The daily and hourly energy consumption and load forecasting using artifitial neural network method: a case study using a set of 93 households in Portugal

It is important to understand and forecast a typical or a particularly household daily consumption in order to design and size suitable renewable energy systems and energy storage. In this research for Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) it has been used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and, despite the consumption unpredictability, it has been shown the possibility to forecast the electricity consumption of a household with certainty. The ANNs are recognized to be a potential methodology for modeling hourly and daily energy consumption and load forecasting. Input variables such as apartment area, numbers of occupants, electrical appliance consumption and Boolean inputs as hourly meter system were considered. Furthermore, the investigation carried out aims to define an ANN architecture and a training algorithm in order to achieve a robust model to be used in forecasting energy consumption in a typical household. It was observed that a feed-forward ANN and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm provided a good performance. For this research it was used a database with consumption records, logged in 93 real households, in Lisbon, Portugal, between February 2000 and July 2001, including both weekdays and weekend. The results show that the ANN approach provides a reliable model for forecasting household electric energy consumption and load profile. © 2014 The Author.

Factors associated with the nutritional status of children less than 5 years of age

OBJECTIVE To analyze if the nutritional status of children aged less than five years is related to the biological conditions of their mothers, environmental and socioeconomic factors, and access to health services and social programs.METHODS This cross-sectional population-based study analyzed 664 mothers and 790 children using canonical correlation analysis. Dependent variables were characteristics of the children (weight/age, height/age, BMI/age, hemoglobin, and retinol serum levels). Independent variables were those related to the mothers’ nutritional status (BMI, hemoglobin, and retinol serum levels), age, environmental and socioeconomic factors and access to health service and social programs. A < 0.05 significance level was adopted to select the interpreted canonical functions (CF) and ± 0.40 as canonical load value of the analyzed variables.RESULTS Three canonical functions were selected, concentrating 89.9% of the variability of the relationship among the groups. In the first canonical function, weight/age (-0.73) and height/age (-0.99) of the children were directly related to the mother’s height (-0.82), prenatal appointments (-0.43), geographical area of the residence (-0.41), and household incomeper capita (-0.42). Inverse relationship between the variables related to the children and people/room (0.44) showed that the larger the number of people/room, the poorer their nutritional status. Rural residents were found to have the worse nutritional conditions. In the second canonical function, the BMI of the mother (-0.48) was related to BMI/age and retinol of the children, indicating that as women gained weight so did their children. Underweight women tended to have children with vitamin A deficiency. In the third canonical function, hemoglobin (-0.72) and retinol serum levels (-0.40) of the children were directly related to the mother’s hemoglobin levels (-0.43).CONCLUSIONS Mothers and children were associated concerning anemia, vitamin A deficiency and anthropometric markers. Living in rural areas is a determining factor for the families health status.

Analyzing objects in images for estimating the delamination influence on load carrying capacity of composite laminates

The use of fiber reinforced plastics has increased in the last decades due to their unique properties. Advantages of their use are related with low weight, high strength and stiffness. Drilling of composite plates can be carried out in conventional machinery with some adaptations. However, the presence of typical defects like delamination can affect mechanical properties of produced parts. In this paper delamination influence in bearing stress of drilled hybrid carbon+glass/epoxy quasi-isotropic plates is studied by using image processing and analysis techniques. Results from bearing test show that damage minimization is an important mean to improve mechanical properties of the joint area of the plate. The appropriateness of the image processing and analysis techniques used in the measurement of the damaged area is demonstrated.

Characteristics of HIV patients who missed their scheduled appointments

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: To analyze whether sociodemographic characteristics, consultations and care in special services are associated with scheduled infectious diseases appointments missed by people living with HIV. METHODS: This cross-sectional and analytical study included 3,075 people living with HIV who had at least one scheduled appointment with an infectologist at a specialized health unit in 2007. A secondary data base from the Hospital Management & Information System was used. The outcome variable was missing a scheduled medical appointment. The independent variables were sex, age, appointments in specialized and available disciplines, hospitalizations at the Central Institute of the Clinical Hospital at the Faculdade de Medicina of the Universidade de São Paulo, antiretroviral treatment and change of infectologist. Crude and multiple association analysis were performed among the variables, with a statistical significance of p ≤ 0.05. RESULTS: More than a third (38.9%) of the patients missed at least one of their scheduled infectious diseases appointments; 70.0% of the patients were male. The rate of missed appointments was 13.9%, albeit with no observed association between sex and absences. Age was inversely associated to missed appointment. Not undertaking anti-retroviral treatment, having unscheduled infectious diseases consultations or social services care and being hospitalized at the Central Institute were directly associated to missed appointments. CONCLUSIONS: The Hospital Management & Information System proved to be a useful tool for developing indicators related to the quality of health care of people living with HIV. Other informational systems, which are often developed for administrative purposes, can also be useful for local and regional management and for evaluating the quality of care provided for patients living with HIV.

Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns

The objective of this article is to provide additional knowledge to the discussion of long-term memory, leaning over the behavior of the main Portuguese stock index. The first four moments are calculated using time windows of increasing size and sliding time windows of fixed size equal to 50 days and suggest that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Seeming that the series is best described by a fractional Brownian motion approach, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The findings indicate evidence of long term memory in the form of persistence. This evidence of fractal structure suggests that the market is subject to greater predictability and contradicts the efficient market hypothesis in its weak form. This raises issues regarding theoretical modeling of asset pricing. In addition, we carried out a more localized (in time) study to identify the evolution of the degree of long-term dependency over time using windows 200-days and 400-days. The results show a switching feature in the index, from persistent to anti-persistent, quite evident from 2010.

Light-activated amplification in SiC Tandem devices: A capacitive active filter model

Characteristics of tunable wavelength pi'n/pin filters based on a-SiC:H multilayered stacked cells are studied both experimentally and theoretically. Results show that the device combines the demultiplexing operation with the simultaneous photodetection and self amplification of the signal. An algorithm to decode the multiplex signal is established. A capacitive active band-pass filter model is presented and supported by an electrical simulation of the state variable filter circuit. Experimental and simulated results show that the device acts as a state variable filter. It combines the properties of active high-pass and low-pass filter sections into a capacitive active band-pass filter using a changing capacitance to control the power delivered to the load.

Caracterização mecânica e análise da resistência à corrosão em diferentes solos, de aços inoxidáveis duplex

O aço inoxidável é um material de alta durabilidade e resistência, utilizado nos mais diversos setores comerciais. O conhecimento das suas características e propriedades é essencial para uma escolha mais seletiva e vantajosa. Pretende‐se com este trabalho, estudar as propriedades mecânicas, a resistência ao desgaste e o comportamento, em ambientes mais agressivos de três tipos de aços inoxidáveis duplex, produzidos pela OUTOKUMPU e comercialmente conhecidos pelas designações LDX 2101, SAF 2507 e o SAF 2205. Para tal efeito foram realizados ensaios de Dureza Vickers, antes e após dobragem; ensaios de tracção em duas diferentes situações: seguindo a norma NP EN 10002‐ 1:2006 e após a realização de alguns ciclos de carga e descarga; ensaio de Impacto à temperatura ambiente e após arrefecimento criogénico; ensaio de resistência à corrosão. Também foi feito o estudo de resistência ao desgaste com base na técnica de micro‐abrasão por esfera rotativa e o estudo metalográfico. Foi também objetivo deste trabalho, relacionar o uso dos referidos aços duplex e as consequências que esse uso tem para o meio ambiente, bem como o seu comportamento quando exposto a condições extremas. Para tal, foram colocadas amostras dos referidos aços, em dois tipos de solos com condições de humidade e acidez diferentes analisando o seu estado após imersão em solo com condições controladas durante 272 dias.

The influence of sludge characteristics from fullscale MBR in membrane filterability

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente,perfil Sanitária

Desenvolvimento de ferramentas e provetes para o ensaio Thick Adherend Shear Test (TAST).

As estruturas coladas são geralmente projetadas para que o adesivo seja essencialmente sujeito a esforços de corte, pois neste tipo de solicitação o adesivo apresenta melhores caraterísticas mecânicas. A avaliação do comportamento ao corte pode ser realizada com o adesivo no estado maciço ou como camada fina em juntas adesivas. Os métodos que permitem avaliar o comportamento ao corte, quer para o adesivo, quer para as juntas, são: o ensaio Iosipescu ou V-Notched beam shear method, o ensaio de borboleta ou Notched plate shear method (Arcan), o ensaio de torsão, o ensaio de tração numa junta de sobreposição simples e o ensaio Thick Adherend Shear Test (TAST). Os ensaios Arcan e Iosipescu, tal como o ensaio de torção, podem ser realizados em provetes de adesivo maciço ou em juntas. O ensaio de torção é pouco utilizado, porque a aplicação do esforço de corte exige dispositivos e equipamentos de ensaios complexos. Os ensaios Arcan e Iosipescu utilizam provetes com entalhes e podem introduzir alguma dificuldade na medição precisa das deformações. O ensaio de tração numa junta de sobreposição simples é um dos métodos mais usados para caraterizar uma junta adesiva, porque é um método simples, as juntas são de fácil fabrico e pode ser realizado em máquinas universais de ensaios mecânicos. Neste ensaio os aderentes estão sujeitos a uma solicitação de tração, enquanto a camada de adesivo está sujeita a esforços de corte combinados com esforços de arrancamento. Os esforços de arrancamento resultam da própria geometria da junta na qual existe um desalinhamento das forças de tração, mesmo quando são colocados calços (reguladores de espessura) nos locais de amarração. O ensaio TAST é dos mais populares para obtenção das propriedades ao corte, uma vez que tanto as ferramentas de ensaio como o fabrico dos provetes são relativamente simples. Este ensaio é realizado em junta sendo os substratos espessos e de aço que, devido à sua elevada rigidez, contribuem para um esforço de corte praticamente puro no adesivo. Neste trabalho realizou-se o projeto e a fabricação das ferramentas, gabarit e substratos necessários para a execução de provetes TAST e ensaios utilizando diferentes adesivos.

Study on the changes of soil chemical characteristics as result of prescribed fire

Every year, particularly during the summer period, the Portuguese forests are devastated by forest fire that destroys their ecosystems. So in order to prevent these forest fires, public and private authorities frequently use methods for the reduction of combustible mass as the prescribed fire and the mechanical vegetation pruning. All of these methods of prevention of forest fires alter the vegetation layer and/or soil [1-2]. This work aimed the study of the variation of some chemical characteristics of soil that suffered prescribed fire. The studied an area was located in the Serra of Cabreira (Figure 1) with 54.6 ha. Twenty sampling points were randomly selected and samples were collected with a shovel before, just after the prescribed fire, and 125 and 196 days after that event. The parameters that were studied were: pH, soil moisture, organic matter and iron, magnesium and potassium total concentration. All the analysis followed International Standard Methodologies. This work allowed to conclude that: a) after the prescribed fire; i) the pH remained practically equal to the the initial value; ii) occurred a slight increase of the average of the organic matter contents and iron total contents; b) at the end of the sampling period compared to the initial values; i) the pH didn´t change significantly; ii) the average of the contents of organic matter decreased; and iii) the average of the total contents of Fe, Mg and K increased.

Effects of prescribed fire on surface soil in a Pinus pinaster plantation, northern Portugal

In order to decrease the risk of severe wildfire, prescribed fire has recently been adopted in Portugal and elsewhere in the Mediterranean as a major tool for reducing the fuel load instead of manual or mechanical removal of vegetation. There has been some research into its impact on soils in shrublands and grasslands, but to date little research has been conducted in forested areas in the region. As a result, the impact of prescribed fire on the physico-chemical soil characteristics of forest soils has been assumed to be minimal, but this has not been demonstrated. In this study, we present the results of a monitoring campaign of a detailed pre- and post-prescribed fire assessment of soil properties in a long-unburnt P. pinaster plantation, NW Portugal. The soil characteristics examined were pH, total porosity, bulk density, moisture content, organic matter content and litter/ash quantity. The results show that there was no significant impact on the measured soil properties, the only effect being confined to minor changes in the upper 1 cm of soil. We conclude that provided the fire is carried out according to strict guidelines in P. pinaster forest, a minimal impact on soil properties can be expected.

Characteristics of IEF, SDS and SAR-PAGE of Cuba EPO biosimilar

EPO is a glycoprotein produced in the kidney, which stimulates the division and differentiation of red cells in the bone marrow. Erythropoietin is available as a therapeutic agent produced by recombinant DNA technology in mammalian cell culture into which the human EPO gene has been transfected. Biosimilar Epoetins are mostly erythropoietins of the Epoetin alfa, beta or omega type, which are being produced at much lower cost due to expired patents. Recombinant human erythropoietin (rh-EPO) contains the identical amino acid sequence of natural EPO: 165 amino acids, with a molecular weight of 30,400 Da. Since glycosylation is not only dependent on the cell-line used for the expression of Epoetins but also on the entire biotechnological process the glycosylation patterns of biosimilars do not necessarily reflect the patterns of the originator compounds. Today biosimilar Epoetins are manufactured and distributed worldwide and under many different names. The use of recombinant EPOs for doping is prohibited because of its performance enhancing effect. The aim of the present study was to investigated whether biosimilar alpha r-HuEPO – ior®-EPOCIM, produced in Cuba and also available in other countries in all continents, could be differentiated from endogenous one by iso-electro-focusing plus double blotting, SDS-PAGE and SAR-PAGE for antidoping analysis.

Dynamic load management in a smart home to participate in demand response events

In future power systems, in the smart grid and microgrids operation paradigms, consumers can be seen as an energy resource with decentralized and autonomous decisions in the energy management. It is expected that each consumer will manage not only the loads, but also small generation units, heating systems, storage systems, and electric vehicles. Each consumer can participate in different demand response events promoted by system operators or aggregation entities. This paper proposes an innovative method to manage the appliances on a house during a demand response event. The main contribution of this work is to include time constraints in resources management, and the context evaluation in order to ensure the required comfort levels. The dynamic resources management methodology allows a better resources’ management in a demand response event, mainly the ones of long duration, by changing the priorities of loads during the event. A case study with two scenarios is presented considering a demand response with 30 min duration, and another with 240 min (4 h). In both simulations, the demand response event proposes the power consumption reduction during the event. A total of 18 loads are used, including real and virtual ones, controlled by the presented house management system.

Biological and morphological characteristics of Schistosoma mansoni from Ribeira Valley, State of São Paulo, Brazil: I - susceptibility of Biomphalaria tenagophila snail to sympatric S. mansoni strain

In the São Paulo State, Brazil, where the Biomphalaria tenagophila is the intermediate host, the Ribeira Valley is an important endemic schistosomiasis mansoni area. During last eleven years there has been intense control measures focusing on schistosomiasis. The efforts have been concentrated in the municipalities of Pedro de Toledo and Itariri. We determined the susceptibility of B. tenagophila to sympatric strain of S. mansoni, both recently isolated from Itariri field. In 1988, this strain was isolated and maintained in the experimental model: Swiss mice - sympatric B. tenagophila. The second generation of the worm was evaluated. The snail were divided in the three groups of 60 snails each. One group was exposed to 1 miracidium and other to 10. The third group was the control. The mortality and the shedding of cercariae were checked during 78 days. After that, the positive snails were observed until they ceased to shed cercariae. The exposed molluscs showed mortality rates of 23% and 31% and infection indexes were of 8% and 60% to 1 and 10 miracidia respectively. The mortality was of 22% in the control group. The periods of shedding cercariae in the two groups were 82 and 104 days. We can conclude that B. tenagophila is an effective intermediate host to the sympatric strain of S. mansoni sympatric strain

Epidemiology of Schistosoma mansoni infection in a low-endemic area in Brazil: clinical and nutritional characteristics

A cross-sectional case-control study designed to evaluate the role of malnutrition in the association between the intensity of Schistosoma mansoni infection and clinical schistosomiasis, was conducted in an area with both low frequency of infection and low morbidity of schistosomiasis in Brazil. Cases (256) were patients with a positive stool examination for S. mansoni; their geometrical mean number of eggs/gram of feces was 90. Controls (256) were a random sample of the negative participants paired to the cases by age, sex and length of residence in the area. The clinical signs and symptoms found to be associated with S. mansoni infection, comparing cases and controls, were blood in stools and presence of a palpable liver. A linear trend in the relative odds of these signs and symptoms with increasing levels of infection was detected. Adjusting by the level of egg excretion, the existence of an interaction between palpable liver and ethnic group (white) was suggested. No differences in the nutritional status of infected and non-infected participants were found.