The effect of long term exploitation by the gill net fishery on the multispecies fish stocks in Kainji Lake, Nigeria, 1969-1997

The findings are presented of an assessment made of the gillnet fishery in Kainji Lake, Nigeria from 1969 to the present, on the basis of data sets from commercial and experimental gillnet fishing, with the purpose to detect trends in some key fishery monitoring indicators. During this period, there has been an increase in the number of small meshed nets in the fishery resulting in a shift in the mode to lower mesh sizes; consequently, the average mesh size declined gradually in the fishery. This trend is found to be directly correlated with the decline in the CPUE and mean weight of the fish species. It is argued that the observed trend in CPUE and mean weight is forcing the fishermen to switch effort to gears such as traps which have very small meshes and can indescriminately take all sizes of the fish. It is shown that the catch composition by weight of Citharinus citharus, Lates niloticus and tilapias declined in the gillnet fishery in the late 70's and early 80's. Recent data, from 1994 to 1996, however indicates that C. citharus is recovering, but with declining mean weight. This suggests that the exploitation pattern is shifting to the smaller fish through the use of small meshed nets. In general, however, there has not been drastic changes in species bio-diversity in the Lake as a result of predatory effect and ecosystem overfishing as has happened in other great African Lakes. The species composition since lake formation continued to be dominated by fewer that 20 species. The potential yield for the lake has been estimated to be 32,166 tonnes (excluding clupeids) and the required optimum fishing effort to be 1,814 fishing canoes. In view of the relative stability of the species diversity in the lake and the current fish production level, it is proposed here that this MSY be adopted for all species. This would be achieved with the current effort level in the lake assuming that the efficiency of the fishermen and their gears do not improve. It should be reviewed after 10 or more years of catch and effort data collection. (PDF contains 65 pages)

Kurzinformation zum EU - Projekt: "Mechanisms influencing long term trends in reproductive success and recruitment of Baltic cod : implications for fisheries management"

In July 1994 an internationally coordinated and EU financed multidisciplinary research project about Baltic cod recruitment was started. The primary goals are to identify and describe dominant biotic and abiotic processes affecting the developmental success of early stages and the maturation of cod in the Central Baltic, to incorporate these processes into recruitment models in order to enhance prediction of future stock fluctuations due to environmental pertubations, species interactions and fisheries management directives as a prerequisite for an integrated fish stock assessment in the Central Baltic and to evaluate the feasibility and possible effects of stock enhancement programs on stock and recruitment and providing the biological basis for assessing their economic value.

Some statistical aspects of the long-term gill net monitoring programme for pike Esox lucius in Windermere (English Lake District)

For more than 55 years, data have been collected on the population of pike Esox lucius in Windermere, first by the Freshwater Biological Association (FBA) and, since 1989, by the Institute of Freshwater Ecology (IFE) of the NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. The aim of this article is to explore some methodological and statistical issues associated with the precision of pike gill net catches and catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data, further to those examined by Bagenal (1972) and especially in the light of the current deployment within the Windermere long-term sampling programme. Specifically, consideration is given to the precision of catch estimates from gill netting, including the effects of sampling different locations, the effectiveness of sampling for distinguishing between years, and the effects of changing fishing effort.

Long-term natural acidification of upland sites in Cumbria: Evidence from post-glacial lake sediments

Studies by the Freshwater Biological Association over the last 25 years have supplied data relevant to the levels of acidity in local soils and water before the onset of industrial pollution and current interest in acid rain. This article reviews published analysis from cores of lake sediments, in or near the catchment of the River Duddon. Electron spin resonance spectra of humic acids and iodine values confirm evidence from pollen analysis for a history of progressive acidification of the source material of lake sediments since before 5000 radiocarbon years, in upland catchments of the Lake District. Processes involved included: removal of basic ions from soils by rainfall, the effects of which were intensified by removal by man of deciduous forest; acidification of soils and waters by decomposition products of Calluna and further acidification of waters by Sphagnum species which colonized habitats where drainage became impeded by paludification processes.

Is there a subgroup of long-term evolution among patients with advanced lung cancer?: Hints from the analysis of survival curves from cancer registry data

Background: Recently, with the access of low toxicity biological and targeted therapies, evidence of the existence of a long-term survival subpopulation of cancer patients is appearing. We have studied an unselected population with advanced lung cancer to look for evidence of multimodality in survival distribution, and estimate the proportion of long-term survivors. Methods: We used survival data of 4944 patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) stages IIIb-IV at diagnostic, registered in the National Cancer Registry of Cuba (NCRC) between January 1998 and December 2006. We fitted one-component survival model and two-component mixture models to identify short-and long-term survivors. Bayesian information criterion was used for model selection. Results: For all of the selected parametric distributions the two components model presented the best fit. The population with short-term survival (almost 4 months median survival) represented 64% of patients. The population of long-term survival included 35% of patients, and showed a median survival around 12 months. None of the patients of short-term survival was still alive at month 24, while 10% of the patients of long-term survival died afterwards. Conclusions: There is a subgroup showing long-term evolution among patients with advanced lung cancer. As survival rates continue to improve with the new generation of therapies, prognostic models considering short-and long-term survival subpopulations should be considered in clinical research.

The Spanish Pension System: Overview and Long-Term Projections

In the middle of the so-called pension crisis, the ageing of population and the sharp decrease in affiliations to Social Security are threatening the well-functioning of the Spanish public pension system. The purpose of this paper is to present the main challenges to be faced by the Spanish pension system, as well as to shed light on the main determinants that will condition the evolution of pension expenditure over GDP along the following decades. This quantitative analysis, which considers the 2011 and 2013 pension reforms, uses the latest data on the Spanish demographic, labor market and institutional factors in order to project the evolution of the system from the expenditure side up to 2060. For the purpose of analyzing the dynamics and the underlying drivers of pension expenditure, the so-called aggregate accounting approach will be utilized. The alternative scenarios proposed allow for exploring the robustness of the results within the baseline scenario, which constitutes the reference point of projections in the exercise. The analysis concludes that, by the end of the projected period, Spain will count on a similar public pension expenditure ratio as the current one.

Population structure, long-term connectivity, and effective size of mutton snapper (Lutjanus analis) in the Caribbean Sea and Florida Keys

Genetic structure and average long-term connectivity and effective size of mutton snapper (Lutjanus analis) sampled from offshore localities in the U.S. Caribbean and the Florida Keys were assessed by using nuclear-encoded microsatellites and a fragment of mitochondrial DNA. No significant differences in allele, genotype (microsatellites), or haplotype (mtDNA) distributions were detected; tests of selective neutrality (mtDNA) were nonsignificant after Bonferroni correction. Heuristic estimates of average long-term rate of migration (proportion of migrant individuals/generation) between geographically adjacent localities varied from 0.0033 to 0.0054, indicating that local subpopulations could respond independently of environmental perturbations. Estimates of average longterm effective population sizes varied from 341 to 1066 and differed significantly among several of the localities. These results indicate that over time larval drift and interregional adult movement may not be sufficient to maintain population sustainability across the region and that there may be different demographic stocks at some of the localities studied. The estimate of long-term effective population size at the locality offshore of St. Croix was below the minimum threshold size considered necessary to maintain the equilibrium between the loss of adaptive genetic variance from genetic drift and its replacement by mutation. Genetic variability in mutton snapper likely is maintained at the intraregional level by aggregate spawning and random mating of local populations. This feature is perhaps ironic in that aggregate spawning also renders mutton snapper especially vulnerable to overexploitation.

Long-Term Burden and Respiratory Effects of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Hospitalization in Preterm Infants — The SPRING Study

The health status of premature infants born 32(1)-35(0) weeks' gestational age (wGA) hospitalized for RSV infection in the first year of life (cases; n = 125) was compared to that of premature infants not hospitalized for RSV (controls; n = 362) through 6 years. The primary endpoints were the percentage of children with wheezing between 2-6 years and lung function at 6 years of age. Secondary endpoints included quality of life, healthcare resource use, and allergic sensitization. A significantly higher proportion of cases than controls experienced recurrent wheezing through 6 years of age (46.7% vs. 27.4%; p = 0.001). The vast majority of lung function tests appeared normal at 6 years of age in both cohorts. In children with pulmonary function in the lower limit of normality (FEV1 Z-score [-2; -1]), wheezing was increased, particularly for cases vs. controls (72.7% vs. 18.9%, p = 0.002). Multivariate analysis revealed the most important factor for wheezing was RSV hospitalization. Quality of life on the respiratory subscale of the TAPQOL was significantly lower (p = 0.001) and healthcare resource utilization was significantly higher (p<0.001) in cases than controls. This study confirms RSV disease is associated with wheezing in 32-35 wGA infants through 6 years of age.

Long-Term Epidemiology of Streptococcus pneumoniae Serogroup 6 in a Region of Southern Europe with Special Reference to Serotype 6E

Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 6E has recently been described, but its long-term epidemiology is not well known. From 1981-2013, 704 serogroup 6 clinical isolates were obtained in Gipuzkoa, Basque Country, Spain. All invasive and one in four non-invasive isolates were included. Overall, 75, 97, 51 and 45 serotypes 6A, 6B, 6C and 6E isolates, respectively, were detected. No serotype 6D isolates were identified. The prevalence of serotypes 6E and 6B, but not that of serotypes 6A and 6C, declined after the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. Serotype 6E isolates showed the highest resistance rate. Most serotype 6E isolates were ST90.