884 resultados para Litmanen, Tapio: The struggle over risk
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OBJECTIVE To investigate differences in HIV infection- related risk practices by Female Sex Workers according to workplace and the effects of homophily on estimating HIV prevalence. METHODS Data from 2,523 women, recruited using Respondent-Driven Sampling, were used for the study carried out in 10 Brazilian cities in 2008-2009. The study included female sex workers aged 18 and over. The questionnaire was completed by the subjects and included questions on characteristics of professional activity, sexual practices, use of drugs, HIV testing, and access to health services. HIV quick tests were conducted. The participants were classified in two groups according to place of work: on the street or indoor venues, like nightclubs and saunas. To compare variable distributions by place of work, we used Chi-square homogeneity tests, taking into consideration unequal selection probabilities as well as the structure of dependence between observations. We tested the effect of homophily by workplace on estimated HIV prevalence. RESULTS The highest HIV risk practices were associated with: working on the streets, lower socioeconomic status, low regular smear test coverage, higher levels of crack use and higher levels of syphilis serological scars as well as higher prevalence of HIV infection. The effect of homophily was higher among sex workers in indoor venues. However, it did not affect the estimated prevalence of HIV, even after using a post-stratification by workplace procedure. CONCLUSIONS The findings suggest that strategies should focus on extending access to, and utilization of, health services. Prevention policies should be specifically aimed at street workers. Regarding the application of Respondent-Driven Sampling, the sample should be sufficient to estimate transition probabilities, as the network develops more quickly among sex workers in indoor venues.
Risk Acceptance in the Furniture Sector: Analysis of Acceptance Level and Relevant Influence Factors
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Risk acceptance has been broadly discussed in relation to hazardous risk activities and/or technologies. A better understanding of risk acceptance in occupational settings is also important; however, studies on this topic are scarce. It seems important to understand the level of risk that stakeholders consider sufficiently low, how stakeholders form their opinion about risk, and why they adopt a certain attitude toward risk. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to examine risk acceptance in regard to occupational accidents in furniture industries. The safety climate analysis was conducted through the application of the Safety Climate in Wood Industries questionnaire. Judgments about risk acceptance, trust, risk perception, benefit perception, emotions, and moral values were measured. Several models were tested to explain occupational risk acceptance. The results showed that the level of risk acceptance decreased as the risk level increased. High-risk and death scenarios were assessed as unacceptable. Risk perception, emotions, and trust had an important influence on risk acceptance. Safety climate was correlated with risk acceptance and other variables that influence risk acceptance. These results are important for the risk assessment process in terms of defining risk acceptance criteria and strategies to reduce risks.
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The use of appropriate acceptance criteria in the risk assessment process for occupational accidents is an important issue but often overlooked in the literature, particularly when new risk assessment methods are proposed and discussed. In most cases, there is no information on how or by whom they were defined, or even how companies can adapt them to their own circumstances. Bearing this in mind, this study analysed the problem of the definition of risk acceptance criteria for occupational settings, defining the quantitative acceptance criteria for the specific case study of the Portuguese furniture industrial sector. The key steps to be considered in formulating acceptance criteria were analysed in the literature review. By applying the identified steps, the acceptance criteria for the furniture industrial sector were then defined. The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) for the injury statistics of the industrial sector was identified as the maximum tolerable risk level. The acceptable threshold was defined by adjusting the CDF to the Occupational, Safety & Health (OSH) practitioners’ risk acceptance judgement. Adjustments of acceptance criteria to the companies’ safety cultures were exemplified by adjusting the Burr distribution parameters. An example of a risk matrix was also used to demonstrate the integration of the defined acceptance criteria into a risk metric. This work has provided substantial contributions to the issue of acceptance criteria for occupational accidents, which may be useful in overcoming the practical difficulties faced by authorities, companies and experts.
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BACKGROUND: Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is the severe complication of stress-related mucosal disease in hospitalized patients. In intensive care units (ICU), risk factors are well defined and only mechanical ventilation and coagulopathy proved to be relevant for significant bleeding. On the contrary, in non-ICU settings there is no consensus about this issue. Nevertheless, omeprazole is still widely used in prophylaxis of bleeding. The objective of our study was to evaluate the relevance of stress-related mucosal disease bleeding in patients admitted to an internal medicine ward, and the role of omeprazole in its prophylaxis. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study in which we analysed consecutive patients who were admitted to our ward over a year. We recorded demographic characteristics of the patients, potential risk factors for stress-related mucosal disease (clinical data, laboratory, and medication), administration of prophylactic omeprazole, and total cost of this prophylaxis. Patients with active gastrointestinal bleeding on the admission were excluded. We recorded every upper gastrointestinal bleeding event with clinical relevance. RESULTS: Five hundred and thirty-five patients, mean age 70 years, mean length of stay 9.6+/-7.7 days; 140 (26.2%) patients were treated with 40 mg of omeprazole intravenously, 193 (36.1%) with 20mg of omeprazole orally, and 202 (37.8%) patients had no prophylaxis. There was only one episode (0.2%) of clinically relevant bleeding. CONCLUSION: In patients admitted to an internal medicine ward, incidence of upper gastrointestinal bleeding as a complication of stress-related mucosal disease is low. We found that there is no advantage in prophylaxis with omeprazole.
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Trabalho de Projeto apresentado como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação
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The purpose of this paper is to conduct a methodical drawback analysis of a financial supplier risk management approach which is currently implemented in the automotive industry. Based on identified methodical flaws, the risk assessment model is further developed by introducing a malus system which incorporates hidden risks into the model and by revising the derivation of the most central risk measure in the current model. Both methodical changes lead to significant enhancements in terms of risk assessment accuracy, supplier identification and workload efficiency.
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This paper analyses the Portuguese stock market since it reopened in 1977, with a special focus on the evolution of the statistic and stochastic characteristics of the market return throughout this 36 year period. The market return for the period of time between 1977 and 2012 (September 28th) is estimated and then compared with the return that would have been achieved with Government bonds and treasury bills, which allows us to confirm that the hierarchy of return / risk across the different financial instruments is verified. The market risk premium for this 36 year period is also estimated and a comparison with other markets is performed, suggesting that the Portuguese market’s risk has not been compensated by an adequate return. The study also examines the evolution of the Portuguese market’s volatility in the 1977-2012 period and compares it with other markets, showing the existence of extremely high peaks during the first 11 years, but indicating a downwards trend throughout the whole period under analysis. Finally, the correlation between market returns for Portugal and for other countries and the degree of integration are estimated and their evolution throughout time is assessed, leading to the conclusion that the performance of the Portuguese stock market has become increasingly correlated with major European markets – correlation with some markets close to 0.70 from 2000 onwards-, but that country-specific risk factors are still relevant.
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The use of appropriate acceptance criteria in the risk assessment process for occupational accidents is an important issue but often overlooked in the literature, particularly when new risk assessment methods are proposed and discussed. In most cases, there is no information on how or by whom they were defined, or even how companies can adapt them to their own circumstances. Bearing this in mind, this study analysed the problem of the definition of risk acceptance criteria for occupational settings, defining the quantitative acceptance criteria for the specific case study of the Portuguese furniture industrial sector. The key steps to be considered in formulating acceptance criteria were analysed in the literature review. By applying the identified steps, the acceptance criteria for the furniture industrial sector were then defined. The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) for the injury statistics of the industrial sector was identified as the maximum tolerable risk level. The acceptable threshold was defined by adjusting the CDF to the Occupational, Safety & Health (OSH) practitioners’ risk acceptance judgement. Adjustments of acceptance criteria to the companies’ safety cultures were exemplified by adjusting the Burr distribution parameters. An example of a risk matrix was also used to demonstrate the integration of the defined acceptance criteria into a risk metric. This work has provided substantial contributions to the issue of acceptance criteria for occupational accidents, which may be useful in overcoming the practical difficulties faced by authorities, companies and experts.
Risk acceptance in the furniture sector: Analysis of acceptance level and relevant influence factors
Resumo:
Risk acceptance has been broadly discussed in relation to hazardous risk activities and/or technologies. A better understanding of risk acceptance in occupational settings is also important; however, studies on this topic are scarce. It seems important to understand the level of risk that stakeholders consider sufficiently low, how stakeholders form their opinion about risk, and why they adopt a certain attitude toward risk. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to examine risk acceptance in regard to occupational accidents in furniture industries. The safety climate analysis was conducted through the application of the Safety Climate in Wood Industries questionnaire. Judgments about risk acceptance, trust, risk perception, benefit perception, emotions, and moral values were measured. Several models were tested to explain occupational risk acceptance. The results showed that the level of risk acceptance decreased as the risk level increased. High-risk and death scenarios were assessed as unacceptable. Risk perception, emotions, and trust had an important influence on risk acceptance. Safety climate was correlated with risk acceptance and other variables that influence risk acceptance. These results are important for the risk assessment process in terms of defining risk acceptance criteria and strategies to reduce risks.
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OBJECTIVE: To analyze in out clinic elderly patients of both sexes for the prevalence of risk factors for atherosclerosis and study their association with the complications of atherosclerosis. METHODS: Five hundred and sixteen outpatients, 152 men and 364 women, 60 years or older, were studied. The prevalences of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, cigarette smoking and obesity were determined in both sexes and compared using the chi-square test. The association between these factors and the presence of atherosclerotic complications was analyzed by logistic regression. RESULTS: The comparative analysis of the factors in both sexes showed that hypertension, total cholesterol > or = 240mg/dL, LDL-cholesterol > or = 160mg/dL, and body mass index >27.5 were more frequent among women, but HDL-cholesterol <35mg/dL and cigarette smoking were more frequent among men, and no difference occurred between sexes in relation to the frequency of triglycerides > or = 250mg/dL and diabetes mellitus. After adjustment of the variables in the regression model, we observed that in the total of elderly patients, risk factors for complications of atherosclerosis were: triglycerides > or = 250mg/dL, hypertension, and male sex. Among men, the risk factors were: LDL-cholesterol > or = 160mg/dL, diabetes mellitus, HDL-cholesterol <35mg/dL and hypertension. Among women, the risk factors were: tryglicerides > or = 250mg/dL and hypertension. CONCLUSION: The results showed that, in the elderly, the risk factors for atherosclerosis persist, but with different behaviors between men and women. The study suggests that the relative importance of the risk factors can change with the aging process.
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OBJECTIVE - To analyze the trends in risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases in the northern, northeastern, southern, southeastern, and central western Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996. METHODS - Data on mortality due to cardiovascular, cardiac ischemic, and cerebrovascular diseases in 5 Brazilian geographic regions were obtained from the Ministry of Health. Population estimates for the time period from 1978 to 1996 in the 5 Brazilian geographic regions were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method, based on the census data from 1970, 1980, 1991, and the population count of 1996, for each age bracket and sex. Trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression model. RESULTS - Cardiovascular diseases showed a declining trend in the southern, southeastern, and northern Brazilian geographic regions in all age brackets and for both sexes. In the northeastern and central western regions, an increasing trend in the risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases occurred, except for the age bracket from 30 to 39 years, which showed a slight reduction. This resulted from the trends of cardiac ischemic and cerebrovascular diseases. The analysis of the trend in the northeastern and northern regions was impaired by the great proportion of poorly defined causes of death. CONCLUSION - The risk of death due to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and cardiac ischemic diseases decreased in the southern and southeastern regions, which are the most developed regions in the country, and increased in the least developed regions, mainly in the central western region.
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OBJECTIVE - A population-based prospective study was analysed to: a) determine the prevalence of hypertension; b) investigate the clustering of other cardiovascular risk factors and c) verify whether older differed from younger adults in the pattern of clustering. METHODS - The data comprised a representative sample of the population of Bambuí, Brazil. Multiple logistic regression was used to investigate the independent association between hypertension and selected factors. RESULTS - A total of 820 younger adults (82.5%) and 1494 older adults (85.9%) participated in this study. The overall prevalence of hypertension was 24.8% (SE=1.4 %), being higher in women (26.9±1.5%) than in men (22.0± 1.7%) (p=0.033). Hypertension was positively and significantly associated with physical inactivity, overweight, hypercholesterolemia hyperglycemia and hypertriglyceridemia. The coexistence of hypertension with 4 or more of these risk factors occurred 6 times more than expected by chance, after adjusting for age and sex (OR=6.3; 95%CI: 3.4-11.9). The pattern of risk factor clustering in hypertensive individuals differed with age. CONCLUSION - Our results reinforce the need to increase detection and treatment of hypertension and to approach patients' global risk profiles.
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OBJECTIVE: To establish the allelic and genotypic frequencies related to apolipoprotein E (ApoE) polymorphism and association of the genotypes with risk factors and cardiovascular morbidity in an elderly population with longevity. METHODS: We analyzed 70 elderly patients aged 80 years or more who were part of the Projeto Veranópolis. We used the gene amplification technique through the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) and cleavage with the restriction enzyme Hha I to identify the ApoE genotypes. The most frequent genotypes were compared considering biological variables and cardiovascular risks and morbidity. RESULTS: The frequencies of the E2, E3, and E4 alleles were 0.05, 0.84, and 0.11, respectively, and of the genotypes were as follows: E3E3 (0.70), E3E4 (0.22), E2E3 (0.06), and E2E2 (0.02). Individuals with the E3E4 had a mean age greater than those with the E3E3. No association was observed between the genotypes and the variables analyzed, except for obesity, which was associated with the E3E3 genotype. Individuals with the E3E4 genotype had high levels of LDL-cholesterol and fibrinogen as compared with those with the E3E3 genotype. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that the E4E4 genotype may be associated with early mortality. A balance between the protective or neutral factors and the cardiovascular risk factors may occur among the individuals with different genotypes, attenuating the negative effects of the E4 allele.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess whether a difference exists in coronary heart disease clinical manifestations and the prevalence of risk factors between Japanese immigrants and their descendents in the city of São Paulo. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of coronary artery disease clinical manifestations and the prevalence of risk factors, comparing 128 Japanese immigrants (Japanese group) with 304 Japanese descendents (Nisei group). RESULTS: The initial manifestation of the disease was earlier in the Nisei group (mean = 53 years), a difference of 12 years when compared with that in the Japanese group (mean = 65 years) (P<0.001). Myocardial infarction was the first manifestation in both groups (P = 0.83). The following parameters were independently associated with early coronary events: smoking (OR = 2.25; 95% CI = 1.35-3.77; P<0.002); Nisei group (OR = 10.22; 95% CI = 5.64-18.5; P<0.001); and female sex (OR = 5.04; 95% CI = 2.66-9.52; P<0.001). CONCLUSION: The clinical presentation of coronary heart disease in the Japanese and their descendents in the city of São Paulo was similar, but coronary heart disease onset occurred approximately 12 years earlier in the Nisei group than in the Japanese group.
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La provincia de Córdoba cuenta con alto desarrollo agrícola a base de cereales y leguminosas, como por ejemplo el maní. Pero este cultivo con los años ha trasladado su zona de siembra original y se ha extendido hacia otras áreas de mayor riesgo ambiental a raíz de la implantación de la soja. Diversas son las consecuencias de estas dos acciones y que se extienden desde lo agroecológico hasta lo científico-técnico. Este previo estado del arte y las referencias bibliográficas que apuntan a la necesitad de aumentar el valor agregado de los cultivos, nos ha llevado a formular una hipótesis de trabajo y es que las plantas de maní y soja así como las rizobacterias que se asocian con ellas, son productoras de diversas moléculas con potencial uso biológico en la productividad del cultivo y en aplicaciones tecnológicas, biológicas e industriales. Sumado a lo anterior y a las ideas gubernamentales de la necesidad de obtener conocimiento y capitalizarlo como riqueza, y la imperiosa urgencia de responder a demandas regionales, se presenta este proyecto cuyo objetivo general apunta a estudiar la producción de diversas moléculas de rizobacterias y leguminosas con el fin de mejorar la productividad de los cultivos y desarrollar nuevas aplicaciones tecnológicas en la provincia de Córdoba. Para cumplir dentro de los dos años de trabajo solicitados con lo expuesto anteriormente, la investigación será dividida en objetivos específicos y que consisten en investigar la producción de moléculas de raíces de maní y soja, analizar la respuesta microbiana a las rizodeposiciones de ambas leguminosas y evaluar el posible papel biológico y aplicación tecnológica de moléculas de ambos tipos de organismos. Nuestro grupo es de caracter multidisciplinar y ahondará en la diversidad molecular producida por raíces de maní y soja en direfentes días y la respuesta de las rizobacterias que se asocian ellas utilizando técnicas químicas (HPLC, GC, GC-masa) y herramientas microbiológicas y bioquímicas clásicas. Con fines de aplicación tecnológica se determinará la posible acción antioxidante de los extractos vegetales sobre sistemas modelos de ensayo así como la búsqueda de enzimas y hormonas microbianas aplicables en otros campos de la ciencia. De esta forma se pretende atender algunas demandas de diferentes sectores del centro sur de Córdoba y del país pero fundamentalmente posibilitar nuevas aplicaciones de las leguminosas y de las rizobacterias además de permitir la formación académicas de alumnos de grado y posgrado de la UNRC. The province of Cordoba has high agricultural development based on cereals and legumes such as peanuts. But the crop over the years has transferred his original planting area and has spread to other areas of greatest environmental risk following the introduction of soybeans. The previous state and regional art references that point to the necessity of increasing the value-added crops, has led us to formulate a working hypothesis is that the peanut and soybean plants and rhizobacteria associated with they are products of various biological molecules with potential use in crop productivity and biological technology and industrial applications. The general objective is aimed at studying the production of various molecules and legumes rhizobacteria to improve crop productivity and develop new technological applications in the Cordoba province. This form is intended to meet some demands of different sectors of the center south of Cordoba and the country but enabling new applications of legumes and rhizobacteria in addition to allowing the academic training of undergraduates and graduate of the UNRC.