886 resultados para Managing Risk: Identifying and Controlling Losses and Assuming Risks from Perils


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BACKGROUND Potentially avoidable risk factors continue to cause unnecessary disability and premature death in older people. Health risk assessment (HRA), a method successfully used in working-age populations, is a promising method for cost-effective health promotion and preventive care in older individuals, but the long-term effects of this approach are unknown. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of an innovative approach to HRA and counselling in older individuals for health behaviours, preventive care, and long-term survival. METHODS AND FINDINGS This study was a pragmatic, single-centre randomised controlled clinical trial in community-dwelling individuals aged 65 y or older registered with one of 19 primary care physician (PCP) practices in a mixed rural and urban area in Switzerland. From November 2000 to January 2002, 874 participants were randomly allocated to the intervention and 1,410 to usual care. The intervention consisted of HRA based on self-administered questionnaires and individualised computer-generated feedback reports, combined with nurse and PCP counselling over a 2-y period. Primary outcomes were health behaviours and preventive care use at 2 y and all-cause mortality at 8 y. At baseline, participants in the intervention group had a mean ± standard deviation of 6.9 ± 3.7 risk factors (including unfavourable health behaviours, health and functional impairments, and social risk factors) and 4.3 ± 1.8 deficits in recommended preventive care. At 2 y, favourable health behaviours and use of preventive care were more frequent in the intervention than in the control group (based on z-statistics from generalised estimating equation models). For example, 70% compared to 62% were physically active (odds ratio 1.43, 95% CI 1.16-1.77, p = 0.001), and 66% compared to 59% had influenza vaccinations in the past year (odds ratio 1.35, 95% CI 1.09-1.66, p = 0.005). At 8 y, based on an intention-to-treat analysis, the estimated proportion alive was 77.9% in the intervention and 72.8% in the control group, for an absolute mortality difference of 4.9% (95% CI 1.3%-8.5%, p = 0.009; based on z-test for risk difference). The hazard ratio of death comparing intervention with control was 0.79 (95% CI 0.66-0.94, p = 0.009; based on Wald test from Cox regression model), and the number needed to receive the intervention to prevent one death was 21 (95% CI 12-79). The main limitations of the study include the single-site study design, the use of a brief self-administered questionnaire for 2-y outcome data collection, the unavailability of other long-term outcome data (e.g., functional status, nursing home admissions), and the availability of long-term follow-up data on mortality for analysis only in 2014. CONCLUSIONS This is the first trial to our knowledge demonstrating that a collaborative care model of HRA in community-dwelling older people not only results in better health behaviours and increased use of recommended preventive care interventions, but also improves survival. The intervention tested in our study may serve as a model of how to implement a relatively low-cost but effective programme of disease prevention and health promotion in older individuals. TRIAL REGISTRATION International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number: ISRCTN 28458424.

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BACKGROUND In a phase 3, randomised, non-inferiority trial, accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI) for patients with stage 0, I, and IIA breast cancer who underwent breast-conserving treatment was compared with whole-breast irradiation. Here, we present 5-year follow-up results. METHODS We did a phase 3, randomised, non-inferiority trial at 16 hospitals and medical centres in seven European countries. 1184 patients with low-risk invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ treated with breast-conserving surgery were centrally randomised to either whole-breast irradiation or APBI using multicatheter brachytherapy. The primary endpoint was local recurrence. Analysis was done according to treatment received. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00402519. FINDINGS Between April 20, 2004, and July 30, 2009, 551 patients had whole-breast irradiation with tumour-bed boost and 633 patients received APBI using interstitial multicatheter brachytherapy. At 5-year follow-up, nine patients treated with APBI and five patients receiving whole-breast irradiation had a local recurrence; the cumulative incidence of local recurrence was 1·44% (95% CI 0·51-2·38) with APBI and 0·92% (0·12-1·73) with whole-breast irradiation (difference 0·52%, 95% CI -0·72 to 1·75; p=0·42). No grade 4 late side-effects were reported. The 5-year risk of grade 2-3 late side-effects to the skin was 3·2% with APBI versus 5·7% with whole-breast irradiation (p=0·08), and 5-year risk of grade 2-3 subcutaneous tissue late side-effects was 7·6% versus 6·3% (p=0·53). The risk of severe (grade 3) fibrosis at 5 years was 0·2% with whole-breast irradiation and 0% with APBI (p=0·46). INTERPRETATION The difference between treatments was below the relevance margin of 3 percentage points. Therefore, adjuvant APBI using multicatheter brachytherapy after breast-conserving surgery in patients with early breast cancer is not inferior to adjuvant whole-breast irradiation with respect to 5-year local control, disease-free survival, and overall survival. FUNDING German Cancer Aid.

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Background Lack of donor organs remains a major obstacle in organ transplantation. Our aim was to evaluate (1) the association between engaging in high-risk recreational activities and attitudes toward organ donation and (2) the degree of reciprocity between organ acceptance and donation willingness in young men. Methods A 17-item, close-ended survey was offered to male conscripts ages 18 to 26 years in all Swiss military conscription centers. Predictors of organ donation attitudes were assessed in bivariate analyses and multiple logistic regression. Reciprocity of the intentions to accept and to donate organs was assessed by means of donor card status. Results In 1559 responses analyzed, neither motorcycling nor practicing extreme sports reached significant association with donor card holder status. Family communication about organ donation, student, or academic profession and living in a Latin linguistic region were predictors of positive organ donation attitudes, whereas residence in a German-speaking region and practicing any religion predicted reluctance. Significantly more respondents were willing to accept than to donate organs, especially among those without family communication concerning organ donation. Conclusions For the first time, it was shown that high-risk recreational activities do not influence organ donation attitudes. Second, a considerable discrepancy in organ donation reciprocity was identified. We propose that increasing this reciprocity could eventually increase organ donation rates.

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Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a grey-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a BMD-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables and outcomes during follow up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% CI: 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR 1.32, 95%CI: 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95%CI: 1.65, 1.87 vs. 1.70, 95%CI: 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

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PURPOSE The aim of this study was to analyze the patient pool referred to a specialty clinic for implant surgery over a 3-year period. MATERIALS AND METHODS All patients receiving dental implants between 2008 and 2010 at the Department of Oral Surgery and Stomatology were included in the study. As primary outcome parameters, the patients were analyzed according to the following criteria: age, sex, systemic diseases, and indication for therapy. For the inserted implants, the type of surgical procedure, the types of implants placed, postsurgical complications, and early failures were recorded. A logistic regression analysis was performed to identify possible local and systemic risk factors for complications. As a secondary outcome, data regarding demographics and surgical procedures were compared with the findings of a historic study group (2002 to 2004). RESULTS A total of 1,568 patients (792 women and 776 men; mean age, 52.6 years) received 2,279 implants. The most frequent indication was a single-tooth gap (52.8%). Augmentative procedures were performed in 60% of the cases. Tissue-level implants (72.1%) were more frequently used than bone-level implants (27.9%). Regarding dimensions of the implants, a diameter of 4.1 mm (59.7%) and a length of 10 mm (55.0%) were most often utilized. An early failure rate of 0.6% was recorded (13 implants). Patients were older and received more implants in the maxilla, and the complexity of surgical interventions had increased when compared to the patient pool of 2002 to 2004. CONCLUSION Implant therapy performed in a surgical specialty clinic utilizing strict patient selection and evidence-based surgical protocols showed a very low early failure rate of 0.6%.

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Giardia duodenalis is considered the most common protozoan infecting humans worldwide. Molecular characterization of G. duodenalis isolates has revealed the existence of eight groups (assemblages A to H) which differ in their host distribution. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 639 children from La Habana between January and December 2013. Two assemblage-specific PCRs were carried out for the molecular characterization. The overall prevalence of Giardia infection was 11.9%. DNA from 63 of 76 (82.9%) samples was successfully amplified by PCR-tpi, while 58 from 76 (76.3%) were detected by PCRE1-HF. Similar results by both PCRs were obtained in 54 from 76 samples (71%). According to these analyses, assemblage B and mixed assemblages A + B account for most of the Giardia infections in the cohort of children tested. Our current study identified assemblage B as predominant genotype in children infected with Giardia. Univariate analysis indicated that omission of washing hands before eating and keeping dogs at home were significant risk factors for a Giardia infection. In the future, novel molecular tools for a better discrimination of assemblages at the subassemblages level are needed to verify possible correlations between Giardia genotypes and symptomatology of giardiasis.

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Using the directional distance function we study a cross section of 110 countries to examine the efficiency of management of the tradeoffs between pollution and income. The DEA model is reformulated to permit 'reverse disposability' of the bad output. Further, we interpret the optimal solution of the multiplier form of the DEA model as an iso-inefficiency line. This permits us to measure the shadow cost of the bad output for a country that is in the interior, rather than on the frontier of the production possibilities set. We also compare the relative environmental performance of countries in terms of emission intensity adjusted for technical efficiency. Only 10% of the countries are found to be on the frontier. Also, there is considerable inter-country variation in the imputed opportunity cost of CO2 reduction. Further, differences in technical efficiency contribute substantially to differences in the observed levels of CO2 intensity.

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Little is known about the etiology of Achondroplasia (AC), Thanatophoric Dwarfism (TD), and autosomal deletions (CD). These syndromes are due to fully penetrate genetic mutations, yet arise de novo, instead of being inherited. We examined the association between parental demographic characteristics and parental occupations with exposure to ionizing radiation and these birth defects. ^ We conducted a cross-sectional study and two case-control studies using a large database that was created by linking records from Texas Birth Defects Registry, Texas birth certificates and Texas fetal death certificates from 1996 to 2002. The first case-control study was matched on paternal age and examined 73 cases of AC and 43 cases of TD. The second case-control study was unmatched and examined 343 cases of autosomal deletion syndromes. ^ We used a job exposure matrix (JEM) to measure exposures to ionizing radiation in the workplace. This gives an estimate of the intensity and probability of exposure to ionizing radiation for each occupation and industry. ^ The prevalence rate of Achondroplasia, Thanatophoric Dwarfism and autosomal deletions was 0.36 per 10,000, 0.21 per 10,000, and 1.68 per 10,000 births respectively in Texas 1996–2002. ^ Older fathers had a strong increase in the risk of having offspring with AC or TD and a modest increase in the risk of CD. Fathers who were Black or Hispanic were less likely to have infants with AC or TD compared to Whites (adjusted POR=0.61; 95% CI 0.30, 1.26 and 0.44; 95% CI 0.27, 0.88, respectively). Black fathers and Hispanic mothers were also less likely to have infants with CD (adjusted POR=0.54; 95% CI 0.22, 1.35 and 0.62; 95% CI 0.39, 0.97). ^ After adjusting for other parental demographic factors, there was no significant relation between fathers exposure to ionizing radiation in the work place and AC or TD (adjusted OR=0.48; 95% CI 0.19, 1.25) and no significant relation between parental exposure to ionizing radiation in the work place and CD (adjusted OR=1.16; 95% CI 0.73, 1.85). ^ This is the first study to find an association between father's age and TD and CD and paternal race and AC or CD. Parental exposure to radiation for therapeutic or diagnostic indications was not measured, thus it can not be excluded as a cause of these birth defects. ^

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The citizens of Houston, Texas, spend much time commuting. It has repeatedly been named among the “Fattest Cities” by Men’s Fitness Magazine (The fittest and fattest cities in America – Men’s Fitness. ). Obesity is one of its major public health problems as Houstonians often do not engage in enough physical activity to help them maintain their ideal weights. The use of bicycles provides a healthy and ecological alternative to commuting by driving. However, because urban cyclists must often share the roads with motorized vehicles, cyclists are often exposed to high levels of emissions. As vulnerable users of the roadways, urban cyclists also face the threat of injury. Nevertheless, there are some programs that encourage the use of bicycles. Laws and ordinances not only reveal public policy relating to bicycling but are a means to develop policy which can encourage bicycling. ^

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Individuals who do not respond to medical therapy for ulcerative colitis (UC) often undergo proctocolectomy followed by ileal-pouch anal anastomosis (IPAA) in hopes of resolving symptoms associated with UC. Inflammation of the ileal pouch, better known as pouchitis, is the most common complication of the IPAA procedure. The causes and development of pouchitis is not well understood. To better understand pathogenesis of pouchitis, pouch aspirates of patients having undergone IPAA were quantitatively analyzed for fecal IL-8, IL-17, and IL-23 levels. According to published literature IL-8 has been linked to pouchitis whereas IL-17 and IL-23 are associated with intestinal inflammation. The study had 80 participants, 33 patients diagnosed with Crohn's Disease (CD) of the pouch, 19 patients diagnosed with pouchitis, and 28 diagnosed with having normal pouches. Patient characteristics and histopathological findings for all patients were noted and statistically compared in addition to fecal cytokine levels. This study supported previous literature that IL-8 production was associated with pouch inflammation. However, IL-17 and IL-23 levels in both CD of the pouch and pouchitis were not significantly different to the levels noted in normal pouch.^

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During this cross-sectional study, both quantitative and qualitative research methods were used to elucidate the role that household environment and sanitation play in the nutritional status of children in a rural Honduran community. Anthropometric measurements were taken as measures of nutritional status among children under five years of age, while interviews regarding the household environment were conducted with their primary caregivers. Community participatory activities were conducted with primary caregivers, and results from water quality testing were analyzed for E. coli contamination. Anthropometric results were compared using the 1977 NCHS Growth Charts and the 2006 WHO Child Growth Standard to examine the implications of using the new WHO standard. The references showed generally good or excellent agreement between z-score categories, except among height-for-age classifications for males 24-35.9 months and weight-for-age classifications for males older than 24 months. Comparing the proportion of stunted, underweight, and wasted children, using the WHO standard generally resulted in higher proportions of stunting, lower underweight proportions, and higher overweight proportions. Logistic regression was used to determine which household and sanitation factors most influenced the growth of children. Results suggest only having water from a spring, stream, or other type of surface water as the primary source of drinking water is a significant risk factor for stunting. A protective association was seen between the household wealth index and stunting. Through participatory activities, the community provided insight on health issues important for improving child health. These activities yielded findings to be harnessed as a powerful resource to unify efforts for change. The qualitative findings were triangulated with the quantitative interview and water testing results to provide intervention recommendations for the community and its primary health care clinic. Recommendations include educating the community on best water consumption practices and encouraging the completion of at least some primary education for primary caregivers to improve child health. It is recommended that a community health worker program be developed to support and implement community interventions to improve water use and household sanitation behaviors and to encourage the involvement of the community in targeting and guiding successful interventions. ^

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Earlier age at puberty is a known risk factor for breast cancer and suspected to influence prostate cancer; yet few studies have assessed early life risk factors for puberty. The overall objectives was to determine the relationship between birth-weight-for-gestational-age (BWGA), weight gain in infancy and pubertal status in girls and boys at 10.8 and 11.8 years and who were born of preeclamptic (PE) and normotensive (NT) mothers. Data for this study were collected from hospital and public health medical records and at a follow-up visit at 10.8 and 11.8 years for girls and boys, respectively. We used stratified analysis and multivariable logistic regression modeling to assess effect measure modifier and to determine the relationship between BWGA, weight gain in infancy and childhood and pubertal status, respectively. ^ There was no difference in the relationship between BWGA and pubertal status by maternal PE status for girls and boys; however, there was a non-significant increase in the odds of having been born small-for-gestational-age (SGA) in girls who were pubertal for breast or pubic hair Tanner stage 2+ compared to those who B1 or PH1. In contrast, boys who were pubertal for genital and pubic hair Tanner stage 2+ had lower odds of having been born SGA than those who were prepubertal for G1 or PH1. ^ In girls who were pubertal for breast development, the odds of having gained one additional unit SD for weight was highest between 3 to 6 months and 6-12 months for those who were B2+ vs. B1. For pubic hair development, weight gain between 6-12 months had the greatest effect for girls of PE mothers only. In boys, there were no statistically significant associations between weight gain and genital Tanner stage at any of the intervals; however, weight gain between 3-6 months did affect pubic hair tanner stage in boys of NT mothers. This study provide important evidence regarding the role of SGA and weight gain at specific age intervals on puberty; however, larger studies need to shed light on modifiable exposures for behavioral interventions in pregnancy, postpartum and in childhood.^

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Periodontal diseases (PD) are infectious, inflammatory, and tissue destructive events which affect the periodontal ligament that surround and support the teeth. Periodontal diseases are the major cause of tooth loss after age 35, with gingivitis and periodontitis affecting 75% of the adult population. A select group of bacterial organisms are associated with periodontal pathogenesis. There is a direct association between oral hygiene and prevention of PD. The importance of genetic differences and host immune response capabilities in determining host, susceptibility or resistance to PD has not been established. This study examined the risk factors and serum (humoral) immune response to periodontal diseased-associated pathogens in a 55 to 80+ year old South Texas study sample with PD. This study sample was described by: age, sex, ethnicity, the socioeconomic factors marital status, income and occupation, IgG, IgA, IgM immunoglobulin status, and the autoimmune response markers rheumatoid factor (RF) and antinuclear antibody (ANA). These variables were used to determine the risk factors associated with development of PD. Serum IgG, IgA, IgM antibodies to bacterial antigens provided evidence for disease exposure.^ A causal model for PD was constructed from associations for risk factors (ethnicity, marital status, income, and occupation) with dental exam and periodontitis. The multiple correlation between PD and ethnicity, income and dental exam was significant. Hispanics of low income were least likely to have had a dental exam in the last year and most likely to have PD. The etiologic agents for PD, as evidenced by elevated humoral antibody responses, were the Gram negative microorganisms Bacteroides gingivalis, serotypes FDC381 and SUNYaBA7A1-28, and Wolinella recta. Recommendation for a PD prevention and control program are provided. ^