Spatial econometric issues for bio-economic and land-use modelling

We survey the literature on spatial bio-economic and land-use modelling and assess its thematic development. Unobserved site-specific heterogeneity is a feature of almost all the surveyed works, and this feature, it seems, has stimulated significant methodological innovation. In an attempt to improve the suitability with which the prototype incorporates heterogeneity, we consider modelling alternatives and extensions. We discuss solutions and conjecture others.

Modelling the likely impact of healthy eating guidelines on agricultural production and land use in England and Wales

Quadratic programming techniques were applied to household food consumption data in England and Wales to estimate likely changes in diet under healthy eating guidelines, and the consequences this would have on agriculture and land use in England and Wales. The first step entailed imposing nutrient restrictions on food consumption following dietary recommendations suggested by the UK Department of Health. The resulting diet was used, in a second step as a proxy for demand in agricultural commodities, to test the impact of such a scenario on food production and land use in England and Wales and the impacts of this on agricultural landscapes. Results of the diet optimisation indicated a large drop in consumption of foods rich in saturated fats and sugar, essentially cheese and sugar-based products, along with lesser cuts of fat and meat products. Conversely, consumption of fruit and vegetables, cereals, and flour would increase to meet dietary fibre recommendations. Such a shift in demand would dramatically affect production patterns: the financial net margin of England and Wales agriculture would rise, due to increased production of high market value and high economic margin crops. Some regions would, however, be negatively affected, mostly those dependent on beef cattle and sheep production that could not benefit from an increased demand for cereals and horticultural crops. The effects of these changes would also be felt in upstream industries, such as animal feed suppliers. While arable dominated landscapes would be little affected, pastoral landscapes would suffer through loss of grazing management and, possibly, land abandonment, especially in upland areas.

Contribution of land use changes to near-surface air temperatures during recent summer extreme heat events in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

The impact of 1973–2005 land use–land cover (LULC) changes on near-surface air temperatures during four recent summer extreme heat events (EHEs) are investigated for the arid Phoenix, Arizona, metropolitan area using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in conjunction with the Noah Urban Canopy Model. WRF simulations were carried out for each EHE using LULC for the years 1973, 1985, 1998, and 2005. Comparison of measured near-surface air temperatures and wind speeds for 18 surface stations in the region show a good agreement between observed and simulated data for all simulation periods. The results indicate consistent significant contributions of urban development and accompanying LULC changes to extreme temperatures for the four EHEs. Simulations suggest new urban developments caused an intensification and expansion of the area experiencing extreme temperatures but mainly influenced nighttime temperatures with an increase of up to 10 K. Nighttime temperatures in the existing urban core showed changes of up to 2 K with the ongoing LULC changes. Daytime temperatures were not significantly affected where urban development replaced desert land (increase by 1 K); however, maximum temperatures increased by 2–4 K when irrigated agricultural land was converted to suburban development. According to the model simulations, urban landscaping irrigation contributed to cooling by 0.5–1 K in maximum daytime as well as minimum nighttime 2-m air temperatures in most parts of the urban region. Furthermore, urban development led to a reduction of the already relatively weak nighttime winds and therefore a reduction in advection of cooler air into the city.

British container breeding mosquitoes: the impact of urbanisation and climate change on community composition and phenology

The proliferation of artificial container habitats in urban areas has benefitted urban adaptable mosquito species globally. In areas where mosquitoes transmit viruses and parasites, it can promote vector population productivity and fuel mosquito-borne disease outbreaks. In Britain, storage of water in garden water butts is increasing, potentially expanding mosquito larval habitats and influencing population dynamics and mosquito-human contact. Here we show that the community composition, abundance and phenology of mosquitoes breeding in experimental water butt containers were influenced by urbanisation. Mosquitoes in urban containers were less species-rich but present in significantly higher densities (100.4±21.3) per container than those in rural containers (77.7±15.1). Urban containers were dominated by Culex pipiens (a potential vector of West Nile Virus [WNV]) and appear to be increasingly exploited by Anopheles plumbeus (a human-biting potential WNV and malaria vector). Culex phenology was influenced by urban land use type, with peaks in larval abundances occurring earlier in urban than rural containers. Among other factors, this was associated with an urban heat island effect which raised urban air and water temperatures by 0.9°C and 1.2°C respectively. Further increases in domestic water storage, particularly in urban areas, in combination with climate changes will likely alter mosquito population dynamics in the UK.

Pre-Columbian land use in the ring-ditch region of the Bolivian Amazon

The nature and extent of pre-Columbian (pre-1492 AD) human impact in Amazonia is a contentious issue. The Bolivian Amazon has yielded some of the most impressive evidence for large and complex pre-Columbian societies in the Amazon basin, yet there remains relatively little data concerning the land use of these societies over time. Palaeoecology, when integrated with archaeological data, has the potential to fill these gaps in our knowledge. We present a 6,000-year record of anthropogenic burning, agriculture and vegetation change, from an oxbow lake located adjacent to a pre-Columbian ring-ditch in north-east Bolivia (13°15’44” S, 63°42’37” W). Human occupation around the lake site is inferred from pollen and phytoliths of maize (Zea mays L.) and macroscopic charcoal evidence of anthropogenic burning. First occupation around the lake was radiocarbon dated to ~2500 years BP. The persistence of maize in the record from ~1850 BP suggests that it was an important crop grown in the ringditch region in pre-Columbian times, and abundant macroscopic charcoal suggests that pre-Columbian land management entailed more extensive burning of the landscape than the slash-and-burn agriculture practised around the site today. The site was occupied continuously until near-modern times, although there is evidence for a decline in agricultural intensity or change in land use strategy, and possible population decline, from ~600-500 BP. The long and continuous occupation, which predates the establishment of rainforest in the region, suggests that pre-Columbian land use may have had a significant influence on ecosystem development at this site over the last ~2000 years.

Pre-Columbian ring ditch construction and land use on a “chocolate forest island” in the Bolivian Amazon

We present a palaeoecological investigation of pre-Columbian land use in the savannah “forest island” landscape of north-east Bolivian Amazonia. A 5700 year sediment core from La Luna Lake, located adjacent to the La Luna forest island site, was analysed for fossil pollen and charcoal. We aimed to determine the palaeoenvironmental context of pre-Columbian occupation on the site and assess the environmental impact of land use in the forest island region. Evidence for anthropogenic burning and Zea mays L. cultivation began ~2000 cal a BP, at a time when the island was covered by savannah, under drier-than-present climatic conditions. After ~1240 cal a BP burning declined and afforestation occurred. We show that construction of the ring ditch, which encircles the island, did not involve substantial deforestation. Previous estimates of pre-Columbian population size in this region, based upon labour required for forest clearance, should therefore be reconsidered. Despite the high density of economically useful plants, such as Theobroma cacao, in the modern forest, no direct pollen evidence for agroforestry was found. However, human occupation is shown to pre-date and span forest expansion on this site, suggesting that here, and in the wider forest island region, there is no truly pre-anthropogenic ‘pristine’ forest.

The Impact of Land Use Patterns and Watershed Characteristics on China Lake, Kennebec County, Maine

China Lake is located in Kennebec County, Maine. Since 1983 the lake has suffered from yearly algal blooms as a result of the addition of excess nutrients. The nutrient load was amplified by erosion within the watershed. Erosion varies widely depending on a number of factors, including the slope of the land, the type of soil, and the way the land is being used. Certain land use types have a high potential to add nutrients to the environment, while others may help absorb excess nutrients and prevent erosion and runoff into the lake. A comprehensive examination of the China Lake watershed was completed using GIS to calculate the erosion potential for the entire area, taking into account past and present land use patterns. This information will help the towns around the lake to make informed decisions about future development and land management.

Assessment of tropical forest degradation by selective logging and fire using Landsat imagery

Many studies have assessed the process of forest degradation in the Brazilian Amazon using remote sensing approaches to estimate the extent and impact by selective logging and forest fires on tropical rain forest. However, only a few have estimated the combined impacts of those anthropogenic activities. We conducted a detailed analysis of selective logging and forest fire impacts on natural forests in the southern Brazilian Amazon state of Mato Grosso, one of the key logging centers in the country. To achieve this goal a 13-year series of annual Landsat images (1992-2004) was used to test different remote sensing techniques for measuring the extent of selective logging and forest fires, and to estimate their impact and interaction with other land use types occurring in the study region. Forest canopy regeneration following these disturbances was also assessed. Field measurements and visual observations were conducted to validate remote sensing techniques. Our results indicated that the Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index aerosol free (MSAVI(af)) is a reliable estimator of fractional coverage under both clear sky and under smoky conditions in this study region. During the period of analysis, selective logging was responsible for disturbing the largest proportion (31%) of natural forest in the study area, immediately followed by deforestation (29%). Altogether, forest disturbances by selective logging and forest fires affected approximately 40% of the study site area. Once disturbed by selective logging activities, forests became more susceptible to fire in the study site. However, our results showed that fires may also occur in undisturbed forests. This indicates that there are further factors that may increase forest fire susceptibility in the study area. Those factors need to be better understood. Although selective logging affected the largest amount of natural forest in the study period, 35% and 28% of the observed losses of forest canopy cover were due to forest fire and selective logging combined and to forest fire only, respectively. Moreover, forest areas degraded by selective logging and forest fire is an addition to outright deforestation estimates and has yet to be accounted for by land use and land cover change assessments in tropical regions. Assuming that this observed trend of land use and land cover conversion continues, we predict that there will be no undisturbed forests remaining by 2011 in this study site. Finally, we estimated that 70% of the total forest area disturbed by logging and fire had sufficiently recovered to become undetectable using satellite data in 2004. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental diagnosis in areas with different use and occupation using the perception of diverse biological activity

In Brazil, the degradation of soil and landscape by urban and agricultural frontiers expansion leads to the need for comprehensive studies and consider the diverse biological activities generated from different interventions in the landscape, becoming an instrument for assessing the impacts and the decision for its environmental management. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of different forms of occupation of the landscape, considering ecological elements and their interactions. The work was carried out on the Instituto Agronômico in the county of Jundiai, in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The area under study has been subjected to different use and occupancy for a period of about 40 years. During this period the landscape has been transformed, with the current scenario can be classified as a degraded area mining; grassy area; Araucaria forest and pasture. These areas were evaluated by means of a transect, from which ten sampling sites were selected for the description of diverse biological activities, which included: evaluation and description of ground cover, identifying the presence of fungus and insect species. Furthermore, we evaluated in these points the pH, fertility and porosity of the topsoil (0-0.10 m). The results showed a variation of the elements analyzed and a relationship between the use and occupation of land in the different scenarios of the current landscape. The biological activity was more diverse in the Araucaria forest, reflected by the abundance of litter, higher content of organic matter and soil nutrients, demonstrating the effectiveness of the technique for assessing the level of degradation of the landscape used, which is expeditious and inexpensive.

Agroforestry in the Amazon Basin: practice, theory and limits of a promising land use

Includes bibliography