The British state and the Irish rebellion of 1916: an intelligence failure or an failure of response

The teleological narrative that has dominated the handling of intelligence by the British state in the events that led up to the 1916 Irish Rebellion in Dublin has been characterised as a cocktail of incompetence and mendacity. Using new and existing archive material this article argues that both the cabinet in London and key members of the Irish Executive in Dublin were supplied with accurate and timely intelligence by the Admiralty's signals intelligence unit, the Royal Irish Constabulary and the Dublin Metropolitan Police with respect to this event. Far from being a failure of intelligence here is evidence to show that there occurred a failure of response on behalf of key decision-makers. The warnings that were given by intelligence organisations were filtered through the existing policy preferences and assumptions. As a result of these factors accurate evaluations and sound judgement were not exercised by key officials, such as Sir Matthew Nathan, in Dublin Castle.

The Extras Regina, 2008

Project includes: a large scale live performance and resulting performance video, at Curtain Razors, Regina Queen’s Square, Regina, 2008 Live Performance, 45 mins, incl. 1 actor, 23 extras, 2 live cameras, live video and sound mixing, stage set, video projection. Video 45 mins Video Trailer 7 mins The Extras is a video performance referencing the form of a large live film shoot. The Extras contextualises contemporary Westerns genres within an experimental live tableau. The live performance and resulting 45 mins video make reference 19th century Western Author German Karl May, the tradition of Eastern European Western, (Red Western), Uranium exploitation and entrepreneurial cultures in the Canadian Prairies. Funded by the Canada Council for the Arts, Saskatchewan Arts Board and Curtain Razors, the Extras Regina was staged and performed at Central Plaza in Regina, with a crew of 23 extras, 2 live cameras, live video and sound mixing ad video projection. It involved research in Saskatchewan film and photographic archives. The performance was edited live and mixed with video material which was shot on location, with a further group of extras at historical historical ‘Western’ locations, including Fort Qu' Appelle, 
Castle Butte and Big Muddy. It also involved a collaboration with a local theatre production company, which enacted a dramatised historical incident.

‘The Making of the Book’: Roy Fisher, the Circle Press and the poetics of book art

Between 1972 and 2001, the English late-modernist poet Roy Fisher provided the text for nine separate artist's books produced by Ron King at the Circle Press. Taken together, as Andrew Lambirth has written, the Fisher-King collaborations represent a sustained investigation of the various ways in which text and image can be integrated, breaking the mould of the codex or folio edition, and turning the book into a sculptural object. From the three-dimensional pop-up designs of Bluebeard's Castle (1973), each representing a part of the edifice (the portcullis, the armoury and so on), to ‘alphabet books’ such as The Half-Year Letters (1983), held in an ingenious french-folded concertina which can be stretched to over a metre long or compacted to a pocketbook, the project of these art books is to complicate their own bibliographic codes, and rethink what a book can be. Their folds and reduplications give a material form to the processes by which meanings are produced: from the discovery, in Top Down, Bottom Up (1990), of how to draw on both sides of the page at the same time, to the developments of The Left-Handed Punch (1987) and Anansi Company (1992), where the book becomes first a four-dimensional theatre space, in which a new version of Punch and Judy is played out by twelve articulated puppets, and then a location for characters that are self-contained and removable, in the form of thirteen hand-made wire and card rod-puppets. Finally, in Tabernacle (2001), a seven-drawer black wooden cabinet that stands foursquare like a sculpture (and sells to galleries and collectors for over three thousand pounds), the conception of the book and the material history of print are fully undone and reconstituted. This paper analyses how the King-Fisher art books work out their radically material poetics of the book; how their emphasis on collaboration, between artist and poet, image and text, and also book and reader – the construction of meaning becoming a co-implicated process – continuously challenges hierarchies and fixities in our conception of authorship; and how they re-think the status of poetic text and the construction of the book as material object.

The Marlborough mound, Wiltshire. A further Neolithic monumental mound by the River Kennet.

Recent radiocarbon dates obtained from two soil cores taken through the Marlborough Castle mound, Wiltshire, show the main body of it to be a contemporaneous monument to Silbury Hill, dating to the second half of the 3rd millennium cal bc. In light of these dates, this paper considers the sequence identified within the cores, which includes two possible flood events early in the construction of the mound. It also describes four cores taken through the surrounding ditch, as well as small-scale work to the north-east of the mound. The topographic location of the mound in a low-lying area and close to rivers and springs is discussed, and the potential for Late Neolithic sites nearby is set out, with the land to the south of the mound identified as an area for future research. The paper ends with the prospect that other apparent mottes in Wiltshire and beyond may well also have prehistoric origins

Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?

We consider forecasting with factors, variables and both, modeling in-sample using Autometrics so all principal components and variables can be included jointly, while tackling multiple breaks by impulse-indicator saturation. A forecast-error taxonomy for factor models highlights the impacts of location shifts on forecast-error biases. Forecasting US GDP over 1-, 4- and 8-step horizons using the dataset from Stock and Watson (2009) updated to 2011:2 shows factor models are more useful for nowcasting or short-term forecasting, but their relative performance declines as the forecast horizon increases. Forecasts for GDP levels highlight the need for robust strategies, such as intercept corrections or differencing, when location shifts occur as in the recent financial crisis.

Robust approaches to forecasting

We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium-correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, impulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods are likely to perform well. The robust methods are applied to forecasting US GDP using autoregressive models, and also to autoregressive models with factors extracted from a large dataset of macroeconomic variables. We consider forecasting performance over the Great Recession, and over an earlier more quiescent period.

Landscape change in central Latvia since the Iron Age: multi-proxy analysis of the vegetation impact of conflict, colonization and economic expansion during the last 2000 years

This study represents the first detailed multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental investigation associated with a Late Iron Age lake-dwelling site in the eastern Baltic. The main objective was to reconstruct the environmental and vegetation dynamics associated with the establishment of the lake-dwelling and land-use during the last 2,000 years. A lacustrine sediment core located adjacent to a Late Iron Age lake-dwelling, medieval castle and Post-medieval manor was sampled in Lake Āraiši. The core was dated using spheroidal fly-ash particles and radiocarbon dating, and analysed in terms of pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, diatoms, loss-on-ignition, magnetic susceptibility and element geochemistry. Associations between pollen and other proxies were statistically tested. During ad 1–700, the vicinity of Lake Āraiši was covered by forests and human activities were only small-scale with the first appearance of cereal pollen (Triticum and Secale cereale) after ad 400. The most significant changes in vegetation and environment occurred with the establishment of the lake-dwelling around ad 780 when the immediate surroundings of the lake were cleared for agriculture, and within the lake there were increased nutrient levels. The highest accumulation rates of coprophilous fungi coincide with the occupation of the lake-dwelling from ad 780–1050, indicating that parts of the dwelling functioned as byres for livestock. The conquest of tribal lands during the crusades resulted in changes to the ownership, administration and organisation of the land, but our results indicate that the form and type of agriculture and land-use continued much as it had during the preceding Late Iron Age.

Palaeoenvironmental evidence for the impact of the crusades on the local and regional environment of medieval (13th–16th century) northern Latvia, eastern Baltic

This paper evaluates the impact of the crusades on the landscape and environment of northern Latvia between the 13th–16th centuries (medieval Livonia). The crusades replaced tribal societies in the eastern Baltic with a religious state (Ordenstaat) run by the military orders and their allies, accompanied by significant social, cultural and economic developments. These changes have previously received little consideration in palaeoenvironmental studies of past land use in the eastern Baltic region, but are fundamental to understanding the development and expansion of a European Christian identity. Sediment cores from Lake Trikāta, located adjacent to a medieval castle and settlement, were studied using pollen, macrofossils, loss-on-ignition and magnetic susceptibility. Our results show that despite continuous agricultural land use from 500 BC, the local landscape was still densely wooded until the start of the crusades in AD 1198 when a diversified pattern of pasture, meadow and arable land use was established. Colonisation followed the crusades, although in Livonia this occurred on a much smaller scale than in the rest of the Ordenstaat; Trikāta is atypical showing significant impact following the crusades with many other palaeoenvironmental studies only revealing more limited impact from the 14th century and later. Subsequent wars and changes in political control in the post-medieval period had little apparent effect on agricultural land use.

The Earls of Kildare and their books at the end of the Middle Ages

The two surviving inventories of the library of the Fitzgerald Earls of Kildare bear witness to a particularly large and diverse collection of books in the Earls' castle at Maynooth, Co. Kildare. Between them, the lists record well over one hundred separate items in four languages: Latin, French, English and Irish. This paper traces the history of the library and analyses the Fitzgeralds' particular interests as book collectors and as readers. It provides the first full published set of suggested identifications and bibliographical details for the books at Maynooth. It also includes a fresh transcription of the library lists and a discussion of the manuscript context in which they are preserved. Sources like the Kildare library lists provide valuable evidence for the potential circulation of a wide range of non-native manuscripts and prints in late-medieval Ireland.

Monuments, mobility and Medieval perceptions of designed landscapes: The Pleasance, Kenilworth

The Pleasance was a ’virandarium’ or pleasure garden, constructed by Henry V in the grounds of his castle at Kenilworth. Despite its high academic profile and the survival of well-preserved earthwork remains, the Pleasance has never previously been subjected to a programme of detailed archaeological survey and investigation. This article discusses the results of a new analytical earthwork survey undertaken by staff from English Heritage in 2012. It considers the contribution that these new findings make to the wider debate on medieval designed landscapes, with a particular focus on mobility and its role in unlocking the meaning and symbolism embedded in elite landscapes.

Bifurcations and bistability in cavity-assisted photoassociation of Bose-Einstein-condensed molecules

We study the photoassociation of Bose-Einstein condensed atoms into molecules using an optical cavity field. The driven cavity field introduces a dynamical degree of freedom into the photoassociation process, whose role in determining the stationary behavior has not previously been considered. The semiclassical stationary solutions for the atom and molecules as well as the intracavity field are found and their stability and scaling properties are determined in terms of experimentally controllable parameters including driving amplitude of the cavity and the nonlinear interactions between atoms and molecules. For weak cavity driving, we find a bifurcation in the atom and molecule number occurs that signals a transition from a stable steady state to nonlinear Rabi oscillations. For a strongly driven cavity, there exists bistability in the atom and molecule number.

Quantum control of electromagnetically induced transparency dispersion via atomic tunneling in a double-well Bose-Einstein condensate

Electromagnetically induced transparency (EIT) is an important tool for controlling light propagation and nonlinear wave mixing in atomic gases with potential applications ranging from quantum computing to table top tests of general relativity. Here we consider EIT in an atomic Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) trapped in a double-well potential. A weak probe laser propagates through one of the wells and interacts with atoms in a three-level Lambda configuration. The well through which the probe propagates is dressed by a strong control laser with Rabi frequency Omega(mu), as in standard EIT systems. Tunneling between the wells at the frequency g provides a coherent coupling between identical electronic states in the two wells, which leads to the formation of interwell dressed states. The macroscopic interwell coherence of the BEC wave function results in the formation of two ultranarrow absorption resonances for the probe field that are inside of the ordinary EIT transparency window. We show that these new resonances can be interpreted in terms of the interwell dressed states and the formation of a type of dark state involving the control laser and the interwell tunneling. To either side of these ultranarrow resonances there is normal dispersion with very large slope controlled by g. We discuss prospects for observing these ultranarrow resonances and the corresponding regions of high dispersion experimentally.