Comparing the economic impacts of Asian integration by computational simulation analysis

The Geographical Simulation Model developed by IDE-JETRO (IDE-GSM) is a computer simulation model based on spatial economics. IDE-GSM enables us to predict the economic impacts of various trade and transport facilitation measures. Here, we mainly compare the prioritized projects of the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC) and the Comprehensive Asia Development Plan (CADP). MPAC focus on specific hard or soft infrastructure projects that connect one ASEAN member state to another while the CADP emphasizes the importance of economic corridors or linkages between a large cluster and another cluster. As compared with MPAC projects, the simulation analysis shows that CADP projects have much larger positive impacts on ASEAN countries.

Accession clause of TPP : Is it really open?

One of the most important policy questions relating to the future impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership on the global and regional economy is whether other countries in the region, particularly China, will join the partnership. While several commentators have made some observations regarding the future prospects of TPP expansion, little scholarly analysis has been conducted. To go beyond the speculation of a certain country's accession to TPP, we first attempt to generalize the issue before moving on to a specific question. We conduct a comparative analysis of a large number of regional trade agreements for a better understanding of the parameters of RTAs that are critical for membership expansion. This general framework enables us to conduct a systematic examination of specific membership expansion cases, such as China's membership in TPP. The paper also proposes a necessary "accession practice" that truly facilitates new members' participation.

Geoservices for Aeronautical Navigation

Aeronautical charts underlie the representation of aeronautic geographic information that supports pilots in flight. Nevertheless, the charts become complex due to the high density of data and the different kinds of charts that support each phase of flight. These features make difficult using them on board. After conducting a study, with civil Spaniard pilots, that aims to understand and to evaluate their needs related to Geographic Information, it is proposed a solution to implement a platform based on geographic information standards (OGC, ISO) and supported by a distributed Web architecture. This platform facilitates the use, retrieval, updating of information and its exchange among different institutions through private and public users. As a first element to ensure interoperability of information, we suggest an aeronautical metadata profile that sets guidelines and elements for its description. The metadata profile meets the standards set by ICAO, Eurocontrol and ISO. The platform offers three levels of access to data through different types of devices and user profiles. Thus, aeronautical institutions could edit data while pilot is on board accessing digital aeronautical charts through a laptop or Table PC. This paper suggests an alternative and reliable way for distributing aeronautical geoinformation, focusing on specific functions or displaying and querying.

Tibet -- C. Asia

Cross section of the area in Asia starting with Chittagong and Dhaka in the south to Stalinsk [Novokuznetsk, Sakha (Russian Federation)] in the north.

Rulemaking in Super-RTAs: Implications for China and India. Bruegel Working Paper 2014/03, March 2014

The faltering Doha round has led to a renewed focus on large regional trade agreements. There are two super-RTAs in the making in the Asia-Pacific and one in the Atlantic, all with rather ambitious negotiation targets, and presented as alternate means to reset global trade rules and take the multilateral trade liberalisation agenda forward. So what does this development mean for large emerging markets such as China and India that are on the fringes of these regional trade negotiations? Can these agreements become alternate means of pressuring these Asian economies to follow new trade rules set by industrialised countries, especially given the progressive erosion of the policy dominance of industrialised countries and the strong dissenting voice of developing countries in the Doha Round? This paper examines how super-RTAs may emerge as game changers in the multilateral trading system as promulgated by the WTO, and the implications for China and India. The paper analyses the new economic governance system that is likely to emerge given the renewed interest in regionalism, and argues that while the super-RTAs will not be entirely benign in their impact on China and India, rather than forcing these economies to accept the higher new regulatory standards enshrined in the super-RTAs, a distinct possibility in the medium-term is the emergence and entrenchment of a dual regulatory regime in these economies.

Europe's LNG Strategy in the Wider EU Gas Market. CEPS Policy Brief No. 333, October 2015

In its Communication on an Energy Union published in February 2015, the European Commission committed itself to “explore the full potential of liquefied natural gas (LNG), including as a back-up in crisis situations when insufficient gas is coming into Europe through the existing pipeline system” and to address the potential of gas storage in Europe by developing a comprehensive LNG and storage strategy by the end of 2015 or early in 2016. This is a comprehensible move in the current context. Geopolitical tensions between the EU and Russia explain the EU’s willingness to further diversify its supply sources of natural gas to reinforce its long-term energy security on the one hand, and to strengthen its ability to solve future crises on the other hand. Moreover, the current market dynamics could support diversification towards LNG. Increasing the flexibility of LNG trade, decreasing LNG prices and LNG charter rates and an apparent price convergence between the European and the Asia-Pacific LNG imports would all reinforce the economic viability of such a strategy. This Policy Brief makes three main points: • For the LNG and gas storage strategy to work, it needs to be embedded in the realities of the natural gas market. • The key to a successful LNG strategy is to develop sufficient infrastructure. • The LNG strategy needs an innovation component.

The United States dominates global investment banking: does it matter for Europe? Bruegel Policy Contribution 2016/06, March 2016

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the market share of US investment banks is increasing, while that of their European counterparts is declining. We present evidence that US investment banks are on the verge of taking over pole position in European investment banking. Meanwhile, since 2015, Chinese investment banks have overtaken American and European investment banks in the Asia-Pacific market. Credit rating agencies and investment banks are the gatekeepers of the capital markets. The European supervisory institutions can effectively supervise the European operations of these US-managed players. On the political side, we suggest that the European Commission should continue to view its, albeit declining, banking industry as a strategic sector. The Commission, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England should jointly develop a strategic agenda for the EU-US Regulatory Dialogue. Finally, corporates rely on investment banks to issue new securities. We recommend that the big European corporates should cherish the (few) remaining European investment banks, by giving them at least one place in otherwise US- dominated banking syndicates. That could help to avoid complete dependence on US investment banks.

Equity market linkage and multinational trade accords: The case of NAFTA

This paper examines the impact of multinational trade accords on the degree of stock market linkage using NAFTA as a case study. Besides liberalizing trade among the U.S., Canada and Mexico, NAFTA has also sought to strengthen linkage among stock markets of these countries. If successful, this could lessen the appeal of asset diversification across the North American region and promote a higher degree of market efficiency. We assess the possible impact of NAFTA on market linkage using cross-correlations, multivariate price cointegrating systems, speed of convergence, and generalized variance decompositions of unexpected stock returns. The evidence proves robust and consistently indicates intensified equity market linkage since the NAFTA accord. The results also suggest that interdependent goods markets in the region are a primary reason behind the stronger equity market linkage observed in the post-NAFTA period. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost of tobacco-related diseases, including passive smoking, in Hong Kong

Background: Costs of tobacco-related disease can be useful evidence to support tobacco control. In Hong Kong we now have locally derived data on the risks of smoking, including passive smoking. Aim: To estimate the health-related costs of tobacco from both active and passive smoking. Methods: Using local data, we estimated active and passive smoking-attributable mortality, hospital admissions, outpatient, emergency and general practitioner visits for adults and children, use of nursing homes and domestic help, time lost from work due to illness and premature mortality in the productive years. Morbidity risk data were used where possible but otherwise estimates based on mortality risks were used. Utilisation was valued at unit costs or from survey data. Work time lost was valued at the median wage and an additional costing included a value of US$1.3 million for a life lost. Results: In the Hong Kong population of 6.5 million in 1998, the annual value of direct medical costs, long term care and productivity loss was US$532 million for active smoking and US$156 million for passive smoking; passive smoking accounted for 23% of the total costs. Adding the value of attributable lives lost brought the annual cost to US$9.4 billion. Conclusion: The health costs of tobacco use are high and represent a net loss to society. Passive smoking increases these costs by at least a quarter. This quantification of the costs of tobacco provides strong motivation for legislative action on smoke-free areas in the Asia Pacific Region and elsewhere.

Microsatellite markers for the pest fruit fly, Bactrocera papayae (Diptera : Tephritidae) and other Bactrocera species

The dorsalis complex contains some of the most economically important fruit fly pests of the Asia-Pacific regions, including Bactrocera dorsalis, Bactrocera papayae and Bactrocera carambolae. These species are morphologically indistinct and genetically very similar. We describe the development of 12 microsatellite markers isolated from a representative of the dorsalis complex, B. papayae. We show the potential utility of the B. papayae microsatellites and a set of microsatellites isolated from Bactrocera tryoni as population and species markers for the dorsalis complex.

A complex systems approach to the value of ecological resources

A theory of value sits at the core of every school of economic thought and directs the allocation of resources to competing uses. Ecological resources complicate the modem neoclassical approach to determining value due to their complex nature, considerable non-market values and the difficulty in assigning property rights. Application of the market model through economic valuation only provides analytical solutions based on virtual markets, and neither the demand nor supply-side techniques of valuation can adequately consider the complex set of biophysical and ecological relations that lead to the provision of ecosystem goods and services. This paper sets out a conceptual framework for a complex systems approach to the value of ecological resources. This approach is based on there being both an intrinsic quality of ecological resources and a subjective evaluation by the consumer. Both elements are necessary for economic value. This conceptual framework points the way towards a theory of value that incorporates both elements, so has implications for principles by which ecological resources can be allocated. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The fraction of ischaemic heart disease and stroke attributable to smoking in the WHO Pacific and South-East Asian regions

Background: Tobacco will soon be the biggest cause of death worldwide, with the greatest burden being borne by low and middle-income countries where 8/10 smokers now live. Objective: This study aimed to quantify the direct burden of smoking for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) by calculating the population attributable fractions (PAF) for fatal ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke (haemorrhagic and ischaemic) for all 38 countries in the World Health Organization Western Pacific and South East Asian regions. Design and subjects: Sex-specific prevalence of smoking was obtained from existing data. Estimates of the hazard ratio (HR) for IHD and stroke with smoking as an independent risk factor were obtained from the,600 000 adult subjects in the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration (APCSC). HR estimates and prevalence were then used to calculate sex-specific PAF for IHD and stroke by country. Results: The prevalence of smoking in the 33 countries, for which relevant data could be obtained, ranged from 28-82% in males and from 1-65% in females. The fraction of IHD attributable to smoking ranged from 13-33% in males and from < 1-28% in females. The percentage of haemorrhagic stroke attributable to smoking ranged from 4-12% in males and from < 1-9% in females. Corresponding figures for ischaemic stroke were 11-27% in males and < 1-22% in females. Conclusions: Up to 30% of some cardiovascular fatalities can be attributed to smoking. This is likely an underestimate of the current burden of smoking on CVD, given that the smoking epidemic has developed further since many of the studies were conducted.

Tradition, myth and the dilemma of Australian foreign policy

For a middle power with a relatively short history of framing a self determined foreign policy, Australia has actively sought to engage with both its immediate region and the wider world. Elite agreement on this external orientation, however, has by no means entailed consensus on what this orientation might involve in terms of policy. Consequently, two, often conflicting, traditions and their associated myths have informed Australian foreign policy-making. The most enduring tradition shaping foreign policy views Australia as a somewhat isolated bastion of Western civilisation. In this mode Australia's myth is pragmatic, but uncertain and sees Asia as both an opportunity and a potential threat which requires the support and counsel of culturally similar external powers engaged in the region to ensure stability. Against this, an alternative and historically later tradition crafted a foreign policy that advanced Australian independence through engagement with a seemingly monolithic and increasingly prosperous Asia. This paper explores the evolution and limitations of these foreign policy traditions and the myths that sustain them. It further considers what features of these traditions continue to have resonance in a region that has become more fluid and heterogeneous than it was during the Cold War and which requires a foreign policy flexibility that can address this complex and strategically uncertain environment.

Communication in investigative and legal contexts:integrated approaches from forensic psychology, linguistics and law enforcement

Communication in Forensic Contexts provides in-depth coverage of the complex area of communication in forensic situations. Drawing on expertise from forensic psychology, linguistics and law enforcement worldwide, the text bridges the gap between these fields in a definitive guide to best practice. • Offers best practice for understanding and improving communication in forensic contexts, including interviewing of victims, witnesses and suspects, discourse in courtrooms, and discourse via interpreters • Bridges the knowledge gaps between forensic psychology, forensic linguistics and law enforcement, with chapters written by teams bringing together expertise from each field • Published in collaboration with the International Investigative Interviewing Research Group, dedicated to furthering evidence-based practice and practice-based research amongst researchers and practitioners • International, cross-disciplinary team includes contributors from North America, Europe and Asia Pacific, and from psychology, linguistics and forensic practice

World knowledge competitiveness index 2008

The 2008 edition of the WKCI compares 145 regions across 19 knowledge economy benchmarks (full data for all indicators across each of the 19 benchmarks is contained in the accompanying Excel spreadsheets). This represents an increase of twenty regions compared to the last edition in 2005: nine from Europe, eight from North America, and three from Asia Pacific. These new regions were selected on the basis of a survey of a wide range of regions appearing to be become more internationally competitive. This year’s report also contains a special chapter on economic development in the three leading Chinese regions.