Simulated long-term climate response to idealized solar geoengineering

Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a potential means to counteract anthropogenic climate change, yet it is unknown how such climate intervention might affect the Earth's climate on the millennial time scale. Here we use the HadCM3L model to conduct a 1000year sunshade geoengineering simulation in which solar irradiance is uniformly reduced by 4% to approximately offset global mean warming from an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2. During the 1000year period, modeled global climate, including temperature, hydrological cycle, and ocean circulation of the high-CO2 simulation departs substantially from that of the control preindustrial simulation, whereas the climate of the geoengineering simulation remains much closer to that of the preindustrial state with little drift. The results of our study do not support the hypothesis that nonlinearities in the climate system would cause substantial drift in the climate system if solar geoengineering was to be deployed on the timescale of a millennium.

The circadian oscillator gene GIGANTEA mediates a long-term response of the Arabidopsis thaliana circadian clock to sucrose.

Circadian clocks are 24-h timing devices that phase cellular responses; coordinate growth, physiology, and metabolism; and anticipate the day-night cycle. Here we report sensitivity of the Arabidopsis thaliana circadian oscillator to sucrose, providing evidence that plant metabolism can regulate circadian function. We found that the Arabidopsis circadian system is particularly sensitive to sucrose in the dark. These data suggest that there is a feedback between the molecular components that comprise the circadian oscillator and plant metabolism, with the circadian clock both regulating and being regulated by metabolism. We used also simulations within a three-loop mathematical model of the Arabidopsis circadian oscillator to identify components of the circadian clock sensitive to sucrose. The mathematical studies identified GIGANTEA (GI) as being associated with sucrose sensing. Experimental validation of this prediction demonstrated that GI is required for the full response of the circadian clock to sucrose. We demonstrate that GI acts as part of the sucrose-signaling network and propose this role permits metabolic input into circadian timing in Arabidopsis.

Long Term Dynamics in CO2 Allowance Prices and Carbon Capture Investments

In this paper we analyse the behaviour of the EU market for CO2 emission allowances; specifically, we focus on the contracts maturing in the Kyoto Protocol's second period of application (2008 to 2012). We calibrate the underlying parameters for the allowance price in the long run and we also calibrate those from the Spanish wholesale electricity market. This information is then used to assess the option to install a carbon capture and storage (CCS) unit in a coal-fired power plant. We use a two-dimensional binomial lattice where costs and profits are valued and the optimal investment time is determined. In other words, we study the trigger allowance prices above which it is optimal to install the capture unit immediately. We further analyse the impact of several variables on the critical prices, among them allowance price volatility and a hypothetical government subsidy. We conclude that, at current permit prices, from a financial point of view, immediate installation does not seem justified. This need not be the case, though, if carbon market parameters change dramatically and/or a specific policy to promote these units is adopted.

Lessons from the northern hake long-term management plan: Could the economic assessment have accepted it?

An economic expert working group (STECF/SGBRE-07-05) was convened in 2007 for evaluating the potential economic consequences of a Long-Term Management Plan for the northern hake. Analyzing all the scenarios proposed by biological assessment, they found that keeping the F in the status quo level was the best policy in terms of net present values for both yield and profits. This result is counter intuitive because it may indicate that effort costs do no affect the economic reference points. However, it is well accepted that the inclusion of costs affects negatively the economic reference points. In this paper, applying a dynamic agestructured model to the northern hake, we show that the optimal fishing mortality that maximizes the net present value of profits is lower than Fmax.

Why Economists Reject Long-Term Fisheries Management Plans?

Most fisheries agencies conduct biological and economic assessments independently. This independent conduct may lead to situations in which economists reject management plans proposed by biologists. The objective of this study is to show how to find optimal strategies that may satisfy biologists and economists' conditions. In particular we characterize optimal fishing trajectories that maximize the present value of a discounted economic indicator taking into account the age-structure of the population as in stock assessment methodologies. This approach is applied to the Northern Stock of Hake. Our main empirical findings are: i) Optimal policy may be far away from any of the classical scenarios proposed by biologists, ii) The more the future is discounted, the higher the likelihood of finding contradictions among scenarios proposed by biologists and conclusions from economic analysis, iii) Optimal management reduces the risk of the stock falling under precautionary levels, especially if the future is not discounted to much, and iv) Optimal stationary fishing rate may be very different depending on the economic indicator used as reference.

Methodological keys for the acquisition and long-term use of photographic collections representing elements of Heritage

Contributed to: Fusion of Cultures. XXXVIII Annual Conference on Computer Applications and Quantitative Methods in Archaeology – CAA2010 (Granada, Spain, Apr 6-9, 2010)

Strategic planning for long-term financing of Pacific leatherback conservation and recovery:Proceedings of the Bellagio Sea Turtle Conservation Initiative, Terengganu, Malaysia; July 2007

On 17-20 July 2007, 45 experts on sea turtles, fisheries, conservation and finance from 10 countries convened at the Bellagio Sea Turtle Conservation Initiative workshop in Terengganu to focus on methods to save the imperiled Pacific leatherback from extinction. The group developed a strategic plan to guide the prioritization and long term financing of Pacific leatherback turtle conservation and recovery objectives. Participants identified critical conservation actions and agreed that a business plan is urgently needed to reverse the trajectory towards extinction of the Pacific leatherback. The conservation actions prioritized by the participants encompassed protecting nesting beaches including eggs and nesting females; reducing direct and indirect turtle take in coastal fisheries; and strengthening regional and sub-regional cooperation. The group committed to work together on fundraising and implementation of these urgent conservation actions. This report presents outputs and the plan that was produced from the workshop.

Does Long-Term Macrophyte Management in Lakes Affect Biotic Richness and Diversity?

We hypothesize that the richness and diversity of the biota in Lake Moraine (42°50’47”N, 75°31’39”W) in New York have been negatively impacted by 60 years of macrophyte and algae management to control Eurasian watermilfoil ( Myriophyllum spicatum L.) and associated noxious plants. To test this hypothesis we compare water quality characteristics, richness and selected indicators of plant diversity, zooplankton, benthic macroinvertebrates and fish in Lake Moraine with those in nearby Hatch Lake (42°50’06”N, 75°40’67”W). The latter is of similar size and would be expected to have similar biota, but has not been subjected to management. Measurements of temperature, pH, oxygen, conductivity, Secchi transparency, calcium, total phosphorus and nitrites + nitrates are comparable. Taxa richness and the diversity indices applied to the aquatic macrophytes are similar in both lakes. (PDF has 8 pages.)

Long-Term Growth and Persistence with Endogenous Depreciation: Theory and Evidence

Previous research has shown a strong positive correlation between short-term persistence and long-term output growth as well as between depreciation rates and long-term output growth. This evidence, therefore, contradicts the standard predictions from traditional neoclassical or AK-type growth models with exogenous depreciation. In this paper, we first confirm these findings for a larger sample of 101 countries. We then study the dynamics of growth and persistence in a model where both the depreciation rate and growth are endogenous and procyclical. We find that the model s predictions become consistent with the empirical evidence on persistence, long-term growth and depreciation rates.