Contagion or Interdependence in the recent Global Financial Crisis? An application to the stock markets using unconditional cross-market correlations

We consider stock market contagion as a significant increase in cross-market linkages after a shock to one country or group of countries. Under this definition we study if contagion occurred from the U.S. Financial Crisis to the rest of the major stock markets in the world by using the adjusted (unconditional) correlation coefficient approach (Forbes and Rigobon, 2002) which consists of testing if average crossmarket correlations increase significantly during the relevant period of turmoil. We would not reject the null hypothesis of interdependence in favour of contagion if the increase in correlation only suggests a continuation of high linkages in all state of the world. Moreover, if contagion occurs, this would justify the intervention of the IMF and the suddenly portfolio restructuring during the period under study.

Evaluating thermal treeline indicators based on air and soil temperature using an air-to-soil temperature transfer model

In recent research, both soil (root-zone) and air temperature have been used as predictors for the treeline position worldwide. In this study, we intended to (a) test the proposed temperature limitation at the treeline, and (b) investigate effects of season length for both heat sum and mean temperature variables in the Swiss Alps. As soil temperature data are available for a limited number of sites only, we developed an air-to-soil transfer model (ASTRAMO). The air-to-soil transfer model predicts daily mean root-zone temperatures (10cm below the surface) at the treeline exclusively from daily mean air temperatures. The model using calibrated air and root-zone temperature measurements at nine treeline sites in the Swiss Alps incorporates time lags to account for the damping effect between air and soil temperatures as well as the temporal autocorrelations typical for such chronological data sets. Based on the measured and modeled root-zone temperatures we analyzed. the suitability of the thermal treeline indicators seasonal mean and degree-days to describe the Alpine treeline position. The root-zone indicators were then compared to the respective indicators based on measured air temperatures, with all indicators calculated for two different indicator period lengths. For both temperature types (root-zone and air) and both indicator periods, seasonal mean temperature was the indicator with the lowest variation across all treeline sites. The resulting indicator values were 7.0 degrees C +/- 0.4 SD (short indicator period), respectively 7.1 degrees C +/- 0.5 SD (long indicator period) for root-zone temperature, and 8.0 degrees C +/- 0.6 SD (short indicator period), respectively 8.8 degrees C +/- 0.8 SD (long indicator period) for air temperature. Generally, a higher variation was found for all air based treeline indicators when compared to the root-zone temperature indicators. Despite this, we showed that treeline indicators calculated from both air and root-zone temperatures can be used to describe the Alpine treeline position.

Is there an advantage to be gained from adding digital image cytometry of brush cytology to a standard biopsy protocol in patients with Barrett's esophagus?

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: The current gold standard in Barrett's esophagus monitoring consists of four-quadrant biopsies every 1-2 cm in accordance with the Seattle protocol. Adding brush cytology processed by digital image cytometry (DICM) may further increase the detection of patients with Barrett's esophagus who are at risk of neoplasia. The aim of the present study was to assess the additional diagnostic value and accuracy of DICM when added to the standard histological analysis in a cross-sectional multicenter study of patients with Barrett's esophagus in Switzerland. METHODS: One hundred sixty-four patients with Barrett's esophagus underwent 239 endoscopies with biopsy and brush cytology. DICM was carried out on 239 cytology specimens. Measures of the test accuracy of DICM (relative risk, sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios) were obtained by dichotomizing the histopathology results (high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma vs. all others) and DICM results (aneuploidy/intermediate pattern vs. diploidy). RESULTS: DICM revealed diploidy in 83% of 239 endoscopies, an intermediate pattern in 8.8%, and aneuploidy in 8.4%. An intermediate DICM result carried a relative risk (RR) of 12 and aneuploidy a RR of 27 for high-grade dysplasia/adenocarcinoma. Adding DICM to the standard biopsy protocol, a pathological cytometry result (aneuploid or intermediate) was found in 25 of 239 endoscopies (11%; 18 patients) with low-risk histology (no high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma). During follow-up of 14 of these 18 patients, histological deterioration was seen in 3 (21%). CONCLUSION: DICM from brush cytology may add important information to a standard biopsy protocol by identifying a subgroup of BE-patients with high-risk cellular abnormalities.

An ontology to clarify homology-related concepts.

Although homology is a fundamental concept in biology and is one of the shared channels of communication universal to all biology, it is difficult to find a consensus definition. Indeed, the interpretations of homology have changed as biology has progressed. New terms, such as paramorphism, have been introduced into the literature with mixed success. In addition, different research fields operate with different definitions of homology, for example the mechanistic usage of evo-devo is not strictly historical and would not be acceptable in cladistics. This makes a global understanding of homology complex, whereas the integration of evolutionary concepts into bioinformatics and genomics is increasingly important. We propose an ontology organizing homology and related concepts and hope this solution will also facilitate the integration and sharing of knowledge among the community.

Creation and validation of an instrument to identify nursing activities in pediatric wards: information for determining workload

The aim of this study was to develop and validate an instrument for identifying nursing activities performed in a pediatric ward and to provide a basis for defining the workload of these units. The instrument was developed by selecting the activities relevant to pediatric nursing from the Nursing Intervention Classification and then submitting them to a panel of judges for validation. The panel considered the selected activities relevant and representative of pediatric nursing practice. Now that representative activities for the nursing workload have been identified, we envision new studies to verify their usefulness in practice. Determining the amount of time each activity takes to perform will help to develop a system for measuring the workloads of nursing teams in pediatric wards.

Prevalence of obesity and overweight and associated nutritional factors in a population-based Swiss sample: an opportunity to analyze the impact of three different European cultural roots.

PURPOSE: Obesity represents a growing public health concern worldwide. The latest data in Switzerland rely on self-reported body mass index (BMI), leading to underestimation of prevalence. We reassessed the prevalence of obesity and overweight in a sample of the Swiss population using measured BMI and waist circumference (WC) and explored the association with nutritional factors and living in different linguistic-cultural regions. METHODS: Data of 1,505 participants of a cross-sectional population-based survey in the three linguistic regions of Switzerland were analyzed. BMI and WC were measured, and a 24-h urine collection was performed to evaluate dietary sodium, potassium and protein intake. RESULTS: The prevalence of overweight, obesity and abdominal obesity was 32.2, 14.2 and 33.6 %, respectively. Significant differences were observed in the regional distribution, with a lower prevalence in the Italian-speaking population. Low educational level, current smoking, scarce physical activity and being migrant were associated with an higher prevalence of obesity. Sodium, potassium and protein intake increased significantly across BMI categories. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity and overweight affect almost half of the Swiss adolescents and adults, and the prevalence appears to increase. Using BMI and WC to define obesity led to different prevalences. Differences were furthermore observed across Swiss linguistic-cultural regions, despite a common socio-economic and governmental framework. We found a positive association between obesity and salt intake, with a potential deleterious synergistic effect on cardiovascular risk.

Respiratory effects of an exposure to grain dust among grain workers in the Vaud region (Switzerland)

Introduction: Bioaerosols such as grain dust (GD) elicit direct immunological reactions within the human respiratory system. Workplace-dependent exposure to GD may induce asthma, chronic bronchitis, and hypersensitivity pneumonitis. Aims: To assess the clinical impact of occupational exposure to GD and to determine quantitative biological markers of bioaerosol exposure in grain workers. Methods: This longitudinal study has been conducted from summer 2012 to summer 2013, comprising 6 groups of 30 active workers with different GD exposure patterns (4 groups of grain workers, 2 control groups). Two evaluations at high- and low-exposing seasons take place, during which an occupational and a medical history are questionnaire-assessed, lung function is evaluated by spirometry, airway inflammation is measured by exhaled nitric oxide (eNO) and specific blood IgG and IgE are titrated. Results: The preliminary results are those of 2 of the 4 exposed groups, (harvesters and mill workers), compared to the control groups, at first assessment (n=100). Mean age is 38.4 [years]; 98% are male. Exposed groups differ from controls (p<0.05) in daily contact with animals (57% vs. 40%) and active smoking (39% vs. 11%). Grain workers have more respiratory (50%), nasal (57%), ocular (45%) and dermatologic (36%) occupational symptoms than controls (6.4%, 19%, 16%, 6.4% respectively, p<0.05). Lower mean peak-expiratory-flow (PEF) values (96.1 ± 18.9 vs. 108.2 ± 17.4 [% of predicted], p<0.05) and eNO values (13.9 ± 9.6 vs. 20.5 ± 14.7 [ppm], p<0.05) are observed in the exposed groups. Conclusion: Preliminary results show a higher prevalence of clinical symptoms and a lower mean PEF value in the groups exposed to GD.

Factors associated with the quality of prenatal care: an approach to premature birth

OBJECTIVETo assess the quality of prenatal care in mothers with premature and term births and identify maternal and gestational factors associated with inadequate prenatal care.METHODCross-sectional study collecting data with the pregnant card, hospital records and interviews with mothers living in Maringa-PR. Data were collected from 576 mothers and their born alive infants who were attended in the public service from October 2013 to February 2014, using three different evaluation criteria. The association of prenatal care quality with prematurity was performed by univariate analysis and occurred only at Kessner criteria (CI=1.79;8.02).RESULTSThe indicators that contributed most to the inadequacy of prenatal care were tests of hemoglobin, urine, and fetal presentation. After logistic regression analysis, maternal and gestational variables associated to inadequate prenatal care were combined prenatal (CI=2.93;11.09), non-white skin color (CI=1.11;2.51); unplanned pregnancy (CI=1.34;3.17) and multiparity (CI=1.17;4.03).CONCLUSIONPrenatal care must follow the minimum recommended protocols, more attention is required to black and brown women, multiparous and with unplanned pregnancies to prevent preterm birth and maternal and child morbimortality.

On the distribution of income and worker assignment under intra-firm spillovers, with an application to ideas and networks

We study the earnings structure and the equilibrium assignment of workers when workers exert intra-firm spillovers on each other.We allow for arbitrary spillovers provided output depends on some aggregate index of workers' skill. Despite the possibility of increasing returns to skills, equilibrium typically exists. We show that equilibrium will typically be segregated; that the skill space can be partitioned into a set of segments and any firm hires from only one segment. Next, we apply the model to analyze the effect of information technology on segmentation and the distribution of income. There are two types of human capital, productivity and creativity, i.e. the ability to produce ideas that may be duplicated over a network. Under plausible assumptions, inequality rises and then falls when network size increases, and the poorest workers cannot lose. We also analyze the impact of an improvement in worker quality and of an increased international mobility of ideas.

An attempt to refine rockfall hazard zoning based on the kinetic energy, frequency and fragmentation degree

Rockfall hazard zoning is usually achieved using a qualitative estimate of hazard, and not an absolute scale. In Switzerland, danger maps, which correspond to a hazard zoning depending on the intensity of the considered phenomenon (e.g. kinetic energy for rockfalls), are replacing hazard maps. Basically, the danger grows with the mean frequency and with the intensity of the rockfall. This principle based on intensity thresholds may also be applied to other intensity threshold values than those used in Switzerland for rockfall hazard zoning method, i.e. danger mapping. In this paper, we explore the effect of slope geometry and rockfall frequency on the rockfall hazard zoning. First, the transition from 2D zoning to 3D zoning based on rockfall trajectory simulation is examined; then, its dependency on slope geometry is emphasized. The spatial extent of hazard zones is examined, showing that limits may vary widely depending on the rockfall frequency. This approach is especially dedicated to highly populated regions, because the hazard zoning has to be very fine in order to delineate the greatest possible territory containing acceptable risks.

Solving non-linear stochastic models by parameterizing expectations: An application to asset pricing with production

A new algorithm called the parameterized expectations approach(PEA) for solving dynamic stochastic models under rational expectationsis developed and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed. Thisalgorithm can, in principle, approximate the true equilibrium arbitrarilywell. Also, this algorithm works from the Euler equations, so that theequilibrium does not have to be cast in the form of a planner's problem.Monte--Carlo integration and the absence of grids on the state variables,cause the computation costs not to go up exponentially when the numberof state variables or the exogenous shocks in the economy increase. \\As an application we analyze an asset pricing model with endogenousproduction. We analyze its implications for time dependence of volatilityof stock returns and the term structure of interest rates. We argue thatthis model can generate hump--shaped term structures.

Analysis of the genetic diversity in Metopolophium dirhodum (Walker) (Hemiptera, Aphididae) by RAPD markers

The emergence of host-races within aphids may constitute an obstacle to pest management by means of plant resistance. There are examples of host-races within cereals aphids, but their occurrence in Rose Grain Aphid, Metopolophium dirhodum (Walker, 1849), has not been reported yet. In this work, RAPD markers were used to assess effects of the hosts and geographic distance on the genetic diversity of M. dirhodum lineages. Twenty-three clones were collected on oats and wheat in twelve localitites of southern Brazil. From twenty-seven primers tested, only four primers showed polymorphisms. Fourteen different genotypes were revealed by cluster analysis. Five genotypes were collected only on wheat; seven only on oats and two were collected in both hosts. Genetic and geographical distances among all clonal lineages were not correlated. Analysis of molecular variance showed that some molecular markers are not randomly distributed among clonal lineages collected on oats and on wheat. These results suggest the existence of host-races within M. dirhodum, which should be further investigated using a combination of ecological and genetic data.