Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop

Avaliação de desempenho em mercados reguladores de transporte urbano por ônibus :proposição de um modelo aplicável ao caso de Natal

Increased competition in the market of urban transport, characteristic of the Brazilian cities from years 90, has required actions of the managing agencies to ensure the universality of service, enhancing efficiency and consumer welfare. It grows in the Brazilian municipalities, the need to adopt a systematic performance evaluation in terms of management system of indicators and targets appropriate to the regulatory context, which has the purpose of evaluating the accomplishment and compliance by dealers, of the services granted during the contract period, marked by increasingly long periods. The introduction of an index operational performance in permission contracts/concession in urban buses is intended to establish a regulatory performance, giving the contract a pro-competitive feature and to allow the managing agency the systematic and continuous monitoring of the performance of the delegated service to avoid major deviations from desired performance. A performance assessment model of public transportation companies by bus, and applicable to the case of Natal is proposed. Sought to add the particularities found in the transport system in order to assess the performance of enterprises, contribute to improving the service quality to the population and enable decision-makers a detailed knowledge of the behavior of the licensees

Balance Preliminar de las Economías de América Latina y el Caribe 2006

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Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe 2010-2011: modalidades de inserción externa y desafíos de política macroeconómica en una economía mundial turbulenta

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El comercio exterior de productos agropecuarios latinoamericanos = Special study on trade in agricultural commodities in Latin America

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La Inversión Extranjera en América Latina y el Caribe 1996

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Panorama de la Inserción Internacional de América Latina y el Caribe 1997

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Panorama de la Inserción Internacional de América Latina y el Caribe 1998

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Ensayos sobre el financiamiento de la seguridad social en salud: los casos de Estados Unidos, Canadá, Argentina, Chile y Colombia

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Integración regional, desarrollo y equidad

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Reformas económicas, crecimiento y empleo: los mercados de trabajo en América Latina y el Caribe

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Los países latinoamericanos con capacidad farmoquímica propia: Argentina, Brasil, México

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En búsqueda de efectividad, eficiencia y equidad: las políticas del mercado de trabajo y los instrumentos de su evaluación

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Crecimiento esquivo y volatilidad financiera

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Basilea II: su impacto en los mercados emergentes y su economía política

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