A conditional random field-based downscaling method for assessment of climate change impact on multisite daily precipitation in the Mahanadi basin

Downscaling to station-scale hydrologic variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) is usually necessary to assess the hydrologic impact of climate change. This work presents CRF-downscaling, a new probabilistic downscaling method that represents the daily precipitation sequence as a conditional random field (CRF). The conditional distribution of the precipitation sequence at a site, given the daily atmospheric (large-scale) variable sequence, is modeled as a linear chain CRF. CRFs do not make assumptions on independence of observations, which gives them flexibility in using high-dimensional feature vectors. Maximum likelihood parameter estimation for the model is performed using limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) optimization. Maximum a posteriori estimation is used to determine the most likely precipitation sequence for a given set of atmospheric input variables using the Viterbi algorithm. Direct classification of dry/wet days as well as precipitation amount is achieved within a single modeling framework. The model is used to project the future cumulative distribution function of precipitation. Uncertainty in precipitation prediction is addressed through a modified Viterbi algorithm that predicts the n most likely sequences. The model is applied for downscaling monsoon (June-September) daily precipitation at eight sites in the Mahanadi basin in Orissa, India, using the MIROC3.2 medium-resolution GCM. The predicted distributions at all sites show an increase in the number of wet days, and also an increase in wet day precipitation amounts. A comparison of current and future predicted probability density functions for daily precipitation shows a change in shape of the density function with decreasing probability of lower precipitation and increasing probability of higher precipitation.

Ethical Values and the Integrity of the Climate Change Regime

This book investigates the ethical values that inform the global carbon integrity system, and reflects on alternative norms that could or should do so. The global carbon integrity system comprises the emerging international architecture being built to respond to the climate change. This architecture can be understood as an 'integrity system'- an inter-related set of institutions, governance arrangements, regulations and practices that work to ensure the system performs its role faithfully and effectively. This volume investigates the ways ethical values impact on where and how the integrity system works, where it fails, and how it can be improved. With a wide array of perspectives across many disciplines, including ethicists, philosophers, lawyers, governance experts and political theorists, the chapters seek to explore the positive values driving the global climate change processes, to offer an understanding of the motivations justifying the creation of the regime and the way that social norms impact upon the operation of the integrity system. The collection focuses on the nexus between ideal ethics and real-world implementation through institutions and laws. The book will be of interest to policy makers, climate change experts, carbon taxation regulators, academics, legal practitioners and researchers.

Climate-change and agriculture - an indian perspective

In this paper, we examine the major predictions made so far regarding the nature of climate change and its impacts on our region in the light of the known errors of the set of models and the observations over this century. The major predictions of the climate models about the impact of increased concentration of greenhouse gases ave at variance with the observations over the Indian region during the last century characterized by such increases and global warming. It is important to note that as far as the Indian region is concerned, the impact of year-to-year variation of the monsoon will continue to be dominant over longer period changes even in the presence of global warming. Recent studies have also brought out the uncertainties in the yields simulated by crop models. It is suggested that a deeper understanding of the links between climate and agricultural productivity is essential for generating reliable predictions of impact of climate change. Such an insight is also required for identifying cropping patterns and management practices which are tailored for sustained maximum yield in the face of the vagaries of the monsoon.

Distribution of non-biting midges (Diptera, Chironomidae) in subarctic lakes of Finnish Lapland applications in lake classification and palaeolimnology

Climate change contributes directly or indirectly to changes in species distributions, and there is very high confidence that recent climate warming is already affecting ecosystems. The Arctic has already experienced the greatest regional warming in recent decades, and the trend is continuing. However, studies on the northern ecosystems are scarce compared to more southerly regions. Better understanding of the past and present environmental change is needed to be able to forecast the future. Multivariate methods were used to explore the distributional patterns of chironomids in 50 shallow (≤ 10m) lakes in relation to 24 variables determined in northern Fennoscandia at the ecotonal area from the boreal forest in the south to the orohemiarctic zone in the north. Highest taxon richness was noted at middle elevations around 400 m a.s.l. Significantly lower values were observed from cold lakes situated in the tundra zone. Lake water alkalinity had the strongest positive correlation with the taxon richness. Many taxa had preference for lakes either on tundra area or forested area. The variation in the chironomid abundance data was best correlated with sediment organic content (LOI), lake water total organic carbon content, pH and air temperature, with LOI being the strongest variable. Three major lake groups were separated on the basis of their chironomid assemblages: (i) small and shallow organic-rich lakes, (ii) large and base-rich lakes, and (iii) cold and clear oligotrophic tundra lakes. Environmental variables best discriminating the lake groups were LOI, taxon richness, and Mg. When repeated, this kind of an approach could be useful and efficient in monitoring the effects of global change on species ranges. Many species of fast spreading insects, including chironomids, show a remarkable ability to track environmental changes. Based on this ability, past environmental conditions have been reconstructed using their chitinous remains in the lake sediment profiles. In order to study the Holocene environmental history of subarctic aquatic systems, and quantitatively reconstruct the past temperatures at or near the treeline, long sediment cores covering the last 10000 years (the Holocene) were collected from three lakes. Lower temperature values than expected based on the presence of pine in the catchment during the mid-Holocene were reconstructed from a lake with great water volume and depth. The lake provided thermal refuge for profundal, cold adapted taxa during the warm period. In a shallow lake, the decrease in the reconstructed temperatures during the late Holocene may reflect the indirect response of the midges to climate change through, e.g., pH change. The results from three lakes indicated that the response of chironomids to climate have been more or less indirect. However, concurrent shifts in assemblages of chironomids and vegetation in two lakes during the Holocene time period indicated that the midges together with the terrestrial vegetation had responded to the same ultimate cause, which most likely was the Holocene climate change. This was also supported by the similarity in the long-term trends in faunal succession for the chironomid assemblages in several lakes in the area. In northern Finnish Lapland the distribution of chironomids were significantly correlated with physical and limnological factors that are most likely to change as a result of future climate change. The indirect and individualistic response of aquatic systems, as reconstructed using the chironomid assemblages, to the climate change in the past suggests that in the future, the lake ecosystems in the north do not respond in one predictable way to the global climate change. Lakes in the north may respond to global climate change in various ways that are dependent on the initial characters of the catchment area and the lake.

Carbon sequestration versus bioenergy: A case study from South India exploring the relative land-use efficiency of two options for climate change mitigation

This case study has been carried out as a comparison between two different land-use strategies for climate change mitigation, with possible application within the Clean Development Mechanisms. The benefits of afforestation for carbon sequestration versus for bioenergy production are compared in the context of development planning to meet increasing domestic and agricultural demand for electricity in Hosahalli village, Karnataka, India. One option is to increase the local biomass based electricity generation, requiring an increased biomass plantation area. This option is compared with fossil based electricity generation where the area is instead used for producing wood for non-energy purposes while also sequestering carbon in the soil and standing biomass. The different options have been assessed using the PRO-COMAP model. The ranking of the different options varies depending on the system boundaries and time period. Results indicate that, in the short term (30 years) perspective, the mitigation potential of the long rotation plantation is largest, followed by the short rotation plantation delivering wood for energy. The bioenergy option is however preferred if a long-term view is taken. Short rotation forests delivering wood for short-lived non-energy products have the smallest mitigation potential, unless a large share of the wood products are used for energy purposes (replacing fossil fuels) after having served their initial purpose. If managed in a sustainable manner all of these strategies can contribute to the improvement of the social and environmental situation of the local community. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Planning for climate change adaptation in a neoliberal context: Influences and responses

This thesis explores how planning policy and practice is responding to the challenge of climate change, particularly in contexts where neoliberal rationales and practices frame decision making. It documents patterns of devolving government responsibilities and experiences of market based mechanisms before reporting on institutional and professional responses to these conditions. The research centred on a qualitative case study and involved thematic content analysis of policy documents and informant interviews. The contribution of the research and thesis is to establish the outlook for climate change adaptation under neoliberal conditions, and to introduce strategies for planners operating within these conditions.

Investing in the future: Norway, climate change, and fossil fuel divestment

The fossil fuel divestment movement has undergone explosive growth over the last few years - expanding from encouraging educational institutions to adopt ethical investment policies to focusing upon cities, pension funds and philanthropic charities. The fossil fuel divestment movement has attained global ambitions - challenging sovereign wealth funds and national governments to engage in fossil fuel divestment, and pushing for fossil fuel divestment at international climate talks - such as the Paris Climate Summit in 2015. By exploring and analysing a key campaign to 'Divest Norway', this chapter considers the efforts to globalise and internationalise the fossil fuel divestment campaign. Part 1 explores the origins of the fossil fuel divestment movement, and the application of such strategies in a variety of contexts. Part 2 looks at the campaign to divest Norway's sovereign wealth fund of fossil fuel investments. There has been much discussion as to whether the bold decision of Norway to engage in coal divestment will encourage and inspire other sovereign wealth funds to engage in fossil fuel divestment. The conclusion considers the efforts to introduce fossil fuel divestment as a policy initiative for nation states as a policy option in international climate law.

Reservoir performance under uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change

Relatively few studies have addressed water management and adaptation measures in the face of changing water balances due to climate change. The current work studies climate change impact on a multipurpose reservoir performance and derives adaptive policies for possible futurescenarios. The method developed in this work is illustrated with a case study of Hirakud reservoir on the Mahanadi river in Orissa, India,which is a multipurpose reservoir serving flood control, irrigation and power generation. Climate change effects on annual hydropower generation and four performance indices (reliability with respect to three reservoir functions, viz. hydropower, irrigation and flood control, resiliency, vulnerability and deficit ratio with respect to hydropower) are studied. Outputs from three general circulation models (GCMs) for three scenarios each are downscaled to monsoon streamflow in the Mahanadi river for two future time slices, 2045-65 and 2075-95. Increased irrigation demands, rule curves dictated by increased need for flood storage and downscaled projections of streamflow from the ensemble of GCMs and scenarios are used for projecting future hydrologic scenarios. It is seen that hydropower generation and reliability with respect to hydropower and irrigation are likely to show a decrease in future in most scenarios, whereas the deficit ratio and vulnerability are likely to increase as a result of climate change if the standard operating policy (SOP) using current rule curves for flood protection is employed. An optimal monthly operating policy is then derived using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) as an adaptive policy for mitigating impacts of climate change on reservoir operation. The objective of this policy is to maximize reliabilities with respect to multiple reservoir functions of hydropower, irrigation and flood control. In variations to this adaptive policy, increasingly more weightage is given to the purpose of maximizing reliability with respect to hydropower for two extreme scenarios. It is seen that by marginally sacrificing reliability with respect to irrigation and flood control, hydropower reliability and generation can be increased for future scenarios. This suggests that reservoir rules for flood control may have to be revised in basins where climate change projects an increasing probability of droughts. However, it is also seen that power generation is unable to be restored to current levels, due in part to the large projected increases in irrigation demand. This suggests that future water balance deficits may limit the success of adaptive policy options. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trade wars in the TRIPS Council: Intellectual property, technology transfer, and climate change

This Chapter considers the geopolitical conflicts in respect of intellectual property, trade, and climate change in the TRIPS Agreement 1994 under the World Trade Organization (WTO). In particular, it focuses upon debates in the TRIPS Council on the topic of patent law and clean energy in 2013 and 2014. The chapter highlights the development agenda of a number of developing countries who are keen for access to clean energy to combat climate change and global warming. It also considers the mixed contributions of members of the BRICS/ BASIC group – including Brazil, India, China, and South Africa. This chapter highlights the intellectual property maximalist position of a number of developed countries on intellectual property, climate change, and trade. Seeking to overcome this conflict and stalemate, this Chapter puts forward both procedural and substantial reform options in respect of intellectual property, trade, and climate change in the TRIPS Council and the WTO. It also flags that the TRIPS Agreement 1994 could well be displaced by the rise of mega-regional trade agreements – such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).

Climate change and agriculture: theory and application of mitigation policies

Agriculture’s contribution to climate change is controversial as it is a significant source of greenhouse gases but also a sink of carbon. Hence its economic and technological potential to mitigate climate change have been argued to be noteworthy. However, social profitability of emission mitigation is a result from factors among emission reductions such as surface water quality impact or profit from production. Consequently, to value comprehensive results of agricultural climate emission mitigation practices, these co-effects to environment and economics should be taken into account. The objective of this thesis was to develop an integrated economic and ecological model to analyse the social welfare of crop cultivation in Finland on distinctive cultivation technologies, conventional tillage and conservation tillage (no-till). Further, we ask whether it would be privately or socially profitable to allocate some of barley cultivation for alternative land use, such as green set-aside or afforestation, when production costs, GHG’s and water quality impacts are taken into account. In the theoretical framework we depict the optimal input use and land allocation choices in terms of environmental impacts and profit from production and derive the optimal tax and payment policies for climate and water quality friendly land allocation. The empirical application of the model uses Finnish data about production cost and profit structure and environmental impacts. According to our results, given emission mitigation practices are not self-evidently beneficial for farmers or society. On the contrary, in some cases alternative land allocation could even reduce social welfare, profiting conventional crop cultivation. This is the case regarding mineral soils such as clay and silt soils. On organic agricultural soils, climate mitigation practices, in this case afforestation and green fallow give more promising results, decreasing climate emissions and nutrient runoff to water systems. No-till technology does not seem to profit climate mitigation although it does decrease other environmental impacts. Nevertheless, the data behind climate emission mitigation practices impact to production and climate is limited and partly contradictory. More specific experiment studies on interaction of emission mitigation practices and environment would be needed. Further study would be important. Particularly area specific production and environmental factors and also food security and safety and socio-economic impacts should be taken into account.

Mahanadi streamflow: climate change impact assessment and adaptive strategies

Impacts of climate change on hydrology are assessed by downscaling large scale general circulation model (GCM) outputs of climate variables to local scale hydrologic variables. This modelling approach is characterized by uncertainties resulting from the use of different models, different scenarios, etc. Modelling uncertainty in climate change impact assessment includes assigning weights to GCMs and scenarios, based on their performances, and providing weighted mean projection for the future. This projection is further used for water resources planning and adaptation to combat the adverse impacts of climate change. The present article summarizes the recent published work of the authors on uncertainty modelling and development of adaptation strategies to climate change for the Mahanadi river in India.

Importance of carbon dioxide physiological forcing to future climate change

An increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration influences climate both directly through its radiative effect (i.e., trapping longwave radiation) and indirectly through its physiological effect (i.e., reducing transpiration of land plants). Here we compare the climate response to radiative and physiological effects of increased CO2 using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) coupled Community Land and Community Atmosphere Model. In response to a doubling of CO2, the radiative effect of CO2 causes mean surface air temperature over land to increase by 2.86 ± 0.02 K (± 1 standard error), whereas the physiological effects of CO2 on land plants alone causes air temperature over land to increase by 0.42 ± 0.02 K. Combined, these two effects cause a land surface warming of 3.33 ± 0.03 K. The radiative effect of doubling CO2 increases global runoff by 5.2 ± 0.6%, primarily by increasing precipitation over the continents. The physiological effect increases runoff by 8.4 ± 0.6%, primarily by diminishing evapotranspiration from the continents. Combined, these two effects cause a 14.9 ± 0.7% increase in runoff. Relative humidity remains roughly constant in response to CO2-radiative forcing, whereas relative humidity over land decreases in response to CO2-physiological forcing as a result of reduced plant transpiration. Our study points to an emerging consensus that the physiological effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 on land plants will increase global warming beyond that caused by the radiative effects of CO2.

Agricultural expansion and climate change in the Taita Hills, Kenya: an assessment of potential environmental impacts

The indigenous cloud forests in the Taita Hills have suffered substantial degradation for several centuries due to agricultural expansion. Currently, only 1% of the original forested area remains preserved in this region. Furthermore, climate change imposes an imminent threat for local economy and environmental sustainability. In such circumstances, elaborating tools to conciliate socioeconomic growth and natural resources conservation is an enormous challenge. This dissertation tackles essential aspects for understanding the ongoing agricultural activities in the Taita Hills and their potential environmental consequences in the future. Initially, alternative methods were designed to improve our understanding of the ongoing agricultural activities. Namely, methods for agricultural survey planning and to estimate evapotranspiration were evaluated, taking into account a number of limitations regarding data and resources availability. Next, this dissertation evaluates how upcoming agricultural expansion, together with climate change, will affect the natural resources in the Taita Hills up to the year 2030. The driving forces of agricultural expansion in the region were identified as aiming to delineate future landscape scenarios and evaluate potential impacts from the soil and water conservation point of view. In order to investigate these issues and answer the research questions, this dissertation combined state of the art modelling tools with renowned statistical methods. The results indicate that, if current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. Although the simulated land use changes will certainly increase soil erosion figures, new croplands are likely to come up predominantly in the lowlands, which comprise areas with lower soil erosion potential. By 2030, rainfall erosivity is likely to increase during April and November due to climate change. Finally, this thesis addressed the potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate changes on Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR), which is considered another major issue in the context of the relations between land use and climate. Although the simulations indicate that climate change will likely increase annual volumes of rainfall during the following decades, IWR will continue to increase due to agricultural expansion. By 2030, new cropland areas may cause an increase of approximately 40% in the annual volume of water necessary for irrigation.

Religion´s role in Development, Ecology & Climate Change

Islam, Development, Ecology,