where a target gene is fixed and the expression profile is observed for all other genes in order to identify a relevant subset of predictors; and (3) validation of the identified AGN-based network through comparison with the original network. The proposed framework allows several types of AGNs to be generated and used in order to simulate temporal expression data. The results of the network identification method can then be compared to the original network in order to estimate its properties and accuracy. Some of the most important theoretical models of complex networks have been assessed: the uniformly-random Erdos-Renyi (ER), the small-world Watts-Strogatz (WS), the scale-free Barabasi-Albert (BA), and geographical networks (GG). The experimental results indicate that the inference method was sensitive to average degree k variation, decreasing its network recovery rate with the increase of k. The signal size was important for the inference method to get better accuracy in the network identification rate, presenting very good results with small expression profiles. However, the adopted inference method was not sensible to recognize distinct structures of interaction among genes, presenting a similar behavior when applied to different network topologies. In summary, the proposed framework, though simple, was adequate for the validation of the inferred networks by identifying some properties of the evaluated method, which can be extended to other inference methods.

Enhanced aeroelastic energy harvesting by exploiting combined nonlinearities: theory and experiment

Converting aeroelastic vibrations into electricity for low power generation has received growing attention over the past few years. In addition to potential applications for aerospace structures, the goal is to develop alternative and scalable configurations for wind energy harvesting to use in wireless electronic systems. This paper presents modeling and experiments of aeroelastic energy harvesting using piezoelectric transduction with a focus on exploiting combined nonlinearities. An airfoil with plunge and pitch degrees of freedom (DOF) is investigated. Piezoelectric coupling is introduced to the plunge DOF while nonlinearities are introduced through the pitch DOF. A state-space model is presented and employed for the simulations of the piezoaeroelastic generator. A two-state approximation to Theodorsen aerodynamics is used in order to determine the unsteady aerodynamic loads. Three case studies are presented. First the interaction between piezoelectric power generation and linear aeroelastic behavior of a typical section is investigated for a set of resistive loads. Model predictions are compared to experimental data obtained from the wind tunnel tests at the flutter boundary. In the second case study, free play nonlinearity is added to the pitch DOF and it is shown that nonlinear limit-cycle oscillations can be obtained not only above but also below the linear flutter speed. The experimental results are successfully predicted by the model simulations. Finally, the combination of cubic hardening stiffness and free play nonlinearities is considered in the pitch DOF. The nonlinear piezoaeroelastic response is investigated for different values of the nonlinear-to-linear stiffness ratio. The free play nonlinearity reduces the cut-in speed while the hardening stiffness helps in obtaining persistent oscillations of acceptable amplitude over a wider range of airflow speeds. Such nonlinearities can be introduced to aeroelastic energy harvesters (exploiting piezoelectric or other transduction mechanisms) for performance enhancement.

Spatio-temporal variability behavior of land surface soil water content in shrub- and grass-land

The knowledge of the relationship between spatial variability of the surface soil water content (theta) and its mean across a spatial domain (theta(m)) is crucial for hydrological modeling and understanding soil water dynamics at different scales. With the aim to compare the soil moisture dynamics and variability between the two land uses and to explore the relationship between the spatial variability of theta and theta(m), this study analyzed sets of surface theta measurements performed with an impedance soil moisture probe, collected 136 times during a period of one year in two transects covering different land uses, i.e., korshinsk peashrub transect (KPT) and bunge needlegrass transect (BNT), in a watershed of the Loess Plateau, China. Results showed that the temporal pattern of theta behaved similarly for the two land uses, with both relative wetter soils during wet period and relative drier soils during dry period recognized in BNT. Soil moisture tended to be temporally stable among different dates, and more stable patterns could be observed for dates with more similar soil water conditions. The magnitude of the spatial variation of theta in KPT was greater than that in ENT. For both land uses, the standard deviation (SD) of theta in general increased as theta(m) increased, a behavior that could be well described with a natural logarithmic function. Convex relationship of CV and theta(m) and the maximum CV for both land uses (43.5% in KPT and 41.0% in BNT) can, therefore, be ascertained. Geostatistical analysis showed that the range in KPT (9.1 m) was shorter than that in BNT (15.1 m). The nugget effects, the structured variability, hence the total variability increased as theta(m) increased. For both land uses, the spatial dependency in general increased with increasing theta(m). 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.