Bayesian Analysis for Nonlinear Regression Model Under Skewed Errors, with Application in Growth Curves

We have considered a Bayesian approach for the nonlinear regression model by replacing the normal distribution on the error term by some skewed distributions, which account for both skewness and heavy tails or skewness alone. The type of data considered in this paper concerns repeated measurements taken in time on a set of individuals. Such multiple observations on the same individual generally produce serially correlated outcomes. Thus, additionally, our model does allow for a correlation between observations made from the same individual. We have illustrated the procedure using a data set to study the growth curves of a clinic measurement of a group of pregnant women from an obstetrics clinic in Santiago, Chile. Parameter estimation and prediction were carried out using appropriate posterior simulation schemes based in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Besides the deviance information criterion (DIC) and the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO), we suggest the use of proper scoring rules based on the posterior predictive distribution for comparing models. For our data set, all these criteria chose the skew-t model as the best model for the errors. These DIC and CPO criteria are also validated, for the model proposed here, through a simulation study. As a conclusion of this study, the DIC criterion is not trustful for this kind of complex model.

A dynamic model of price competition with switching and search costs

Em modelos de competição de preços, somente um custo de procura positivo por parte do consumidor não gera equilíbrio com dispersão de preços. Já modelos dinâmicos de switching cost consistentemente geram este fenômeno bastante documentado para preços no varejo. Embora ambas as literaturas sejam vastas, poucos modelos tentaram combinar as duas fricções em um só modelo. Este trabalho apresenta um modelo dinâmico de competição de preços em que consumidores idênticos enfrentam custos de procura e de switching. O equilíbrio gera dispersão nos preços. Ainda, como os consumidores são obrigados a se comprometer com uma amostra fixa de firmas antes dos preços serem definidos, somente dois preços serão considerados antes de cada compra. Este resultado independe do tamanho do custo de procura individual do consumidor.

Using consumer search cost and loyalty to explain dispersion in banking fees

Pode-se observar uma considerável dispersão entre os preços que diferentes bancos comerciais no Brasil cobram por um mesmo pacote homogêneo de serviços— dispersão esta que é sustentada ao longo do tempo. Em uma tentativa de replicar esta observação empírica, foi desenvolvido um simples modelo que lança mão do arcabouço da literatura de custos de procura (search costs) e que baseia-se também na lealdade por parte dos consumidores. Em seguida, dados de preços referentes ao setor bancário brasileiro são aplicados ao modelo desenvolvido e alguns exercícios empíricos são então realizados. Esses exercícios permitem que: (i) os custos de procura incorridos pelos consumidores sejam estimados, ao fixar-se os valores dos demais parâmetros e (ii) as correspondentes perdas de peso-morto que surgem como consequência dos custos de procura incorridos pelos consumidores sejam também estimadas. Quando apenas 80% da população é livre para buscar por bancos que cobrem menores tarifas, à taxa de juros mensal de 0,5%, o valor estimado do custo de procura médio incorrido pelos consumidores chega a 1805,80 BRL, sendo a correspondente perda de peso-morto média na ordem de 233,71 BRL por consumidor.

Mhealth entrepreneurship: an exploratory research for a managerial model for mhealth start ups in low and middle income countries

Since some years, mobile technologies in healthcare (mHealth) stand for the transformational force to improve health issues in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Although several studies have identified the prevailing issue of inconsistent evidence and new evaluation frameworks have been proposed, few have explored the role of entrepreneurship to create disruptive change in a traditionally conservative sector. I argue that improving the effectiveness of mHealth entrepreneurs might increase the adoption of mHealth solutions. Thus, this study aims at proposing a managerial model for the analysis of mHealth solutions from the entrepreneurial perspective in the context of LMICs. I identified the Khoja–Durrani–Scott (KDS) framework as theoretical basis for the managerial model, due to its explicit focus on the context of LMICs. In the subsequent exploratory research I, first, used semi-structured interviews with five specialists in mHealth, local healthcare systems and investment to identify necessary adaptations to the model. The findings of the interviews proposed that especially the economic theme had to be clarified and an additional entrepreneurial theme was necessary. Additionally, an evaluation questionnaire was proposed. In the second phase, I applied the questionnaire to five start-ups, operating in Brazil and Tanzania, and conducted semi-structured interviews with the entrepreneurs to gain practical insights for the theoretical development. Three of five entrepreneurs perceived that the results correlated with the entrepreneurs' expectations of the strengths and weaknesses of the start-ups. Main shortcomings of the model related to the ambiguity of some questions. In addition to the findings for the model, the results of the scores were analyzed. The analysis suggested that across the participating mHealth start-ups the ‘behavioral and socio-technical’ outcomes were the strongest and the ‘policy’ outcomes were the weakest themes. The managerial model integrates several perspectives, structured around the entrepreneur. In order to validate the model, future research may link the development of a start-up with the evolution of the scores in longitudinal case studies or large-scale tests.

Excitations and finite-size properties of an integrable supersymmetric electronic model

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Avaliação longitudinal do impacto da saúde bucal na estratégia saúde da família em Natal

As a result of the financial incentive provided by the GM / MS 1.444, since 2000, Brazil has experienced a substantial increase in the number of oral health services at the Family Health Strategy. There is, however, evidence that these teams have produced qualitatively different experiences which do not translate necessarily into improved quality of life and health. Thus, evaluative research of great importance. This study aims to assess the impact of the Family Health Strategy in oral health in a longitudinal perspective natalense the years 2006 and 2009. This is an intervention study whose design is a community trial in parallel, nearly randomized. The sample consisted of census tracts covered by oral health teams in the Family Health and the Traditional Model (Basic Health Units and non-FHS Program of Community Health Agents and areas not covered.) The sample was determined by drawing ten census tracts to form the experimental group and ten other sectors for the control group by pairing intentional based on socio-economic and geographic. To check the net effect of the intervention was performed multivariate analysis by Poisson regression. As a result of cross-sectional analysis of year 2009, it was found that the effects of the ESF in Natal were satisfactory only for the variables of injuries and for other purposes without and with negative impact on stock coverage reclaimers. However, the longitudinal analysis revealed that the ESB / ESF improved their performance in dealing with grievances, access and coverage of the type of actions and this fact is independent of age, sex and social and economic conditions. In other employees' words are related to the presence of the Family Health Strategy in the region. However it does not say that both models under study (the Family Health Strategy Model and Traditional) are different in terms of performance and it is pertinent to reflect on the need for further development of evaluation studies that use other approaches able to clarify the dynamics of the process whose results can come to the knowledge of the actors responsible for leading the ESF and encourage them to incorporate the assessment in their routine

Proposal of a Transmission Line Model Based on Lumped Elements: An Analytic Solution

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The structure and optical dispersion of the refractive index of tellurite glass

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Exploring community assembly through an individual-based model for trophic interactions

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Vector and axial-vector correlators in a non-local chiral quark model

The behavior of the non-perturbative parts of the isovector-vector and isovector and isosinglet axial-vector correlators at Euclidean momenta is studied in the framework of a covariant chiral quark model with non-local quark-quark interactions. The gauge covariance is ensured with the help of the P-exponents, with the corresponding modification of the quark-current interaction vertices taken into account. The low- and high-momentum behavior of the correlators is compared with the chiral perturbation theory and with the QCD operator product expansion, respectively. The V-A combination of the correlators obtained in the model reproduces quantitatively the ALEPH and OPAL data on hadronic tau decays, transformed into the Euclidean domain via dispersion relations. The predictions for the electromagnetic pi(+/-) - pi(0) mass difference and for the pion electric polarizability are also in agreement with the experimental values. The topological susceptibility of the vacuum is evaluated as a function of the momentum, and its first moment is predicted to be chi'(0) approximate to (50 MeV)(2). In addition, the fulfillment of the Crewther theorem is demonstrated.

Cooper pair dispersion relation for weak to strong coupling

Cooper pairing in two dimensions is analyzed with a set of renormalized equations to determine its binding energy for any fermion number density and all coupling assuming a,generic pairwise residual interfermion interaction. Also considered are Cooper pairs (CP's) with nonzero center-of-mass momentum (CMM) and their binding energy is expanded analytically in powers of the CMM up to quadratic terms. A Fermi-sea-dependent linear term in the CMM dominates the pair excitation energy in weak coupling (also called the BCS regime) while the more familiar quadratic term prevails in strong coupling (the Bose regime). The crossover, though strictly unrelated to BCS theory per se, is studied numerically as it is expected to play a central role in a model of superconductivity as a Bose-Einstein condensation of CPs where the transition temperature vanishes for all dimensionality d less than or equal to 2 for quadratic dispersion, but is nonzero for all d greater than or equal to 1 for linear dispersion.

Linear to quadratic crossover of Cooper-pair dispersion relation

Cooper pairing is studied in three dimensions to determine its binding energy for all coupling using a general separable interfermion interaction. Also considered are Cooper pairs (CPs) with nonzero center-of-mass momentum (CMM). A coupling-independent linear term in the CMM dominates the pair excitation energy in weak coupling and/or high fermion density, while the more familiar quadratic term prevails only in the extreme low-density (i.e., vacuum) limit for any nonzero coupling. The linear-to-quadratic crossover of the CP dispersion relation is analyzed numerically, and is expected to play a central role in a model of superconductivity (and superfluidity) simultaneously accommodating a Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer condensate as well as a Bose-Einstein condensate of CP bosons. (C) 2001 Elsevier B.V. B,V. All rights reserved.

Integrodifference model for blowfly invasion

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Model-independent measurement of the W-boson helicity in top-quark decays at D0

We present the first model-independent measurement of the helicity of W bosons produced in top quark decays, based on a 1 fb(-1) sample of candidate t (t) over bar events in the dilepton and lepton plus jets channels collected by the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron p (p) over bar Collider. We reconstruct the angle theta(*) between the momenta of the down-type fermion and the top quark in the W boson rest frame for each top quark decay. A fit of the resulting cos theta(*) distribution finds that the fraction of longitudinal W bosons f(0)=0.425 +/- 0.166(stat)+/- 0.102(syst) and the fraction of right-handed W bosons f(+)=0.119 +/- 0.090(stat)+/- 0.053(syst), which is consistent at the 30% C.L. with the standard model.

On Nonlinear Dynamics and an Optimal Control Design to a Longitudinal Flight

In this work, we analyzed a bifurcational behavior of a longitudinal flight nonlinear dynamics, taking as an example the F-8 aircraft Crusader. We deal with an analysis of high angles of attack in order to stabilize the oscillations; those were close to the critical angle of the aircraft, in the flight conditions, established. We proposed a linear optimal control design applied to the considered nonlinear aircraft model below angle of stall, taking into account regions of Hopf and saddled noddle bifurcations.